A 12 week longitudinal study of microbial translocation and systemic inflammation in undernourished HIV-infected Zambians initiating antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: Undernourished, HIV-infected adults in sub-Saharan Africa have high levels of systemic inflammation, which is a risk factor for mortality and other adverse health outcomes. We hypothesized that microbial translocation, due to the deleterious effects of HIV and poor nutrition on intestinal defenses and mucosal integrity, contributes to heightened systemic inflammation in this population, and reductions in inflammation on antiretroviral therapy (ART) accompany reductions in translocation. METHODS: HIV-infected, Zambian adults with a body mass index <18.5 kg/m2 were recruited for a pilot study to assess the relationships between microbial translocation and systemic inflammation over the first 12 weeks of ART. To assess microbial translocation we measured serum lipopolysaccharide binding protein (LBP), endotoxin core IgG and IgM, and soluble CD14, and to assess intestinal permeability we measured the urinary excretion of an oral lactulose dose normalized to urinary creatinine (Lac/Cr ratio). Linear mixed models were used to assess within-patient changes in these markers relative to serum C-reactive protein (CRP), tumor necrosis factor-α receptor 1 (TNF-α R1), and soluble CD163 over 12 weeks, in addition to relationships between variables independent of time point and adjusted for age, sex, and CD4+ count. RESULTS: Thirty-three participants had data from recruitment and at 12 weeks: 55% were male, median age was 36 years, and median baseline CD4+ count was 224 cells/μl. Over the first 12 weeks of ART, there were significant decreases in serum levels of LBP (median change -8.7 μg/ml, p = 0.01), TNF-α receptor 1 (-0.31 ng/ml, p < 0.01), and CRP (-3.5 mg/l, p = 0.02). The change in soluble CD14 level over 12 weeks was positively associated with the change in CRP (p < 0.01) and soluble CD163 (p < 0.01). Pooling data at baseline and 12 weeks, serum LBP was positively associated with CRP (p = 0.01), while endotoxin core IgM was inversely associated with CRP (p = 0.01) and TNF-α receptor 1 (p = 0.04). The Lac/Cr ratio was not associated with any serum biomarkers. CONCLUSIONS: In undernourished HIV-infected adults in Zambia, biomarkers of increased microbial translocation are associated with high levels of systemic inflammation before and after initiation of ART, suggesting that impaired gut immune defenses contribute to innate immune activation in this population

Modelling the impact of climate change on Tanzanian forests

This research article was published by Wiley Online Library in 2020Aim: Climate change is pressing extra strain on the already degraded forest eco system in Tanzania. However, it is mostly unknown how climate change will affect the distribution of forests in the future. We aimed to model the impacts of climate change on natural forests to help inform national-level conservation and mitigation strategies. Location: Tanzania. Methods: We conducted maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modelling to simulate forest habitat suitability using the Tanzanian national forest inventory survey (1,307 oc currences) and environmental data. Changes in forest habitats were simulated under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for 2055 and 2085. Results: The results indicate that climate change will threaten forest communities, especially fragmented strips of montane forests. Even under optimistic emission scenario, the extent of montane forest is projected to almost halve by 2085, inter secting many biodiversity hotspots across the Eastern Arc Mountains. Similarly, cli mate change is predicted to threaten microhabitat forests (i.e. thickets), with losses exceeding 70% by 2085 (RCP8.5). Other forest habitats are predicted to decrease (lowland forest and woodland) representing essential ecological networks, whereas suitable habitats for carbon-rich mangroves are predicted to expand by more than 40% at both scenarios. Conclusions: Climate change will impact forests by accelerating habitat loss, and fragmentation and the remaining land suitable for forests will also be subject to pres sures associated with rising demand for food and biofuels. These changes are likely to increase the probability of adverse impacts to the country's indigenous flora and fauna. Our findings, therefore, call for a shift in conservation efforts, focusing on (i) the enhanced management of existing protected areas that can absorb the impacts of future climate change, and (ii) expanding conservation efforts into newly suitable regions through effective land use planning and land reclamation, helping to preserve and enhance forest connectivity between fragmented patches

The charcoal trap: Miombo forests and the energy needs of people

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This study evaluates the carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas fluxes to the atmosphere resulting from charcoal production in Zambia. It combines new biomass and flux data from a study, that was conducted in a <it>miombo </it>woodland within the Kataba Forest Reserve in the Western Province of Zambia, with data from other studies.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The measurements at Kataba compared protected area (3 plots) with a highly disturbed plot outside the forest reserve and showed considerably reduced biomass after logging for charcoal production. The average aboveground biomass content of the reserve (Plots 2-4) was around 150 t ha^-1, while the disturbed plot only contained 24 t ha^-1. Soil carbon was not reduced significantly in the disturbed plot. Two years of eddy covariance measurements resulted in net ecosystem exchange values of -17 ± 31 g C m^-2y^-1, in the first and 90 ± 16 g C m^-2in the second year. Thus, on the basis of these two years of measurement, there is no evidence that the <it>miombo </it>woodland at Kataba represents a present-day carbon sink. At the country level, it is likely that deforestation for charcoal production currently leads to a per capita emission rate of 2 - 3 t CO₂y^-1. This is due to poor forest regeneration, although the resilience of <it>miombo </it>woodlands is high. Better post-harvest management could change this situation.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We argue that protection of <it>miombo </it>woodlands has to account for the energy demands of the population. The production at national scale that we estimated converts into 10,000 - 15,000 GWh y^-1of energy in the charcoal. The term "Charcoal Trap" we introduce, describes the fact that this energy supply has to be substituted when woodlands are protected. One possible solution, a shift in energy supply from charcoal to electricity, would reduce the pressure of forests but requires high investments into grid and power generation. Since Zambia currently cannot generate this money by itself, the country will remain locked in the charcoal trap such as many other of its African neighbours. The question arises whether and how money and technology transfer to increase regenerative electrical power generation should become part of a post-Kyoto process. Furthermore, better inventory data are urgently required to improve knowledge about the current state of the woodland usage and recovery. Net greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced substantially by improving the post-harvest management, charcoal production technology and/or providing alternative energy supply.</p

A network to understand the changing socio‐ecology of the southern African woodlands (SEOSAW): Challenges, benefits, and methods

Findings from the Socio-Ecological Observatory for the Southern African Woodlands (SEOSAW) will underpin the sustainability of two of the largest industries on the continent: wood fuels and timber. The article describes a new network of researchers’ (SEOSAW) work in long-term, in situ, measurements that will characterize the changing socio-ecology of the woodlands of southern Africa. These woodlands encompass the largest savanna in the world, hugely important to rural and urban livelihoods, but chronically under-studied. A new development is the use of data from permanent sample plots (PSP) in Bayesian model-data fusion analyses of ecosystem carbon cycles. The article includes an extensive bibliography.National Environmental Research Counci

More Stable Productivity of Semi Natural Grasslands than Sown Pastures in a Seasonally Dry Climate

In the Neotropics the predominant pathway to intensify productivity is generally thought to be to convert grasslands to sown pastures, mostly in monoculture. This article examines how above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP) in semi-natural grasslands and sown pastures in Central America respond to rainfall by: (i) assessing the relationships between ANPP and accumulated rainfall and indices of rainfall distribution, (ii) evaluating the variability of ANPP between and within seasons, and (iii) estimating the temporal stability of ANPP. We conducted sequential biomass harvests during 12 periods of 22 days and related those to rainfall. There were significant relationships between ANPP and cumulative rainfall in 22-day periods for both vegetation types and a model including a linear and quadratic term explained 74% of the variation in the data. There was also a significant correlation between ANPP and the number of rainfall events for both vegetation types. Sown pastures had higher ANPP increments per unit rainfall and higher ANPP at the peak of the rainy season than semi-natural grasslands. In contrast, semi-natural grasslands showed higher ANPP early in the dry season. The temporal stability of ANPP was higher in semi-natural grasslands than in the sown pastures in the dry season and over a whole annual cycle. Our results reveal that, contrary to conventional thinking amongst pasture scientists, there appears to be no increase in ANPP arising from replacing semi-natural grasslands with sown pastures under prevailing pasture management practices in seasonally dry climates, while the temporal distribution of ANPP is more even in semi-natural grasslands. Neither sown pastures nor semi-natural grasslands are productive towards the end of the dry season, indicating the potential importance of the widespread practice of retaining tree cover in pastures

Fire regimes and variability in aboveground woody biomass in miombo woodland

This study combined a process-based ecosystem model with a fire regime model to understand the effect of changes in fire regime and climate pattern on woody plants of miombo woodland in African savanna. Miombo woodland covers wide areas in Africa and is subject to frequent anthropogenic fires. The model was developed based on observations of tree topkill rates in individual tree size classes for fire intensity and resprouting. Using current and near-future climate patterns, the model simulated the dynamics of miombo woodland for various fire return intervals and grass cover fractions, allowing fire intensity to be estimated. There was a significant relationship between aboveground woody biomass and long-term fire regimes. An abrupt increase in fire intensity and/or fire frequency applied as a model forcing led to reduced long-term average aboveground woody biomass and mean tree size. Fire intensity increased with increasing living grass biomass (which provides increased flammable fuel), thereby affecting the relationship between fire regime and tree size, creating a demographic bottleneck on the route to tree maturity. For the current fire regime in miombo woodland, with a fire return interval of about 1.6-3 years, the model-predicted fire intensity lower than 930-1700 kW m-1 is necessary to maintain today's aboveground woody biomass under current climate conditions. Future climate change was predicted to have a significant positive effect on woody plants in miombo woodland associated with elevated CO2 concentration and warming, allowing woody plants to survive more effectively against periodic fires