Attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years caused by infections with antibiotic-resistant bacteria in the EU and the European Economic Area in 2015: a population-level modelling analysis

Background: Infections due to antibiotic-resistant bacteria are threatening modern health care. However, estimating their incidence, complications, and attributable mortality is challenging. We aimed to estimate the burden of infections caused by antibiotic-resistant bacteria of public health concern in countries of the EU and European Economic Area (EEA) in 2015, measured in number of cases, attributable deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Methods: We estimated the incidence of infections with 16 antibiotic resistance–bacterium combinations from European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network (EARS-Net) 2015 data that was country-corrected for population coverage. We multiplied the number of bloodstream infections (BSIs) by a conversion factor derived from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control point prevalence survey of health-care-associated infections in European acute care hospitals in 2011–12 to estimate the number of non-BSIs. We developed disease outcome models for five types of infection on the basis of systematic reviews of the literature. Findings: From EARS-Net data collected between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2015, we estimated 671 689 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 583 148–763 966) infections with antibiotic-resistant bacteria, of which 63·5% (426 277 of 671 689) were associated with health care. These infections accounted for an estimated 33 110 (28 480–38 430) attributable deaths and 874 541 (768 837–989 068) DALYs. The burden for the EU and EEA was highest in infants (aged <1 year) and people aged 65 years or older, had increased since 2007, and was highest in Italy and Greece. Interpretation: Our results present the health burden of five types of infection with antibiotic-resistant bacteria expressed, for the first time, in DALYs. The estimated burden of infections with antibiotic-resistant bacteria in the EU and EEA is substantial compared with that of other infectious diseases, and has increased since 2007. Our burden estimates provide useful information for public health decision-makers prioritising interventions for infectious diseases

MRSA surveillance programmes worldwide : moving towards a harmonised international approach

Multinational surveillance programmes for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) are dependent on national structures for data collection. This study aimed to capture the diversity of national MRSA surveillance programmes and to propose a framework for harmonisation of MRSA surveillance. The International Society of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy (ISAC) MRSA Working Group conducted a structured survey on MRSA surveillance programmes and organised a webinar to discuss the programmes’ strengths and challenges as well as guidelines for harmonisation. Completed surveys represented 24 MRSA surveillance programmes in 16 countries. Several countries reported separate epidemiological and microbiological surveillance. Informing clinicians and national policy-makers were the most common purposes of surveillance. Surveillance of bloodstream infections (BSIs) was present in all programmes. Other invasive infections were often included. Three countries reported active surveillance of MRSA carriage. Method- ology and reporting of antimicrobial susceptibility, virulence factors, molecular genotyping and epidemiological metadata varied greatly. Current MRSA surveillance programmes rely upon heterogeneous data collection systems, which hampers international epidemiological monitoring and research. To harmonise MRSA surveillance, we suggest improving the integration of microbiological and epidemiological data, implementation of central biobanks for MRSA isolate collection, and inclusion of a representative sample of skin and soft-tissue infection cases in addition to all BSI cases.peer-reviewe

Model-Informed Drug Development for Antimicrobials: Translational PK and PK/PD Modeling to Predict an Efficacious Human Dose for Apramycin

Apramycin represents a subclass of aminoglycoside antibiotics that has been shown to evade almost all mechanisms of clinically relevant aminoglycoside resistance. Model-informed drug development may facilitate its transition from preclinical to clinical phase. This study explored the potential of pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modeling to maximize the use of in vitro time-kill and in vivo preclinical data for prediction of a human efficacious dose (HED) for apramycin. PK model parameters of apramycin from four different species (mouse, rat, guinea pig, and dog) were allometrically scaled to humans. A semimechanistic PK/PD model was developed from the rich in vitro data on four Escherichia coli strains and subsequently the sparse in vivo efficacy data on the same strains were integrated. An efficacious human dose was predicted from the PK/PD model and compared with the classical PK/PD index methodology and the aminoglycoside dose similarity. One-compartment models described the PK data and human values for clearance and volume of distribution were predicted to 7.07 L/hour and 26.8 L, respectively. The required fAUC/MIC (area under the unbound drug concentration-time curve over MIC ratio) targets for stasis and 1-log kill in the thigh model were 34.5 and 76.2, respectively. The developed PK/PD model predicted the efficacy data well with strain-specific differences in susceptibility, maximum bacterial load, and resistance development. All three dose prediction approaches supported an apramycin daily dose of 30 mg/kg for a typical adult patient. The results indicate that the mechanistic PK/PD modeling approach can be suitable for HED prediction and serves to efficiently integrate all available efficacy data with potential to improve predictive capacity

Translational in vitro and in vivo PKPD modelling for apramycin against Gram-negative lung pathogens to facilitate prediction of human efficacious dose in pneumonia

Objectives: New drugs and methods to efficiently fight carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative pathogens are sorely needed. In this study we characterized the preclinical pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of the clinical-stage drug candidate apramycin in time kill and mouse lung infection models. Based on in vitro and in vivo data, we developed a mathematical model to predict human efficacy. Methods: Three pneumonia-inducing Gram-negative species Acinetobacter baumannii, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Klebsiella pneumoniae were studied. Bactericidal kinetics were evaluated with time-kill curves; in vivo pharmacokinetics were studied in healthy and infected mice, with sampling in plasma and epithelial lining fluid after subcutaneous administration; in vivo efficacy was measured in a neutropenic mouse pneumonia model. A pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model, integrating all the data, was developed and simulations were performed. Results: Good lung penetration of apramycin in epithelial lining fluid (ELF) was shown (AUCELF/AUCplasma = 88%). Plasma clearance was 48% lower in lung infected mice compared to healthy mice. For two out of five strains studied, a delay in growth (∼5h) was observed in vivo but not in vitro. The mathematical model enabled integration of lung pharmacokinetics to drive mouse PKPD. Simulations predicted that 30 mg/kg of apramycin once daily would result in bacteriostasis in patients. Conclusion: Apramycin is a candidate for treatment of carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative pneumonia as demonstrated in an integrated modeling framework for three bacterial species. We show that mathematical modelling is a useful tool for simultaneous inclusion of multiple data sources, notably plasma and lung in vivo PK and simulation of expected scenarios in a clinical setting, notably lung infections

Occurrence of carbapenemase-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae and Escherichia coli in the European survey of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (EuSCAPE): a prospective, multinational study

Background Gaps in the diagnostic capacity and heterogeneity of national surveillance and reporting standards in Europe make it difficult to contain carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae. We report the development of a consistent sampling framework and the results of the first structured survey on the occurrence of carbapenemase-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae and Escherichia coli in European hospitals. Methods National expert laboratories recruited hospitals with diagnostic capacities, who collected the first ten carbapenem non-susceptible clinical isolates of K pneumoniae or E coli and ten susceptible same-species comparator isolates and pertinent patient and hospital information. Isolates and data were relayed back to national expert laboratories, which made laboratory-substantiated information available for central analysis. Findings Between Nov 1, 2013, and April 30, 2014, 455 sentinel hospitals in 36 countries submitted 2703 clinical isolates (2301 [85%] Kpneurnoniae and 402 (15%) Ecoli). 850 (37%) of 2301 Kpneumoniae samples and 77 (19%) of 402 Ecoli samples were carbapenemase (KPC, NDM, OXA-48-like, or VIM) producers. The ratio of K pneumoniae to E coli was 11:1.1.3 patients per 10000 hospital admissions had positive clinical specimens. Prevalence differed greatly, with the highest rates in Mediterranean and Balkan countries. Carbapenemase-producing K pneumoniae isolates showed high resistance to last-line antibiotics. Interpretation This initiative shows an encouraging commitment by all participants, and suggests that challenges in the establishment of a continent-wide enhanced sentinel surveillance for carbapenemase-producing Entero-bacteriaeceae can be overcome. Strengthening infection control efforts in hospitals is crucial for controlling spread through local and national health care networks