Contribution of water-limited ecoregions to their own supply of rainfall

The occurrence of wet and dry growing seasons in water-limited regions remains poorly understood, partly due to the complex role that these regions play in the genesis of their own rainfall. This limits the predictability of global carbon and water budgets, and hinders the regional management of naturalresources. Using novel satellite observations and atmospheric trajectory modelling, we unravel the origin and immediate drivers of growing-season precipitation, and the extent to which ecoregions themselves contribute to their own supply of rainfall. Results show that persistent anomalies in growing-season precipitation—and subsequent biomass anomalies—are caused by a complex interplay of land and ocean evaporation, air circulation and local atmospheric stability changes. For regions such as the Kalahari and Australia, the volumes of moisture recycling decline in dry years, providing a positive feedback that intensifies dry conditions. However, recycling ratios increase up to40%, pointing to the crucial role of these regions in generating their own supply of rainfall; transpiration in periods of water stress allows vegetation to partly offset the decrease in regional precipitation. Findings highlight the need to adequately represent vegetation–atmosphere feedbacks in models to predict biomass changes and to simulate the fate of water-limited regions in our warming climate

Mapping Surface Cover Parameters Using Aggregation Rules and Remotely Sensed Cover Classes

A coupled model, which combines the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) with an advanced atmospheric boundary-layer model, was used to validate hypothetical aggregation rules for BATS-specific surface cover parameters. The model was initialized and tested with observations from the Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observational Study and used to simulate surface fluxes for rain forest and pasture mixes at a site near Manaus in Brazil. The aggregation rules are shown to estimate parameters which give area-average surface fluxes similar to those calculated with explicit representation of forest and pasture patches for a range of meteorological and surface conditions relevant to this site, but the agreement deteriorates somewhat when there are large patch-to-patch differences in soil moisture. The aggregation rules, validated as above, were then applied to remotely sensed 1 km land cover data set to obtain grid-average values of BATS vegetation parameters for 2.8 deg x 2.8 deg and 1 deg x 1 deg grids within the conterminous United States. There are significant differences in key vegetation parameters (aerodynamic roughness length, albedo, leaf area index, and stomatal resistance) when aggregate parameters are compared to parameters for the single, dominant cover within the grid. However, the surface energy fluxes calculated by stand-alone BATS with the 2-year forcing, data from the International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) CDROM were reasonably similar using aggregate-vegetation parameters and dominant-cover parameters, but there were some significant differences, particularly in the western USA

Filtration artefacts in bacterial community composition can affect the outcome of dissolved organic matter biolability assays

Inland waters are large contributors to global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, in part due to the vulnerability of dissolved organic matter (DOM) to microbial decomposition and respiration to CO2 during transport through aquatic systems. To assess the degree of this vulnerability, aquatic DOM is often incubated in standardized biolability assays. These assays isolate the dissolved fraction of aquatic OM by size filtration prior to incubation. We test whether this size selection has an impact on the bacterial community composition and the consequent dynamics of DOM degradation using three different filtration strategies: 0.2 μm (filtered and inoculated), 0.7 μm (generally the most common DOM filter size) and 106 μm (unfiltered). We found that bacterial community composition, based on 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing, was significantly affected by the different filter sizes. At the same time, the filtration strategy also affected the DOM degradation dynamics, including the δ13C signature. However, the dynamics of these two responses were decoupled, suggesting that filtration primarily influences biolability assays through bacterial abundance and the presence of their associated predators. By the end of the 41-day incubations all treatments tended to converge on a common total DOM biolability level, with the 0.7 μm filtered incubations reaching this point the quickest. These results suggest that assays used to assess the total biolability of aquatic DOM should last long enough to remove filtration artefacts in the microbial population. Filtration strategy should also be taken into account when comparing results across biolability assays

What eddy-covariance measurements tell us about prior land flux errors in CO2-flux inversion schemes

0.2 after 200 km). Separating out the plant functional types did not increase the spatial correlations, except for the deciduous broad-leaved forests. Using the statistics of the flux measurements as a proxy for the statistics of the prior flux errors was shown not to be a viable approach. A statistical model allowed us to upscale the site-level flux error statistics to the coarser spatial and temporal resolutions used in regional or global models. This approach allowed us to quantify how aggregation reduces error variances, while increasing correlations. As an example, for a typical inversion of grid point (300 km × 300 km) monthly fluxes, we found that the prior flux error follows an approximate e-folding correlation length of 500 km only, with correlations from one month to the next as large as 0.6

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textabstractIntroduction: Approximately 30 % of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) patients fail to respond to anti-TNF treatment. When clinical remission is induced, some patients relapse after treatment has been stopped.We tested the predictive value of MRP8/14 serum levels to identify responders to treatment and relapse after discontinuation of therapy.Methods: Samples from 88 non-systemic JIA patients who started and 26 patients who discontinued TNF-blockers were analyzed.MRP8/14 serum levels were measured by in-house MRP8/14 ELISA and by Bühlmann Calprotectin ELISA at start of anti-TNF treatment, within 6 months after start and at discontinuation of etanercept in clinical remission.Patients were categorized into responders (ACRpedi ≥ 50 and/or inactive disease) and non-responders (ACRpedi < 50) within six months after start, response was evaluated by change in JADAS-10.Disease activity was assessed within six months after discontinuation.Results: Baseline MRP8/14 levels were higher in responders (median MRP8/14 of 1466 ng/ml (IQR 1045-3170)) compared to non-responders (median MRP8/14 of 812 (IQR 570-1178), p < 0.001).Levels decreased after start of treatment only in responders (p < 0.001).Change in JADAS-10 was correlated with baseline MRP8/14 levels (Spearman's rho 0.361, p = 0.001).Patients who flared within 6 months after treatment discontinuation had higher MRP8/14 levels (p = 0.031, median 1025 ng/ml (IQR 588-1288)) compared to patients with stable remission (505 ng/ml (IQR 346-778)).Results were confirmed by Bühlmann ELISA with high reproducibility but different overall levels.Conclusion: High levels of baseline MRP8/14 are associated with good response to anti-TNF treatment, whereas elevated MRP8/14 levels at discontinuation of etanercept are associated with higher chance to flare

What eddy-covariance measurements tell us about prior land flux errors in CO₂-flux inversion schemes

To guide the future development of CO₂-atmospheric inversion modeling systems, we analyzed the errors arising from prior information about terrestrial ecosystem fluxes. We compared the surface fluxes calculated by a process-based terrestrial ecosystem model with daily averages of CO₂ flux measurements at 156 sites across the world in the FLUXNET network. At the daily scale, the standard deviation of the model-data fit was 2.5 gC·m⁻²·d⁻¹; temporal autocorrelations were significant at the weekly scale (>0.3 for lags less than four weeks), while spatial correlations were confined to within the first few hundred kilometers (<0.2 after 200 km). Separating out the plant functional types did not increase the spatial correlations, except for the deciduous broad-leaved forests. Using the statistics of the flux measurements as a proxy for the statistics of the prior flux errors was shown not to be a viable approach. A statistical model allowed us to upscale the site-level flux error statistics to the coarser spatial and temporal resolutions used in regional or global models. This approach allowed us to quantify how aggregation reduces error variances, while increasing correlations. As an example, for a typical inversion of grid point (300 km × 300 km) monthly fluxes, we found that the prior flux error follows an approximate e-folding correlation length of 500 km only, with correlations from one month to the next as large as 0.6

CO2: An operational anthropogenic CO2 emissions monitoring & verification support capacity

This is the third report form the CO2 Monitoring Task Force on the multiple input streams of in-situ observations that are requirement for the Copernicus CO2 Monitoring and Verification Support capacity to: (i) calibrated and validate the space component, (ii) assimilate data in the models and integrate information in the core of the system, and (iii) evaluate the output generated by the system for its end users. The availability of sustained in situ networks is currently a significant factor of risk that needs to be mitigated to establish a European CO 2 support capacity which is fit-for-purpose. The current status of existing networks may be the source of large uncertainties in anthropogenic CO2 emission estimates as well as limited capability in meeting the requirements for country, large city and point source scale assessments. This conclusion results from a risk analysis formulated for four scenarios: 1) maintaining the status quo, 2) assuring sustained funding for the status quo, 3) enhancing network capabilities at European scale with sustained funding and 4) with a significantly improved in situ infrastructure in Europe and beyond. This report substantiates the multifaceted needs and requirements of the European CO2 support capacity with respect to in situ observations. The analysis concerns all core elements of the envisaged integrated system with a particular attention on the impact of such observations in achieving the proposed objectives. The specific needs for the validation of products delivered by the space component that is, the Copernicus Sentinels CO2 monitoring constellation, are addressed as another prerequisite for the success of the CO2 support capacity. This European asset will represent a significant contribution to the virtual constellation proposed by the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) and, accordingly, complementary requirements are elaborated in that international frame. The report highlights that although high measurement standards are present within existing networks such as ICOS, in the context of the needs for targeted in situ data for the realization of the operational system, these data are not fully fit-for-purpose. A fundamental prerequisite is to have a good geographical coverage over Europe for evaluating the data assimilation and modeling system over a large variety of environmental conditions such as, for instance, urban areas, agricultural regions, forested zones and industrial complexes. The in situ observations need to be extended under a coordinated European lead with sustained infrastructure and targeted additional and maintained long-term funding. It has been clearly understood from the onset that the international dimension of the European CO2 support capacity would be critical and that these aspects should be developed in parallel to, and in synergy with the definition and implementation of a European contributing system. It was also understood that this international dimension had both strategic, policy relevant and technical dimensions and the Commission and the relevant European institutional partners have started since several years to engage both bilaterally and multilaterally with the relevant stakeholders and counterparts to develop these relations. Specifically, CEOS will undertake, over the next few years, dedicated preparatory work in a coordinated international context, to provide cumulative added value to the specific programmatic activities of their member agencies. Concerted efforts have already begun in the context of the European Commission's Chairmanship of CEOS in 2018. It is recognized in the context of the European efforts, and increasingly by our international counterparts that a broad and holistic system approach is required to address the requirements which are represented by the climate policy, of which the satellite component, whilst important, cannot effectively be developed in isolation. This system indeed includes the satellite observing capability but in addition, the required modelling component and data integration elements, prior information, ancillary data and in situ observations delivered by essential networks. Acknowledging the need for an efficient coordination at international level for instance via the Global Atmosphere Watch programme of the World Meteorological Organisation is a key towards a successful implementation of appropriate actions to ensure the sustainability of essential networks, to enhance current network capabilities with new observations and to propose adequate governance schemes. Such actions to mitigate current network limitations are deemed critical to implementing the Copernicus CO 2 Monitoring & Verification Support capacity in its full strength.JRC.D.6-Knowledge for Sustainable Development and Food Securit