Aid, policies, and growth : revisiting the evidence

The authors revisit the relationship between aid and growth using a new data set focusing on the 1990s. The evidence supports the view that the impact of aid depends on the quality of state institutions and policies. The authors use an overall measure of institutions and policies popular in the empirical growth literature. The interaction of aid and institutional quality has a robust positive relationship with growth that is strongest in instrumental variable regressions. There is no support for the competing hypothesis that aid has the same positive effect everywhere.The authors also show that in the 1990s the allocation of aid to low-income countries favored those with better institutional quality. This"selectivity"is sensible if aid in fact is more productive in sound institutional and policy environments. The cross-country evidence on aid effectiveness is supported by other types of information as well: case studies, project-level evidence, and opinion polls support the view that corrupt institutions and weak policies limit the impact of financial assistance for development.Decentralization,Health Economics&Finance,Development Economics&Aid Effectiveness,Gender and Development,School Health,Governance Indicators,Achieving Shared Growth,Development Economics&Aid Effectiveness,Public Institution Analysis&Assessment,School Health

Aid, policies, and growth

The authors of this paper use a new database on foreign aid to examine the relationships among foreign aid, economic policies, and growth of per capita GDP. In panel growth regressions for 56 developing countries and 6 four-year periods (1970-93), they find that the policies that have a great effect on growth are those related to fiscal surplus, inflation, and trade openness. They construct an index for those three policies and have that index interact with foreign aid. They have instruments for both aid and aid interacting with policies. They find that aid has a positive impact on growth in developing countries with good fiscal, monetary and trade policies. In the presence of poor policies, aid has no positive effect on growth. This result is robust in a variety of specifications, which include or exclude middle-income countries, include or exclude outliers, and treat policies as exogenous or endogenous. They examine the determinants of policy and find no evidence that aid has systematically affected policies, either for good or for ill. They estimate an aid allocation equation and show that any tendency for aid to reward good policies has been overwhelmed by donors'pursuit of their own strategic interests. In a counterfactual, they reallocate aid, reduce the role of donor interests and increasing the importance of policy. Such a reallocation would have a large positive effect on developing countries'growth rates.Gender and Development,Development Economics&Aid Effectiveness,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,School Health,Achieving Shared Growth,Governance Indicators,Inequality,Economic Theory&Research,Development Economics&Aid Effectiveness

Aid, the incentive regime, and poverty reduction

Spurring growth in the developing world is one stated objective of foreign aid. Another, more commonly cited, objective is reducing poverty. Generally poverty reduction and growth go hand in hand, but could aid mitigate poverty without measurably affecting growth? The authors examine how foreign aid affects infant mortality -- an important social indicator that provides indirect evidence that the benefits of development are reaching people everywhere. They conclude that in developing countries with weak economic management -- evidenced by poor property rights, high levels of corruption, closed trade regimes, and macroeconomic instability -- there is no relationship between aid and the change in infant mortality. In distorted environments, development projects promoted by donors tend to fail. And aid resources are typically fungible, so the aid does not in fact finance these projects. Aid finances the whole public sector at the margin, which is why the quality of management is the key to effective assistance. A government that cannot put effective development policies in place is unlikely to oversee the effective use of foreign aid. On the other hand, there is a relationship between aid and a change in infant mortality when the recipient country has relatively good management. When management is good, additional aid worth 1 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has a powerful effect, reducing infant mortality by 0.9 percent. In other words, aid spurs growth and improvements in social indicators only in a good policy environment. These findings strengthen the case for targeting foreign aid to countries that have improved their economic policy. But after controlling for per capita income and population, there has been almost no relationship between countries'economic policies and the amount of aid they get. The relatively indiscriminate allocation of assistance is one factor undermining the potential impact of aid.Labor Policies,Public Health Promotion,Health Economics&Finance,Environmental Economics&Policies,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Achieving Shared Growth,Health Economics&Finance,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Governance Indicators,Inequality

Foreign capital in a growth model

Within an endogenous growth framework, this paper empirically investigates the impact of financial capital on economic growth for a panel of 60 developing countries, through the channel of domestic capital formation. By estimating the model for different income groups, it is found that while private FDI flows exert beneficial complementarity effects on the domestic capital formation across all income-group countries, the official financial flows contribute to increasing investment in the middle income economies, but not in the low income countries. The latter appears to demonstrate that the aid-growth nexus is supported in the middle income countries, whereas the misallocation of official inflows is more likely to exist in the low income countries, suggesting that aid effectiveness remains conditional on the domestic policy environment

Growth by destination: the role of trade in Africa's recent growth episode

Over the period 1990–2009, Africa has experienced a distinct and favourable reversal in its growth fortunes in stark contrast to its performance in the preceding decades, leading to a variety of hypotheses seeking to explain the phenomenon. This paper presents both cross-country and panel-data evidence on the causal factors driving the recent turnaround in Africa's growth and takes the unique approach of disaggregating the separate growth impacts of Africa's bilateral trade with: China, Europe and America. The empirical analysis presented in this paper suggests that the primary and most robust causal factors driving Africa's recent growth turnaround are private sector- and foreign direct investment. Although empirical evidence of the role of bilateral trade openness in Africa's recent growth emerges within a fixed effect estimation setting, these results are not as robust when endogeneity and other issues are fully accounted for. Among the three major bilateral partners, Africa's bilateral trade with China has been a relatively important factor spurring growth on the continent and especially so in resource-rich, oil producing and non-landlocked countries. The econometric results are not as supportive of growth-inducing effects of foreign aid. These findings emerge after applying a variety of panel data specifications to the data, including the recent fixed Effects Filtered (FEF) estimator introduced by Pesaran and Zhou (2014) and the dynamic panel Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator, which allows for endogeneity between trade and growth

A New Approach to the Allocation of Aid among Developing Countries: Is the USA Different from the Rest?

This paper attempts to explain the factors that determine the geographical allocation of foreign aid. Its novelty is that it develops a rigorous theoretical model and conducts the corresponding empirical investigations based on a large panel dataset. We run regressions for different major donors (United States, Canada, France, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, and multilateral organizations) with the explicit objective of establishing whether the United States, in light of its geopolitical hegemony, behaves differently from others. We find that all the donors respond to recipient need in their allocation of aid, but that the United States puts less emphasis on this than the other donors with the exception of Japan. We also find that the United States puts more emphasis on donor–recipient linkages than do the other donors suggesting that the United States attaches greater importance to issues of donor interest, for example, geopolitical, commercial, and other links with specific recipients

Tracking Official Development Assistance for Reproductive Health in Conflict-Affected Countries

Preeti Patel and colleagues report inequity in the disbursement of official development assistance for reproductive health between countries affected by conflict and those unaffected