Spatio-temporal cluster analysis of county-based human West Nile virus incidence in the continental United States

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>West Nile virus (WNV) is a vector-borne illness that can severely affect human health. After introduction on the East Coast in 1999, the virus quickly spread and became established across the continental United States. However, there have been significant variations in levels of human WNV incidence spatially and temporally. In order to quantify these variations, we used Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic and Anselin's Local Moran's I statistic to uncover spatial clustering of human WNV incidence at the county level in the continental United States from 2002–2008. These two methods were applied with varying analysis thresholds in order to evaluate sensitivity of clusters identified.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The spatial scan and Local Moran's I statistics revealed several consistent, important clusters or hot-spots with significant year-to-year variation. In 2002, before the pathogen had spread throughout the country, there were significant regional clusters in the upper Midwest and in Louisiana and Mississippi. The largest and most consistent area of clustering throughout the study period was in the Northern Great Plains region including large portions of Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota, and significant sections of Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana. In 2006, a very strong cluster centered in southwest Idaho was prominent. Both the spatial scan statistic and the Local Moran's I statistic were sensitive to the choice of input parameters.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Significant spatial clustering of human WNV incidence has been demonstrated in the continental United States from 2002–2008. The two techniques were not always consistent in the location and size of clusters identified. Although there was significant inter-annual variation, consistent areas of clustering, with the most persistent and evident being in the Northern Great Plains, were demonstrated. Given the wide variety of mosquito species responsible and the environmental conditions they require, further spatio-temporal clustering analyses on a regional level is warranted.</p

The blue-edge problem of the V1093 Her instability strip revisited using evolutionary models with atomic diffusion

We have computed a new grid of evolutionary subdwarf B star (sdB) models from the start of central He burning, taking into account atomic diffusion due to radiative levitation, gravitational settling, concentration diffusion, and thermal diffusion. We have computed the non-adiabatic pulsation properties of the models and present the predicted p-mode and g-mode instability strips. In previous studies of the sdB instability strips, artificial abundance enhancements of Fe and Ni were introduced in the pulsation driving layers. In our models, the abundance enhancements of Fe and Ni occur naturally, eradicating the need to use artificial enhancements. We find that the abundance increases of Fe and Ni were previously underestimated and show that the instability strip predicted by our simulations solves the so-called blue edge problem of the subdwarf B star g-mode instability strip. The hottest known g-mode pulsator, KIC 10139564, now resides well within the instability strip {even when only modes with low spherical degrees (l<=2) are considered.Comment: 7 pages, 7 figures. Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Testing the asymptotic relation for period spacings from mixed modes of red giants observed with the Kepler mission

Dipole mixed pulsation modes of consecutive radial order have been detected for thousands of low-mass red-giant stars with the NASA space telescope Kepler. Such modes have the potential to reveal information on the physics of the deep stellar interior. Different methods have been proposed to derive an observed value for the gravity-mode period spacing, the most prominent one relying on a relation derived from asymptotic pulsation theory applied to the gravity-mode character of the mixed modes. Our aim is to compare results based on this asymptotic relation with those derived from an empirical approach for three pulsating red-giant stars. We developed a data-driven method to perform frequency extraction and mode identification. Next, we used the identified dipole mixed modes to determine the gravity-mode period spacing by means of an empirical method and by means of the asymptotic relation. In our methodology, we consider the phase offset, $\epsilon_{\mathrm{g}}$, of the asymptotic relation as a free parameter. Using the frequencies of the identified dipole mixed modes for each star in the sample, we derived a value for the gravity-mode period spacing using the two different methods. These differ by less than 5%. The average precision we achieved for the period spacing derived from the asymptotic relation is better than 1%, while that of our data-driven approach is 3%. Good agreement is found between values for the period spacing derived from the asymptotic relation and from the empirical method. Full abstract in PDF file.Comment: 14 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in A&

Ecological Niche Modeling of Potential West Nile Virus Vector Mosquito Species in Iowa

Ecological niche modeling (ENM) algorithms, Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modeling (Maxent) and Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP), were used to develop models in Iowa for three species of mosquito — two significant, extant West Nile virus (WNV) vectors (Culex pipiens L and Culex tarsalis Coquillett (Diptera: Culicidae)), and the nuisance mosquito, Aedes vexans Meigen (Diptera: Culicidae), a potential WNV bridge vector. Occurrence data for the three mosquito species from a state-wide arbovirus surveillance program were used in combination with climatic and landscape layers. Maxent successfully created more appropriate niche models with greater accuracy than GARP. The three Maxent species' models were combined and the average values were statistically compared to human WNV incidence at the census block group level. The results showed that the Maxent-modeled species' niches averaged together were a useful indicator of WNV human incidence in the state of Iowa. This simple method for creating probability distribution maps proved useful for understanding WNV dynamics and could be applied to the study of other vector-borne diseases

Novel methods for spatial prediction of soil functions within landscapes (SP0531)

Previous studies showed that soil patterns could be predicted in agriculturally managed landscapes by modelling and extrapolating from extensive existing but related integrated datasets. Based on these results we proposed to develop and apply predictive models of the relationships between environmental data and known soil patterns to predict capacity for key soil functions within diverse landscapes for which there is little detailed underpinning soil information available. Objectives were: To develop a high-level framework in which the non-specialist user-community could explore questions. To generate digital soil maps for three selected catchments at a target resolution of 1:50000 to provide the base information for soil function prediction. To use a modelling approach to predict the performance of key soil functions in catchments undergoing change but where only sparse or low resolution soil survey data are available. To use a modelling approach to assess the impact of different management scenarios and/or environmental conditions on the delivery of multiple soil functions within a catchment. To create a detailed outline of the requirements for ground-truthing to test the predicted model outputs at a catchment scale. To contribute to the development of a high-level framework for decision makers

Web-Based Spatial Decision Support System and Watershed Management with a Case Study

In order to maintain a proper balance between development pressure and water resources protection, and also to improve public participation, efficient tools and techniques for soil and water conservation projects are needed. This paper describes the development and application of a web-based watershed management spatial decision support system, WebWMPI. The WebWMPI uses the Watershed Management Priority Indices (WMPI) approach which is a prioritizing method for watershed management planning and it integrates land use/cover, hydrological data, soils, slope, roads, and other spatial data. The land is divided into three categories: Conservation Priority Index (CPI) land, Restoration Priority Index (RPI) land, and Stormwater Management Priority Index (SMPI) land. Within each category, spatial factors are rated based on their influence on water resources and critical areas can be identified for soil conservation, water quality protection and improvement. The WebWMPI has user-friendly client side graphical interfaces which enable the public to interactively run the server side Geographic Information System to evaluate different scenarios for watershed planning and management. The system was applied for Dry Run Creek watershed (Cedar Falls, Iowa, US) as a demonstration and it can be easily used in other watersheds to prioritize crucial areas and to increase public participation for soil and water conservation projects

E´ chelle diagrams and period spacings of g modes in: Doradus stars from four years of Kepler observations

We use photometry from the Kepler Mission to study oscillations in Doradus stars. Some stars show remarkably clear sequences of g modes and we use period ´echelle diagrams to measure period spacings and identifyrotationally split multiplets with ` = 1 and ` = 2.We find small deviations from regular period spacings that arise from the gradient in the chemical composition just outside the convective core. We also find stars for which the period spacing shows a strong linear trend as a function of period, consistent with relatively rapid rotation. Overall, th

An asteroseismic study of the O9V star HD 46202 from CoRoT space-based photometry

The O9V star HD 46202, which is a member of the young open cluster NGC 2244, was observed by the CoRoT satellite in October/November 2008 during a short run of 34 days. From the very high-precision light curve, we clearly detect beta Cep-like pulsation frequencies with amplitudes of ~0.1 mmag and below. A comparison with stellar models was performed using a chi^2 as a measure for the goodness-of-fit between the observed and theoretically computed frequencies. The physical parameters of our best-fitting models are compatible with the ones deduced spectroscopically. A core overshooting parameter alpha_ov = 0.10 +- 0.05 pressure scale height is required. None of the observed frequencies are theoretically excited with the input physics used in our study. More theoretical work is thus needed to overcome this shortcoming in how we understand the excitation mechanism of pulsation modes in such a massive star. A similar excitation problem has also been encountered for certain pulsation modes in beta Cep stars recently modelled asteroseismically.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics on 17/12/2010, 9 pages, 7 figures, 4 table

The CoRoT B-type binary HD50230: a prototypical hybrid pulsator with g-mode period and p-mode frequency spacings

B-type stars are promising targets for asteroseismic modelling, since their frequency spectrum is relatively simple. We deduce and summarise observational constraints for the hybrid pulsator, HD50230, earlier reported to have deviations from a uniform period spacing of its gravity modes. The combination of spectra and a high-quality light curve measured by the CoRoT satellite allow a combined approach to fix the position of HD50230 in the HR diagram. To describe the observed pulsations, classical Fourier analysis was combined with short-time Fourier transformations and frequency spacing analysis techniques. Visual spectra were used to constrain the projected rotation rate of the star and the fundamental parameters of the target. In a first approximation, the combined information was used to interpret multiplets and spacings to infer the true surface rotation rate and a rough estimate of the inclination angle. We identify HD50230 as a spectroscopic binary and characterise the two components. We detect the simultaneous presence of high-order g modes and low-order p and g-modes in the CoRoT light curve, but were unable to link them to line profile variations in the spectroscopic time series. We extract the relevant information from the frequency spectrum, which can be used for seismic modelling, and explore possible interpretations of the pressure mode spectrum.Comment: 26 pages, 12+6 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysic

Plaskett's Star: Analysis of the CoRoT photometric data

The SRa02 of the CoRoT space mission for Asteroseismology was partly devoted to stars belonging to the Mon OB2 association. An intense monitoring was performed on Plaskett's Star (HD47129) and the unprecedented quality of the light curve allows us to shed new light on this very massive, non-eclipsing binary system. We particularly aimed at detecting periodic variability which might be associated with pulsations or interactions between both components. We also searched for variations related to the orbital cycle which could help to constrain the inclination and the morphology of the binary system. A Fourier-based prewhitening and a multiperiodic fitting procedure were applied to analyse the time series and extract the frequencies of variations. We describe the noise properties to tentatively define an appropriate significance criterion, to only point out the peaks at a certain significance level. We also detect the variations related to the orbital motion and study them by using the NIGHTFALL program. The periodogram exhibits a majority of peaks at low frequencies. Among these peaks, we highlight a list of about 43 values, including notably two different sets of harmonic frequencies whose fundamental peaks are located at about 0.07 and 0.82d-1. The former represents the orbital frequency of the binary system whilst the latter could probably be associated with non-radial pulsations. The study of the 0.07d-1 variations reveals the presence of a hot spot most probably situated on the primary star and facing the secondary. The investigation of this unique dataset constitutes a further step in the understanding of Plaskett's Star. These results provide a first basis for future seismic modelling. The existence of a hot region between both components renders the determination of the inclination ambiguous.Comment: Accepted in A&A, 13 pages, 7 figures, 2 table