Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implications for winter flooding in Britain

Within the warm conveyor belt of extra-tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are the key synoptic features which deliver the majority of poleward water vapour transport, and are associated with episodes of heavy and prolonged rainfall. ARs are responsible for many of the largest winter floods in the mid-latitudes resulting in major socioeconomic losses; for example, the loss from United Kingdom (UK) flooding in summer/winter 2012 is estimated to be about $1.6 billion in damages. Given the well-established link between ARs and peak river flows for the present day, assessing how ARs could respond under future climate projections is of importance in gauging future impacts from flooding. We show that North Atlantic ARs are projected to become stronger and more numerous in the future scenarios of multiple simulations from five state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) in the fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The increased water vapour transport in projected ARs implies a greater risk of higher rainfall totals and therefore larger winter floods in Britain, with increased AR frequency leading to more flood episodes. In the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) for 2074–2099 there is an approximate doubling of AR frequency in the five GCMs. Our results suggest that the projected change in ARs is predominantly a thermodynamic response to warming resulting from anthropogenic radiative forcing

Challenges in quantifying changes in the global water cycle

Human influences have likely already impacted the large-scale water cycle but natural variability and observational uncertainty are substantial. It is essential to maintain and improve observational capabilities to better characterize changes. Understanding observed changes to the global water cycle is key to predicting future climate changes and their impacts. While many datasets document crucial variables such as precipitation, ocean salinity, runoff, and humidity, most are uncertain for determining long-term changes. In situ networks provide long time-series over land but are sparse in many regions, particularly the tropics. Satellite and reanalysis datasets provide global coverage, but their long-term stability is lacking. However, comparisons of changes among related variables can give insights into the robustness of observed changes. For example, ocean salinity, interpreted with an understanding of ocean processes, can help cross-validate precipitation. Observational evidence for human influences on the water cycle is emerging, but uncertainties resulting from internal variability and observational errors are too large to determine whether the observed and simulated changes are consistent. Improvements to the in situ and satellite observing networks that monitor the changing water cycle are required, yet continued data coverage is threatened by funding reductions. Uncertainty both in the role of anthropogenic aerosols, and due to large climate variability presently limits confidence in attribution of observed changes

Human Umbilical Cord Blood Cells Restore Brain Damage Induced Changes in Rat Somatosensory Cortex

Intraperitoneal transplantation of human umbilical cord blood (hUCB) cells has been shown to reduce sensorimotor deficits after hypoxic ischemic brain injury in neonatal rats. However, the neuronal correlate of the functional recovery and how such a treatment enforces plastic remodelling at the level of neural processing remains elusive. Here we show by in-vivo recordings that hUCB cells have the capability of ameliorating the injury-related impairment of neural processing in primary somatosensory cortex. Intact cortical processing depends on a delicate balance of inhibitory and excitatory transmission, which is disturbed after injury. We found that the dimensions of cortical maps and receptive fields, which are significantly altered after injury, were largely restored. Additionally, the lesion induced hyperexcitability was no longer observed in hUCB treated animals as indicated by a paired-pulse behaviour resembling that observed in control animals. The beneficial effects on cortical processing were reflected in an almost complete recovery of sensorimotor behaviour. Our results demonstrate that hUCB cells reinstall the way central neurons process information by normalizing inhibitory and excitatory processes. We propose that the intermediate level of cortical processing will become relevant as a new stage to investigate efficacy and mechanisms of cell therapy in the treatment of brain injury

Differential Effects of Aging on Fore– and Hindpaw Maps of Rat Somatosensory Cortex

Getting older is associated with a decline of cognitive and sensorimotor abilities, but it remains elusive whether age-related changes are due to accumulating degenerational processes, rendering them largely irreversible, or whether they reflect plastic, adaptational and presumably compensatory changes. Using aged rats as a model we studied how aging affects neural processing in somatosensory cortex. By multi-unit recordings in the fore- and hindpaw cortical maps we compared the effects of aging on receptive field size and response latencies. While in aged animals response latencies of neurons of both cortical representations were lengthened by approximately the same amount, only RFs of hindpaw neurons showed severe expansion with only little changes of forepaw RFs. To obtain insight into parallel changes of walking behavior, we recorded footprints in young and old animals which revealed a general age-related impairment of walking. In addition we found evidence for a limb-specific deterioration of the hindlimbs that was not observed in the forelimbs. Our results show that age-related changes of somatosensory cortical neurons display a complex pattern of regional specificity and parameter-dependence indicating that aging acts rather selectively on cortical processing of sensory information. The fact that RFs of the fore- and hindpaws do not co-vary in aged animals argues against degenerational processes on a global scale. We therefore conclude that age-related alterations are composed of plastic-adaptive alterations in response to modified use and degenerational changes developing with age. As a consequence, age-related changes need not be irreversible but can be subject to amelioration through training and stimulation

Personalized neurorehabilitative precision medicine: from data to therapies (MWKNeuroReha) - a multi-centre prospective observational clinical trial to predict long-term outcome of patients with acute motor stroke

BACKGROUND: Stroke is one of the most frequent diseases, and half of the stroke survivors are left with permanent impairment. Prediction of individual outcome is still difficult. Many but not all patients with stroke improve by approximately 1.7 times the initial impairment, that has been termed proportional recovery rule. The present study aims at identifying factors predicting motor outcome after stroke more accurately than before, and observe associations of rehabilitation treatment with outcome. METHODS: The study is designed as a multi-centre prospective clinical observational trial. An extensive primary data set of clinical, neuroimaging, electrophysiological, and laboratory data will be collected within 96 h of stroke onset from patients with relevant upper extremity deficit, as indexed by a Fugl-Meyer-Upper Extremity (FM-UE) score ≤ 50. At least 200 patients will be recruited. Clinical scores will include the FM-UE score (range 0–66, unimpaired function is indicated by a score of 66), Action Research Arm Test, modified Rankin Scale, Barthel Index and Stroke-Specific Quality of Life Scale. Follow-up clinical scores and applied types and amount of rehabilitation treatment will be documented in the rehabilitation hospitals. Final follow-up clinical scoring will be performed 90 days after the stroke event. The primary endpoint is the change in FM-UE defined as 90 days FM-UE minus initial FM-UE, divided by initial FM-UE impairment. Changes in the other clinical scores serve as secondary endpoints. Machine learning methods will be employed to analyze the data and predict primary and secondary endpoints based on the primary data set and the different rehabilitation treatments. DISCUSSION: If successful, outcome and relation to rehabilitation treatment in patients with acute motor stroke will be predictable more reliably than currently possible, leading to personalized neurorehabilitation. An important regulatory aspect of this trial is the first-time implementation of systematic patient data transfer between emergency and rehabilitation hospitals, which are divided institutions in Germany. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04688970) on 30 December 2020

Estudo da variabilidade da radiação solar no Nordeste do Brasil Study of the variability of solar radiation in northeast Brazil

A finalidade deste trabalho é avaliar as tendências das séries temporais do saldo radiação no Nordeste do Brasil, através de dados de reanálise do NCEP/NCAR referentes ao período de 1948 a 2006. As séries temporais anuais de dados observados na superfície de radiação solar global e evaporação do tanque classe "A" de duas localidades do semiárido da região de estudo, também foram utilizadas. Analisou-se a variabilidade temporal das séries temporais com base no teste não-paramétrico, de Mann-Kendall. As séries temporais do saldo de radiação exibiram reduções acentuadas entre 1948 e 1987, que foram estatisticamente significativas em níveis de 0,01 de probabilidade pelo teste de Mann-Kendall; verificou-se, entretanto, no período de 1988 a 2006, comportamento inverso, predominando tendências positivas de saldo de radiação. Os resultados também indicaram que os dados observados de radiação global e de evaporação do tanque classe "A", apresentam reduções acentuadas ao longo do período estudado estatisticamente significativos em níveis de 0,01 de probabilidade. Esses resultados sugerem a presença do fenômeno "Global dimming" sobre a região Nordeste do Brasil.<br>The main objective of this work was to assess the tendency of time series of net radiation in the northeastern region of Brazil from the NCEP/NCAR database of the 1948-2006 period. Also, the annual time series of data observed at surface of global solar radiation and class A pan evaporation for two stations located in the semiarid area of studied region were analyzed. Long-term variability of the time series was assessed by the Mann-Kendall test. The time series of net radiation showed a reduction through the 1948-1987 period, statistically significant at the 0.01 level of probability by the Mann-Kendall test. However, the 1988 to 2006 period showed an inverse pattern in net radiation with positive trends. Results also indicate that observed data in global solar radiation and class A pan evaporation at Petrolina, PE and Juazeiro, BA presented an accentuated decrease through the study period statistically significant at 0.01 level of probality by the Mann-Kendall test. These results suggest that the global dimming effect is present in the northeastern region of Brazil