Bayesian Inference of the Multi-Period Optimal Portfolio for an Exponential Utility

We consider the estimation of the multi-period optimal portfolio obtained by maximizing an exponential utility. Employing Jeffreys' non-informative prior and the conjugate informative prior, we derive stochastic representations for the optimal portfolio weights at each time point of portfolio reallocation. This provides a direct access not only to the posterior distribution of the portfolio weights but also to their point estimates together with uncertainties and their asymptotic distributions. Furthermore, we present the posterior predictive distribution for the investor's wealth at each time point of the investment period in terms of a stochastic representation for the future wealth realization. This in turn makes it possible to use quantile-based risk measures or to calculate the probability of default. We apply the suggested Bayesian approach to assess the uncertainty in the multi-period optimal portfolio by considering assets from the FTSE 100 in the weeks after the British referendum to leave the European Union. The behaviour of the novel portfolio estimation method in a precarious market situation is illustrated by calculating the predictive wealth, the risk associated with the holding portfolio, and the default probability in each period.Comment: 38 pages, 5 figure

Sol and the Rockettes

Sol and the Rockettes is a collection of poetry exploring our solar system and many of the lesser known qualities and characteristics of planetary bodies. The poetry relates these characteristics through a combination of scientific language and a mishmash of conflicting metaphors; this includes an overarching family structure, which describes the planetary bodies as human-ish figures, with human traits representative of their physical traits. The accompanying essay, “Building a Home for Readers in the Unfamiliar Territory of Space,” details the relationship between science and poetry in a few select works (Mary Barnard’s Time and the White Tigress, Christopher Dewdney’s The Natural History, and Christian Bök’s The Xenotext), and examines, in particular, the techniques used to integrate science in poetry in meaningful ways, in relation to the techniques used in Sol and the Rockettes

Landscape and scale in media representations: the construction of offshore farm labour in Ontario, Canada

Thousands of migrant workers travel from Mexico and the Caribbean to Ontario every year to assist Canadian farmers in their horticulture operations. These migrants have become a structural necessity to the industry, ensuring growth and profits. I propose that exploitative and coercive labour practices are legitimated and sustained through cultural representations which identify migrants not only as outsiders to the community and a cultural threat, but also as economic assets and subordinate labour. A content analysis of the Ontario daily newsprint media between 1996 and 2002 reveals that the construction of offshore workers relies on coexisting dualisms created on different geographical scales. These dualisms work in tandem to produce a powerful and pervasive discourse of subordination

Dialectics of Humanitarian Immigration and National Identity in Canadian Public Discourse

Humanitarian immigration is an important element in the construction of Canada’s identity as a liberal and compassionate country. Drawing on Hegelian dialectics, a discourse analysis of newspaper articles published between 1996 and 2001 examines processes of national identity formation through humanitarian immigration in the media. My interpretation of this discourse suggests that Canada’s national identity is constructed on the basis of material inequalities through negation and sublation of refugees. By representing refugees who experience gender violence, children, and victims of natural disaster as deserving, the media construes an identity of Canada as compassionate. War criminals, supporters of hate crimes, and violent offenders are involved only to a limited degree in this dialectic.L’immigration à titre humanitaire est un élément important dans la construction de l’identité du Canada en tant que pays libéral et compatissant. Utilisant la dialectique hégélienne, une analyse de discours est entreprise d’articles de journaux publiés entre 1996 et 2001 afin d’examiner les processus de formation de l’identité nationale à travers l’immigration à titre humanitaire dans les médias. Mon interprétation de ce discours suggère que l’identité nationale du Canada est construite sur la base d’inégalités matérielles, à travers la négation et la ‘réhabilitation’ (l’anglais ‘sublation’, et l’allemand ‘Aufhebung’) de réfugiés. En présentant les réfugiés victimes de violences liées au genre, les enfants, et les victimes des catastrophes naturelles comme méritants, les médias construisent une identité du Canada comme compatissante. Les criminels de guerre, les défenseurs des crimes de haine, et les contrevenants violents ne sont pris en compte que de façon limitée dans cette dialectique

Chapter 5 Urban Migrant and Refugee Solidarity

Urban and local communities around the world are practising migrant and refugee solidarity. This chapter first identifies several dimensions that define a common urban solidary approach: legal, discursive, identity-formative, and scalar dimensions. Second, the chapter examines cities around the world where these dimensions can be observed although various labels are used to describe urban solidarity approaches. In Canada, the USA, and the UK, the label “sanctuary city” is often used; in Spain, Barcelona calls itself a “city of refuge,” and municipalities in Chile refer to themselves as “commune of reception” or “inclusive community.” Dimensions of urban solidarity approaches can also be observed in parts of Africa and Asia. By focussing on different continents and diverse geopolitical contexts, the chapter illustrates the complexity in the way in which urban migrant and refugee solidarity is understood and practiced

HathiTrust as a Data Source for Researching Early Nineteenth-Century Library Collections

An intriguing new opportunity for research into the nineteenth-century history of print culture, libraries, and local communities is performing full-text analyses on the corpus of books held by a specific library or group of libraries. Creating corpora using books that are known to have been owned by a given library at a given point in time is potentially feasible because digitized records of the books in several hundred nineteenth-century library collections are available in the form of scanned book catalogs: a book or pamphlet listing all of the books available in a particular library. However, there are two potential problems with using those book catalogs to create corpora. First, it is not clear whether most or all of the books that were in these collections have been digitized. Second, the prospect of identifying the digital representations of the books listed in the catalogs is daunting, given the diversity of cataloging practices at the time. This article will report on progress towards developing an automated method to match entries in early nineteenth-century book catalogs with digitized versions of those books, and will also provide estimates of the fractions of the library holdings that have been digitized and made available in the Google Books/HathiTrust corpus

POPULATION VIABILITY AND CONNECTIVITY OF THE FEDERALLY THREATENED EASTERN INDIGO SNAKE IN CENTRAL PENINSULAR FLORIDA

Understanding the factors influencing the likelihood of persistence of real-world populations requires both an accurate understanding of the traits and behaviors of individuals within those populations (e.g., movement, habitat selection, survival, fecundity, dispersal) but also an understanding of how those traits and behaviors are influenced by landscape features. The federally threatened eastern indigo snake (EIS, Drymarchon couperi) has declined throughout its range primarily due to anthropogenically-induced habitat loss and fragmentation making spatially-explicit assessments of population viability and connectivity essential for understanding its current status and directing future conservation efforts. The primary goal of my dissertation was to understand how landscape features influence EIS population viability and connectivity in central peninsular Florida. I accomplished this through four components. First, I evaluated EIS movement patterns and space use including daily movement distance, home range size, within-individual home range overlap, and among-individual home range overlap and how these patterns varied by sex and season. Second, I conducted a multi-level, multi-scale habitat selection analysis to create spatially-explicit estimates of EIS habitat selection. Third, using the aforementioned data and previously published data, I developed an agent-based model for simulating EIS movement, survival, reproduction, and dispersal in central Florida. I used this model to determine how landscape features and conservation lands influence EIS occupancy across our study landscape. Finally, I used landscape genetics to determine how landscape features influenced genetic connectivity and to estimate resistance surfaces with which to model potential corridors. I found that male EIS maintain larger home ranges than females and move extensively during the breeding season in search of females. While seasonal home ranges within an individual strongly overlapped, individuals avoided home ranges of same-sex conspecifics. EIS selected home ranges and within-home range locations in areas of undeveloped upland habitat with high habitat heterogeneity and generally avoided urban. While EIS did not avoid roads, they rarely crossed primary and secondary roads. I used observed patterns of movement and habitat selection to calibrate my ABM. My ABM simulated larger male home ranges and smaller home ranges and lower survival in urbanized landscapes although simulated effect sizes were weaker than observed effect sizes. My model was unable to simulate observed patterns of within-individual home range overlap but accurately simulated survival in developed and undeveloped landscapes. EIS occupancy after a 15 year simulation was 56% and occupancy was most strongly affected, negatively, by urbanization. While the presence of conservation lands was not a strong driver of EIS occupancy, EIS occupancy was more consistently higher on conservation lands. EIS gene flow was most strongly associated with undeveloped uplands, urbanization, and habitat edge at the broadest scales we evaluated. Potential corridors were widespread in the southern half of our study area with substantial areas of potential habitat and corridor occurring outside of the existing conservation network. This work indicates that the LWR contains extensive areas capable of supporting EIS although increasing urbanization may have a negative impact on future persistence of EIS