Evaluation of COVID-19 impact on DELAYing diagnostic-therapeutic pathways of lung cancer patients in Italy (COVID-DELAY study): fewer cases and higher stages from a real-world scenario

Introduction: COVID-19 has disrupted the global health care system since March 2020. Lung cancer (LC) patients (pts) represent a vulnerable population highly affected by the pandemic. This multicenter Italian study aimed to evaluate whether the COVID-19 outbreak had an impact on access to cancer diagnosis and treatment of LC pts compared with pre-pandemic time. Methods: Consecutive newly diagnosed LC pts referred to 25 Italian Oncology Departments between March and December 2020 were included. Access rate and temporal intervals between date of symptoms onset and diagnostic and therapeutic services were compared with the same period in 2019. Differences between the 2 years were analyzed using the chi-square test for categorical variables and the Mann\u2013Whitney U test for continuous variables. Results: A slight reduction ( 126.9%) in newly diagnosed LC cases was observed in 2020 compared with 2019 (1523 versus 1637, P = 0.09). Newly diagnosed LC pts in 2020 were more likely to be diagnosed with stage IV disease (P < 0.01) and to be current smokers (someone who has smoked more than 100 cigarettes, including hand-rolled cigarettes, cigars, cigarillos, in their lifetime and has smoked in the last 28 days) (P < 0.01). The drop in terms of new diagnoses was greater in the lockdown period (percentage drop 1212% versus 123.2%) compared with the other months included. More LC pts were referred to a low/medium volume hospital in 2020 compared with 2019 (P = 0.01). No differences emerged in terms of interval between symptoms onset and radiological diagnosis (P = 0.94), symptoms onset and cytohistological diagnosis (P = 0.92), symptoms onset and treatment start (P = 0.40), and treatment start and first radiological revaluation (P = 0.36). Conclusions: Our study pointed out a reduction of new diagnoses with a shift towards higher stage at diagnosis for LC pts in 2020. Despite this, the measures adopted by Italian Oncology Departments ensured the maintenance of the diagnostic-therapeutic pathways of LC pts

Bayesian inference for compact binary coalescences with BILBY:Validation and application to the first LIGO-Virgo gravitational-wave transient catalogue

Gravitational waves provide a unique tool for observational astronomy. While the first LIGO–Virgo catalogue of gravitational-wave transients (GWTC-1) contains eleven signals from black hole and neutron star binaries, the number of observations is increasing rapidly as detector sensitivity improves. To extract information from the observed signals, it is imperative to have fast, flexible, and scalable inference techniques. In a previous paper, we introduced BILBY: a modular and user-friendly Bayesian inference library adapted to address the needs of gravitational-wave inference. In this work, we demonstrate that BILBY produces reliable results for simulated gravitational-wave signals from compact binary mergers, and verify that it accurately reproduces results reported for the eleven GWTC-1 signals. Additionally, we provide configuration and output files for all analyses to allow for easy reproduction, modification, and future use. This work establishes that BILBY is primed and ready to analyse the rapidly growing population of compact binary coalescence gravitational-wave signals

Population of Merging Compact Binaries Inferred Using Gravitational Waves through GWTC-3

We report on the population properties of compact binary mergers inferred from gravitational-wave observations of these systems during the first three LIGO-Virgo observing runs. The Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog 3 (GWTC-3) contains signals consistent with three classes of binary mergers: binary black hole, binary neutron star, and neutron star-black hole mergers. We infer the binary neutron star merger rate to be between 10 and 1700 Gpc-3 yr-1 and the neutron star-black hole merger rate to be between 7.8 and 140 Gpc-3 yr-1, assuming a constant rate density in the comoving frame and taking the union of 90% credible intervals for methods used in this work. We infer the binary black hole merger rate, allowing for evolution with redshift, to be between 17.9 and 44 Gpc-3 yr-1 at a fiducial redshift (z=0.2). The rate of binary black hole mergers is observed to increase with redshift at a rate proportional to (1+z)κ with κ=2.9-1.8+1.7 for z≲1. Using both binary neutron star and neutron star-black hole binaries, we obtain a broad, relatively flat neutron star mass distribution extending from 1.2-0.2+0.1 to 2.0-0.3+0.3M⊙. We confidently determine that the merger rate as a function of mass sharply declines after the expected maximum neutron star mass, but cannot yet confirm or rule out the existence of a lower mass gap between neutron stars and black holes. We also find the binary black hole mass distribution has localized over- and underdensities relative to a power-law distribution, with peaks emerging at chirp masses of 8.3-0.5+0.3 and 27.9-1.8+1.9M⊙. While we continue to find that the mass distribution of a binary's more massive component strongly decreases as a function of primary mass, we observe no evidence of a strongly suppressed merger rate above approximately 60M⊙, which would indicate the presence of a upper mass gap. Observed black hole spins are small, with half of spin magnitudes below χi≈0.25. While the majority of spins are preferentially aligned with the orbital angular momentum, we infer evidence of antialigned spins among the binary population. We observe an increase in spin magnitude for systems with more unequal-mass ratio. We also observe evidence of misalignment of spins relative to the orbital angular momentum

The population of merging compact binaries inferred using gravitational waves through GWTC-3

We report on the population properties of 76 compact binary mergers detected with gravitational waves below a false alarm rate of 1 per year through GWTC-3. The catalog contains three classes of binary mergers: BBH, BNS, and NSBH mergers. We infer the BNS merger rate to be between 10 $\rm{Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1}}$ and 1700 $\rm{Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1}}$ and the NSBH merger rate to be between 7.8 $\rm{Gpc^{-3}\, yr^{-1}}$ and 140 $\rm{Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1}}$ , assuming a constant rate density versus comoving volume and taking the union of 90% credible intervals for methods used in this work. Accounting for the BBH merger rate to evolve with redshift, we find the BBH merger rate to be between 17.9 $\rm{Gpc^{-3}\, yr^{-1}}$ and 44 $\rm{Gpc^{-3}\, yr^{-1}}$ at a fiducial redshift (z=0.2). We obtain a broad neutron star mass distribution extending from $1.2^{+0.1}_{-0.2} M_\odot$ to $2.0^{+0.3}_{-0.3} M_\odot$. We can confidently identify a rapid decrease in merger rate versus component mass between neutron star-like masses and black-hole-like masses, but there is no evidence that the merger rate increases again before 10 $M_\odot$. We also find the BBH mass distribution has localized over- and under-densities relative to a power law distribution. While we continue to find the mass distribution of a binary's more massive component strongly decreases as a function of primary mass, we observe no evidence of a strongly suppressed merger rate above $\sim 60 M_\odot$. The rate of BBH mergers is observed to increase with redshift at a rate proportional to $(1+z)^{\kappa}$ with $\kappa = 2.9^{+1.7}_{-1.8}$ for $z\lesssim 1$. Observed black hole spins are small, with half of spin magnitudes below $\chi_i \simeq 0.25$. We observe evidence of negative aligned spins in the population, and an increase in spin magnitude for systems with more unequal mass ratio

GW190412: Observation of a Binary-Black-Hole Coalescence with Asymmetric Masses

We report the observation of gravitational waves from a binary-black-hole coalescence during the first two weeks of LIGO’s and Virgo’s third observing run. The signal was recorded on April 12, 2019 at 05∶30∶44 UTC with a network signal-to-noise ratio of 19. The binary is different from observations during the first two observing runs most notably due to its asymmetric masses: a ∼30 M_⊙ black hole merged with a ∼8 M_⊙ black hole companion. The more massive black hole rotated with a dimensionless spin magnitude between 0.22 and 0.60 (90% probability). Asymmetric systems are predicted to emit gravitational waves with stronger contributions from higher multipoles, and indeed we find strong evidence for gravitational radiation beyond the leading quadrupolar order in the observed signal. A suite of tests performed on GW190412 indicates consistency with Einstein’s general theory of relativity. While the mass ratio of this system differs from all previous detections, we show that it is consistent with the population model of stellar binary black holes inferred from the first two observing runs

All-sky search for long-duration gravitational-wave bursts in the third Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo run

After the detection of gravitational waves from compact binary coalescences, the search for transient gravitational-wave signals with less well-defined waveforms for which matched filtering is not well suited is one of the frontiers for gravitational-wave astronomy. Broadly classified into “short” ≲1  s and “long” ≳1  s duration signals, these signals are expected from a variety of astrophysical processes, including non-axisymmetric deformations in magnetars or eccentric binary black hole coalescences. In this work, we present a search for long-duration gravitational-wave transients from Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo’s third observing run from April 2019 to March 2020. For this search, we use minimal assumptions for the sky location, event time, waveform morphology, and duration of the source. The search covers the range of 2–500 s in duration and a frequency band of 24–2048 Hz. We find no significant triggers within this parameter space; we report sensitivity limits on the signal strength of gravitational waves characterized by the root-sum-square amplitude hrss as a function of waveform morphology. These hrss limits improve upon the results from the second observing run by an average factor of 1.8

GW190521 : a binary black hole merger with a total mass of 150 M⊙

On May 21, 2019 at 03:02:29 UTC Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo observed a short duration gravitational-wave signal, GW190521, with a three-detector network signal-to-noise ratio of 14.7, and an estimated false-alarm rate of 1 in 4900 yr using a search sensitive to generic transients. If GW190521 is from a quasicircular binary inspiral, then the detected signal is consistent with the merger of two black holes with masses of 85+21−14  M⊙ and 66+17−18  M⊙ (90% credible intervals). We infer that the primary black hole mass lies within the gap produced by (pulsational) pair-instability supernova processes, with only a 0.32% probability of being below 65  M⊙. We calculate the mass of the remnant to be 142+28−16  M⊙, which can be considered an intermediate mass black hole (IMBH). The luminosity distance of the source is 5.3+2.4−2.6  Gpc, corresponding to a redshift of 0.82+0.28−0.34. The inferred rate of mergers similar to GW190521 is 0.13+0.30−0.11  Gpc−3 yr−1

Search for anisotropic gravitational-wave backgrounds using data from Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo's first three observing runs

We report results from searches for anisotropic stochastic gravitational-wave backgrounds using data from the first three observing runs of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. For the first time, we include Virgo data in our analysis and run our search with a new efficient pipeline called {\tt PyStoch} on data folded over one sidereal day. We use gravitational-wave radiometry (broadband and narrow band) to produce sky maps of stochastic gravitational-wave backgrounds and to search for gravitational waves from point sources. A spherical harmonic decomposition method is employed to look for gravitational-wave emission from spatially-extended sources. Neither technique found evidence of gravitational-wave signals. Hence we derive 95\% confidence-level upper limit sky maps on the gravitational-wave energy flux from broadband point sources, ranging from $F_{\alpha, \Theta} < {\rm (0.013 - 7.6)} \times 10^{-8} {\rm erg \, cm^{-2} \, s^{-1} \, Hz^{-1}},$ and on the (normalized) gravitational-wave energy density spectrum from extended sources, ranging from $\Omega_{\alpha, \Theta} < {\rm (0.57 - 9.3)} \times 10^{-9} \, {\rm sr^{-1}}$, depending on direction ($\Theta$) and spectral index ($\alpha$). These limits improve upon previous limits by factors of $2.9 - 3.5$. We also set 95\% confidence level upper limits on the frequency-dependent strain amplitudes of quasimonochromatic gravitational waves coming from three interesting targets, Scorpius X-1, SN 1987A and the Galactic Center, with best upper limits range from $h_0 < {\rm (1.7-2.1)} \times 10^{-25},$ a factor of $\geq 2.0$ improvement compared to previous stochastic radiometer searches.Comment: 23 Pages, 9 Figure