PRImary care Streptococcal Management (PRISM) study:In vitro study, diagnostic cohorts and a pragmatic adaptive randomised controlled trial with nested qualitative study and cost-effectiveness study

Background: Antibiotics are still prescribed to most patients attending primary care with acute sore throat, despite evidence that there is modest benefit overall from antibiotics. Targeting antibiotics using either clinical scoring methods or rapid antigen detection tests (RADTs) could help. However, there is debate about which groups of streptococci are important (particularly Lancefield groups C and G), and uncertainty about the variables that most clearly predict the presence of streptococci. Objective: This study aimed to compare clinical scores or RADTs with delayed antibiotic prescribing. Design: The study comprised a RADT in vitro study; two diagnostic cohorts to develop streptococcal scores (score 1; score 2); and, finally, an open pragmatic randomised controlled trial with nested qualitative and cost-effectiveness studies. Setting: The setting was UK primary care general practices. Participants: Participants were patients aged ≥ 3 years with acute sore throat. Interventions: An internet program randomised patients to targeted antibiotic use according to (1) delayed antibiotics (control group), (2) clinical score or (3) RADT used according to clinical score. Main outcome measures: The main outcome measures were self-reported antibiotic use and symptom duration and severity on seven-point Likert scales (primary outcome: mean sore throat/difficulty swallowing score in the first 2-4 days). Results: The IMI TestPack Plus Strep A (Inverness Medical, Bedford, UK) was sensitive, specific and easy to use. Lancefield group A/C/G streptococci were found in 40% of cohort 2 and 34% of cohort 1. A five-point score predicting the presence of A/C/G streptococci [FeverPAIN: Fever; Purulence; Attend rapidly (≤ 3 days); severe Inflammation; and No cough or coryza] had moderate predictive value (bootstrapped estimates of area under receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.73 cohort 1, 0.71 cohort 2) and identified a substantial number of participants at low risk of streptococcal infection. In total, 38% of cohort 1 and 36% of cohort 2 scored ≤ 1 for FeverPAIN, associated with streptococcal percentages of 13% and 18%, respectively. In an adaptive trial design, the preliminary score (score 1; n = 1129) was replaced by FeverPAIN (n = 631). For score 1, there were no significant differences between groups. For FeverPAIN, symptom severity was documented in 80% of patients, and was lower in the clinical score group than in the delayed prescribing group (-0.33; 95% confidence interval -0.64 to -0.02; p = 0.039; equivalent to one in three rating sore throat a slight rather than moderately bad problem), and a similar reduction was observed for the RADT group (-0.30; -0.61 to 0.00; p = 0.053). Moderately bad or worse symptoms resolved significantly faster (30%) in the clinical score group (hazard ratio 1.30; 1.03 to 1.63) but not the RADT group (1.11; 0.88 to 1.40). In the delayed group, 75/164 (46%) used antibiotics, and 29% fewer used antibiotics in the clinical score group (risk ratio 0.71; 0.50 to 0.95; p = 0.018) and 27% fewer in the RADT group (0.73; 0.52 to 0.98; p = 0.033). No significant differences in complications or reconsultations were found. The clinical score group dominated both other groups for both the cost/quality-adjusted life-years and cost/change in symptom severity analyses, being both less costly and more effective, and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves indicated the clinical score to be the most likely to be cost-effective from an NHS perspective. Patients were positive about RADTs. Health professionals' concerns about test validity, the time the test took and medicalising self-limiting illness lessened after using the tests. For both RADTs and clinical scores, there were tensions with established clinical experience. Conclusions: Targeting antibiotics using a clinical score (FeverPAIN) efficiently improves symptoms and reduces antibiotic use. RADTs used in combination with FeverPAIN provide no clear advantages over FeverPAIN alone, and RADTs are unlikely to be incorporated into practice until health professionals' concerns are met and they have experience of using them. Clinical scores also face barriers related to clinicians' perceptions of their utility in the face of experience. This study has demonstrated the limitation of using one data set to develop a clinical score. FeverPAIN, derived from two data sets, appears to be valid and its use improves outcomes, but diagnostic studies to confirm the validity of FeverPAIN in other data sets and settings are needed. Experienced clinicians need to identify barriers to the use of clinical scoring methods. Implementation studies that address perceived barriers in the use of FeverPAIN are needed

The effect of sepsis and its inflammatory response on mechanical clot characteristics: a prospective observational study

Purpose: Sepsis and its progression are known to have a major influence on the coagulation system. Current coagulation tests are of limited use when assessing coagulation in sepsis patients. This study aims to assess the potential for a new functional biomarker of clot microstructure, fractal dimension, to identify changes in the mechanical properties of clot microstructure across the sepsis spectrum (sepsis, severe sepsis and septic shock). Methods: A total of 100 patients that presented acutely to a large teaching hospital were included in this prospective observational study (50 sepsis, 20 severe sepsis and 30 septic shock) against a matched control of 44 healthy volunteers. Fractal analysis was performed, as well as standard markers of coagulation, and six plasma markers of inflammation. Results: Fractal dimension was significantly higher in the sepsis and severe sepsis groups than the healthy control (1.78 ± 0.07 and 1.80 ± 0.05 respectively vs 1.74 ± 0.03) (p < 0.001), indicating a significant increase in mechanical clot strength and elasticity consistent with a hypercoagulable state. Conversely, fractal dimension was significantly lower in septic shock (1.66 ± 0.10, p < 0.001), indicating a significant reduction in mechanical clot strength and functionality consistent with a hypocoagulable state. This corresponded with a significant increase in the inflammatory response. Conclusions: This study confirms that clot microstructure is significantly altered through the various stages of sepsis. Of particular importance was the marked change in clot development between severe sepsis and septic shock, which has not been previously reported

Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

Sex-Specific Habitat Suitability Modeling for <i>Panthera tigris</i> in Chitwan National Park, Nepal: Broader Conservation Implications

Although research on wildlife species across taxa has shown that males and females may differentially select habitat, sex-specific habitat suitability models for endangered species are uncommon. We developed sex-specific models for Bengal tigers (Panthera tigris) based on camera trapping data collected from 20 January to 22 March 2010 within Chitwan National Park, Nepal, and its buffer zone. We compared these to a sex-indiscriminate habitat suitability model to assess the benefits of a sex-specific approach to habitat suitability modeling. Our sex-specific models produced more informative and detailed habitat suitability maps and highlighted vital differences in the spatial distribution of suitable habitats for males and females, specific associations with different vegetation types, and habitat use near human settlements. Improving and refining habitat models for this and other critically endangered species provides the necessary information to meet established conservation goals and population recovery targets