Assessing the distribution and vulnerability of a seabird community at sea to inform conservation and management

Seabirds are an apex predator in marine ecosystems and can be important bio-indicators for informing wider marine conservation and management. They face many threats from anthropogenic activities at sea but the interactions and subsequent impacts can often be difficult to monitor, particularly in pelagic regions. Ireland and Britain in the north-eastern Atlantic Ocean host internationally important numbers of many seabird species. However, there are challenges in assessing their distribution at sea, not least the time and costs involved in trying to do this at the community level. The large territorial waters of both countries also provide significant prospective marine fossil fuels and renewable energy. Therefore, there is the potential for detrimental impacts to seabird populations where hotspots of seabird density overlap with marine energy activity. In this thesis I demonstrate how existing data can be combined to assess the at-sea distribution, vulnerability, and gaps in conservation protection of seabird species at the national scale. In Chapter 2, I use a distance-weighted, foraging radius approach to predict at-sea distributions (hereafter called foraging radius distributions) for all breeding seabirds in Britain and Ireland, identifying hotspots of highest density and species richness. Relatively simple foraging radius models have the potential to generate predictive distributions for a large number of species rapidly, thus providing a cost-effective alternative to large-scale surveys or complex modelling approaches. I calculate the percentage population coverage from current marine and coastal protected areas (MPAs) for all seabird species using foraging radius distributions. On average, 33% of coastal populations and 13% of pelagic populations overlap with MPAs, indicating that pelagic species, many of which are near threatened or endangered, have significantly less coverage from protected areas than coastal species. In Chapter 3, I test the effectiveness of the foraging-radius approach by comparing foraging radius distributions to empirical distribution data for multiple species taken from biotelemetry studies and aerial surveys. Foraging radius distributions correlate significantly with GPS tracking data for four species at the colony level. At the regional level, foraging radius distributions show mixed results when compared to aerial survey data, but correlate well with auks and terns in particular. In order to assess seabird vulnerability to oil pollution in European waters I develop a new Oil Vulnerability Index (OVI) that updates information on population size and conservation status, as well as accounting for the potential attraction/avoidance of seabirds to offshore infrastructure (Chapter 4). The OVI scores are applied spatially and overlaid with current offshore petroleum activities to generate maps of seabird vulnerability to oil pollution in the Irish EEZ. Finally, I combine all of the information on seabird distributions, vulnerability to anthropogenic activities, and designated MPAs to carry out a spatial prioritisation analysis for conservation of seabirds in Irish waters (Chapter 5). The results reveal that those areas in the Irish EEZ that are most important for seabird populations and that should be prioritised for conservation, are also the areas that are experiencing the most pressure from anthropogenic activities

Marine protected areas show low overlap with projected distributions of seabird populations in Britain and Ireland

EJC was funded by the Irish Petroleum Infrastructure Programme (PIP) IS013/08. WJG was funded by INSITE http://www.insitenorthsea.org/. AK was funded by the Irish Research CouncilGOIPD/2015/81. MJ was funded by the SFI Centre for Marine and Renewable Energy (12/RC/2302).Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are an important tool for the conservation of seabirds. However, mapping seabird distributions using at-sea surveys or tracking data to inform the designation of MPAs is costly and time-consuming, particularly for far-ranging pelagic species. Here we explore the potential for using predictive distribution models to examine the effectiveness of current MPAs for the conservation of seabirds, using Britain and Ireland as a case study. A distance-weighted foraging radius approach was used to project distributions at sea for an entire seabird community during the breeding season, identifying hotspots of highest density and species richness. The percentage overlap between distributions at sea and MPAs was calculated at the level of individual species, family group, foraging range group (coastal or pelagic foragers), and conservation status. On average, 32.5% of coastal populations and 13.2% of pelagic populations overlapped with MPAs indicating that pelagic species, many of which are threatened, are likely to have significantly less coverage from protected areas. We suggest that a foraging radius approach provides a pragmatic and rapid method of assessing overlap with MPA networks for central place foragers. It can also act as an initial tool to identify important areas for potential designation. This would be particularly useful for regions throughout the world with limited data on seabird distributions at sea and limited resources to collect this data. Future assessment for marine conservation management should account for the disparity between coastal and pelagic foraging species to ensure that wider-ranging seabirds are afforded adequate levels of protection.PostprintPeer reviewe

Acoustic activity across a seabird colony reflects patterns of within-colony flight rather than nest density

Passive acoustic monitoring is increasingly being used as a cost‐effective way to study wildlife populations, especially those that are difficult to census using conventional methods. Burrow‐nesting seabirds are among the most threatened birds globally, but they are also one of the most challenging taxa to census, making them prime candidates for research into such automated monitoring platforms. Passive acoustic monitoring has the potential to determine presence/absence or quantify burrow‐nesting populations, but its effectiveness remains unclear. We compared passive acoustic monitoring, tape‐playbacks and GPS tracking data to investigate the ability of passive acoustic monitoring to capture unbiased estimates of within‐colony variation in nest density for the Manx Shearwater Puffinus puffinus. Variation in acoustic activity across 12 study plots on an island colony was examined in relation to burrow density and environmental factors across 2 years. As predicted fewer calls were recorded when wind speed was high, and on moon‐lit nights, but there was no correlation between acoustic activity and the density of breeding birds within the plots as determined by tape‐playback surveys. Instead, acoustic indices correlated positively with spatial variation in the in‐colony flight activity of breeding individuals detected by GPS. Although passive acoustic monitoring has enormous potential in avian conservation, our results highlight the importance of understanding behaviour when using passive acoustic monitoring to estimate density and distribution

The impact of immediate breast reconstruction on the time to delivery of adjuvant therapy: the iBRA-2 study

Background: Immediate breast reconstruction (IBR) is routinely offered to improve quality-of-life for women requiring mastectomy, but there are concerns that more complex surgery may delay adjuvant oncological treatments and compromise long-term outcomes. High-quality evidence is lacking. The iBRA-2 study aimed to investigate the impact of IBR on time to adjuvant therapy. Methods: Consecutive women undergoing mastectomy ± IBR for breast cancer July–December, 2016 were included. Patient demographics, operative, oncological and complication data were collected. Time from last definitive cancer surgery to first adjuvant treatment for patients undergoing mastectomy ± IBR were compared and risk factors associated with delays explored. Results: A total of 2540 patients were recruited from 76 centres; 1008 (39.7%) underwent IBR (implant-only [n = 675, 26.6%]; pedicled flaps [n = 105,4.1%] and free-flaps [n = 228, 8.9%]). Complications requiring re-admission or re-operation were significantly more common in patients undergoing IBR than those receiving mastectomy. Adjuvant chemotherapy or radiotherapy was required by 1235 (48.6%) patients. No clinically significant differences were seen in time to adjuvant therapy between patient groups but major complications irrespective of surgery received were significantly associated with treatment delays. Conclusions: IBR does not result in clinically significant delays to adjuvant therapy, but post-operative complications are associated with treatment delays. Strategies to minimise complications, including careful patient selection, are required to improve outcomes for patients

Breast cancer management pathways during the COVID-19 pandemic: outcomes from the UK ‘Alert Level 4’ phase of the B-MaP-C study

Abstract: Background: The B-MaP-C study aimed to determine alterations to breast cancer (BC) management during the peak transmission period of the UK COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of these treatment decisions. Methods: This was a national cohort study of patients with early BC undergoing multidisciplinary team (MDT)-guided treatment recommendations during the pandemic, designated ‘standard’ or ‘COVID-altered’, in the preoperative, operative and post-operative setting. Findings: Of 3776 patients (from 64 UK units) in the study, 2246 (59%) had ‘COVID-altered’ management. ‘Bridging’ endocrine therapy was used (n = 951) where theatre capacity was reduced. There was increasing access to COVID-19 low-risk theatres during the study period (59%). In line with national guidance, immediate breast reconstruction was avoided (n = 299). Where adjuvant chemotherapy was omitted (n = 81), the median benefit was only 3% (IQR 2–9%) using ‘NHS Predict’. There was the rapid adoption of new evidence-based hypofractionated radiotherapy (n = 781, from 46 units). Only 14 patients (1%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during their treatment journey. Conclusions: The majority of ‘COVID-altered’ management decisions were largely in line with pre-COVID evidence-based guidelines, implying that breast cancer survival outcomes are unlikely to be negatively impacted by the pandemic. However, in this study, the potential impact of delays to BC presentation or diagnosis remains unknown

Marine protected areas show low overlap with projected distributions of seabird populations in Britain and Ireland

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are an important tool for the conservation of seabirds. However, mapping seabird distributions using at-sea surveys or tracking data to inform the designation of MPAs is costly and time-consuming, particularly for far-ranging pelagic species. Here we explore the potential for using predictive distribution models to examine the effectiveness of current MPAs for the conservation of seabirds, using Britain and Ireland as a case study. A distance-weighted foraging radius approach was used to project distributions at sea for an entire seabird community during the breeding season, identifying hotspots of highest density and species richness. The percentage overlap between distributions at sea and MPAs was calculated at the level of individual species, family group, foraging range group (coastal or pelagic foragers), and conservation status. On average, 32.5% of coastal populations and 13.2% of pelagic populations overlapped with MPAs indicating that pelagic species, many of which are threatened, are likely to have significantly less coverage from protected areas. We suggest that a foraging radius approach provides a pragmatic and rapid method of assessing overlap with MPA networks for central place foragers. It can also act as an initial tool to identify important areas for potential designation. This would be particularly useful for regions throughout the world with limited data on seabird distributions at sea and limited resources to collect this data. Future assessment for marine conservation management should account for the disparity between coastal and pelagic foraging species to ensure that wider-ranging seabirds are afforded adequate levels of protection

Marine protected areas show low overlap with projected distributions of seabird populations in Britain and Ireland

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are an important tool for the conservation of seabirds. However, mapping seabird distributions using at-sea surveys or tracking data to inform the designation of MPAs is costly and time-consuming, particularly for far-ranging pelagic species. Here we explore the potential for using predictive distribution models to examine the effectiveness of current MPAs for the conservation of seabirds, using Britain and Ireland as a case study. A distance-weighted foraging radius approach was used to project distributions at sea for an entire seabird community during the breeding season, identifying hotspots of highest density and species richness. The percentage overlap between distributions at sea and MPAs was calculated at the level of individual species, family group, foraging range group (coastal or pelagic foragers), and conservation status. On average, 32.5% of coastal populations and 13.2% of pelagic populations overlapped with MPAs indicating that pelagic species, many of which are threatened, are likely to have significantly less coverage from protected areas. We suggest that a foraging radius approach provides a pragmatic and rapid method of assessing overlap with MPA networks for central place foragers. It can also act as an initial tool to identify important areas for potential designation. This would be particularly useful for regions throughout the world with limited data on seabird distributions at sea and limited resources to collect this data. Future assessment for marine conservation management should account for the disparity between coastal and pelagic foraging species to ensure that wider-ranging seabirds are afforded adequate levels of protection

Development of a Cumulative Impact Assessment tool for birds in Norwegian Offshore Waters: Trollvind OWF as a case study

Layton-Matthews K., Buckingham L., Critchley E.J., Nilsson A.L.K., Ollus VMS., Ballesteros M., Christensen-Dalsgaard S., Dehnhard N., Fauchald P., Hanssen F., Helberg M., Masden E., May R.F., Sandvik H., Tarroux A. & Reiertsen T.K. 2023. Development of a Cumulative Impact Assessment tool for birds in Norwegian Offshore Waters: Trollvind OWF as a case study. NINA Report 2295. Norwegian Institute for Nature Research. There is growing interest in the economic potential of marine areas for e.g., offshore renewables, fisheries, and shipping. Thus, the cumulative stress on marine ecosystems and the species inhabiting them is increasing. This is of particular concern for migratory birds and seabirds which are undergoing global declines. In the light of an expanding global market for offshore renewables, knowledge of their cumulative impacts combined with other human-derived pressures on marine populations is crucial. This is set against the backdrop of climate change and associated large-scale changes in our oceans. Achieving sustainable development, while mitigating the effects of climate change, requires effective tools to assess the cumulative impacts of anthropogenic stressors on ecosystems. Cumulative impact assessments for the marine environment are strongly influenced by an approach developed by Halpern et al. (2008). In this report, we present and demonstrate a beta-version of a cumulative impact assessment tool for marine industrial pressures on seabirds, which is being developed through the Research Council of Norway (RCN) -funded MARCIS project. The goal of MARCIS is to assess the impacts of marine anthropogenic pressures on seabirds in the North-East Atlantic, which will both utilise and further develop the Halpern formula and provide a publicly open web-based tool that acts as a decision support for marine spatial planning. Equinor has been exploring the potential for con-structing a floating offshore wind farm, called Trollvind, in the North Sea. This proposed floating wind farm is in the early planning stages of development and is proposed to be located around the Troll offshore oil and gas platforms, approximately 65 km west of Bergen. This report presents; 1) a summary of a scoping of existing data of birds using Norwegian offshore area, 2) an assessment of bird migration through the North Sea and the Trollvind area, and the likelihood that some bird groups will be more impacted by an offshore wind farm in this area, and 3) a demonstration of the tool under development (the MARCIS web application), where we assess the potential cumulative impact of the proposed Trollvind OWF development and ocean warming on two seabird populations, as a case study. This report has specific emphasis on the demonstration of the tool. Results of the scoping study of birds using the Norwegian offshore areas indicated a below-medium to medium sensitivity of waterbirds to wind farms in the Trollvind area. However, there were strong seasonal differences showing above-medium values in summer in the eastern and north-eastern parts of the area. Our results also revealed that migratory bird groups differ in their type of risks of impact associated with the Trollvind development, where migrating raptors, gulls, waterfowl and owls were at greatest risk of collision, while migrating seabirds, waterbirds and waders had a higher risk of displacement and/or barrier effects. In the demo of the tool, we estimated the cumulative impact of two stressors (Trollvind OWF and ocean warming) on two study populations (kittiwake breeding at Ålesund colony and common guillemot from Sklinna colony). Both their non-breeding distribution and the cumulative impact of the two stressors was visualised in the demo of the MARCIS App. The impact of Trollvind OWF was negligible for both populations, while disturbance led to a small reduction in guillemots’ body mass and consequently their survival rates. However, ocean warming had a larger population impact, given the high emissions scenario used to quantify impact weights, particularly for guillemots. However, it is important to keep in mind that this demonstration is a case study of only two populations and should be interpreted in the larger context of the results from the scoping study and bird migration studies. The extensive range of species using this area at different times of year are much larger, and this has implementations for a potentially broader impact of such offshore developments. This also highlights the need for both spatial explicit distribution data and demographic/population data to ensure an appropriate knowledge base of population impacts before any OWF developments are conducted.Layton-Matthews K., Buckingham L., Critchley E.J., Nilsson A.L.K., Ollus V.M.S., Ballesteros M., Christensen-Dalsgaard, S., Dehnhard N., Fauchald P., Hanssen F., Helberg M., Masden E., May R.F., Sandvik H., Tarroux A. & Reiertsen T.K. 2023. Development of a Cumulative Impact As-sessment tool for birds in Norwegian Off-shore Waters: Trollvind OWF as a case study. NINA Rapport 2295. Norsk institutt for naturforskning. Presset på marine områder øker med økende økonomiske interesser for bruk av havområdene. Marine områder har blitt viktige arenaer for industriell utvikling som for eksempel havvind, petroleumsaktivitet, skipstrafikk og fiskeri. I lys av et ekspanderende globalt marked for havvind, er kunnskap om sumeffekter av både havvind, andre marine industriaktiviteter og klimaendringer avgjørende for å sikre en god sameksistens med sjøfugl og trekkfugler som benytter de samme havområdene. Økt utnyttelse av havarealene øker sumeffektene og stresset på marine økosystemer og artene som bor der, sett i lys av klima- og økosystem-endringene som skjer i marine økosystemer. Å oppnå bærekraftig utvikling, samtidig som effektene av klimaendringer reduseres, krever effektive verktøy for å vurdere sumeffektene av menneskeskapte stressfaktorer på økosystemene. Metoder for å estimere sumeffekter for havmiljøet er sterkt påvirket av en tilnærming utviklet av Halpern et al. (2008), som ser på summen av ulike stressfaktorer sin påvirkning på et miljø og miljøets sensitivitet til de ulike stressfaktorene. I denne rapporten vil vi presentere og demonstrere en betaversjon av et verktøy som kan benyttes i marin arealplanlegging og som kvantifiserer effekter av marin industri aktivitet på sjøfugler. Dette verktøyet utvikles gjennom det forskningsråds-finansierte MARCIS-prosjektet. Målet med MARCIS er å vurdere virkningene av marin industriaktivitet og klimaendringer på sjøfugler i Nordøst-Atlanteren, og vil både benytte og videreutvikle Halpern-metoden. Verktøyet vil bli gjort tilgjengelig som et offentlig åpent nettbasert verktøy, og kan fungere som beslutningsstøtte for marin arealplanlegging. Equinor har undersøkt potensialet for bygging av en flytende havvindpark, kalt Trollvind, i Nordsjøen. Denne flytende vindparken er i et tidlig planleggingsstadium og foreslås plassert rundt olje- og gassplattformene i Trollfeltet, ca. 65 km vest for Bergen. Denne rapporten presenterer: 1)en oppsummering av en scoping av eksisterende data om fugler som bruker i norsk offshore-område, 2) en vurdering av fugletrekk gjennom Nordsjøen og Trollvind-området, og sannsynligheten for at noen fuglegrupper blir mer påvirket av en havvindpark i dette området, og 3) endemonstrasjon av verktøyet som er under utvikling (MARCIS-webapplikasjonen), der vi vurdererde potensielle sumeffektene av den foreslåtte Trollvind OWF-utbyggingen og havoppvarmingenpå to sjøfuglbestander, som et casestudie. Denne rapporten har lagt spesifikk vekt på demon-strasjonen av verktøyet. Resultatene av dette studiet indikerte at trekkfugler knyttet til vann (eks. dykkere, lom osv) hadde en under middels til middels følsomhet for havvindparker i Trollvind-området. Det var imidlertid sterke sesongforskjeller som viste over middels verdier om sommeren i østlige og nordøstlige deler av området. Resultatene våre avdekket også at grupper av trekkfugl hadde ulik risiko for å bli påvirket av en havvind-utbygging knyttet Trollvind-området. Trekkende rovfugler, måker, gjess og ender, og ugler hadde størst risiko for kollisjon med turbiner, mens trekkende sjøfugler, andre fugler knyttet til vann og vadefugler hadde høyere risiko for å bli fordrevet fra området eller utsatt for barriereeffekter av havvind-installasjoner. Sum-effektene av to ulike stressfaktorer (Trollvind havvindpark og havoppvarming) ble estimert for to studiepopulasjoner (krykkje og lomvi fra hhv Ålesund og Sklinna) og visualisert i betaversjonen av MARCIS-appen. Effekten av en potensiell havvind-installasjon i Trollvind området var ubetydelig for begge popu-lasjoner, mens fordrivelse fra området førte til en liten reduksjon i lomviens kroppsmasse og dermed effekt på bestandens overlevelsesrate. Havoppvarmingen hadde imidlertid en større påvirkning på bestandene, og spesielt for lomvi. Det er imidlertid viktig å huske på at denne demonstrasjonen er en casestudie av bare to populasjoner og bør tolkes i en større kontekst i lys av resultatene fra scoping-studiet og fugletrekkstudiet. Begge disse viser det omfattende spekteret av arter som bruker dette området, og hvordan mengde og sammensetning av arter varierer til ulike tider av året. Effekten av en offshore havvind utbygging i Trollvind området har dermed en potensielt større effekt. Dette fremhever også behovet for gode data, både romlige distribusjonsdata og data på demografiske rater eller bestandstall for å sikre et godt nok kunnskapsgrunnlag om effekter på populasjoner før eventuelle havvind-utbygginger tar til

Patients with Schizophrenia have a Reduced Neural Response to Both Unpredictable and Predictable Primary Reinforcers

One prevalent theory of learning states that dopamine neurons signal mismatches between expected and actual outcomes, called temporal difference errors (TDEs). Evidence indicates that dopamine system dysfunction plays a role in negative symptoms of schizophrenia (SZ), including avolition and anhedonia. As such, we predicted that brain responses to TDEs in dopamine midbrain nuclei and target areas would be abnormal in SZ. Eighteen clinically-stable patients with chronic schizophrenia and 18 controls participated in an fMRI study, which used a passive conditioning task. In the task, the delivery of a small amount of juice followed a light stimulus by exactly 6 seconds on approximately 75% of 78 total trials, and was further delayed by 4–7 s on the remaining trials. The delayed juice delivery was designed to elicit the two types of TDE signals, associated with the recognition that a reward was omitted at the expected time, and delivered at an unexpected time. Main effects of TDE valence and group differences in the positive – negative TDE contrast (unexpected juice deliveries – juice omissions) were assessed through whole-brain and regions-of-interest (ROI) analyses. Main effects of TDE valence were observed for the entire sample in the midbrain, left putamen, left cerebellum, and primary gustatory cortex, bilaterally. Whole-brain analyses revealed group differences in the positive – negative TDE contrast in the right putamen and left precentral gyrus, while ROI analyses revealed additional group differences in the midbrain, insula and parietal operculum, on the right, the putamen and cerebellum, on the left, and the frontal operculum, bilaterally. Further, these group differences were generally driven by attenuated responses in patients to positive TDEs (unexpected juice deliveries), whereas responses to negative TDEs (unexpected juice omissions) were largely intact. Patients also showed reductions in responses to juice deliveries on standard trials, and more blunted reinforcer responses in the left putamen corresponded to higher ratings of avolition. These results provide evidence that SZ patients show abnormal brain responses associated with the processing of a primary reinforcer, which may be a source of motivational deficits

Prospective observational cohort study on grading the severity of postoperative complications in global surgery research

Background The Clavien–Dindo classification is perhaps the most widely used approach for reporting postoperative complications in clinical trials. This system classifies complication severity by the treatment provided. However, it is unclear whether the Clavien–Dindo system can be used internationally in studies across differing healthcare systems in high- (HICs) and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Methods This was a secondary analysis of the International Surgical Outcomes Study (ISOS), a prospective observational cohort study of elective surgery in adults. Data collection occurred over a 7-day period. Severity of complications was graded using Clavien–Dindo and the simpler ISOS grading (mild, moderate or severe, based on guided investigator judgement). Severity grading was compared using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Data are presented as frequencies and ICC values (with 95 per cent c.i.). The analysis was stratified by income status of the country, comparing HICs with LMICs. Results A total of 44 814 patients were recruited from 474 hospitals in 27 countries (19 HICs and 8 LMICs). Some 7508 patients (16·8 per cent) experienced at least one postoperative complication, equivalent to 11 664 complications in total. Using the ISOS classification, 5504 of 11 664 complications (47·2 per cent) were graded as mild, 4244 (36·4 per cent) as moderate and 1916 (16·4 per cent) as severe. Using Clavien–Dindo, 6781 of 11 664 complications (58·1 per cent) were graded as I or II, 1740 (14·9 per cent) as III, 2408 (20·6 per cent) as IV and 735 (6·3 per cent) as V. Agreement between classification systems was poor overall (ICC 0·41, 95 per cent c.i. 0·20 to 0·55), and in LMICs (ICC 0·23, 0·05 to 0·38) and HICs (ICC 0·46, 0·25 to 0·59). Conclusion Caution is recommended when using a treatment approach to grade complications in global surgery studies, as this may introduce bias unintentionally