The effect of the perturber population on subhalo measurements in strong gravitational lenses

Analyses of extended arcs in strong gravitational lensing images to date have constrained the properties of dark matter by measuring the parameters of one or two individual subhaloes. However, since such analyses are reliant on likelihood-based methods like Markov-chain Monte Carlo or nested sampling, they require various compromises to the realism of lensing models for the sake of computational tractability, such as ignoring the numerous other subhaloes and line-of-sight haloes in the system, assuming a particular form for the source model and requiring the noise to have a known likelihood function. Here, we show that a simulation-based inference method called truncated marginal neural ratio estimation (TMNRE) makes it possible to relax these requirements by training neural networks to directly compute marginal posteriors for subhalo parameters from lensing images. By performing a set of inference tasks on mock data, we verify the accuracy of TMNRE and show it can compute posteriors for subhalo parameters marginalized over populations of hundreds of substructures, as well as lens and source uncertainties. We also find that the multilayer perceptron (MLP) mixer network works far better for such tasks than the convolutional architectures explored in other lensing analyses. Furthermore, we show that since TMNRE learns a posterior function it enables direct statistical checks that would be extremely expensive with likelihood-based methods. Our results show that TMNRE is well-suited for analysing complex lensing data, and that the full subhalo and line-of-sight halo population must be included when measuring the properties of individual dark matter substructures with this technique

Was Sinn Féin dying? A quantitative post-mortem of the party's decline and the emergence of Fianna Fáil

This article calls for a reappraisal of the consensus surrounding the split within Sinn Féin in 1926 that led to the foundation of Fianna Fáil. It demonstrates that quantitative factors cited to demonstrate Sinn Féin’s “terminal” decline – finances, cumann numbers, and election results – and to explain de Valera’s decision to leave Sinn Féin and establish a rival republican organisation, Fianna Fáil, do not provide sufficient objective grounds to explain the republican leader’s actions. This article demonstrates that Sinn Féin’s election results during the period in question (1923-1926) were encouraging and the decline in finances and cumann numbers can be explained by the fact that the base year used to compare progress was 1923, an election year. Moreover, this article compares the performance of Sinn Féin to the first five years of Fianna Fáil (1926-1931) to show that what has been interpreted as terminal decline can also be attributed to normal inter-election lulls in party activity. Correspondingly, subjective factors – e.g. personal rivalries, differences in ideology, organisational style and levels of patience in terms of achieving political power – were most likely the determining factors rather than organisational decline

Regular use of aspirin and pancreatic cancer risk

BACKGROUND: Regular use of aspirin and other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) has been consistently associated with reduced risk of colorectal cancer and adenoma, and there is some evidence for a protective effect for other types of cancer. As experimental studies reveal a possible role for NSAIDs is reducing the risk of pancreatic cancer, epidemiological studies examining similar associations in human populations become more important. METHODS: In this hospital-based case-control study, 194 patients with pancreatic cancer were compared to 582 age and sex-matched patients with non-neoplastic conditions to examine the association between aspirin use and risk of pancreatic cancer. All participants received medical services at the Roswell Park Cancer Institute in Buffalo, NY and completed a comprehensive epidemiologic questionnaire that included information on demographics, lifestyle factors and medical history as well as frequency and duration of aspirin use. Patients using at least one tablet per week for at least six months were classified as regular aspirin users. Unconditional logistic regression was used to compute crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: Pancreatic cancer risk in aspirin users was not changed relative to non-users (adjusted OR = 1.00; 95% CI 0.72–1.39). No significant change in risk was found in relation to greater frequency or prolonged duration of use, in the total sample or in either gender. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that regular aspirin use may not be associated with lower risk of pancreatic cancer

A systematic review of correlates of sedentary behaviour in adults aged 18–65 years: a socio-ecological approach

Background: Recent research shows that sedentary behaviour is associated with adverse cardio-metabolic consequences even among those considered sufficiently physically active. In order to successfully develop interventions to address this unhealthy behaviour, factors that influence sedentariness need to be identified and fully understood. The aim of this review is to identify individual, social, environmental, and policy-related determinants or correlates of sedentary behaviours among adults aged 18-65 years. Methods: PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO and Web of Science were searched for articles published between January 2000 and September 2015. The search strategy was based on four key elements and their synonyms: (a) sedentary behaviour (b) correlates (c) types of sedentary behaviours (d) types of correlates. Articles were included if information relating to sedentary behaviour in adults (18-65 years) was reported. Studies on samples selected by disease were excluded. The full protocol is available from PROSPERO (PROSPERO 2014:CRD42014009823). Results: 74 original studies were identified out of 4041: 71 observational, two qualitative and one experimental study. Sedentary behaviour was primarily measured as self-reported screen leisure time and total sitting time. In 15 studies, objectively measured total sedentary time was reported: accelerometry (n = 14) and heart rate (n = 1). Individual level factors such as age, physical activity levels, body mass index, socio-economic status and mood were all significantly correlated with sedentariness. A trend towards increased amounts of leisure screen time was identified in those married or cohabiting while having children resulted in less total sitting time. Several environmental correlates were identified including proximity of green space, neighbourhood walkability and safety and weather. Conclusions: Results provide further evidence relating to several already recognised individual level factors and preliminary evidence relating to social and environmental factors that should be further investigated. Most studies relied upon cross-sectional design limiting causal inference and the heterogeneity of the sedentary measures prevented direct comparison of findings. Future research necessitates longitudinal study designs, exploration of policy-related factors, further exploration of environmental factors, analysis of inter-relationships between identified factors and better classification of sedentary behaviour domains

Slab melting as a barrier to deep carbon subduction

Interactions between crustal and mantle reservoirs dominate the surface inventory of volatile elements over geological time, moderating atmospheric composition and maintaining a lifesupporting planet1. While volcanoes expel volatile components into surface reservoirs, subduction of oceanic crust is responsible for replenishment of mantle reservoirs2,3. Many natural, ‘superdeep’ diamonds originating in the deep upper mantle and transition zone host mineral inclusions, indicating an affinity to subducted oceanic crust4–7. Here we show that the majority of slab geotherms will intersect a deep depression along the melting curve of carbonated oceanic crust at depths of approximately 300 to 700 kilometres, creating a barrier to direct carbonate recycling into the deep mantle. Low-degree partial melts are alkaline carbonatites that are highly reactive with reduced ambient mantle, producing diamond. Many inclusions in superdeep diamonds are best explained by carbonate melt–peridotite reaction. A deep carbon barrier may dominate the recycling of carbon in the mantle and contribute to chemical and isotopic heterogeneity of the mantle reservoir

GOODS-ALMA: The slow downfall of star formation in z = 2–3 massive galaxies

We investigate the properties of a sample of 35 galaxies, detected with the Atacama Large Millimeter/Submillimeter Array (ALMA) at 1.1 mm in the GOODS-ALMA field (area of 69 arcmin2, resolution = 0.60″, rms ≃ 0.18 mJy beam−1). Using the ultraviolet-to-radio deep multiwavelength coverage of the GOODS–South field, we fit the spectral energy distributions of these galaxies to derive their key physical properties. The galaxies detected by ALMA are among the most massive at z = 2−4 (M⋆, med = 8.5 × 1010 M⊙) and they are either starburst or located in the upper part of the galaxy star-forming main sequence. A significant portion of our galaxy population (∼40%), located at z ∼ 2.5 − 3, exhibits abnormally low gas fractions. The sizes of these galaxies, measured with ALMA, are compatible with the trend between the rest-frame 5000 Å size and stellar mass observed for z ∼ 2 elliptical galaxies, suggesting that they are building compact bulges. We show that there is a strong link between star formation surface density (at 1.1 mm) and gas depletion time: The more compact a galaxy’s star-forming region is, the shorter its lifetime will be (without gas replenishment). The identified compact sources associated with relatively short depletion timescales (∼100 Myr) are the ideal candidates to be the progenitors of compact elliptical galaxies at z ∼ 2

Dysconnection in schizophrenia: from abnormal synaptic plasticity to failures of self-monitoring

Over the last 2 decades, a large number of neurophysiological and neuroimaging studies of patients with schizophrenia have furnished in vivo evidence for dysconnectivity, ie, abnormal functional integration of brain processes. While the evidence for dysconnectivity in schizophrenia is strong, its etiology, pathophysiological mechanisms, and significance for clinical symptoms are unclear. First, dysconnectivity could result from aberrant wiring of connections during development, from aberrant synaptic plasticity, or from both. Second, it is not clear how schizophrenic symptoms can be understood mechanistically as a consequence of dysconnectivity. Third, if dysconnectivity is the primary pathophysiology, and not just an epiphenomenon, then it should provide a mechanistic explanation for known empirical facts about schizophrenia. This article addresses these 3 issues in the framework of the dysconnection hypothesis. This theory postulates that the core pathology in schizophrenia resides in aberrant N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDAR)–mediated synaptic plasticity due to abnormal regulation of NMDARs by neuromodulatory transmitters like dopamine, serotonin, or acetylcholine. We argue that this neurobiological mechanism can explain failures of self-monitoring, leading to a mechanistic explanation for first-rank symptoms as pathognomonic features of schizophrenia, and may provide a basis for future diagnostic classifications with physiologically defined patient subgroups. Finally, we test the explanatory power of our theory against a list of empirical facts about schizophrenia

GOODS-ALMA: Using IRAC and VLA to probe fainter millimeter galaxies

In this paper, we extend the source detection in the GOODS-ALMA field (69 arcmin2, 1σ ≃ 0.18 mJy beam−1) to deeper levels than presented in our previous work. Using positional information at 3.6 and 4.5 μm (from Spitzer-IRAC) as well as the Very Large Array (VLA) at 3 GHz, we explore the presence of galaxies detected at 1.1 mm with ALMA below our original blind detection limit of 4.8-σ, at which the number of spurious sources starts to dominate over that of real sources. In order to ensure the most reliable counterpart association possible, we have investigated the astrometry differences between different instruments in the GOODS–South field. In addition to a global offset between the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) and the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) already discussed in previous studies, we have highlighted a local offset between ALMA and the HST that was artificially introduced in the process of building the mosaic of the GOODS–South image. We created a distortion map that can be used to correct for these astrometric issues. In this Supplementary Catalog, we find a total of 16 galaxies, including two galaxies with no counterpart in HST images (also known as optically dark galaxies), down to a 5σ limiting depth of H = 28.2 AB (HST/WFC3 F160W). This brings the total sample of GOODS-ALMA 1.1 mm sources to 35 galaxies. Galaxies in the new sample cover a wider dynamic range in redshift (z = 0.65−4.73), are on average twice as large (1.3 vs 0.65 kpc), and have lower stellar masses (M⋆SC = 7.6 × 1010 M⊙ vs M⋆MC = 1.2 × 1011 M⊙). Although exhibiting larger physical sizes, these galaxies still have far-infrared sizes that are significantly more compact than inferred from their optical emission