Modeled climate change effects on distributions of Canadian butterfly species

Abstract: Climate change effects on biodiversity are being documented now frequently in the form of changes in phenology and distributional shifts. However, the form that these effects will take over a longer timespan is unclear; for this understanding, a quantitative, validated, predictive approach is key. Here, we use ecological niche modeling and general circulation model outputs to estimate future potential geographic distributions of 111 Canadian butterfly species. We develop future estimates under two emission scenarios from each of two climate change modeling centers; future projections for biodiversity are not only scenario dependent (more severe emission scenarios produce more severe effects on species’ distributions) but also model dependent (the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis results were more severe than the Hadley Centre results). One interesting feature is the appearance of disjunctions in species’ distributions, hence creating “vicariant events” over very short time periods. In general, however, a cost of 1%–3% additional loss of species’ distributions is associated with more severe scenarios of emissions and climate change, suggesting that subtle biodiversity consequences are associated with the different climate futures debated in political circles. Résumé : La littérature scientifique courante traite fréquemment des effets des changements climatiques sur la biodiversité, particulièrement en ce qui a trait aux changements phénologiques et aux modifications des répartitions géographiques. Cependant, la forme que prendront ces effets sur une échelle temporelle plus longue reste à préciser, car pour ce faire il est nécessaire d’avoir recours à une approche quantitative, validée et prédictive. Les résultats d’une modélisation de la niche écologique et de modèles de circulation générale nous ont servi à estimer la répartition géographique potentielle future de 111 espèces de papillons canadiens. Nous avons basé nos prédictions sur deux scénarios d’émissions provenant de deux centres de modélisation du climat; ces prédictions de la biodiversité dépendent non seulement du scénario choisi (les scénarios d’émissions plus importantes produisent des effets plus marqués sur la répartition des espèces), mais aussi du modèle retenu (les résultats du Centre canadien pour la modélisation et l’analyse du climatique sont plus rigoureux que ceux du Centre Hadley). Une caractéristique intéressante est l’apparition de fragmentations dans la répartition des espèces, ce qui crée des « événements de vicariance » sur de très courtes périodes. En général, cependant, un coût de 1 % – 3 % en perte additionnelle dans les répartitions accompagne les scénarios les plus rigoureux de changement climatique, ce qui indique que les conséquences sur la biodiversité des divers scénarios climatiques futurs discutés dans les milieux politiques sont assez subtiles. [Traduit par la Rédaction

Using Biotic Interaction Networks for Prediction in Biodiversity and Emerging Diseases

Abstract: Networks offer a powerful tool for understanding and visualizing inter-species ecological and evolutionary interactions. Previously considered examples, such as trophic networks, are just representations of experimentally observed direct interactions. However, species interactions are so rich and complex it is not feasible to directly observe more than a small fraction. In this paper, using data mining techniques, we show how potential interactions can be inferred from geographic data, rather than by direct observation. An important application area for this methodology is that of emerging diseases, where, often, little is known about inter-species interactions, such as between vectors and reservoirs. Here, we show how using geographic data, biotic interaction networks that model statistical dependencies between species distributions can be used to infer and understand inter-species interactions. Furthermore, we show how such networks can be used to build prediction models. For example, for predicting the most important reservoirs of a disease, or the degree of disease risk associated with a geographical area. We illustrate the general methodology by considering an important emerging disease -Leishmaniasis. This data mining methodology allows for the use of geographic data to construct inferential biotic interaction networks which can then be used to build prediction models with a wide range of applications in ecology, biodiversity and emerging diseases

Using Biotic Interaction Networks for Prediction in Biodiversity and Emerging Diseases

Networks offer a powerful tool for understanding and visualizing inter-species ecological and evolutionary interactions. Previously considered examples, such as trophic networks, are just representations of experimentally observed direct interactions. However, species interactions are so rich and complex it is not feasible to directly observe more than a small fraction. In this paper, using data mining techniques, we show how potential interactions can be inferred from geographic data, rather than by direct observation. An important application area for this methodology is that of emerging diseases, where, often, little is known about inter-species interactions, such as between vectors and reservoirs. Here, we show how using geographic data, biotic interaction networks that model statistical dependencies between species distributions can be used to infer and understand inter-species interactions. Furthermore, we show how such networks can be used to build prediction models. For example, for predicting the most important reservoirs of a disease, or the degree of disease risk associated with a geographical area. We illustrate the general methodology by considering an important emerging disease - Leishmaniasis. This data mining methodology allows for the use of geographic data to construct inferential biotic interaction networks which can then be used to build prediction models with a wide range of applications in ecology, biodiversity and emerging diseases

Leishmania (L.) mexicana infected bats in Mexico: novel potential reservoirs

Leishmania (Leishmania) mexicana causes cutaneous leishmaniasis, an endemic zoonosis affecting a growing number of patients in the southeastern states of Mexico. Some foci are found in shade-grown cocoa and coffee plantations, or near perennial forests that provide rich breeding grounds for the sand fly vectors, but also harbor a variety of bat species that live off the abundant fruits provided by these shade-giving trees. The close proximity between sand flies and bats makes their interaction feasible, yet bats infected with Leishmania (L.) mexicana have not been reported. Here we analyzed 420 bats from six states of Mexico that had reported patients with leishmaniasis. Tissues of bats, including skin, heart, liver and/or spleen were screened by PCR for Leishmania (L.) mexicana DNA. We found that 41 bats (9.77%), belonging to 13 species, showed positive PCR results in various tissues. The infected tissues showed no evidence of macroscopic lesions. Of the infected bats, 12 species were frugivorous, insectivorous or nectarivorous, and only one species was sanguivorous (Desmodus rotundus), and most of them belonged to the family Phyllostomidae. The eco-region where most of the infected bats were caught is the Gulf Coastal Plain of Chiapas and Tabasco. Through experimental infections of two Tadarida brasiliensis bats in captivity, we show that this species can harbor viable, infective Leishmania (L.) mexicana parasites that are capable of infecting BALB/c mice. We conclude that various species of bats belonging to the family Phyllostomidae are possible reservoir hosts for Leishmania (L.) mexicana, if it can be shown that such bats are infective for the sand fly vector. Further studies are needed to determine how these bats become infected, how long the parasite remains viable inside these potential hosts and whether they are infective to sand flies to fully evaluate their impact on disease epidemiology

Photography-based taxonomy is inadequate, unnecessary, and potentially harmful for biological sciences

The question whether taxonomic descriptions naming new animal species without type specimen(s) deposited in collections should be accepted for publication by scientific journals and allowed by the Code has already been discussed in Zootaxa (Dubois & Nemésio 2007; Donegan 2008, 2009; Nemésio 2009a–b; Dubois 2009; Gentile & Snell 2009; Minelli 2009; Cianferoni & Bartolozzi 2016; Amorim et al. 2016). This question was again raised in a letter supported by 35 signatories published in the journal Nature (Pape et al. 2016) on 15 September 2016. On 25 September 2016, the following rebuttal (strictly limited to 300 words as per the editorial rules of Nature) was submitted to Nature, which on 18 October 2016 refused to publish it. As we think this problem is a very important one for zoological taxonomy, this text is published here exactly as submitted to Nature, followed by the list of the 493 taxonomists and collection-based researchers who signed it in the short time span from 20 September to 6 October 2016

Propuesta de diseño de plan estratégico de seguridad vial, para la empresa consultoría y servicios ambientales CIAN S.A.S.

La propuesta del diseño del Plan Estratégico de Seguridad Vial, tiene como finalidad, la intervención del riesgo en las vías, ayudando a reducir el índice de accidentalidad en estas, que durante el desarrollo de las actividades por parte de los colaboradores en las carreteras, se ven involucrados frecuentemente en accidentes que varían desde leves hasta mortales, generando atrasos en los procesos, sobrecostos en el desarrollo de actividades y pérdidas irreparables; esta reducción en la accidentalidad se logra con el diseño e implementación de estrategias que permitan crear nuevos hábitos de manejo seguro en los operarios para la preservación de la vida. Teniendo como guía la normatividad vigente, y el diseño del Plan estratégico de seguridad vial (PESV), se busca no solo reducir el índice de accidentalidad, sino también dar cumplimiento a la normatividad aplicable. El diseño cuantitativo de tipo descriptivo, que se empleó en ésta investigación, buscó especificar las propiedades importantes de los colaboradores de la empresa, del fenómeno a investigar, en éste caso el tema de seguridad vial, para dar así, estrategias adecuadas, para prevenir la ocurrencia de incidentes y/o accidentes viales.Tabla de Contenidos Introducción 12 Resumen 14 Abstract 15 1. Título 17 2. Problema de investigación 17 2.1 Descripción del problema 17 2.2 Formulación del problema 17 3. Objetivos 20 3.1 Objetivos generales 20 3.2 Objetivos específicos 20 4. Justificación y delimitación 22 4.1 Justificación 22 4.2 Delimitación 23 4.3 Limitaciones 23 4.3.1 Financiera 23 4.3.2 Temporal 23 4.3.3 Confidencialidad 24 5. Marcos de referencia 24 5.1 Estados del arte 24 5.1.1 Nacional 24 5.1.1.1 Análisis de la Capacidad de la Gestión de la Seguridad Vial Colombia 24 5.1.1.2 Diseño de un Plan de Seguridad Vial para el Contrato 25 5.1.1.3 Diseño del Plan Estratégico de Seguridad Vial para AgroValle S.A.S 25 5.1.1.4 Plan Local de Seguridad Vial -Calarcá Quindío Colombia 26 5.1.1.5 Diseño del Plan Estratégico de Seguridad Vial de HS&E LTDA 28 5.1.1.6 Señalización y seguridad vial en buses de tránsito rápido 28 5.1.1.7. Seguridad vial, un desafío de salud pública en la Colombia del siglo 29 5.1.1.8 Herramienta para el diseño, ejecución y revisión del PESV 29 5.1.2 Internacional 31 5.1.2.1 Evaluación y gestión estratégica para la seguridad vial: Juárez 31 5.1.2.2 Experiencia metodológica en la capacitación de promotores de seguridad 32 5.1.2.3 El derecho a la seguridad vial como necesidad y demanda social 33 5.1.2.4 Significancia de la seguridad vial en un desarrollo sostenible. 34 5.1.2.5 Guía práctica para el diseño e implementación de políticas seguridad 35 5.1.2.6 Metodología para Elaborar Planes de Seguridad Vial Motociclistas 38 5.1.2.7 El impacto de las nuevas políticas de seguridad vial sobre la conducta 39 5.2 Marco teórico 42 5.2.1 Observación nacional 42 5.2.1.1 Definición de seguridad vial 43 5.2.1.2 Seguridad vial y el Estado 45 5.1.2.3 Accidente de tránsito 45 5.1.2.3.1Accidente 46 5.1.2.3.2 Accidente de tránsito laboral 46 5.1.2.3.3 Accidente de tránsito “in Itinere”. 46 5.1.2.3.5 Accidente de tránsito en Colombia 46 5.2.1 Observación Internacional 50 5.2.1.1. Modelo de gestión por procesos de seguridad vial 50 5.2.1.2 Educación en seguridad vial. 51 5.2.1.3 Medidas para crear la cultura vial. 52 5.3. Marco Legal 57 5.3.1 Marco Legal Nacional 57 5.3.2 Marco Legal Internacional 63 5.3.2.1 Ley General de Seguridad Vial 63 6. Marco metodológico de la investigación 69 6.1. Fases del estudio 69 6.1.1 Diagnóstico 69 6.1.2 Evaluación 69 6.1.3 Diseño estructura documental del PESV 70 6.2 Recolección de la información 70 7. Resultados 71 7.1 Diagrama de Gantt 70 7.2 Análisis e interpretación de los resultados 70 7.2.1 Diagnóstico 70 7.2.2 Evaluación 75 7.2.3 Diseño estructura documental del PESV 76 7.2.3.1 Objetivo y alcance 76 7.2.3.1.1 Alcance 76 7.2.3.2 Responsables 76 7.2.3.2.1 Coordinador HSE 76 7.2.3.2.2 Supervisor HSE 77 7.2.3.2.3 Conductores 78 7.2.3.3 Desarrollo 80 7.2.3.3.1 Planificación del PESV 80 7.2.3.3.2 Objetivos y metas del PESV 86 7.2.3.4 Implementación y ejecución del PESV 86 7.2.3.4.1 Plan anual de trabajo 86 7.2.3.4.2 Competencias 87 7.2.3.4.3 Plan anual de formación 89 7.2.3.4.4 Plan de preparación y respuesta a emergencias 89 7.2.3.4.5 Investigación interna de siniestros viales 89 7.2.3.4.6 Capacitación en estándares de seguridad vial 90 7.2.3.4.7 Motivación continua hacia el manejo defensivo 90 7.2.3.4.8 Revisión periódica de vehículos 91 7.2.3.4.9 Análisis y evaluación de accidentes de tránsito 91 7.2.3.4.10 Revisión de permisos de conducción 91 7.2.3.4.11 Divulgación de información vial 91 7.2.3.4.12 Vehículos 92 7.2.3.4.13 Indicaciones mecánicas y de seguridad 92 7.2.3.4.14 Cinturones de seguridad 92 7.2.3.4.15 Equipos de prevención y seguridad 92 7.2.3.4.16 Seguros obligatorios 93 7.2.3.4.17 Alarmas de retroceso o pito de reversa 93 7.2.3.4.18 Restricciones y prohibiciones 93 8. Análisis financiero 100 9. Conclusiones y recomendaciones 102 9.1 Conclusiones 102 9.2 Recomendaciones 102 10 Referencias bibliográficas y webgrafía 105EspecializaciónEspecialista en Gerencia de la Seguridad y Salud en el TrabajoEspecialización en Gerencia de la Seguridad y Salud en el Trabaj

Bayesian Inference of Ecological Interactions from Spatial Data

The characterization and quantification of ecological interactions and the construction of species’ distributions and their associated ecological niches are of fundamental theoretical and practical importance. In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian inference framework, which, using spatial data, offers a general formalism within which ecological interactions may be characterized and quantified. Interactions are identified through deviations of the spatial distribution of co-occurrences of spatial variables relative to a benchmark for the non-interacting system and based on a statistical ensemble of spatial cells. The formalism allows for the integration of both biotic and abiotic factors of arbitrary resolution. We concentrate on the conceptual and mathematical underpinnings of the formalism, showing how, using the naive Bayes approximation, it can be used to not only compare and contrast the relative contribution from each variable, but also to construct species’ distributions and ecological niches based on an arbitrary variable type. We also show how non-linear interactions between distinct niche variables can be identified and the degree of confounding between variables accounted for

Data from: Solitary ecology as a phenomenon extending beyond insular systems: exaptive evolution in Anolis lizards

The mechanisms driving phenotypic evolution have been of interest to biologists since Darwin. Ecological release—wherein adaptive evolution occurs following relaxation of constraining selective pressures—and environmental filtering—wherein exaptive traits allow colonization of a new area—have been studied in several insular cases. Anolis lizards, which may exist in solitude or sympatry with multiple congeners, are an excellent system for evaluating whether ecological release and environmental filtering are associated with phenotypic shifts across phylogenetic and geographical scales. Insular solitary Anolis exhibit phenotypic differentiation in body size and sexual size dimorphism—SSD—through exaptive and adaptive evolution, respectively. But, the generality of these effects has not yet been addressed. Here, we analyse the evolution of body size and SSD relative to sympatry in mainland Anolis. We found that mainland species co-occurring with few congeners exhibit uniform body size and greater SSD relative to other random mainland assemblages, consistent with the insular solitary pattern. The locations of evolutionary shifts for both traits do not coincide with evolutionary transitions to decreased levels of sympatry. These results are consistent with exaptive environmental filtering but not adaptive ecological release. Future studies should be conducted at local scales to evaluate the role of these factors in the evolution of solitary existence in mainland and island species