32 research outputs found

    The most powerful astrophysical events: Gravitational-wave peak luminosity of binary black holes as predicted by numerical relativity

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    For a brief moment, a binary black hole (BBH) merger can be the most powerful astrophysical event in the visible Universe. Here we present a model fit for this gravitational-wave peak luminosity of nonprecessing quasicircular BBH systems as a function of the masses and spins of the component black holes, based on numerical relativity (NR) simulations and the hierarchical fitting approach introduced by X. Jiménez-Forteza et al. [Phys. Rev. D 95, 064024 (2017).]. This fit improves over previous results in accuracy and parameter-space coverage and can be used to infer posterior distributions for the peak luminosity of future astrophysical signals like GW150914 and GW151226. The model is calibrated to the ℓ≤6 modes of 378 nonprecessing NR simulations up to mass ratios of 18 and dimensionless spin magnitudes up to 0.995, and includes unequal-spin effects. We also constrain the fit to perturbative numerical results for large mass ratios. Studies of key contributions to the uncertainty in NR peak luminosities, such as (i) mode selection, (ii) finite resolution, (iii) finite extraction radius, and (iv) different methods for converting NR waveforms to luminosity, allow us to use NR simulations from four different codes as a homogeneous calibration set. This study of systematic fits to combined NR and large-mass-ratio data, including higher modes, also paves the way for improved inspiral-merger-ringdown waveform models

    Stress-resilient maize for climate-vulnerable ecologies in the Asian tropics

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    Most parts of the Asian tropics are hotspots of climate change effects and associated weather variabilities. One of the major challenges with climate change is the uncertainty and inter-annual variability in weather conditions as crops are frequently exposed to different weather extremes within the same season. Therefore, agricultural research must strive to develop new crop varieties with inbuilt resilience towards variable weather conditions rather than merely tolerance to individual stresses in a specific situation and/or at a specific crop stage. C4 crops are known for their wider adaptation to range of climatic conditions. However, recent climatic trends and associated variabilities seem to be challenging the threshold limit of wider adaptability of even C4 crops like maize. In collaboration with national programs and private sector partners in the region, CIMMYT-Asia maize program initiated research for development (R4D) projects largely focusing on saving achievable yields across range of variable environments by incorporating reasonable levels of tolerance/resistance to major abiotic and biotic stresses without compromising on grain yields under optimal growing conditions. By integrating novel breeding tools like - genomics, double haploid (DH) technology, precision phenotyping and reducing genotype × environment interaction effects, a new generation of maize germplasm with multiple stress tolerance that can grow well across variable weather conditions were developed. The new maize germplasm were targeted for stress-prone environments where maize is invariability exposed to a range of sub-optimal growing conditions, such as drought, heat, waterlogging and various virulent diseases. The overarching goal of the stress-resilient maize program has been to achieve yield potential with a downside risk reduction

    Maize for Changing Climate - Chasing the Moving Target

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    The average annual growth rate of harvested maize area from 1993 to 2013 was 2.7% in Africa, 3.1% in Asia, and 4.6% in Latin America (FAOSTAT, 2018). Maize has emerged as the cereal with largest global production, which surpassed rice in 1996 and wheat in 1997, and its production is increasing at twice the annual rate of rice and three times that of wheat (Fischer et al., 2014). Among cereals, including rice, wheat and other coarse cereal, maize has recorded highest increase in area and productivity during 2006-2015 and is projected to keep the momentum during 2016-2025 (OECD/FAO, 2016). Asia, with its 31% share in global maize production from about 34.0% of the total global area harvested, is the second largest maize producer in the world. The current decade continued impressive growth in maize production, as all the sub-regions showed significant increase in maize production (Figure 1), including Southeast Asia -10.8%, Southern Asia - 27.3% and East Asia - 30.6%, which resulted in an overall 27.7% maize production increase in Asia within a short period of 2010-2016 (FAOSTAT, 2018). These gains in maize production were contributed by increase in productivity per unit area and increase in maize growing areas in some countries

    The global, regional, and national burden of adult lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancer in 204 countries and territories:A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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    Importance Lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancers are important contributors to cancer burden worldwide, and a comprehensive evaluation of their burden globally, regionally, and nationally is crucial for effective policy planning.Objective To analyze the total and risk-attributable burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) for 204 countries and territories and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates.Evidence Review The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to LOC and OPC from 1990 to 2019 were estimated using GBD 2019 methods. The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of deaths and DALYs for LOC and OPC attributable to smoking, tobacco, and alcohol consumption in 2019.Findings In 2019, 370 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 338 000-401 000) cases and 199 000 (95% UI, 181 000-217 000) deaths for LOC and 167 000 (95% UI, 153 000-180 000) cases and 114 000 (95% UI, 103 000-126 000) deaths for OPC were estimated to occur globally, contributing 5.5 million (95% UI, 5.0-6.0 million) and 3.2 million (95% UI, 2.9-3.6 million) DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, low-middle and low SDI regions consistently showed the highest age-standardized mortality rates due to LOC and OPC, while the high SDI strata exhibited age-standardized incidence rates decreasing for LOC and increasing for OPC. Globally in 2019, smoking had the greatest contribution to risk-attributable OPC deaths for both sexes (55.8% [95% UI, 49.2%-62.0%] of all OPC deaths in male individuals and 17.4% [95% UI, 13.8%-21.2%] of all OPC deaths in female individuals). Smoking and alcohol both contributed to substantial LOC deaths globally among male individuals (42.3% [95% UI, 35.2%-48.6%] and 40.2% [95% UI, 33.3%-46.8%] of all risk-attributable cancer deaths, respectively), while chewing tobacco contributed to the greatest attributable LOC deaths among female individuals (27.6% [95% UI, 21.5%-33.8%]), driven by high risk-attributable burden in South and Southeast Asia.Conclusions and Relevance In this systematic analysis, disparities in LOC and OPC burden existed across the SDI spectrum, and a considerable percentage of burden was attributable to tobacco and alcohol use. These estimates can contribute to an understanding of the distribution and disparities in LOC and OPC burden globally and support cancer control planning efforts

    The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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    Background In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings There were 1.19 million (95% UI 1.11-1.28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59.6 [54.5-65.7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53.2 [48.8-57.9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14.2 [12.9-15.6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13.6 [12.6-14.8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23.5 million (21.9-25.2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2.7% (1.9-3.6) came from YLDs and 97.3% (96.4-98.1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

    Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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    Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

    To compare Pulmonary function test at base line (on conventional medical treatment) and after 6 weeks of home based pulmonary rehabilitation program

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    Background &Method: This study was conducted at GMC, Bhopal with aim to compare Pulmonary function test at base line (on conventional medical treatment) and after 6 weeks of home based pulmonary rehabilitation program. This consisted of inhaled salbutamol (100-200g 04-06 times per day) and inhaled ipratropium bromide 02 inhalations 03-04 times per day. Patients were also advised to take additional inhalations of salbutamol as and when they felt the need. Result: The 6 MWD increased from 380.30±22.9 at the first baseline evaluation to 406.92±95.62 at the time of second evolution. These changes were statistically significant. The VAS rating decreased from 30±16.31 at the first baseline evaluation to 20±13.82 at the time of second evaluation. This change was statistically significant. FVCex changed increased from 2.3±0.92 to 2.3±0.9 at the time of the second evaluation after 6 weeks of the exercise training program. This change was not statistically significant. The FVCex % increased from 67.92±12.25 at the first baseline evaluation to 70.41±5.36 at the time of second evaluation after 6 weeks of exercise training program. This change was statistically significant. FEVI increased from 1.890±0.87 to 1.97±0.61 at the time of the second evaluation after 6 weeks of the exercise training program. This change was statistically significant. The FEVI % decreased from 68.04±16.32 at the first baseline evaluation to 70.86± 19.18 at the time of second evaluation. This change was statistically significant. The FEV1/ FVCex decreased from 0.86 ± 0.09to 0.85 ± 0.6 at second evaluation. The change was not significant statistically. Conclusion: A six week home based pulmonary rehabilitation program consisting of exercise training and patient education was effective significantly in increasing exercise endurance and reducing the severity of dyspnoea and improving the quality of life in patients with stable COPD and bronchial asthma

    To test the accuracy of a new anthropometric parameter, Waist to BSA ratio in predicting myocardial infarction

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    Background &Method: Present study was carried out with an aim to test the accuracy of a new anthropometric parameter, Waist to BSA ratio in predicting myocardial infarction, Patients with acute coronary syndrome having ST segment elevation or non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction diagnosed by ECG and Troponin I levels, admitted in ICCU of GMC, BHOPAL. Result: Waist to hip ratio, waist to height ratio, waist to BSA ratio and waist circumference, all were better anthropometric parameters than BMI to predict myocardial infarction in Indian population. Conclusion: Waist to hip ratio, waist to height ratio, waist to BSA ratio and waist circumference, all were better anthropometric parameters than BMI to predict myocardial infarction in Indian population. Waist to BSA was a good anthropometric parameter to predict myocardial infarction in Indian population. Studies involving larger population are required to prove the accuracy of this parameter in predicting coronary artery diseases

    Effect of micronutrients, rhizobium, salicylic acid, and effective microorganisms in plant growth and yield characteristics of green gram [Vigna radiata (L.) Wilczek] in Rupandehi, Nepal

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    Nepal has a very diverse topography and ecosystem, with mountains in the north and lush plains in the south. Despite the diverse ecology, the production of green gram is still in its minority. This experiment was conducted to assess the effect of micronutrients (Zn, B, Mo, Co, and Mn), rhizobium, effective micro-organisms, and salicylic acid in plant growth, yield, and yield attributes of green gram [Vigna radiata (L.) Wilczek] in Rupandehi district of Nepal in March 2021. Pratikshya variety of green gram was used as a test crop. Different levels of ZnSO4 and Borax, Ammonium Molybdate, Cobalt Nitrate, MnSO4, effective microorganism, Mixture, Salicylic acid, and Rhizobia along with control constituted treatments. Various application methods were used for applying treatments including soil incorporation, seed priming, inoculation, and foliar application. The results revealed that leaf area index, number of branches, number of pods per plant, and yield were significantly different (P < 0.05). Among various treatments, the mixture was found most effective in the case of grain yield (1048.1 kg ha−1), stover yield (2472.7 kg ha−1), biological yield (3520.8 kg ha−1), harvest index (31.2%), and the number of primary branches (4.9). Likewise, the number of secondary branches (6.86) was better with Borax@10 kg ha−1. There was no significant difference in the plant height, number of pods per plant, pod length, pod weight, number of grains per pod, and test weight between different treatments. ZnSO4 @ 25 kg ha−1 was found to have an impact on the number of mature, immature, and total pods per plant. Overall, the study concluded that the mixture of all micronutrients performed better in terms of grain yield while zinc sulphate had great potential for plant growth parameters which could improve the farmers’ livelihood. It is recommended to conduct multi-location trials in a larger domain
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