Transit Detection in the MEarth Survey of Nearby M Dwarfs: Bridging the Clean-First, Search-Later Divide

In the effort to characterize the masses, radii, and atmospheres of potentially habitable exoplanets, there is an urgent need to find examples of such planets transiting nearby M dwarfs. The MEarth Project is an ongoing effort to do so, as a ground-based photometric survey designed to detect exoplanets as small as 2 Earth radii transiting mid-to-late M dwarfs within 33 pc of the Sun. Unfortunately, identifying transits of such planets in photometric monitoring is complicated both by the intrinsic stellar variability that is common among these stars and by the nocturnal cadence, atmospheric variations, and instrumental systematics that often plague Earth-bound observatories. Here we summarize the properties of MEarth data gathered so far, and we present a new framework to detect shallow exoplanet transits in wiggly and irregularly-spaced light curves. In contrast to previous methods that clean trends from light curves before searching for transits, this framework assesses the significance of individual transits simultaneously while modeling variability, systematics, and the photometric quality of individual nights. Our Method for Including Starspots and Systematics in the Marginalized Probability of a Lone Eclipse (MISS MarPLE) uses a computationally efficient semi-Bayesian approach to explore the vast probability space spanned by the many parameters of this model, naturally incorporating the uncertainties in these parameters into its evaluation of candidate events. We show how to combine individual transits processed by MISS MarPLE into periodic transiting planet candidates and compare our results to the popular Box-fitting Least Squares (BLS) method with simulations. By applying MISS MarPLE to observations from the MEarth Project, we demonstrate the utility of this framework for robustly assessing the false alarm probability of transit signals in real data. [slightly abridged]Comment: accepted to the Astronomical Journal, 21 pages, 12 figure

Nonlinear modulational stability of periodic traveling-wave solutions of the generalized Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation

In this paper we consider the spectral and nonlinear stability of periodic traveling wave solutions of a generalized Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation. In particular, we resolve the long-standing question of nonlinear modulational stability by demonstrating that spectrally stable waves are nonlinearly stable when subject to small localized (integrable) perturbations. Our analysis is based upon detailed estimates of the linearized solution operator, which are complicated by the fact that the (necessarily essential) spectrum of the associated linearization intersects the imaginary axis at the origin. We carry out a numerical Evans function study of the spectral problem and find bands of spectrally stable periodic traveling waves, in close agreement with previous numerical studies of Frisch-She-Thual, Bar-Nepomnyashchy, Chang-Demekhin-Kopelevich, and others carried out by other techniques. We also compare predictions of the associated Whitham modulation equations, which formally describe the dynamics of weak large scale perturbations of a periodic wave train, with numerical time evolution studies, demonstrating their effectiveness at a practical level. For the reader's convenience, we include in an appendix the corresponding treatment of the Swift-Hohenberg equation, a nonconservative counterpart of the generalized Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation for which the nonlinear stability analysis is considerably simpler, together with numerical Evans function analyses extending spectral stability analyses of Mielke and Schneider.Comment: 78 pages, 11 figure

HAT-P-11b: A Super-Neptune Planet Transiting a Bright K Star in the Kepler Field

We report on the discovery of HAT-P-11b, the smallest radius transiting extrasolar planet (TEP) discovered from the ground, and the first hot Neptune discovered to date by transit searches. HAT-P-11b orbits the bright (V=9.587) and metal rich ([Fe=H] = +0.31 +/- 0.05) K4 dwarf star GSC 03561-02092 with P = 4.8878162 +/- 0.0000071 days and produces a transit signal with depth of 4.2 mmag. We present a global analysis of the available photometric and radial-velocity data that result in stellar and planetary parameters, with simultaneous treatment of systematic variations. The planet, like its near-twin GJ 436b, is somewhat larger than Neptune (17Mearth, 3.8Rearth) both in mass Mp = 0.081 +/- 0.009 MJ (25.8 +/- 2.9 Mearth) and radius Rp = 0.422 +/- 0.014 RJ (4.73 +/- 0.16 Rearth). HAT-P-11b orbits in an eccentric orbit with e = 0.198 +/- 0.046 and omega = 355.2 +/- 17.3, causing a reflex motion of its parent star with amplitude 11.6 +/- 1.2 m/s, a challenging detection due to the high level of chromospheric activity of the parent star. Our ephemeris for the transit events is Tc = 2454605.89132 +/- 0.00032 (BJD), with duration 0.0957 +/- 0.0012 d, and secondary eclipse epoch of 2454608.96 +/- 0.15 d (BJD). The basic stellar parameters of the host star are M* = 0.809+0.020-0.027 Msun, R* = 0.752 +/- 0.021 Rsun and Teff = 4780 +/- 50 K. Importantly, HAT-P-11 will lie on one of the detectors of the forthcoming Kepler mission. We discuss an interesting constraint on the eccentricity of the system by the transit light curve and stellar parameters. We also present a blend analysis, that for the first time treats the case of a blended transiting hot Jupiter mimicing a transiting hot Neptune, and proves that HAT-P-11b is not such a blend.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ, 24 pages, 14 figures, 6 tables. All RV data presented in this versio

Chronic pancreatitis of the pancreatic remnant is an independent risk factor for pancreatic fistula after distal pancreatectomy

Background: There is an ongoing debate about the best closure technique after distal pancreatectomy (DP). The aim of the closure is to prevent the formation of a clinically relevant post-operative pancreatic fistula (POPF). Stapler technique seems to be equal compared with hand-sewn closure of the remnant. For both techniques, a fistula rate of approximately 30% has been reported. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed our DPs between 01/2000 and 12/2010. In all cases, the pancreatic duct was over sewn with a separately stitched ligation of the pancreatic duct (5*0 PDS) followed by a single-stitched hand-sewn closure of the residual pancreatic gland. The POPF was classified according to the criteria of the International Study Group for Pancreatic Fistula (ISGPF). Univariate and multivariate analyses of potential risk factors for the formation of POPF were performed. Indications for operations included cystic tumors (n = 53), neuroendocrine tumors (n = 27), adenocarcinoma (n = 22), chronic pancreatitis (n = 9), metastasis (n = 6), and others (n = 7). Results: During the period, we performed 124 DPs (♀ = 74, ♂ = 50). The mean age was 57.5 years (18–82). The POPF rates according to the ISGPF criteria were: no fistula, 54.8% (n = 68); grade A, 24.2% (n = 30); grade B, 19.3% (n = 24); and grade C, 1.7% (n = 2). Therefore, in 21.0% (n = 26) of the cases, a clinically relevant pancreatic fistula occurred. The mean postoperative stay was significantly higher after grade B/C fistula (26.3 days) compared with no fistula/grade A fistula (13.7 days) (p < 0.05). The uni- and multivariate analyses showed chronic pancreatitis of the pancreatic remnant to be an independent risk factor for the development of POPF (p = 0.004 OR 7.09). Conclusion: By using a standardized hand-sewn closure technique of the pancreatic remnant after DP with separately stitched ligation of the pancreatic duct, a comparably low fistula rate can be achieved. Signs of chronic pancreatitis of the pancreatic remnant may represent a risk factor for the development of a pancreatic fistula after DP and therefore an anastomosis of the remnant to the intestine should be considered

The Mass of KOI-94d and a Relation for Planet Radius, Mass, and Incident Flux

We measure the mass of a modestly irradiated giant planet, KOI-94d. We wish to determine whether this planet, which is in a 22 day orbit and receives 2700 times as much incident flux as Jupiter, is as dense as Jupiter or rarefied like inflated hot Jupiters. KOI-94 also hosts at least three smaller transiting planets, all of which were detected by the Kepler mission. With 26 radial velocities of KOI-94 from the W. M. Keck Observatory and a simultaneous fit to the Kepler light curve, we measure the mass of the giant planet and determine that it is not inflated. Support for the planetary interpretation of the other three candidates comes from gravitational interactions through transit timing variations, the statistical robustness of multi-planet systems against false positives, and several lines of evidence that no other star resides within the photometric aperture. We report the properties of KOI-94b (M_P = 10.5 ± 4.6 M_⊕, R_P = 1.71 ± 0.16 R_⊕, P = 3.74 days), KOI-94c (M_P = 15.6^(+5.7)_(-15.6) M_⊕, R_P = 4.32 ± 0.41 R_⊕, P = 10.4 days), KOI-94d (M_P = 106 ± 11 M_⊕, R_P = 11.27 ± 1.06 R_⊕, P = 22.3 days), and KOI-94e (M_P = 35^(+18)_(-28) M_⊕, R_P = 6.56 ± 0.62 R_⊕, P = 54.3 days). The radial velocity analyses of KOI-94b and KOI-94e offer marginal (>2σ) mass detections, whereas the observations of KOI-94c offer only an upper limit to its mass. Using the KOI-94 system and other planets with published values for both mass and radius (138 exoplanets total, including 35 with M_P 150 M_⊕. These equations can be used to predict the radius or mass of a planet

A Scoping Review of Frailty and Acute Care in Middle-Aged and Older Individuals with Recommendations for Future Research

There is general agreement that frailty is a state of heightened vulnerability to stressors arising from impairments in multiple systems leading to declines in homeostatic reserve and resiliency, but unresolved issues persist about its detection, underlying pathophysiology, and relationship with aging, disability, and multimorbidity. A particularly challenging area is the relationship between frailty and hospitalization. Based on the deliberations of a 2014 Canadian expert consultation meeting and a scoping review of the relevant literature between 2005 and 2015, this discussion paper presents a review of the current state of knowledge on frailty in the acute care setting, including its prevalence and ability to both predict the occurrence and outcomes of hospitalization. The examination of the available evidence highlighted a number of specific clinical and research topics requiring additional study. We conclude with a series of consensus recommendations regarding future research priorities in this important area

Metallicity and Temperature Indicators in M dwarf K band Spectra: Testing New & Updated Calibrations With Observations of 133 Solar Neighborhood M dwarfs

We present K band spectra for 133 nearby (d < 33 parsecs) M dwarfs, including 18 M dwarfs with reliable metallicity estimates (as inferred from an FGK type companion), 11 M dwarf planet hosts, more than 2/3 of the M dwarfs in the Northern 8 pc sample, and several M dwarfs from the LSPM catalog. From these spectra, we measure equivalent widths of the Ca and Na lines, and a spectral index quantifying the absorption due to H2O opacity (the H2O-K2 index). Using empirical spectral types standards and synthetic models, we calibrate the H2O-K2 index as an indicator of an M dwarf's spectral type and effective temperature. We also present a revised relationship that estimates the [Fe/H] and [M/H] metallicities of M dwarfs from their Na I, Ca I, and H2O-K2 measurements. Comparisons to model atmosphere provide a qualitative validation of our approach, but also reveal an overall offset between the atomic line strengths predicted by models as compared to actual observations. Our metallicity estimates also reproduce expected correlations with Galactic space motions and H alpha emission line strengths, and return statistically identical metallicities for M dwarfs within a common multiple system. Finally, we find systematic residuals between our H2O-based spectral types and those derived from optical spectral features with previously known sensitivity to stellar metallicity, such as TiO, and identify the CaH1 index as a promising optical index for diagnosing the metallicities of near-solar M dwarfs.Comment: 132 pages, 48 figures. Paper resubmitted to Ap

Transits of Known Planets Orbiting a Naked-Eye Star

© 2020 The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Some of the most scientifically valuable transiting planets are those that were already known from radial velocity (RV) surveys. This is primarily because their orbits are well characterized and they preferentially orbit bright stars that are the targets of RV surveys. The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) provides an opportunity to survey most of the known exoplanet systems in a systematic fashion to detect possible transits of their planets. HD 136352 (Nu2 Lupi) is a naked-eye (V = 5.78) G-type main-sequence star that was discovered to host three planets with orbital periods of 11.6, 27.6, and 108.1 days via RV monitoring with the High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher (HARPS) spectrograph. We present the detection and characterization of transits for the two inner planets of the HD 136352 system, revealing radii of 1.482-0.056+0.058 R ⊕ and 2.608-0.077+0.078 R ⊕ for planets b and c, respectively. We combine new HARPS observations with RV data from the Keck/High Resolution Echelle Spectrometer and the Anglo-Australian Telescope, along with TESS photometry from Sector 12, to perform a complete analysis of the system parameters. The combined data analysis results in extracted bulk density values of ρb = 7.8-1.1+1.2 g cm-3 and ρc = 3.50-0.36+0.41 g cm-3 for planets b and c, respectively, thus placing them on either side of the radius valley. The combination of the multitransiting planet system, the bright host star, and the diversity of planetary interiors and atmospheres means this will likely become a cornerstone system for atmospheric and orbital characterization of small worlds.Peer reviewe