A Novel Approach for Seamless Probabilistic Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Covering Multiple Time Frames

International audienceUncertainty in the upcoming production of photo-voltaic (PV) plants is a challenge for grid operations and also a source of revenue loss for PV plant operators participating in electricity markets, since they have to pay penalties for the mismatch between contracted and actual productions. Improving PV predictability is an area of intense research. In real-world applications, forecasts are often needed for different time frames (horizon, update frequency, etc.) and are derived by dedicated models for each time frame (i.e. for day ahead and for intra-day trading). This can result in both different forecasted values corresponding to the same horizon and discontinuities among time-frames. In this paper we address this problem by proposing a novel seamless probabilistic forecasting approach able to cover multiple time frames. It is based on the Analog Ensemble (AnEn) model, however it is adapted to consider the most appropriate input for each horizon from a pool of available input data. It is designed to be able to start at any time of day, for any forecast horizon, making it well-suited for applications like continuous trading. It is easy to maintain as it adapts to the latest data and does not need regular retraining. We enhance short-term predictability by considering data from satellite images and in situ measurements. The proposed model has low complexity compared to benchmark models and is trivially parallelizable. It achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art models developed specifically for the short term (i.e. up to 6 hours) and the day ahead. The evaluation was carried out on a real-world case comprising three PV plants in France, over a period of one year

Fuel Cell Airframe Integration Study for Short-Range Aircraft

The objective of this study is to define the functionality and evaluate the propulsion and power system benefits derived from a Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) based Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) for a future short range commercial aircraft, and to define the technology gaps to enable such a system. United Technologies Corporation (UTC) Integrated Total Aircraft Power System (ITAPS) methodologies were used to evaluate a baseline aircraft and several SOFC architectures. The technology benefits were captured as reductions of the mission fuel burn, life cycle cost, noise and emissions. As a result of the study, it was recognized that system integration is critical to maximize benefits from the SOFC APU for aircraft application. The mission fuel burn savings for the two SOFC architectures ranged from 4.7 percent for a system with high integration to 6.7 percent for a highly integrated system with certain technological risks. The SOFC APU itself produced zero emissions. The reduction in engine fuel burn achieved with the SOFC systems also resulted in reduced emissions from the engines for both ground operations and in flight. The noise level of the baseline APU with a silencer is 78 dBA, while the SOFC APU produced a lower noise level. It is concluded that a high specific power SOFC system is needed to achieve the benefits identified in this study. Additional areas requiring further development are the processing of the fuel to remove sulfur, either on board or on the ground, and extending the heat sink capability of the fuel to allow greater waste heat recovery, resolve the transient electrical system integration issues, and identification of the impact of the location of the SOFC and its size on the aircraft

Dairy food structures influence the rates of nutrient digestion through different in vitro gastric behaviour

The purpose of this study was to investigate in vitro the extent to which specific food structures alter gastric behaviour and could therefore impact on nutrient delivery and digestion in the small intestine. Results obtained from a specifically developed gastric digestion model, were compared to results from a previous human study on the same foods. The semi-dynamic model could simulate the main gastric dynamics including gradual acidification, lipolysis, proteolysis and emptying. Two dairy-based foods with the same caloric content but different structure were studied. The semi-solid meal comprised a mixture of cheese and yogurt and the liquid meal was an oil in water emulsion stabilised by milk proteins. Our findings showed similar gastric behaviour to that seen previously in vivo. Gastric behaviour was affected by the initial structure with creaming and sedimentation observed in the case of liquid and semi-solid samples, respectively. Lipid and protein digestion profiles showed clear differences in the amount of nutrients reaching the simulated small intestine and, consequently, the likely bioaccessibility after digestion. The semi-solid sample generated higher nutrient released into the small intestine at an early stage of digestion whereas nutrient accessibility from liquid sample was delayed due to the formation of a cream layer in the gastric phase. This shows the strong effect of the matrix on gastric behaviour, proteolysis and lipolysis, which explains the differences in physiological responses seen previously with these systems in terms of fullness and satiety

Exercise-induced ‘browning’ of adipose tissues

Global rates of obesity continue to rise and are necessarily the consequence of a long-term imbalance between energy intake and energy expenditure. This is the result of an expansion of adipose tissue due to both the hypertrophy of existing adipocytes and hyperplasia of adipocyte precursors. Exercise elicits numerous physiological benefits on adipose tissue, which are likely to contribute to the associated cardiometabolic benefits. More recently it has been demonstrated that exercise, through a range of mechanisms, induces a phenotypic switch in adipose tissue from energy storing white adipocytes to thermogenic beige adipocytes. This has generated the hypothesis that the process of adipocyte ‘browning’ may partially underlie the improved cardiometabolic health in physically active populations. Interestingly, ‘browning’ also occurs in response to various stressors and could represent an adaptive response. In the context of exercise, it is not clear whether the appearance of beige adipocytes is metabolically beneficial or whether they occur as a transient adaptive process to exercise-induced stresses. The present review discusses the various mechanisms (e.g. fatty acid oxidation during exercise, decreased thermal insulation, stressors and angiogenesis) by which the exercise-induced ‘browning’ process may occur

The proteome of cytosolic lipid droplets isolated from differentiated Caco-2/TC7 enterocytes reveals cell-specific characteristics

Background information. Intestinal absorption of alimentary lipids is a complex process ensured by enterocytes and leading to TRL [TAG (triacylglycerol)-rich lipoprotein] assembly and secretion. The accumulation of circulating intestine-derived TRL is associated with atherosclerosis, stressing the importance of the control of postprandial hypertriglyceridaemia. During the postprandial period, TAGs are also transiently stored as CLDs (cytosolic lipid droplets) in enterocytes. As a first step for determining whether CLDs could play a role in the control of enterocyte TRL secretion, we analysed the protein endowment of CLDs isolated by sucrose-gradient centrifugation from differentiated Caco-2/TC7 enterocytes, the only human model able to secrete TRL in culture and to store transiently TAGs as CLDs when supplied with lipids. Cells were analysed after a 24 h incubation with lipid micelles and thus in a state of CLD-associated TAG mobilization

Coping with Temperature at the Warm Edge – Patterns of Thermal Adaptation in the Microbial Eukaryote Paramecium caudatum

Ectothermic organisms are thought to be severely affected by global warming since their physiological performance is directly dependent on temperature. Latitudinal and temporal variations in mean temperatures force ectotherms to adapt to these complex environmental conditions. Studies investigating current patterns of thermal adaptation among populations of different latitudes allow a prediction of the potential impact of prospective increases in environmental temperatures on their fitness.In this study, temperature reaction norms were ascertained among 18 genetically defined, natural clones of the microbial eukaryote Paramecium caudatum. These different clones have been isolated from 12 freshwater habitats along a latitudinal transect in Europe and from 3 tropical habitats (Indonesia). The sensitivity to increasing temperatures was estimated through the analysis of clone specific thermal tolerances and by relating those to current and predicted temperature data of their natural habitats. All investigated European clones seem to be thermal generalists with a broad thermal tolerance and similar optimum temperatures. The weak or missing co-variation of thermal tolerance with latitude does not imply local adaptation to thermal gradients; it rather suggests adaptive phenotypic plasticity among the whole European subpopulation. The tested Indonesian clones appear to be locally adapted to the less variable, tropical temperature regime and show higher tolerance limits, but lower tolerance breadths.Due to the lack of local temperature adaptation within the European subpopulation, P. caudatum genotypes at the most southern edge of their geographic range seem to suffer from the predicted increase in magnitude and frequency of summer heat waves caused by climate change

Paracrine IL-33 Stimulation Enhances Lipopolysaccharide-Mediated Macrophage Activation

BACKGROUND: IL-33, a member of the IL-1 family of cytokines, provokes Th2-type inflammation accompanied by accumulation of eosinophils through IL-33R, which consists of ST2 and IL-1RAcP. We previously demonstrated that macrophages produce IL-33 in response to LPS. Some immune responses were shown to differ between ST2-deficient mice and soluble ST2-Fc fusion protein-treated mice. Even in anti-ST2 antibody (Ab)-treated mice, the phenotypes differed between distinct Ab clones, because the characterization of such Abs (i.e., depletion, agonistic or blocking Abs) was unclear in some cases. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To elucidate the precise role of IL-33, we newly generated neutralizing monoclonal Abs for IL-33. Exogenous IL-33 potentiated LPS-mediated cytokine production by macrophages. That LPS-mediated cytokine production by macrophages was suppressed by inhibition of endogenous IL-33 by the anti-IL-33 neutralizing mAbs. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings suggest that LPS-mediated macrophage activation is accelerated by macrophage-derived paracrine IL-33 stimulation

The mTOR Signalling Pathway in Human Cancer

The conserved serine/threonine kinase mTOR (the mammalian target of rapamycin), a downstream effector of the PI3K/AKT pathway, forms two distinct multiprotein complexes: mTORC1 and mTORC2. mTORC1 is sensitive to rapamycin, activates S6K1 and 4EBP1, which are involved in mRNA translation. It is activated by diverse stimuli, such as growth factors, nutrients, energy and stress signals, and essential signalling pathways, such as PI3K, MAPK and AMPK, in order to control cell growth, proliferation and survival. mTORC2 is considered resistant to rapamycin and is generally insensitive to nutrients and energy signals. It activates PKC-α and AKT and regulates the actin cytoskeleton. Deregulation of multiple elements of the mTOR pathway (PI3K amplification/mutation, PTEN loss of function, AKT overexpression, and S6K1, 4EBP1 and eIF4E overexpression) has been reported in many types of cancers, particularly in melanoma, where alterations in major components of the mTOR pathway were reported to have significant effects on tumour progression. Therefore, mTOR is an appealing therapeutic target and mTOR inhibitors, including the rapamycin analogues deforolimus, everolimus and temsirolimus, are submitted to clinical trials for treating multiple cancers, alone or in combination with inhibitors of other pathways. Importantly, temsirolimus and everolimus were recently approved by the FDA for the treatment of renal cell carcinoma, PNET and giant cell astrocytoma. Small molecules that inhibit mTOR kinase activity and dual PI3K-mTOR inhibitors are also being developed. In this review, we aim to survey relevant research, the molecular mechanisms of signalling, including upstream activation and downstream effectors, and the role of mTOR in cancer, mainly in melanoma