Tropical forest restoration: Fast resilience of plant biomass contrasts with slow recovery of stable soil C stocks

Due to intensifying human disturbance, over half of the world's tropical forests are reforested or afforested secondary forests or plantations. Understanding the resilience of carbon (C) stocks in these forests, and estimating the extent to which they can provide equivalent carbon (C) sequestration and stabilization to the old growth forest they replace, is critical for the global C balance. In this study, we combined estimates of biomass C stocks with a detailed assessment of soil C pools in bare land, Eucalyptus plantation, secondary forest and natural old-growth forest after over 50 years of forest restoration in a degraded tropical region of South China. We used isotope studies, density fractionation and physical fractionation to determine the age and stability of soil C pools at different soil depths. After 52 years, the secondary forests had equivalent biomass C stocks to natural forest, whereas soil C stocks were still much higher in natural forest (97.42 t/ha) than in secondary forest (58.75 t/ha) or Eucalyptus plantation (38.99 t/ha) and lowest in bare land (19.9 t/ha). Analysis of δ13C values revealed that most of the C in the soil surface horizons in the secondary forest was new C, with a limited increase of more recalcitrant old C, and limited accumulation of C in deeper soil horizons. However, occlusion of C in microaggregates in the surface soil layer was similar across forested sites, which suggests that there is great potential for additional soil C sequestration and stabilization in the secondary forest and Eucalyptus plantation. Collectively, our results demonstrate that reforestation on degraded tropical land can restore biomass C and surface soil C stocks within a few decades, but much longer recovery times are needed to restore recalcitrant C pools and C stocks at depth. Repeated harvesting and disturbance in rotation plantations had a substantial negative impact on the recovery of soil C stocks. We suggest that current calculations of soil C in secondary tropical forests (e.g. IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories) could overestimate soil C sequestration and stabilization levels in secondary forests and plantations

Response of methane emissions from wetlands to the Last Glacial Maximum and an idealized Dansgaard-Oeschger climate event: insights from two models of different complexity

The role of different sources and sinks of CH₄ in changes in atmospheric methane ([CH₄]) concentration during the last 100 000 yr is still not fully understood. In particular, the magnitude of the change in wetland CH₄ emissions at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) relative to the pre-industrial period (PI), as well as during abrupt climatic warming or Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) events of the last glacial period, is largely unconstrained. In the present study, we aim to understand the uncertainties related to the parameterization of the wetland CH₄ emission models relevant to these time periods by using two wetland models of different complexity (SDGVM and ORCHIDEE). These models have been forced by identical climate fields from low-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (FAMOUS) simulations of these time periods. Both emission models simulate a large decrease in emissions during LGM in comparison to PI consistent with ice core observations and previous modelling studies. The global reduction is much larger in ORCHIDEE than in SDGVM (respectively −67 and −46%), and whilst the differences can be partially explained by different model sensitivities to temperature, the major reason for spatial differences between the models is the inclusion of freezing of soil water in ORCHIDEE and the resultant impact on methanogenesis substrate availability in boreal regions. Besides, a sensitivity test performed with ORCHIDEE in which the methanogenesis substrate sensitivity to the precipitations is modified to be more realistic gives a LGM reduction of −36%. The range of the global LGM decrease is still prone to uncertainty, and here we underline its sensitivity to different process parameterizations. Over the course of an idealized D–O warming, the magnitude of the change in wetland CH₄ emissions simulated by the two models at global scale is very similar at around 15 Tg yr⁻¹, but this is only around 25% of the ice-core measured changes in [CH₄]. The two models do show regional differences in emission sensitivity to climate with much larger magnitudes of northern and southern tropical anomalies in ORCHIDEE. However, the simulated northern and southern tropical anomalies partially compensate each other in both models limiting the net flux change. Future work may need to consider the inclusion of more detailed wetland processes (e.g. linked to permafrost or tropical floodplains), other non-wetland CH₄ sources or different patterns of D–O climate change in order to be able to reconcile emission estimates with the ice-core data for rapid CH₄ events

Anthropogenic methane plume detection from point sources in the Paris megacity area and characterization of their δ¹³C signature

International audienceMitigating anthropogenic methane emissions is one of the available tools for reaching the near term objectives of the Paris Agreement. Characterizing the isotopic signature of the methane plumes emitted by these sources is needed to improve the quantification of methane sources at the regional scale. Urbanized and industrialized regions such as the Paris megacity are key places to better characterize anthropogenic methane sources. In this study, we present the results of the first mobile surveys in the Paris region, assessing methane point sources from 10 landfills (which in the regional inventory are the main emission sector of methane in the region), 5 gas storage sites (supplying Paris) and 1 waste water treatment (WWT) facility (Europe’s largest, second worldwide). Local atmospheric methane concentration (or mixing ratio) enhancements in the source plumes were quantified and their d13C in CH4 (further noted d13CH4) signature characterized. Among the 10 landfills sampled, at 6 of them we detected atmospheric methane local enhancements ranging from 0.8 to 8.5 parts per million (ppm) with d13CH4 signatures between -63.7 ± 0.3 permils (‰) to - 58.2 ± 0.3 ‰. Among the 5 gas storage sites surveyed, we could observe that 3 of them were leaking methane with local methane concentration enhancements ranging from 0.8 to 8.1 ppm and d13CH4 signatures spanning from -43.4 ± 0.5 ‰ to -33.8 ± 0.4 ‰. Dutch gas with a d13CH4 signature of -33.8 ± 0.4 ‰ (typical of thermogenic gas) was also likely identified. The WWT site emitted local methane enhancements up to 4.0 ppm. For this site, two d13CH4 signatures were determined as -51.9 ± 0.2 ‰ and -55.3 ± 0.1 ‰, typical of a biogenic origin. About forty methane plumes were also detected in the Paris city, leading to local concentration enhancements whose origin was in two cases interpreted as natural gas leaks thanks to their isotopic composition. However, such enhancements were much less common than in cities of North America. More isotopic surveys are needed to discriminate whether such urban methane enhancements are outcoming from gas line leaks and sewer network emanations. Furthermore, our results lead us to the conclusion that the regional emissions inventory could underestimate methane emissions from the WWT sector. Further campaigns are needed to assess the variability and seasonality of the sources and of their isotopic signature, and to estimate their emissions using methods independent of the inventory

Characterising half a degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets

The Paris Agreement long term global temperature goal refers to two global warming levels: well below 2°C and 1.5°C above preindustrial. Regional climate signals at specific global warming levels, and especially the differences between 1.5°C and 2°C, are not well constrained, however. In particular, methodological challenges related to the assessment of such differences have received limited attention. This paper reviews alternative approaches for identifying regional climate signals associated with global temperature limits, and evaluates the extent to which they constitute a sound basis for impacts analysis. Four methods are outlined, including comparing data from different greenhouse gas scenarios, sub-selecting climate models based on global temperature response, pattern scaling, and extracting anomalies at the time of each global temperature increment. These methods have rarely been applied to compare 2°C with 1.5°C, but some demonstrate potential avenues for useful research. Nevertheless, there are methodological challenges associated with the use of existing climate model experiments, which are generally designed to model responses to different levels of greenhouse gas forcing, rather than to model climate responses to a specific level of forcing that targets a given level of global temperature change. Novel approaches may be required to address policy questions, in particular: to differentiate between half degree warming increments while accounting for different sources of uncertainty; to examine mechanisms of regional climate change including the potential for nonlinear responses; and to explore the relevance of time-lagged processes in the climate system and declining emissions, and the resulting sensitivity to alternative mitigation pathways

Biophysics and vegetation cover change: A process-based evaluation framework for confronting land surface models with satellite observations

This is the final version. Available on open access from Copernicus Publications via the DOI in this recordLand use and land cover change (LULCC) alter the biophysical properties of the Earth's surface. The associated changes in vegetation cover can perturb the local surface energy balance, which in turn can affect the local climate. The sign and magnitude of this change in climate depends on the specific vegetation transition, its timing and its location, as well as on the background climate. Land surface models (LSMs) can be used to simulate such land-climate interactions and study their impact in past and future climates, but their capacity to model biophysical effects accurately across the globe remain unclear due to the complexity of the phenomena. Here we present a framework to evaluate the performance of such models with respect to a dedicated dataset derived from satellite remote sensing observations. Idealized simulations from four LSMs (JULES, ORCHIDEE, JSBACH and CLM) are combined with satellite observations to analyse the changes in radiative and turbulent fluxes caused by 15 specific vegetation cover transitions across geographic, seasonal and climatic gradients. The seasonal variation in net radiation associated with land cover change is the process that models capture best, whereas LSMs perform poorly when simulating spatial and climatic gradients of variation in latent, sensible and ground heat fluxes induced by land cover transitions. We expect that this analysis will help identify model limitations and prioritize efforts in model development as well as inform where consensus between model and observations is already met, ultimately helping to improve the robustness and consistency of model simulations to better inform land-based mitigation and adaptation policies.The study was funded by the FP7 LUC4C project (grant no. 603542

An investigation into linearity with cumulative emissions of the climate and carbon cycle response in HadCM3LC

We investigate the extent to which global mean temperature, precipitation, and the carbon cycle are constrained by cumulative carbon emissions throughout four experiments with a fully coupled climate-carbon cycle model. The two paired experiments adopt contrasting, idealised approaches to climate change mitigation at different action points this century, with total emissions exceeding two trillion tonnes of carbon in the later pair. Their initially diverging cumulative emissions trajectories cross after several decades, before diverging again. We find that their global mean temperatures are, to first order, linear with cumulative emissions, though regional differences in temperature of up to 1.5K exist when cumulative emissions of each pair coincide. Interestingly, although the oceanic precipitation response scales with cumulative emissions, the global precipitation response does not, due to a decrease in precipitation over land above cumulative emissions of around one trillion tonnes of carbon (TtC). Most carbon fluxes and stores are less well constrained by cumulative emissions as they reach two trillion tonnes. The opposing mitigation approaches have different consequences for the Amazon rainforest, which affects the linearity with which the carbon cycle responds to cumulative emissions. Averaged over the two fixed-emissions experiments, the transient response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) is 1.95 K TtC-1, at the upper end of the IPCC’s range of 0.8-2.5 K TtC-1

An atmospheric perspective on North American carbon dioxide exchange: CarbonTracker

We present an estimate of net CO2 exchange between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere across North America for every week in the period 2000 through 2005. This estimate is derived from a set of 28,000 CO2 mole fraction observations in the global atmosphere that are fed into a state-of-the-art data assimilation system for CO2 called CarbonTracker. By design, the surface fluxes produced in CarbonTracker are consistent with the recent history of CO2 in the atmosphere and provide constraints on the net carbon flux independent from national inventories derived from accounting efforts. We find the North American terrestrial biosphere to have absorbed –0.65 PgC/yr (1 petagram = 10^15 g; negative signs are used for carbon sinks) averaged over the period studied, partly offsetting the estimated 1.85 PgC/yr release by fossil fuel burning and cement manufacturing. Uncertainty on this estimate is derived from a set of sensitivity experiments and places the sink within a range of –0.4 to –1.0 PgC/yr. The estimated sink is located mainly in the deciduous forests along the East Coast (32%) and the boreal coniferous forests (22%). Terrestrial uptake fell to –0.32 PgC/yr during the large-scale drought of 2002, suggesting sensitivity of the contemporary carbon sinks to climate extremes. CarbonTracker results are in excellent agreement with a wide collection of carbon inventories that form the basis of the first North American State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR), to be released in 2007. All CarbonTracker results are freely available at http://carbontracker.noaa.gov

An examination of the precipitation delivery mechanisms for Dolleman Island, eastern Antarctic Peninsula

Copyright @ 2004 Wiley-BlackwellThe variability of size and source of significant precipitation events were studied at an Antarctic ice core drilling site: Dolleman Island (DI), located on the eastern coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. Significant precipitation events that occur at DI were temporally located in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) reanalysis data set, ERA-40. The annual and summer precipitation totals from ERA-40 at DI both show significant increases over the reanalysis period. Three-dimensional backwards air parcel trajectories were then run for 5 d using the ECMWF ERA-15 wind fields. Cluster analyses were performed on two sets of these backwards trajectories: all days in the range 1979–1992 (the climatological time-scale) and a subset of days when a significant precipitation event occurred. The principal air mass sources and delivery mechanisms were found to be the Weddell Sea via lee cyclogenesis, the South Atlantic when there was a weak circumpolar trough (CPT) and the South Pacific when the CPT was deep. The occurrence of precipitation bearing air masses arriving via a strong CPT was found to have a significant correlation with the southern annular mode (SAM); however, the arrival of air masses from the same region over the climatological time-scale showed no such correlation. Despite the dominance in both groups of back trajectories of the westerly circulation around Antarctica, some other key patterns were identified. Most notably there was a higher frequency of lee cyclogenesis events in the significant precipitation trajectories compared to the climatological time-scale. There was also a tendency for precipitation trajectories to come from more northerly latitudes, mostly from 50–70°S. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was found to have a strong influence on the mechanism by which the precipitation was delivered; the frequency of occurrence of precipitation from the east (west) of DI increased during El Niño (La Niña) events

Current systematic carbon-cycle observations and the need for implementing a policy-relevant carbon observing system

A globally integrated carbon observation and analysis system is needed to improve the fundamental understanding of the global carbon cycle, to improve our ability to project future changes, and to verify the effectiveness of policies aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon sequestration. Building an integrated carbon observation system requires transformational advances from the existing sparse, exploratory framework towards a dense, robust, and sustained system in all components: anthropogenic emissions, the atmosphere, the ocean, and the terrestrial biosphere. The paper is addressed to scientists, policymakers, and funding agencies who need to have a global picture of the current state of the (diverse) carbon observations. We identify the current state of carbon observations, and the needs and notional requirements for a global integrated carbon observation system that can be built in the next decade. A key conclusion is the substantial expansion of the ground-based observation networks required to reach the high spatial resolution for CO2 and CH4 fluxes, and for carbon stocks for addressing policy-relevant objectives, and attributing flux changes to underlying processes in each region. In order to establish flux and stock diagnostics over areas such as the southern oceans, tropical forests, and the Arctic, in situ observations will have to be complemented with remote-sensing measurements. Remote sensing offers the advantage of dense spatial coverage and frequent revisit. A key challenge is to bring remote-sensing measurements to a level of long-term consistency and accuracy so that they can be efficiently combined in models to reduce uncertainties, in synergy with ground-based data. Bringing tight observational constraints on fossil fuel and land use change emissions will be the biggest challenge for deployment of a policy-relevant integrated carbon observation system. This will require in situ and remotely sensed data at much higher resolution and density than currently achieved for natural fluxes, although over a small land area (cities, industrial sites, power plants), as well as the inclusion of fossil fuel CO2 proxy measurements such as radiocarbon in CO2 and carbon-fuel combustion tracers. Additionally, a policy-relevant carbon monitoring system should also provide mechanisms for reconciling regional top-down (atmosphere-based) and bottom-up (surface-based) flux estimates across the range of spatial and temporal scales relevant to mitigation policies. In addition, uncertainties for each observation data-stream should be assessed. The success of the system will rely on long-term commitments to monitoring, on improved international collaboration to fill gaps in the current observations, on sustained efforts to improve access to the different data streams and make databases interoperable, and on the calibration of each component of the system to agreed-upon international scales