Lessons learned and lessons missed: impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries and US states prior to mass vaccination [version 2; peer review: 2 approved]

Background: Industrialised countries had varied responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, which may lead to different death tolls from COVID-19 and other diseases. Methods: We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian probabilistic models to vital statistics data to estimate the number of weekly deaths if the pandemic had not occurred for 40 industrialised countries and US states from mid-February 2020 through mid-February 2021. We subtracted these estimates from the actual number of deaths to calculate the impacts of the pandemic on all-cause mortality. Results: Over this year, there were 1,410,300 (95% credible interval 1,267,600-1,579,200) excess deaths in these countries, equivalent to a 15% (14-17) increase, and 141 (127-158) additional deaths per 100,000 people. In Iceland, Australia and New Zealand, mortality was lower than would be expected in the absence of the pandemic, while South Korea and Norway experienced no detectable change. The USA, Czechia, Slovakia and Poland experienced >20% higher mortality. Within the USA, Hawaii experienced no detectable change in mortality and Maine a 5% increase, contrasting with New Jersey, Arizona, Mississippi, Texas, California, Louisiana and New York which experienced >25% higher mortality. Mid-February to the end of May 2020 accounted for over half of excess deaths in Scotland, Spain, England and Wales, Canada, Sweden, Belgium, the Netherlands and Cyprus, whereas mid-September 2020 to mid-February 2021 accounted for >90% of excess deaths in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. In USA, excess deaths in the northeast were driven mainly by the first wave, in southern and southwestern states by the summer wave, and in the northern plains by the post-September period. Conclusions: Prior to widespread vaccine-acquired immunity, minimising the overall death toll of the pandemic requires policies and non-pharmaceutical interventions that delay and reduce infections, effective treatments for infected patients, and mechanisms to continue routine health care

Multi-component based cross correlation beat detection in electrocardiogram analysis

BACKGROUND: The first stage in computerised processing of the electrocardiogram is beat detection. This involves identifying all cardiac cycles and locating the position of the beginning and end of each of the identifiable waveform components. The accuracy at which beat detection is performed has significant impact on the overall classification performance, hence efforts are still being made to improve this process. METHODS: A new beat detection approach is proposed based on the fundamentals of cross correlation and compared with two benchmarking approaches of non-syntactic and cross correlation beat detection. The new approach can be considered to be a multi-component based variant of traditional cross correlation where each of the individual inter-wave components are sought in isolation as opposed to being sought in one complete process. Each of three techniques were compared based on their performance in detecting the P wave, QRS complex and T wave in addition to onset and offset markers for 3000 cardiac cycles. RESULTS: Results indicated that the approach of multi-component based cross correlation exceeded the performance of the two benchmarking techniques by firstly correctly detecting more cardiac cycles and secondly provided the most accurate marker insertion in 7 out of the 8 categories tested. CONCLUSION: The main benefit of the multi-component based cross correlation algorithm is seen to be firstly its ability to successfully detect cardiac cycles and secondly the accurate insertion of the beat markers based on pre-defined values as opposed to performing individual gradient searches for wave onsets and offsets following fiducial point location

Toxic metal enrichment and boating intensity: sediment records of antifoulant copper in shallow lakes of eastern England

Tributyltin (TBT), an aqueous biocide derived from antifouling paint pollution, is known to have impacted coastal marine ecosystems, and has been reported in the sediment of the Norfolk and Suffolk Broads, a network of rivers and shallow lakes in eastern England. In the marine environment, the 1987 TBT ban has resulted in expanded use of alternative biocides, raising the question of whether these products too have impacted the Broads ecosystem and freshwaters in general. Here we examine the lake sediment record in the Norfolk and Suffolk Broads for contamination by copper (Cu) (as an active biocide agent) and zinc (Zn) (as a component of booster biocides), to assess their occurrence and potential for causing environmental harm in freshwater ecosystems. We find that, after the introduction of leisure boating, there is a statistically significant difference in Cu enrichment between heavily and lightly boated sites, while no such difference exists prior to this time. At the heavily boated sites the onset of Cu enrichment coincides with a period of rapid increase in leisure boating. Such enrichment is maintained to the present day, with some evidence of continued increase. We conclude that Cu-based antifouling has measurably contaminated lakes exposed to boating, at concentrations high enough to cause ecological harm. Similar findings can be expected at other boated freshwater ecosystems elsewhere in the world

The H-band Emitting Region of the Luminous Blue Variable P Cygni: Spectrophotometry and Interferometry of the Wind

This is the final version of the article. Available from American Astronomical Society / IOP Publishing via the DOI in this record.We present the first high angular resolution observations in the near-infrared H band (1.6 μm) of the luminous blue variable star P Cygni. We obtained six-telescope interferometric observations with the CHARA Array and the MIRC beam combiner. These show that the spatial flux distribution is larger than expected for the stellar photosphere. A two-component model for the star (uniform disk) plus a halo (two-dimensional Gaussian) yields an excellent fit of the observations, and we suggest that the halo corresponds to flux emitted from the base of the stellar wind. This wind component contributes about 45% of the H-band flux and has an angular FWHM = 0.96 mas, compared to the predicted stellar diameter of 0.41 mas. We show several images reconstructed from the interferometric visibilities and closure phases, and they indicate a generally spherical geometry for the wind. We also obtained near-infrared spectrophotometry of P Cygni from which we derive the flux excess compared to a purely photospheric spectral energy distribution. The H-band flux excess matches that from the wind flux fraction derived from the two-component fits to the interferometry. We find evidence of significant near-infrared flux variability over the period from 2006 to 2010 that appears similar to the variations in the Hα emission flux from the wind.We acknowledge with thanks the variable star observations from the AAVSO International Database contributed by observers worldwide and used in this research. Support for Ritter Astrophysical Research Center during the time of the observations was provided by the National Science Foundation Program for Research and Education with Small Telescopes (NSF-PREST) under grant AST-0440784 (N.D.M.). This work was also supported by the National Science Foundation under grants AST-0606861 and AST-1009080 (D.R.G.). N.D.R. gratefully acknowledges his current CRAQ postdoctoral fellowship. We are grateful for the insightful comments of A. F. J. Moffat that improved portions of the paper, discussions with Paco Najarro and Luc Dessart about spectroscopic modeling of P Cygni, and support of the MIRC 6 telescope beam combiner by Ettore Pedretti. Institutional support has been provided by the GSU College of Arts and Sciences and by the Research Program Enhancement fund of the Board of Regents of the University System of Georgia, administered through the GSU Office of the Vice President for Research. Operational funding for the CHARA Array is provided by the GSU College of Arts and Sciences, by the National Science Foundation through grants AST-0606958 and AST-0908253, by the W. M. Keck Foundation, and by the NASA Exoplanet Science Institute. We thank the Mount Wilson Institute for providing infrastructure support at Mount Wilson Observatory. The CHARA Array, operated by Georgia State University, was built with funding provided by the National Science Foundation, Georgia State University, the W. M. Keck Foundation, and the David and Lucile Packard Foundation. This research was conducted in part using the Mimir instrument, jointly developed at Boston University and Lowell Observatory and supported by NASA, NSF, and the W. M. Keck Foundation. J.D.M. acknowledges University of Michigan and NSF AST-0707927 for support of MIRC construction and observations. D.P.C. acknowledges support under NSF AST-0907790 to Boston University. We gratefully acknowledge all of this support. This research has made use of the SIMBAD database operated at CDS, Strasbourg, France

Primary liposarcoma of the ascending colon: a rare case of mixed type presenting as hemoperitoneum combined with other type of retroperitoneal liposarcoma

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Liposarcoma occurs most commonly in the extremities and retroperitoneum, however, it has been rarely observed in the colon.</p> <p>Case Presentation</p> <p>A case is reported a 41-year-old man with liposarcoma of ascending colon which was presented as hemoperitoneum and combined with a different histological type of retroperitoneal liposarcoma. He visited hospital with right lower abdominal pain and palpable mass. Laboratory data including tumor markers were within normal limits, and computed tomography revealed a 15 × 10 cm sized enhancing soft mass. Right hemicolectomy was performed, and after that, a further large retroperitoneal mass was revealed and this was also radically excised. Mixed-type colon liposarcoma and well differentiated type of retroperitoneal liposarcoma were diagnosed in pathologic report. The patient has remained free of disease for 24 months.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>No standardized guidelines have been established for its treatment because too small a number of cases have been reported, but surgical resection was considered the treatment of choice.</p

RT-GENE: Real-time eye gaze estimation in natural environments

In this work, we consider the problem of robust gaze estimation in natural environments. Large camera-to-subject distances and high variations in head pose and eye gaze angles are common in such environments. This leads to two main shortfalls in state-of-the-art methods for gaze estimation: hindered ground truth gaze annotation and diminished gaze estimation accuracy as image resolution decreases with distance. We first record a novel dataset of varied gaze and head pose images in a natural environment, addressing the issue of ground truth annotation by measuring head pose using a motion capture system and eye gaze using mobile eyetracking glasses. We apply semantic image inpainting to the area covered by the glasses to bridge the gap between training and testing images by removing the obtrusiveness of the glasses. We also present a new real-time algorithm involving appearance-based deep convolutional neural networks with increased capacity to cope with the diverse images in the new dataset. Experiments with this network architecture are conducted on a number of diverse eye-gaze datasets including our own, and in cross dataset evaluations. We demonstrate state-of-the-art performance in terms of estimation accuracy in all experiments, and the architecture performs well even on lower resolution images

Caveats of chronic exogenous corticosterone treatments in adolescent rats and effects on anxiety-like and depressive behavior and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis function

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Administration of exogenous corticosterone is an effective preclinical model of depression, but its use has involved primarily adult rodents. Using two different procedures of administration drawn from the literature, we explored the possibility of exogenous corticosterone models in adolescence, a time of heightened risk for mood disorders in humans.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In experiment 1, rats were injected with 40 mg/kg corticosterone or vehicle from postnatal days 30 to 45 and compared with no injection controls on behavior in the elevated plus maze (EPM) and the forced swim test (FST). Experiment 2 consisted of three treatments administered to rats from postnatal days 30 to 45 or as adults (days 70 to 85): either corticosterone (400 μg/ml) administered in the drinking water along with 2.5% ethanol, 2.5% ethanol or water only. In addition to testing on EPM, blood samples after the FST were obtained to measure plasma corticosterone. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and alpha level of <it>P </it>< 0.05 were used to determine statistical significance.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In experiment 1, corticosterone treatment of adolescent rats increased anxiety in the EPM and decreased immobility in the FST compared to no injection control rats. However, vehicle injected rats were similar to corticosterone injected rats, suggesting that adolescent rats may be highly vulnerable to stress of injection. In experiment 2, the intake of treated water, and thus doses delivered, differed for adolescents and adults, but there were no effects of treatment on behavior in the EPM or FST. Rats that had ingested corticosterone had reduced corticosterone release after the FST. Ethanol vehicle also affected corticosterone release compared to those ingesting water only, but differently for adolescents than for adults.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The results indicate that several challenges must be overcome before the exogenous corticosterone model can be used effectively in adolescents.</p

Inhibition of SLPI ameliorates disease activity in experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The secretory leukocyte protease inhibitor (SLPI) exerts wide ranging effects on inflammatory pathways and is upregulated in EAE but the biological role of SLPI in EAE, an animal model of multiple sclerosis is unknown</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To investigate the pathophysiological effects of SLPI within EAE, we induced SLPI-neutralizing antibodies in mice and rats to determine the clinical severity of the disease. In addition we studied the effects of SLPI on the anti-inflammatory cytokine TGF-β.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The induction of SLPI neutralizing antibodies resulted in a milder disease course in mouse and rat EAE. SLPI neutralization was associated with increased serum levels of TGF-β and increased numbers of FoxP3+ CD4+ T cells in lymph nodes. <it>In vitro</it>, the addition of SLPI significantly decreased the number of functional FoxP3+ CD25^hiCD4+ regulatory T cells in cultures of naive human CD4+ T cells. Adding recombinant TGF-β to SLPI-treated human T cell cultures neutralized SLPI's inhibitory effect on regulatory T cell differentiation.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In EAE, SLPI exerts potent pro-inflammatory actions by modulation of T-cell activity and its neutralization may be beneficial for the disease.</p

Two-pion Bose-Einstein correlations in central Pb-Pb collisions at sNN\sqrt{s_{\rm NN}} = 2.76 TeV

The first measurement of two-pion Bose-Einstein correlations in central Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\rm NN}} = 2.76$ TeV at the Large Hadron Collider is presented. We observe a growing trend with energy now not only for the longitudinal and the outward but also for the sideward pion source radius. The pion homogeneity volume and the decoupling time are significantly larger than those measured at RHIC.Comment: 17 pages, 5 captioned figures, 1 table, authors from page 12, published version, figures at http://aliceinfo.cern.ch/ArtSubmission/node/388