The Models of Authority Project: Extending the DigiPal Framework for Script and Decoration

The DigiPal project for palaeography has featured in previous DH conferences. It includes a generalised framework for the description and analysis of handwriting, initially applied to Old English of the eleventh century but subsequently extended to Latin, Hebrew, and decoration; it incorporates a novel model for describing handwriting; and a recent addition allows the embedding of linked palaeographical images into prose description. The purpose of this poster is to present new developments which form part of two further major grants, one of which is the Models of Authority project. Specifically, the focus here is on the incorporation of textual content into the model for handwriting

Cost-effectiveness of a patient-centred approach to managing multimorbidity in primary care:a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial

Objective Patients with multiple chronic health conditions are often managed in a disjointed fashion in primary care, with annual review clinic appointments offered separately for each condition. This study aimed to determine the cost-effectiveness of the 3D intervention, which was developed to improve the system of care. Design Economic evaluation conducted alongside a pragmatic cluster-randomised trial. Setting General practices in three centres in England and Scotland. Participants 797 adults with three or more chronic conditions were randomised to the 3D intervention, while 749 participants were randomised to receive usual care. Intervention The 3D approach: comprehensive 6-monthly general practitioner consultations, supported by medication reviews and nurse appointments. Primary and secondary outcome measures The primary economic evaluation assessed the cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained from the perspective of the National Health Service (NHS) and personal social services (PSS). Costs were related to changes in a range of secondary outcomes (QALYs accrued by both participants and carers, and deaths) in a cost-consequences analysis from the perspectives of the NHS/PSS, patients/carers and productivity losses. Results Very small increases were found in both QALYs (adjusted mean difference 0.007 (-0.009 to 0.023)) and costs (adjusted mean difference 126 pound (-739 pound to 991)) pound in the intervention arm compared with usual care after 15 months. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was 18 pound 499, with a 50.8% chance of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of 20 pound 000 per QALY (55.8% at 30 pound 000 per QALY). Conclusions The small differences in costs and outcomes were consistent with chance, and the uncertainty was substantial; therefore, the evidence for the cost-effectiveness of the 3D approach from the NHS/PSS perspective should be considered equivocal

Learning histories, participatory methods and creative engagement for climate resilience

The potential of place-based, historically-informed approaches to drive climate action has not yet been adequately interrogated. Recent scholarly work has focussed on climate communication and the role of arts and humanities-led storytelling in engaging people in climate narratives. Far less has been said about mobilising arts and creativity to build anticipatory climate action. perNor have archival material and pre-twentieth century histories of living with water and flood been widely utilised in this endeavour. This paper reflects on our experiences delivering the UKRI-funded Risky Cities programme and specifically, of developing and utilising a learning histories approach that folds together past, present and future in productive ways so as to learn from the past and the present and rethink the future. Risky Cities uses this approach to develop engagement tools at different scales, evaluating their impact throughout using participant interviews, reflective focus groups, and surveys. Analysing this data, we consistently find that using learning histories as the foundation of arts-led and creative community engagement makes big narratives about global climate change locally meaningful. Crucially, this drives cognitive shifts, behavioural change and anticipatory action for both participants and audiences. Thus, our learning histories approach is an important participatory tool for building climate action, empowerment and resilience

Management of multimorbidity using a patient-centred care model:a pragmatic cluster-randomised trial of the 3D approach

Background: The management of people with multiple chronic conditions challenges health-care systems designed around single conditions. There is international consensus that care for multimorbidity should be patient-centred, focus on quality of life, and promote self-management towards agreed goals. However, there is little evidence about the effectiveness of this approach. Our hypothesis was that the patient-centred, so-called 3D approach (based on dimensions of health, depression, and drugs) for patients with multimorbidity would improve their health-related quality of life, which is the ultimate aim of the 3D intervention. Methods: We did this pragmatic cluster-randomised trial in general practices in England and Scotland. Practices were randomly allocated to continue usual care (17 practices) or to provide 6-monthly comprehensive 3D reviews, incorporating patient-centred strategies that reflected international consensus on best care (16 practices). Randomisation was computer-generated, stratified by area, and minimised by practice deprivation and list size. Adults with three or more chronic conditions were recruited. The primary outcome was quality of life (assessed with EQ-5D-5L) after 15 months' follow-up. Participants were not masked to group assignment, but analysis of outcomes was blinded. We analysed the primary outcome in the intention-to-treat population, with missing data being multiply imputed. This trial is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN06180958. Findings: Between May 20, 2015, and Dec 31, 2015, we recruited 1546 patients from 33 practices and randomly assigned them to receive the intervention (n=797) or usual care (n=749). In our intention-to-treat analysis, there was no difference between trial groups in the primary outcome of quality of life (adjusted difference in mean EQ-5D-5L 0·00, 95% CI −0·02 to 0·02; p=0·93). 78 patients died, and the deaths were not considered as related to the intervention. Interpretation: To our knowledge, this trial is the largest investigation of the international consensus about optimal management of multimorbidity. The 3D intervention did not improve patients' quality of life. Funding: National Institute for Health Research

Assessing, quantifying and valuing the ecosystem services of coastal lagoons

The natural conservation of coastal lagoons is important not only for their ecological importance, but also because of the valuable ecosystem services they provide for human welfare and wellbeing. Coastal lagoons are shallow semi-enclosed systems that support important habitats such as wetlands, mangroves, salt-marshes and seagrass meadows, as well as a rich biodiversity. Coastal lagoons are also complex social-ecological systems with ecosystem services that provide livelihoods, wellbeing and welfare to humans. This study assessed, quantified and valued the ecosystem services of 32 coastal lagoons. The main findings of the study are: (i) the definitions of ecosystem services are still not generally accepted; (ii) the quantification of ecosystem services is made in many different ways, using different units; (iii) the evaluation in monetary terms of some ecosystem service is problematic, often relying on non-monetary evaluation methods; (iv) when ecosystem services are valued in monetary terms, this may represent very different human benefits; and, (v) different aspects of climate change, including increasing temperature, sea-level rise and changes in rainfall patterns threaten the valuable ecosystem services of coastal lagoons.DEVOTES project, from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration [308392]; networks and communities of Eurolag; Future Earth Coasts; SCOR; Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia (FCT) Investigador Programme [IF/00331/2013]; Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia [UID/MAR/04292/2013]; CESAM by FCT/MEC national funds (PIDDAC) [UID/AMB/50017/2013 - POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007638]; FEDER; European Commission, under the 7th Framework Programme through the collaborative research project LAGOONS [283157]; FCT [SFRH/BPD/107823/2015, SFRH/BPD/91494/2012

Biochar has no effect on soil respiration across Chinese agricultural soils

This work was supported by NSFC (41371298 and 41371300), Ministry of Science and Technology (2013GB23600666 and 2013BAD11B00), and Ministry of Education of China (20120097130003). The international cooperation was funded under a “111” project by the State Agency of Foreign Expert Affairs of China and jointly supported under a grant for Priority Disciplines in Higher Education by the Department of Education, Jiangsu Province, China; The work was also a contribution to the cooperation project of “Estimates of Future Agricultural GHG Emissions and Mitigation in China” under the UK-China Sustainable Agriculture Innovation Network (SAIN). Pete Smith contributed to this work under a UK BBSRC China Partnership Award. The authors are grateful to Yuming Liu, Bin Zhang, Xiao Li, Gang Wu, Jinjin Qu and Yinxin Ye and Dongqi Liu for their contribution to field experiments, and to Rongjun Bian and Qaiser Hussain for their participation in discussions of the data analysis and interpretation, and to Xinyan Yu and Jiafang Wang for their assistance in lab works.Peer reviewedPostprin

PrEdiction of Risk and Communication of outcomE followIng major lower limb amputation – a collaboratiVE study (PERCEIVE): Protocol for the PERCEIVE qualitative study

INTRODUCTION: Deciding whether to proceed with a major lower limb amputation is life-changing and complex, and it is crucial that the right decision is made at the right time. However, medical specialists are known to poorly predict risk when assessing patients for major surgery, and there is little guidance and research regarding decisions about amputation. The process of shared decision-making between doctors and patients during surgical consultations is also little understood. Therefore, the aim of this study is to analyse in depth the communication, consent, risk prediction and decision-making process in relation to major lower limb amputation. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Consultations between patients and surgeons at which major lower limb amputation is discussed will be audio-recorded for 10–15 patients. Semi-structured follow-up interviews with patients (and relatives/carers) will then be conducted at two time points: as soon as possible/appropriate after a decision has been reached regarding surgery, and approximately 6 months later. Semi-structured interviews will also be conducted with 10–15 healthcare professionals working in the UK National Health Service (NHS) involved in amputation decision-making. This will include surgeons, anaesthetists and specialist physiotherapists at 2–4 NHS Health Boards/Trusts in Wales and England. Discourse analysis will be used to analyse the recorded consultations; interviews will be analysed thematically. Finally, workshops will be held with patients and healthcare professionals to help synthesise and interpret findings. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has been approved by Wales REC 7 (20/WA/0351). Study findings will be published in international peer-reviewed journal(s) and presented at national and international scientific meetings. Findings will also be disseminated to a wide NHS and lay audience via presentations at meetings and written summaries for key stakeholder groups

The PERCEIVE quantitative study: PrEdiction of Risk and Communication of outcome following major lower limb amputation: protocol for a collaboratiVE study

BACKGROUND: Accurate prediction of outcomes following surgery with high morbidity and mortality rates is essential for informed shared decision-making between patients and clinicians. It is unknown how accurately healthcare professionals predict outcomes following major lower-limb amputation (MLLA). Several MLLA outcome-prediction tools have been developed. These could be valuable in clinical practice, but most require validation in independent cohorts before routine clinical use can be recommended. The primary aim of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of healthcare professionals’ predictions of outcomes in adult patients undergoing MLLA for complications of chronic limb-threatening ischaemia (CLTI) or diabetes. Secondary aims include the validation of existing outcome-prediction tools. METHOD: This study is an international, multicentre prospective observational study including adult patients undergoing a primary MLLA for CLTI or diabetes. Healthcare professionals’ accuracy in predicting outcomes at 30-days (death, morbidity and MLLA revision) and 1-year (death, MLLA revision and ambulation) will be evaluated. Sixteen existing outcome-prediction tools specific to MLLA will be examined for validity. Data collection began on 1 October 2020; the end of follow-up will be 1 May 2022. The C-statistic, Hosmer–Lemeshow test, reclassification tables and Brier score will be used to evaluate the predictive performance of healthcare professionals and prediction tools, respectively. STUDY REGISTRATION AND DISSEMINATION: This study will be registered locally at each centre in accordance with local policies before commencing data collection, overseen by local clinician leads. Results will be disseminated to all centres, and any subsequent presentation(s) and/or publication(s) will follow a collaborative co-authorship model

Insensitivity of soil biological communities to phosphorus fertilization in intensively managed grassland systems

Efficient soil P cycling is essential for promoting optimal and sustainable grassland growth. The soil biological community is regarded as an important source of available P to the plant community. However, the effects of P fertilization on the soil biota are unclear. This study aimed to investigate the effects of P fertilization on plant and soil biological communities in two intensively managed grassland sites that had been receiving mineral-based P fertilization over a 14-year period. Both pastures had been frequently cut and harvested for plant material and had received only inorganic fertilizers from the establishment of the trial. Both sites were sampled four times from October 2009 to April 2011 and plant and a range of soil biological parameters were determined at each sampling period. The main findings of this study showed that soil chemical measures, such as labile inorganic P and total P concentrations, and plant yield and P contents responded as expected to P fertilization. However, all soil biological parameters either showed no response or inconsistent responses to P fertilization over the experimental period. This study indicates that intensive management regimes, for example intensive plant harvesting and fertilizer regimes, appear to override the relationship between plant and soil biological communities with respect to their response to P fertilization, and thus their productivity is apparently not predicated upon biotic activity.</p

Response to issues on GM agriculture in Africa: Are transgenic crops safe?

The controversies surrounding transgenic crops, often called Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs), call for a need to raise the level of public awareness of Genetic Modification (GM) technology in Africa. This should be accomplished by educating the public about the potential benefits and risks that may be associated with this new technology. In the last 15 years, GM crop producing countries have benefited from adoption of this new technology in the form of improved crop productivity, food security, and quality of life. The increased income to resource-poor farmers is a key benefit at the individual level especially as most countries using this technology are in the developing world, including three African countries (South Africa, Burkina Faso and Egypt). Despite clear benefits to countries and farmers who grow GMOs, many people are concerned about suspected potential risks associated with GMOs. This sparks debate as to whether GM technology should be adopted or not. Given the concerns regarding the safety of GMO products, thorough scientific investigation of safe application of GMOs is required. The objective of this paper is to respond to the issues of GM agriculture in Africa and some of the issues surrounding the adoption of GM crops between developed and developing countries. In this article, I analyse relevant papers relating to the adoption of GM technology particularly in developing countries including the few African countries that have adopted GM crops. The issues discussed span a wide range including: safety; potential benefits and risks; disputes between the United States of America (USA) and the European Union (EU) over adoption of GM crops with a focus on Africa continent. This article is concluded by summarising the issues raised and how GM technology can be adopted for agricultural development in Africa