Errors in recall of age at first sex

Aims: To measure the degree and direction of errors in recall of age at first sex. Method: Participants were initially recruited in 1994–1995 (Wave I) with 3 subsequent follow-ups in: 1996 (Wave II); 2001– 2002 (Wave III); and 2007–2008 (Wave IV). Participants' individual errors in recall of their age at first sex at Wave IV were estimated by the paired difference between responses given for age at first sex in Wave I and Wave IV (recalled age at first sex obtained at Wave IV minus the age at first sex obtained at Wave I). Results: The mean of the recall-estimation of age at first sex at Wave IV was found to be slightly increased comparing to the age at first sex at Wave I (less than 1 year). The errors in the recalled age at first sex tended to increase in participants who had their first sex younger or older than the average, and the recalled age at first sex tended to bias towards the mean (i.e. participants who had first sex younger than the average were more likely to recall an age at first sex that was older than the age, and vice versa). Conclusions: In this U.S. population-based sample, the average recall error for age at first sex was small. However, the accuracy of recalled information varied significantly among subgroup populations

Implied cost of capital investment strategies - evidence from international stock markets

Investors can generate excess returns by implementing trading strategies based on publicly available equity analyst forecasts. This paper captures the information provided by analysts by the implied cost of capital (ICC), the internal rate of return that equates a firm's share price to the present value of analysts' earnings forecasts. We find that U.S. stocks with a high ICC outperform low ICC stocks on average by 6.0% per year. This spread is significant when controlling the investment returns for their risk exposure as proxied by standard pricing models. Further analysis across the world's largest equity markets validates these results

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

Capital structure: the case of firms issuing debt

This study reinvestigates the relationship between financial leverage and firm characteristics in a cross-sectional setting and a panel setting. Monte-Carlo simulation-based inference results confirm the finding of Barraclough (2007) that a cross-sectional multiple regression model sharing common divisors suffers from a latent spurious ratio problem. To avoid the spurious ratio problem, variables in changes instead of ratios are adopted in two panel models: a first-differenced fixed-effects panel model and a dynamic Generalized Method of Moments panel model. The two models respectively integrate fixed effects (e.g. the persistence nature of financial leverage) and endogeneity features of financial leverage decisions. Model results suggest past realization of debt explains most of the current debt level after controlling for endogeneity. We find no significant association between debt and firm characteristics

Determinants of long-term debt issuing decisions: An alternative approach

This paper proposes a probit model to test capital structure theories. Our model is designed to circumvent a methodological problem in traditional regression analysis stemming from the use of scaling (e.g., in the form of financial ratios) that has plagued capital structure studies for more than 100 years (Pearson, 1897). Without correction, this problem potentially yields a spurious relation between the dependent and explanatory variables. For example, a negative relationship between capital leverage and firm profitability is concluded in the literature, which is counter to what is observed in reality. Using a sample of leverage increasing cases resulting from public debt issuances in US markets between 1996 and 2006, our probit model results indicate that leverage increasing firms tend to be more profitable. Our finding is consistent with the fact that, in practice, more profitable firms usually have easier access to debt markets

Polo-like kinase 2 (PLK2) phosphorylates α-synuclein at Serine 129 in central nervous system

Several neurological diseases, including Parkinson disease and dementia with Lewy bodies, are characterized by the accumulation of α-synuclein phosphorylated at Ser-129 (p-Ser-129). The kinase or kinases responsible for this phosphorylation have been the subject of intense investigation. Here we submit evidence that polo-likekinase 2 (PLK2, also known as serum-inducible kinase or SNK) is a principle contributor to α-synuclein phosphorylation at Ser-129 in neurons. PLK2 directly phosphorylates α-synuclein at Ser-129 in an in vitro biochemical assay. Inhibitors of PLK kinases inhibited α-synuclein phosphorylation both in primary cortical cell cultures and in mouse brain in vivo. Finally, specific knockdown of PLK2 expression by transduction with short hairpin RNA constructs or by knock-out of the plk2 gene reduced p-Ser-129 levels. These results indicate that PLK2 plays a critical role in α-synuclein phosphorylation in central nervous system