Heterogeneous interventional indirect effects with multiple mediators: non-parametric and semi-parametric approaches

We propose semi- and non-parametric methods to estimate conditional interventional effects in the setting of two discrete mediators whose causal ordering is unknown. Average interventional indirect effects have been shown to decompose an average treatment effect into a direct effect and interventional indirect effects that quantify effects of hypothetical interventions on mediator distributions. Yet these effects may be heterogeneous across the covariate distribution. We consider the problem of estimating these effects at particular points. We propose an influence-function based estimator of the projection of the conditional effects onto a working model, and show under some conditions that we can achieve root-n consistent and asymptotically normal estimates. Second, we propose a fully non-parametric approach to estimation and show the conditions where this approach can achieve oracle rates of convergence. Finally, we propose a sensitivity analysis for the conditional effects in the presence of mediator-outcome confounding. We propose estimating bounds on the conditional effects using these same methods, and show that these results easily extend to allow for influence-function based estimates of the bounds on the average effects. We conclude examining heterogeneous effects with respect to the effect of COVID-19 vaccinations on depression during February 2021

Optimisation of a lozenge-based sensor for detecting impending blockage of urinary catheters

Catheter-associated urinary tract infections resulting from urease-positive microorganisms are more likely to cause a urinary catheter blockage owing to the urease activity of the microbes. Catheter blockage can be dangerous and increases the risk of severe infections, such as sepsis. Ureases, a virulence factor in Proteus mirabilis, cause an increase in urine pH - leading to blockage. An optimised biosensor "lozenge" is presented here, which is able to detect impending catheter blockage. This lozenge has been optimised to allow easy manufacture and commercialisation. It functions as a sensor in a physiologically representative model of a catheterised urinary tract, providing 6.7 h warning prior to catheter blockage. The lozenge is stable in healthy human urine and can be sterilized for clinical use by ethylene oxide. Clinically, the lozenge will provide a visible indication of impending catheter blockage, enabling quicker clinical intervention and thus reducing the morbidity and mortality associated with blockage.</p

Clouds and convective self-aggregation in a multi-model ensemble of radiative-convective equilibrium simulations

The Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project (RCEMIP) is an intercomparison of multiple types of numerical models configured in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE). RCE is an idealization of the tropical atmosphere that has long been used to study basic questions in climate science. Here, we employ RCE to investigate the role that clouds and convective activity play in determining cloud feedbacks, climate sensitivity, the state of convective aggregation, and the equilibrium climate. RCEMIP is unique amongst intercomparisons in its inclusion of a wide range of model types, including atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs), single column models (SCMs), cloud-resolving models (CRMs), large eddy simulations (LES), and global cloud-resolving models (GCRMs). The first results are presented from the RCEMIP ensemble of more than 30 models. While there are large differences across the RCEMIP ensemble in the representation of mean profiles of temperature, humidity, and cloudiness, in a majority of models anvil clouds rise, warm, and decrease in area coverage in response to an increase in sea surface temperature (SST). Nearly all models exhibit self-aggregation in large domains and agree that self-aggregation acts to dry and warm the troposphere, reduce high cloudiness, and increase cooling to space. The degree of self-aggregation exhibits no clear tendency with warming. There is a wide range of climate sensitivities, but models with parameterized convection tend to have lower climate sensitivities than models with explicit convection. In models with parameterized convection, aggregated simulations have lower climate sensitivities than un-aggregated simulations

Combined searches for the production of supersymmetric top quark partners in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

A combination of searches for top squark pair production using proton-proton collision data at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV at the CERN LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 137 fb(-1) collected by the CMS experiment, is presented. Signatures with at least 2 jets and large missing transverse momentum are categorized into events with 0, 1, or 2 leptons. New results for regions of parameter space where the kinematical properties of top squark pair production and top quark pair production are very similar are presented. Depending on themodel, the combined result excludes a top squarkmass up to 1325 GeV for amassless neutralino, and a neutralinomass up to 700 GeV for a top squarkmass of 1150 GeV. Top squarks with masses from 145 to 295 GeV, for neutralino masses from 0 to 100 GeV, with a mass difference between the top squark and the neutralino in a window of 30 GeV around the mass of the top quark, are excluded for the first time with CMS data. The results of theses searches are also interpreted in an alternative signal model of dark matter production via a spin-0 mediator in association with a top quark pair. Upper limits are set on the cross section for mediator particle masses of up to 420 GeV

Search for new particles in events with energetic jets and large missing transverse momentum in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

A search is presented for new particles produced at the LHC in proton-proton collisions at root s = 13 TeV, using events with energetic jets and large missing transverse momentum. The analysis is based on a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 101 fb(-1), collected in 2017-2018 with the CMS detector. Machine learning techniques are used to define separate categories for events with narrow jets from initial-state radiation and events with large-radius jets consistent with a hadronic decay of a W or Z boson. A statistical combination is made with an earlier search based on a data sample of 36 fb(-1), collected in 2016. No significant excess of events is observed with respect to the standard model background expectation determined from control samples in data. The results are interpreted in terms of limits on the branching fraction of an invisible decay of the Higgs boson, as well as constraints on simplified models of dark matter, on first-generation scalar leptoquarks decaying to quarks and neutrinos, and on models with large extra dimensions. Several of the new limits, specifically for spin-1 dark matter mediators, pseudoscalar mediators, colored mediators, and leptoquarks, are the most restrictive to date.Peer reviewe

Measurements of Higgs boson production cross sections and couplings in the diphoton decay channel at root s=13 TeV

Measurements of Higgs boson production cross sections and couplings in events where the Higgs boson decays into a pair of photons are reported. Events are selected from a sample of proton-proton collisions at root s = 13TeV collected by the CMS detector at the LHC from 2016 to 2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 137 fb(-1). Analysis categories enriched in Higgs boson events produced via gluon fusion, vector boson fusion, vector boson associated production, and production associated with top quarks are constructed. The total Higgs boson signal strength, relative to the standard model (SM) prediction, is measured to be 1.12 +/- 0.09. Other properties of the Higgs boson are measured, including SM signal strength modifiers, production cross sections, and its couplings to other particles. These include the most precise measurements of gluon fusion and vector boson fusion Higgs boson production in several different kinematic regions, the first measurement of Higgs boson production in association with a top quark pair in five regions of the Higgs boson transverse momentum, and an upper limit on the rate of Higgs boson production in association with a single top quark. All results are found to be in agreement with the SM expectations.Peer reviewe

Measurements of the Electroweak Diboson Production Cross Sections in Proton-Proton Collisions at root s=5.02 TeV Using Leptonic Decays

The first measurements of diboson production cross sections in proton-proton interactions at a center-of-mass energy of 5.02 TeV are reported. They are based on data collected with the CMS detector at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 302 pb(-1). Events with two, three, or four charged light leptons (electrons or muons) in the final state are analyzed. The WW, WZ, and ZZ total cross sections are measured as sigma(WW) = 37:0(-5.2)(+5.5) (stat)(-2.6)(+2.7) (syst) pb, sigma(WZ) = 6.4(-2.1)(+2.5) (stat)(-0.3)(+0.5)(syst) pb, and sigma(ZZ) = 5.3(-2.1)(+2.5)(stat)(-0.4)(+0.5) (syst) pb. All measurements are in good agreement with theoretical calculations at combined next-to-next-to-leading order quantum chromodynamics and next-to-leading order electroweak accuracy

Search for lepton-flavor violating decays of the Higgs boson in the mu tau and e tau final states in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

A search is presented for lepton-flavor violating decays of the Higgs boson to mu t and et. The dataset corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 137 fb(-1) collected at the LHC in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. No significant excess has been found, and the results are interpreted in terms of upper limits on lepton-flavor violating branching fractions of the Higgs boson. The observed (expected) upper limits on the branching fractions are, respectively, B(H -> mu t) e tau) < 0.22(0.16)% at 95% confidence level.Peer reviewe

Observation of tW production in the single-lepton channel in pp collisions at root s=13 TeV

A measurement of the cross section of the associated production of a single top quark and a W boson in final states with a muon or electron and jets in proton-proton collisions at root s = 13 TeV is presented. The data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 36 fb(-1) collected with the CMS detector at the CERN LHC in 2016. A boosted decision tree is used to separate the tW signal from the dominant t (t) over bar background, whilst the subleading W+jets and multijet backgrounds are constrained using data-based estimates. This result is the first observation of the tW process in final states containing a muon or electron and jets, with a significance exceeding 5 standard deviations. The cross section is determined to be 89 +/- 4 (stat) +/- 12 (syst) pb, consistent with the standard model.Peer reviewe

Measurement of the top quark mass using events with a single reconstructed top quark in pp collisions at root s=13 TeV

Abstract:A measurement of the top quark mass is performed using a data sample en-riched with single top quark events produced in thetchannel. The study is based on proton-proton collision data, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb−1, recorded at√s= 13TeV by the CMS experiment at the LHC in 2016. Candidate events are selectedby requiring an isolated high-momentum lepton (muon or electron) and exactly two jets,of which one is identified as originating from a bottom quark. Multivariate discriminantsare designed to separate the signal from the background. Optimized thresholds are placedon the discriminant outputs to obtain an event sample with high signal purity. The topquark mass is found to be172.13+0.76−0.77GeV, where the uncertainty includes both the sta-tistical and systematic components, reaching sub-GeV precision for the first time in thisevent topology. The masses of the top quark and antiquark are also determined separatelyusing the lepton charge in the final state, from which the mass ratio and difference aredetermined to be0.9952+0.0079−0.0104and0.83+1.79−1.35GeV, respectively. The results are consistentwithCPTinvariance