Estimates of the Statistics of Randomly Varying Parameters of Linear Systems

Mathematical model used in estimating statistics of randomly varying parameters of linear system

Development of the Standards of Reporting of Neurological Disorders (Strond) Checklist: A Guideline for the Reporting of Incidence and Prevalence Studies in Neuroepidemiology

Background: Incidence and prevalence studies of neurologic disorders play an important role in assessing the burden of disease and planning services. However, the assessment of disease estimates is hindered by problems in reporting for such studies. Despite a growth in published reports, existing guidelines relate to analytical rather than descriptive epidemiologic studies. There are also no user-friendly tools (e.g., checklists) available for authors, editors, and peer reviewers to facilitate best practice in reporting of descriptive epidemiologic studies for most neurologic disorders. Objective: The Standards of Reporting of Neurological Disorders (STROND) is a guideline that consists of recommendations and a checklist to facilitate better reporting of published incidence and prevalence studies of neurologic disorders. Methods: A review of previously developed guidance was used to produce a list of items required for incidence and prevalence studies in neurology. A 3-round Delphi technique was used to identify the “basic minimum items” important for reporting, as well as some additional “ideal reporting items.” An e-consultation process was then used in order to gauge opinion by external neuroepidemiologic experts on the appropriateness of the items included in the checklist. Findings: Of 38 candidate items, 15 items and accompanying recommendations were developed along with a user-friendly checklist. Conclusions: The introduction and use of the STROND checklist should lead to more consistent, transparent, and contextualized reporting of descriptive neuroepidemiologic studies resulting in more applicable and comparable findings and ultimately support better health care decisions

Big data and data repurposing – using existing data to answer new questions in vascular dementia research

Introduction: Traditional approaches to clinical research have, as yet, failed to provide effective treatments for vascular dementia (VaD). Novel approaches to collation and synthesis of data may allow for time and cost efficient hypothesis generating and testing. These approaches may have particular utility in helping us understand and treat a complex condition such as VaD. Methods: We present an overview of new uses for existing data to progress VaD research. The overview is the result of consultation with various stakeholders, focused literature review and learning from the group’s experience of successful approaches to data repurposing. In particular, we benefitted from the expert discussion and input of delegates at the 9th International Congress on Vascular Dementia (Ljubljana, 16-18th October 2015). Results: We agreed on key areas that could be of relevance to VaD research: systematic review of existing studies; individual patient level analyses of existing trials and cohorts and linking electronic health record data to other datasets. We illustrated each theme with a case-study of an existing project that has utilised this approach. Conclusions: There are many opportunities for the VaD research community to make better use of existing data. The volume of potentially available data is increasing and the opportunities for using these resources to progress the VaD research agenda are exciting. Of course, these approaches come with inherent limitations and biases, as bigger datasets are not necessarily better datasets and maintaining rigour and critical analysis will be key to optimising data use

Cause of Death and Predictors of All-Cause Mortality in Anticoagulated Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation : Data From ROCKET AF

M. Kaste on työryhmän ROCKET AF Steering Comm jäsen.Background-Atrial fibrillation is associated with higher mortality. Identification of causes of death and contemporary risk factors for all-cause mortality may guide interventions. Methods and Results-In the Rivaroxaban Once Daily Oral Direct Factor Xa Inhibition Compared with Vitamin K Antagonism for Prevention of Stroke and Embolism Trial in Atrial Fibrillation (ROCKET AF) study, patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation were randomized to rivaroxaban or dose-adjusted warfarin. Cox proportional hazards regression with backward elimination identified factors at randomization that were independently associated with all-cause mortality in the 14 171 participants in the intention-to-treat population. The median age was 73 years, and the mean CHADS(2) score was 3.5. Over 1.9 years of median follow-up, 1214 (8.6%) patients died. Kaplan-Meier mortality rates were 4.2% at 1 year and 8.9% at 2 years. The majority of classified deaths (1081) were cardiovascular (72%), whereas only 6% were nonhemorrhagic stroke or systemic embolism. No significant difference in all-cause mortality was observed between the rivaroxaban and warfarin arms (P=0.15). Heart failure (hazard ratio 1.51, 95% CI 1.33-1.70, P= 75 years (hazard ratio 1.69, 95% CI 1.51-1.90, P Conclusions-In a large population of patients anticoagulated for nonvalvular atrial fibrillation, approximate to 7 in 10 deaths were cardiovascular, whereasPeer reviewe

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk outcome associations. Methods: We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings: In 2017,34.1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33.3-35.0) deaths and 121 billion (144-1.28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61.0% (59.6-62.4) of deaths and 48.3% (46.3-50.2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10.4 million (9.39-11.5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7.10 million [6.83-7.37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6.53 million [5.23-8.23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4.72 million [2.99-6.70] deaths and 148 million [98.6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1.43 million [1.36-1.51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4.9% (3.3-6.5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23.5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18.6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Usability and feasibility of PreventS-MD webapp for stroke prevention.

BACKGROUND: Most strokes and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are potentially preventable if their risk factors are identified and well controlled. Digital platforms, such as the PreventS-MD webapp (PreventS-MD) may aid health care professionals (HCPs) in assessing and managing risk factors and promoting lifestyle changes for their patients. METHODS: This is a mixed methods cross-sectional 2-phase survey using a largely positivist (quantitative and qualitative) framework. During phase 1, a prototype of PreventS-MD was tested internationally by 59 of 69 consenting HCPs of different backgrounds, age, sex, working experience and specialities using hypothetical data. Collected comments/suggestions from the study HCPs in phase 1 were reviewed and implemented. In phase 2, a near-final version of PreventS-MD was developed and tested by 58 of 72 consenting HCPs using both hypothetical and real patient (n=10) data. Qualitative semi-structured interviews with real patients (n=10) were conducted, and 1-month adherence to the preventative recommendations was assessed by self-reporting. The four System Usability Scale (SUS) groups of scores (0-50 unacceptable; 51-68 poor, 68-80.3 good; >80.3 excellent) were used to determine usability of PreventS-MD. FINDINGS: 99 HCPs from 27 countries (45% from low- to middle-income countries) participated in the study, out of whom 10 HCPs were involved in the development of PreventS before the study, and therefore were not involved in the survey. Of the remaining 89 HCPs 69 consented to the first phase of the survey, out of whom 59 completed the first phase of the survey (response rate 86%) and 58 HCPs completed the second phase of the survey (response rate 84%). The SUS scores supported good usability of the prototype (mean score=80.2; 95% CI [77.0-84.0]) and excellent usability of the final version of PreventS-MD (mean score=81.7; 95%CI [79.1-84.3]) in the field. Scores were not affected by the age, sex, working experience or speciality of the HCPs. One month follow-up of the patients confirmed the high level of satisfaction/acceptability of PreventS-MD and (100%) adherence to the recommendations. INTERPRETATION: The PreventS-MD webapp has a high level of usability, feasibility and satisfaction by HCPs and individuals at risk of stroke/CVD. Individuals at risk of stroke/CVD demonstrated a high level of confidence and motivation in following and adhering to preventative recommendations generated by PreventS-MD

Multi-level community interventions for primary stroke prevention: A conceptual approach by the World Stroke Organization

The increasing burden of stroke and dementia emphasizes the need for new, well-tolerated and cost-effective primary prevention strategies that can reduce the risks of stroke and dementia worldwide, and specifically in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This paper outlines conceptual frameworks of three primary stroke prevention strategies: (a) the “polypill” strategy; (b) a “population-wide” strategy; and (c) a “motivational population-wide” strategy. (a) A polypill containing generic low-dose ingredients of blood pressure and lipid-lowering medications (e.g. candesartan 16 mg, amlodipine 2.5 mg, and rosuvastatin 10 mg) seems a safe and cost-effective approach for primary prevention of stroke and dementia. (b) A population-wide strategy reducing cardiovascular risk factors in the whole population, regardless of the level of risk is the most effective primary prevention strategy. A motivational population-wide strategy for the modification of health behaviors (e.g. smoking, diet, physical activity) should be based on the principles of cognitive behavioral therapy. Mobile technologies, such as smartphones, offer an ideal interface for behavioral interventions (e.g. Stroke Riskometer app) even in LMICs. (c) Community health workers can improve the maintenance of lifestyle changes as well as the adherence to medication, especially in resource poor areas. An adequate training of community health workers is a key point

Risk factors and in-hospital outcomes in stroke and myocardial infarction patients

BACKGROUND: Acute stroke (AS) and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) share major risk factors such as age, gender, and high blood pressure. The main objective of this study was to compare vascular risk factor profiles with in-hospital outcomes in AS and AMI patients. METHODS: We evaluated 486 consecutive patients who were admitted to Bjelovar General Hospital with diagnoses of AS (ischaemic stroke or intracerebral haemorrhage; N = 380) or AMI (N = 106) during a one year period. The frequency of risk factors and in-patient mortality rates were assessed in both groups. For statistical analysis we used t-tests and χ(2 )tests. RESULTS: AS patients were significantly older than AMI patients: the mean age for AS patients was 68.9 ± 9.1 years, and for AMI patients was 62.8 ± 11.7 years (p < 0.001). AMI was significantly more common than AS in patients younger than 65 years; 51% of this group had AMI and 26% had AS (p < 0.001). Hypertension was a more common risk factor in AS patients (69% AS patients vs. 58% AMI patients; p = 0.042). Patients who died did not differ significantly in age between the groups. In-patient mortality rates were significantly higher in AS than AMI cases (31% vs. 12%, p < 0.001 for all patients; 37% vs.5%, p < 0.001 for men). Women hospitalized for AMI were more likely to die in hospital than men (28% vs. 5%; p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: We found that age at the time of presentation was a significant differentiating factor between patients with AS and AMI. The only exceptions were women, whose ages at the onset of AS and AMI were similar. In contrast, patients who died did not differ significantly in age. We observed significantly higher inpatient mortality for men (when adjusted for age) than for women with AS. The five-fold higher in-patient mortality rate in women than in men with AMI is most likely to have resulted from other factors related to treatment

Heart failure associated with imported malaria:a nationwide Danish cohort study

Abstract Aims Despite adequate treatment, recent studies have hypothesized that malaria may affect long‐term cardiovascular function. We aimed to investigate the long‐term risk of cardiovascular events and death in individuals with a history of imported malaria in Denmark. Methods Using nationwide Danish registries, we followed individuals with a history of malaria for the risk of incident heart failure (HF), myocardial infarction (MI), cardiovascular death and all‐cause death (1 January 1994 to 1 January 2017). The population was age‐ and sex‐matched with individuals without a history of malaria from the Danish population (ratio 1:9). We excluded patients with known HF and ischaemic heart disease at inclusion. Results We identified 3912 cases with a history of malaria (mean age 33 ± 17 years, 57% male, 41% Plasmodium falciparum infections). The median follow‐up was 9.8 years (interquartile range 3.9–16.4 years). Event rates per 1000 person‐years for individuals with a history vs. no history of malaria were HF: 1.84 vs. 1.32; MI: 1.28 vs. 1.30; cardiovascular death: 1.40 vs. 1.77; and all‐cause death: 5.04 vs. 5.28. In Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, concomitant pharmacotherapy, region of origin, household income and educational level, malaria was associated with HF (HR: 1.59 [1.21–2.09], P = 0.001), but not MI (HR: 1.00 [0.72–1.39], P = 1.00), cardiovascular death (HR: 1.00 [0.74–1.35], P = 0.98) or all‐cause death (HR 1.11 [0.94–1.30], P = 0.21). Specifically, P. falciparum infection was associated with increased risk of HF (HR: 1.64 [1.14–2.36], P = 0.008). Conclusion Individuals with a history of imported malaria, specifically P. falciparum, may have an increased risk of incident HF