Safety and efficacy of inactivated varicella zoster virus vaccine in immunocompromised patients with malignancies: a two-arm, randomised, double-blind, phase 3 trial

Background Patients who are immunocompromised because of malignancy have an increased risk of herpes zoster and herpes zoster-related complications. We aimed to investigate the efficacy and safety of an inactivated varicella zoster virus (VZV) vaccine for herpes zoster prevention in patients with solid tumour or haematological malignancies.Methods This phase 3, two-ann, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, inulticentre trial with an adaptive design was done in 329 centres across 40 countries. The trial included adult patients with solid tumour malignancies receiving chemotherapy and those with haematological malignancies, either receiving or not receiving chemotherapy. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive four doses of VZV vaccine inactivated by v irradiation or placebo approximately 30 days apart. The patients, investigators, trial site staff, clinical adjudication committee, and sponsor's clinical and laboratory personnel were masked to the group assignment. The primary efficacy endpoint was herpes zoster incidence in patients with solid tumour malignancies receiving chemotherapy, which was assessed in the modified intention-to-treat population (defined as all randomly assigned patients who received at least one dose of inactivated VZV vaccine or placebo). The primary safety endpoint was serious adverse events up to 28 days after the fourth dose in patients with solid tumour malignancies receiving chemotherapy. Safety endpoints were assessed in all patients who received at least one dose of inactivated VZV vaccine or placebo and had follow-up data. This trial is registered (NCT01254630 and EudraCT 2010-023156-89).Findings Between June 27, 2011, and April 11,2017,5286 patients were randomly assigned to receive VZV vaccine inactivated by gamma irradiation (n=2637) or placebo (n=2649). The haematological malignancy arm was terminated early because of evidence of futility at a planned interim analysis; therefore, all prespecified haematological malignancy endpoints were deemed exploratory. In patients with solid tumour malignancies in the modified intention-to-treat population, confirmed herpes zoster occurred in 22 of 1328 (6.7 per 1000 person-years) VZV vaccine recipients and in 61 of 1350 (18.5 per 1000 person-years) placebo recipients. Estimated vaccine efficacy against herpes zoster in patients with solid tumour malignancies was 63.6% (97.5% CI 36.4 to 79.1), meeting the prespecified success criterion. In patients with solid tumour malignancies, serious adverse events were similar in frequency across treatment groups, occurring in 298 (22.5%) of 1322 patients who received the vaccine and in 283 (21.0%) of 1346 patients who received placebo (risk difference 1.5%, 95% CI -1.7 to 4.6). Vaccine-related serious adverse events were less than 1% in each treatment group. Vaccine-related injection-site reactions were more common in the vaccine group than in the placebo group. In the haematological malignancy group, VZV vaccine was well tolerated and estimated vaccine efficacy against herpes zoster was 16.8% (95% CI -17.8 to 41.3).Interpretation The inactivated VZV vaccine was well tolerated and efficacious for herpes zoster prevention in patients with solid tumour malignancies receiving chemotherapy, but was not efficacious for herpes zoster prevention in patients with haematological malignancies. Copyright (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

ESICM LIVES 2016: part two : Milan, Italy. 1-5 October 2016.

Meeting abstrac

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundEstimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.Methods22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.FindingsGlobal all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.InterpretationGlobal adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic