An individual-based model to explore the impacts of lesser-known social dynamics on wolf populations

The occurrence of wolf populations in human-dominated landscapes is challenging worldwide because of conflicts with human activities. Modeling is an important tool to project wolf dynamics and expansion, and help in decision making concerning management and conservation. However, some individual behaviors and pack dynamics of the wolf life cycle are still unclear to ecologists. Here we present an individual-based model (IBM) to project wolf populations while exploring the lesser-known processes of the wolf life cycle. IBMs are bottom-up models that simulate the fate of individuals interacting with each other, with population-level properties emerging from the individual-level simulations. IBMs are particularly adapted to represent social species such as the wolf that exhibits complex individual interactions. Our IBM projects wolf demography including fine-scale individual behavior and pack dynamics based on up-to-date scientific literature. We explore four processes of the wolf life cycle whose consequences on population dynamics are still poorly understood: the pack dissolution following the loss of a breeder, the adoption of young dispersers by packs, the establishment of new packs through budding, and the different breeder replacement strategies. While running different versions of the IBM to explore these processes, we also illustrate the modularity and flexibility of our model, an asset to model wolf populations experiencing different ecological and demographic conditions. The different parameterization of pack dissolution, territory establishment by budding, and breeder replacement processes influence the projections of wolf populations. As such, these processes require further field investigation to be better understood. The adoption process has a lesser impact on model projections. Being coded in R to facilitate its understanding, we expect that our model will be used and further adapted by ecologists for their own specific applications

Volcanic gas emissions and degassing dynamics at Ubinas and Sabancaya volcanoes; implications for the volatile budget of the central volcanic zone

Emission of volcanic gas is thought to be the dominant process by which volatiles transit from the deep earth to the atmosphere. Volcanic gas emissions, remain poorly constrained, and volcanoes of Peru are entirely absent from the current global dataset. In Peru, Sabancaya and Ubinas volcanoes are by far the largest sources of volcanic gas. Here, we report the first measurements of the compositions and fluxes of volcanic gases emitted from these volcanoes. The measurements were acquired in November 2015. We determined an average SO2 flux of 15.3 ± 2.3 kg s− 1 (1325-ton day− 1) at Sabancaya and of 11.4 ± 3.9 kg s− 1 (988-ton day− 1) at Ubinas using scanning ultraviolet spectroscopy and dual UV camera systems. In-situ Multi-GAS analyses yield molar proportions of H2O, CO2, SO2, H2S and H2 gases of 73, 15, 10 1.15 and 0.15 mol% at Sabancaya and of 96, 2.2, 1.2 and 0.05 mol% for H2O, CO2, SO2 and H2S at Ubinas. Together, these data imply cumulative fluxes for both volcanoes of 282, 30, 27, 1.2 and 0.01 kg s− 1 of H2O, CO2, SO2, H2S and H2 respectively. Sabancaya and Ubinas volcanoes together contribute about 60% of the total CO2 emissions from the Central Volcanic zone, and dominate by far the total revised volatile budget of the entire Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes

Polyoxometalates in the Hofmeister series

We propose a simple experimental procedure based on the cloud point measurement of a non-ionic surfactant as a tool for (i) estimating the super-chaotropic behaviour of polyoxometalates (POMs) and for (ii) establishing a classification of POMs according to their affinity towards polar surfaces

Retrieval of H₂O abundance in Titan's stratosphere:A (re)analysis of CIRS/Cassini and PACS/Herschel observations

Since its first measurement 20 years ago by the Infrared Space Observatory (ISO), the water (H2O) mole fraction in Titan’s stratosphere remains uncertain due to large differences between the determinations from available measurements. More particularly, the recent measurements made from the Herschel observatory (PACS and HIFI) estimated the H2O mole fraction to be 0.023 ppb at 12.1 mbar. A mixing ratio of 0.14 ppb at 10.7 mbar was, however, retrieved from nadir spatially-resolved observations of Cassini/CIRS. At the same pressure level (10.7 mbar), this makes a difference of a factor of 5.5 between PACS and CIRS measurements, and this has notably prevented current models from fully constraining the oxygen flux flowing into Titan’s atmosphere. In this work, we try to understand the differences between the H2O mole fractions estimated from Herschel/PACS and Cassini/CIRS observations. The strategy for this is to 1) analyse recent disc-averaged observations of CIRS to investigate if the observation geometry could explain the previous observed differences, and 2) (re)analyse the three types of observation with the same retrieval scheme to assess if previous differences in retrieval codes/methodology could be responsible for the previous discrepancies. With this analysis, we show that using the same retrieval method better reconcile the previous measurements of these instruments. However, the addition of the disc-averaged CIRS observations, instead of confirming the consistency between the different datasets, reveals discrepancies between one of the CIRS disc-averaged set of observations and PACS measurements. This raises new questions regarding the possibility of latitudinal variations of H2O, which could be triggered by seasonal changes of the meridional circulation. As it has already been shown for nitriles and hydrocarbons, this circulation could potentially impact the latitudinal distribution of H2O through the subsidence or upwelling of air rich in H2O. The possible influence of spatial/time variations of the OH/H2O input flux in Titan’s atmosphere is also discussed. The analysis of more observations will be needed in future work to address the questions arising from this work and to improve the understanding of the sources of H2O in Titan’s atmosphere

Volcanic gas emissions and degassing dynamics at Ubinas and Sabancaya volcanoes; implications for the volatile budget of the central volcanic zone

Emission of volcanic gas is thought to be the dominant process by which volatiles transit from the deep earth to the atmosphere. Volcanic gas emissions, remain poorly constrained, and volcanoes of Peru are entirely absent from the current global dataset. In Peru, Sabancaya and Ubinas volcanoes are by far the largest sources of volcanic gas. Here, we report the first measurements of the compositions and fluxes of volcanic gases emitted from these volcanoes. The measurements were acquired in November 2015. We determined an average SO2 flux of 15.3 +/- 23 kg s(-1) (1325-ton day(-1)) at Sabancaya and of 11.4 +/- 3.9 kg s(-1) (988-ton day(-1)) at Ubinas using scanning ultraviolet spectroscopy and dual UV camera systems. In-situ Multi-GAS analyses yield molar proportions of H2O, CO2, SO2, H2S and H-2 gases of 73, 15, 10 1.15 and 0.15 mol% at Sabancaya and of 96, 2.2, 1.2 and 0.05 mol% for H2O, CO2, SO2 and H2S at Ubinas. Together, these data imply cumulative fluxes for both volcanoes of 282, 30, 27,1.2 and 0.01 kg s(-1) of H2O, CO2, SO2, H2S and H-2 respectively. Sabancaya and Ubinas volcanoes together contribute about 60% of the total CO2 emissions from the Central Volcanic zone, and dominate by far the total revised volatile budget of the entire Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes

Significant Reduction of Antibiotic Use in the Community after a Nationwide Campaign in France, 2002–2007

Didier Guillemot and colleagues describe the evaluation of a nationwide programme in France aimed at decreasing unnecessary outpatient prescriptions for antibiotics. The campaign was successful, particularly in reducing prescriptions for children

Strong constraints on aerosol-cloud interactions from volcanic eruptions.

Aerosols have a potentially large effect on climate, particularly through their interactions with clouds, but the magnitude of this effect is highly uncertain. Large volcanic eruptions produce sulfur dioxide, which in turn produces aerosols; these eruptions thus represent a natural experiment through which to quantify aerosol-cloud interactions. Here we show that the massive 2014-2015 fissure eruption in Holuhraun, Iceland, reduced the size of liquid cloud droplets-consistent with expectations-but had no discernible effect on other cloud properties. The reduction in droplet size led to cloud brightening and global-mean radiative forcing of around -0.2 watts per square metre for September to October 2014. Changes in cloud amount or cloud liquid water path, however, were undetectable, indicating that these indirect effects, and cloud systems in general, are well buffered against aerosol changes. This result will reduce uncertainties in future climate projections, because we are now able to reject results from climate models with an excessive liquid-water-path response

Water Vapor Vertical Profiles on Mars in Dust Storms Observed by TGO/NOMAD

It has been suggested that dust storms efficiently transport water vapor from the near‐surface to the middle atmosphere on Mars. Knowledge of the water vapor vertical profile during dust storms is important to understand water escape. During Martian Year 34, two dust storms occurred on Mars: a global dust storm (June to mid‐September 2018) and a regional storm (January 2019). Here we present water vapor vertical profiles in the periods of the two dust storms (Ls = 162–260° and Ls = 298–345°) from the solar occultation measurements by Nadir and Occultation for Mars Discovery (NOMAD) onboard ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter (TGO). We show a significant increase of water vapor abundance in the middle atmosphere (40–100 km) during the global dust storm. The water enhancement rapidly occurs following the onset of the storm (Ls~190°) and has a peak at the most active period (Ls~200°). Water vapor reaches very high altitudes (up to 100 km) with a volume mixing ratio of ~50 ppm. The water vapor abundance in the middle atmosphere shows high values consistently at 60°S‐60°N at the growth phase of the dust storm (Ls = 195°–220°), and peaks at latitudes greater than 60°S at the decay phase (Ls = 220°–260°). This is explained by the seasonal change of meridional circulation: from equinoctial Hadley circulation (two cells) to the solstitial one (a single pole‐to‐pole cell). We also find a conspicuous increase of water vapor density in the middle atmosphere at the period of the regional dust storm (Ls = 322–327°), in particular at latitudes greater than 60°S

No detection of methane on Mars from early ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter observations

The detection of methane on Mars has been interpreted as indicating that geochemical or biotic activities could persist on Mars today. A number of different measurements of methane show evidence of transient, locally elevated methane concentrations and seasonal variations in background methane concentrations. These measurements, however, are difficult to reconcile with our current understanding of the chemistry and physics of the Martian atmosphere, which-given methane's lifetime of several centuries-predicts an even, well mixed distribution of methane. Here we report highly sensitive measurements of the atmosphere of Mars in an attempt to detect methane, using the ACS and NOMAD instruments onboard the ESA-Roscosmos ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter from April to August 2018. We did not detect any methane over a range of latitudes in both hemispheres, obtaining an upper limit for methane of about 0.05 parts per billion by volume, which is 10 to 100 times lower than previously reported positive detections. We suggest that reconciliation between the present findings and the background methane concentrations found in the Gale crater would require an unknown process that can rapidly remove or sequester methane from the lower atmosphere before it spreads globally