A statistical model for the prediction of wind-speed probabilities in the atmospheric surface layer

Wind fields in the atmospheric surface layer (ASL) are highly three-dimensional and characterized by strong spatial and temporal variability. For various applications such as wind comfort assessments and structural design, an understanding of potentially hazardous wind extremes is important. Statistical models are designed to facilitate conclusions about the occurrence probability of wind speeds based on the knowledge of low-order flow statistics. Being particularly interested in the upper tail regions we show that the statistical behavior of near-surface wind speeds is adequately represented by the Beta distribution. By using the properties of the Beta probability density function in combination with a model for estimating extreme values based on readily available turbulence statistics, it is demonstrated that this novel modelling approach reliably predicts the upper margins of encountered wind speeds. The model’s basic parameter is derived from three substantially different calibrating datasets of flow in the ASL originating from boundary-layer wind-tunnel measurements and direct numerical simulation. Evaluating the model based on independent field observations of near-surface wind speeds showed a high level of agreement between the statistically modelled horizontal wind speeds and measurements. The results show that, based on the knowledge of only a few simple flow statistics (mean wind speed, wind speed fluctuations and integral time scales), the occurrence probability of velocity magnitudes at arbitrary flow locations in the ASL can be estimated with a high degree of confidence

Personal control of the indoor environment in offices: Relations with building characteristics, influence on occupant perception and reported symptoms related to the building-the officair project

Personal control over various indoor environment parameters, especially in the last decades, appear to have a significant role on occupants' comfort, health and productivity. To reveal this complex relationship, 7441 occupants of 167 recently built or retrofitted office buildings in eight European countries participated in an online survey about personal/health/work data as well as physical/psycho-social information. The relationship between the types of control available over indoor environments and the perceived personal control of the occupants was examined, as well as the combined effect of the control parameters on the perceived comfort using multilevel statistical models. The results indicated that most of the occupants have no or low control on noise. Half of the occupants declared no or low control on ventilation and temperature conditions. Almost one-third of them remarked that they do not have satisfactory levels of control for lighting and shading from sun conditions. The presence of operable windows was shown to influence occupants' control perception over temperature, ventilation, light and noise. General building characteristics, such as floor number and floor area, office type, etc., helped occupants associate freedom positively with control perception. Combined controlling parameters seem to have a strong relation with overall comfort, as well as with perception regarding amount of privacy, office layout and decoration satisfaction. The results also indicated that occupants with more personal control may have less building-related symptoms. Noise control parameter had the highest impact on the occupants' overall comfort

Estimation of metabolite networks with regard to a specific covariable: applications to plant and human data

In systems biology, where a main goal is acquiring knowledge of biological systems, one of the challenges is inferring biochemical interactions from different molecular entities such as metabolites. In this area, the metabolome possesses a unique place for reflecting “true exposure” by being sensitive to variation coming from genetics, time, and environmental stimuli. While influenced by many different reactions, often the research interest needs to be focused on variation coming from a certain source, i.e. a certain covariable Xm . Objective Here, we use network analysis methods to recover a set of metabolite relationships, by finding metabolites sharing a similar relation to Xm . Metabolite values are based on information coming from individuals’ Xm status which might interact with other covariables. Methods Alternative to using the original metabolite values, the total information is decomposed by utilizing a linear regression model and the part relevant to Xm is further used. For two datasets, two different network estimation methods are considered. The first is weighted gene co-expression network analysis based on correlation coefficients. The second method is graphical LASSO based on partial correlations. Results We observed that when using the parts related to the specific covariable of interest, resulting estimated networks display higher interconnectedness. Additionally, several groups of biologically associated metabolites (very large density lipoproteins, lipoproteins, etc.) were identified in the human data example. Conclusions This work demonstrates how information on the study design can be incorporated to estimate metabolite networks. As a result, sets of interconnected metabolites can be clustered together with respect to their relation to a covariable of interest

Advances in air quality research – current and emerging challenges

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This review provides a community’s perspective on air quality research focusing mainly on developmentsover the past decade. The article provides perspectives on current and future challenges as well asresearch needs for selected key topics. While this paper is not an exhaustive review of all research areas in thefield of air quality, we have selected key topics that we feel are important from air quality research and policy perspectives. After providing a short historical overview, this review focuses on improvements in characterizingsources and emissions of air pollution, new air quality observations and instrumentation, advances in air qualityprediction and forecasting, understanding interactions of air quality with meteorology and climate, exposure andhealth assessment, and air quality management and policy. In conducting the review, specific objectives were(i) to address current developments that push the boundaries of air quality research forward, (ii) to highlightthe emerging prominent gaps of knowledge in air quality research, and (iii) to make recommendations to guidethe direction for future research within the wider community. This review also identifies areas of particular importancefor air quality policy. The original concept of this review was borne at the International Conferenceon Air Quality 2020 (held online due to the COVID 19 restrictions during 18–26 May 2020), but the articleincorporates a wider landscape of research literature within the field of air quality science. On air pollutionemissions the review highlights, in particular, the need to reduce uncertainties in emissions from diffuse sources,particulate matter chemical components, shipping emissions, and the importance of considering both indoor andoutdoor sources. There is a growing need to have integrated air pollution and related observations from bothground-based and remote sensing instruments, including in particular those on satellites. The research shouldalso capitalize on the growing area of low-cost sensors, while ensuring a quality of the measurements which areregulated by guidelines. Connecting various physical scales in air quality modelling is still a continual issue,with cities being affected by air pollution gradients at local scales and by long-range transport. At the same time,one should allow for the impacts from climate change on a longer timescale. Earth system modelling offers considerablepotential by providing a consistent framework for treating scales and processes, especially where thereare significant feedbacks, such as those related to aerosols, chemistry, and meteorology. Assessment of exposureto air pollution should consider the impacts of both indoor and outdoor emissions, as well as application of moresophisticated, dynamic modelling approaches to predict concentrations of air pollutants in both environments.With particulate matter being one of the most important pollutants for health, research is indicating the urgentneed to understand, in particular, the role of particle number and chemical components in terms of health impact,which in turn requires improved emission inventories and models for predicting high-resolution distributions ofthese metrics over cities. The review also examines how air pollution management needs to adapt to the abovementionednew challenges and briefly considers the implications from the COVID-19 pandemic for air quality.Finally, we provide recommendations for air quality research and support for policy.Peer reviewe

Advances in air quality research – current and emerging challenges

This review provides a community\u27s perspective on air quality research focusing mainly on developments over the past decade. The article provides perspectives on current and future challenges as well as research needs for selected key topics. While this paper is not an exhaustive review of all research areas in the field of air quality, we have selected key topics that we feel are important from air quality research and policy perspectives. After providing a short historical overview, this review focuses on improvements in characterizing sources and emissions of air pollution, new air quality observations and instrumentation, advances in air quality prediction and forecasting, understanding interactions of air quality with meteorology and climate, exposure and health assessment, and air quality management and policy. In conducting the review, specific objectives were (i) to address current developments that push the boundaries of air quality research forward, (ii) to highlight the emerging prominent gaps of knowledge in air quality research, and (iii) to make recommendations to guide the direction for future research within the wider community. This review also identifies areas of particular importance for air quality policy. The original concept of this review was borne at the International Conference on Air Quality 2020 (held online due to the COVID 19 restrictions during 18–26 May 2020), but the article incorporates a wider landscape of research literature within the field of air quality science. On air pollution emissions the review highlights, in particular, the need to reduce uncertainties in emissions from diffuse sources, particulate matter chemical components, shipping emissions, and the importance of considering both indoor and outdoor sources. There is a growing need to have integrated air pollution and related observations from both ground-based and remote sensing instruments, including in particular those on satellites. The research should also capitalize on the growing area of low-cost sensors, while ensuring a quality of the measurements which are regulated by guidelines. Connecting various physical scales in air quality modelling is still a continual issue, with cities being affected by air pollution gradients at local scales and by long-range transport. At the same time, one should allow for the impacts from climate change on a longer timescale. Earth system modelling offers considerable potential by providing a consistent framework for treating scales and processes, especially where there are significant feedbacks, such as those related to aerosols, chemistry, and meteorology. Assessment of exposure to air pollution should consider the impacts of both indoor and outdoor emissions, as well as application of more sophisticated, dynamic modelling approaches to predict concentrations of air pollutants in both environments. With particulate matter being one of the most important pollutants for health, research is indicating the urgent need to understand, in particular, the role of particle number and chemical components in terms of health impact, which in turn requires improved emission inventories and models for predicting high-resolution distributions of these metrics over cities. The review also examines how air pollution management needs to adapt to the above-mentioned new challenges and briefly considers the implications from the COVID-19 pandemic for air quality. Finally, we provide recommendations for air quality research and support for policy

THE MUST MODEL EVALUATION EXERCISE: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF MODELLING RESULTS

The first validation exercise of the COST action 732 lead to a substantial number of simulation results for comparison with the MUST wind tunnel experiments. Validation metrics for selected simulation results of the flow field and the concentrations are presented and compared to the state of the art. In addition mean metrics and corresponding scatter limits are computed from the individual results

An inter-comparison exercise of mesoscale flow models applied to an ideal case simulation

An exercise is described aiming at the comparison of the results of seven mesoscale models used for the simulation of an ideal circulation case. The exercise foresees the simulation of the flow over an ideal sea–land interface including ideal topography in order to verify model deviations on a controlled case. All models involved use the same initial and boundary conditions, circulation and temperature forcings as well as grid resolution in the horizontal and simulate the circulation over a 24-h period of time. The model differences at start are reduced to the minimum by the case specification and consist mainly of the parameterisation and numerical formulation of the fundamental equations of the atmospheric flow. The exercise reveals that despite the reduction of the differences in the case configuration, the differences in model results are still remarkable. An ad hoc investigation using one model of the original seven identifies the treatment of the boundary conditions, the parameterisation of the horizontal diffusion and of the surface heat flux as the main cause for the model deviations. The analysis of ideal cases represents a revealing and interesting exercise to be performed after the validation of models against analytical solution but prior to the application to real cases

THE MUST MODEL EVALUATION EXERCISE: PATTERNS IN MODEL PERFORMANCE

As part of the COST 732 action more than a dozen different research groups have modelled the MUST experiment, as simulated in a wind tunnel. The model evaluation guidance developed within COST 732 recommends \u27exploratory data analysis\u27 as one of the elements in model validation. Experience has shown that such exploratory analysis is crucial to reveal shortcomings of models that might otherwise pass unnoticed. Conditions are best for detecting common patterns and anomalies if you have a situation where several models are put into a common framework – like the case at hand. The available material provides a unique opportunity to identify and explore patterns within model performance