Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Version 4 (ERSST.v4): Part II. Parametric and Structural Uncertainty Estimations

Described herein is the parametric and structural uncertainty quantification for the monthly Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) version 4 (v4). A Monte Carlo ensemble approach was adopted to characterize parametric uncertainty, because initial experiments indicate the existence of significant nonlinear interactions. Globally, the resulting ensemble exhibits a wider uncertainty range before 1900, as well as an uncertainty maximum around World War II. Changes at smaller spatial scales in many regions, or for important features such as Niño-3.4 variability, are found to be dominated by particular parameter choices. Substantial differences in parametric uncertainty estimates are found between ERSST.v4 and the independently derived Hadley Centre SST version 3 (HadSST3) product. The largest uncertainties are over the mid and high latitudes in ERSST.v4 but in the tropics in HadSST3. Overall, in comparison with HadSST3, ERSST.v4 has larger parametric uncertainties at smaller spatial and shorter time scales and smaller parametric uncertainties at longer time scales, which likely reflects the different sources of uncertainty quantified in the respective parametric analyses. ERSST.v4 exhibits a stronger globally averaged warming trend than HadSST3 during the period of 1910–2012, but with a smaller parametric uncertainty. These global-mean trend estimates and their uncertainties marginally overlap. Several additional SST datasets are used to infer the structural uncertainty inherent in SST estimates. For the global mean, the structural uncertainty, estimated as the spread between available SST products, is more often than not larger than the parametric uncertainty in ERSST.v4. Neither parametric nor structural uncertainties call into question that on the global-mean level and centennial time scale, SSTs have warmed notably

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

Satellite observations of the impact of dust in a low‐nutrient, low‐chlorophyll region: Fertilization or artifact?

The coupling between dust aerosols and phytoplankton concentrations in the Mediterranean Sea, a low‐nutrient, low‐chlorophyll region, is examined at different timescales using Sea‐viewing Wide Field‐of‐view Sensor observations (1998–2002). Aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and chlorophyll (MCHL) were used as proxies for dust aerosol and phytoplankton biomass, respectively. The AOT data was qualified using quasi‐true color images in order to ascertain the presence of dust. Strong positive correlations were found between AOT and MCHL on weekly but not on seasonal timescales. However, weekly analyses cannot distinguish between real phytoplankton response and artifacts due to residual dust in the atmosphere or water. Daily time series of AOT and MCHL, for single‐dust events, and their temporal cross‐correlation function were analyzed. Apparent AOT‐driven MCHL increases principally occurred within 0–2 days and most cross correlations were significant at zero lag. In contrast, significant negative or positive correlations at lag greater than 2 days were very few, indicating no compelling evidence that dust enhancement of phytoplankton growth is significant and that the response at near‐zero lags is an artifact of the satellite data processing. Our analysis demonstrates that the dust fertilization does not play a significant role in the sustainment of the phytoplankton dynamics in the Mediterranean Sea

Satellite remote sensing of harmful algal blooms: A new multi-algorithm method for detecting the Florida Red Tide ( Karenia brevis)

In a continuing effort to develop suitable methods for the surveillance of harmful algal blooms (HABs) of Karenia brevis using satellite radiometers, a new multi-algorithm method was developed to explore whether improvements in the remote-sensing detection of the Florida Red Tide was possible. A Hybrid Scheme was introduced that sequentially applies the optimized versions of two pre-existing satellite-based algorithms: an Empirical Approach (using water-leaving radiance as a function of chlorophyll concentration) and a Bio-optical Technique (using particulate backscatter along with chlorophyll concentration). The long-term evaluation of the new multi-algorithm method was performed using a multi-year MODIS dataset (2002–2006; during the boreal Summer–Fall periods – July–December) along the Central West Florida Shelf between 25.75°N and 28.25°N. Algorithm validation was done with in situ measurements of the abundances of K. brevis; cell counts ≥1.5 × 10 4 cells l −1 defined a detectable HAB. Encouraging statistical results were derived when either or both algorithms correctly flagged known samples. The majority of the valid match-ups were correctly identified (∼80% of both HABs and non-blooming conditions) and few false negatives or false positives were produced (∼20% of each). Additionally, most of the HAB-positive identifications in the satellite data were indeed HAB samples (positive predictive value: ∼70%) and those classified as HAB-negative were almost all non-bloom cases (negative predictive value: ∼86%). These results demonstrate an excellent detection capability, on average ∼10% more accurate than the individual algorithms used separately. Thus, the new Hybrid Scheme could become a powerful tool for environmental monitoring of K. brevis blooms, with valuable consequences including leading to the more rapid and efficient use of ships to make in situ measurements of HABs

Long-term evaluation of three satellite ocean color algorithms for identifying harmful algal blooms ( Karenia brevis) along the west coast of Florida: A matchup assessment

We present a simple algorithm to identify Karenia brevis blooms in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of Florida in satellite imagery. It is based on an empirical analysis of collocated matchups of satellite and in situ measurements. The results of this Empirical Approach is compared to those of a Bio-optical Technique – taken from the published literature – and the Operational Method currently implemented by the NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Forecasting System for K. brevis blooms. These three algorithms are evaluated using a multi-year MODIS data set (from July, 2002 to October, 2006) and a long-term in situ database. Matchup pairs, consisting of remotely-sensed ocean color parameters and near-coincident field measurements of K. brevis concentration, are used to assess the accuracy of the algorithms. Fair evaluation of the algorithms was only possible in the central west Florida shelf (i.e. between 25.75°N and 28.25°N) during the boreal Summer and Fall months (i.e. July to December) due to the availability of valid cloud-free matchups. Even though the predictive values of the three algorithms are similar, the statistical measure of success in red tide identification (defined as cell counts in excess of 1.5 × 10 4 cells L −1) varied considerably (sensitivity— Empirical: 86%; Bio-optical: 77%; Operational: 26%), as did their effectiveness in identifying non-bloom cases (specificity— Empirical: 53%; Bio-optical: 65%; Operational: 84%). As the Operational Method had an elevated frequency of false-negative cases (i.e. presented low accuracy in detecting known red tides), and because of the considerable overlap between the optical characteristics of the red tide and non-bloom population, only the other two algorithms underwent a procedure for further inspecting possible detection improvements. Both optimized versions of the Empirical and Bio-optical algorithms performed similarly, being equally specific and sensitive (~ 70% for both) and showing low levels of uncertainties (i.e. few cases of false-negatives and false-positives: ~ 30%)—improved positive predictive values (~ 60%) were also observed along with good negative predictive values (~ 80%)

Further Exploring and Quantifying Uncertainties for Extended ReconstructedSea Surface Temperature (ERSST) Version 4 (v4)

The uncertainty in Extended Reconstructed SST (ERSST) version 4 (v4) is reassessed based upon 1) reconstruction uncertainties and 2) an extended exploration of parametric uncertainties. The reconstruction uncertainty (Ur) results from using a truncated (130) set of empirical orthogonal teleconnection functions (EOTs), which yields an inevitable loss of information content, primarily at a local level. The Ur is assessed based upon 32 ensemble ERSST.v4 analyses with the spatially complete monthly Optimum Interpolation SST product. The parametric uncertainty (Up) results from using different parameter values in quality control, bias adjustments, and EOT definition etc. The Up is assessed using a 1000-member ensemble ERSST.v4 analysis with different combinations of plausible settings of 24 identified internal parameter values. At the scale of an individual grid box, the SST uncertainty varies between 0.3° and 0.7°C and arises from both Ur and Up. On the global scale, the SST uncertainty is substantially smaller (0.03°–0.14°C) and predominantly arises from Up. The SST uncertainties are greatest in periods and locales of data sparseness in the nineteenth century and relatively small after the 1950s. The global uncertainty estimates in ERSST.v4 are broadly consistent with independent estimates arising from the Hadley Centre SST dataset version 3 (HadSST3) and Centennial Observation-Based Estimates of SST version 2 (COBE-SST2). The uncertainty in the internal parameter values in quality control and bias adjustments can impact the SST trends in both the long-term (1901–2014) and “hiatus” (2000–14) periods

Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature, Version 5 (ERSSTv5): Upgrades, Validations, and Intercomparisons

The monthly global 28 3 28 Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) has been revised and updated from version 4 to version 5. This update incorporates a new release of ICOADS release 3.0 (R3.0), a decade of near-surface data from Argo floats, and a new estimate of centennial sea ice from HadISST2. A number of choices in aspects of quality control, bias adjustment, and interpolation have been substantively revised. The resulting ERSST estimates have more realistic spatiotemporal variations, better representation of high-latitude SSTs, and ship SST biases are now calculated relative to more accurate buoy measurements, while the global long-term trend remains about the same. Progressive experiments have been undertaken to highlight the effects of each change in data source and analysis technique upon the final product. The reconstructed SST is systematically decreased by 0.0778C, as the reference data source is switched from ship SST in ERSSTv4 to modern buoy SST in ERSSTv5. Furthermore, high-latitude SSTs are decreased by 0.18–0.28C by using sea ice concentration from HadISST2 over HadISST1. Changes arising from remaining innovations are mostly important at small space and time scales, primarily having an impact where and when input observations are sparse. Cross validations and verifications with independent modern observations show that the updates incorporated in ERSSTv5 have improved the representation of spatial variability over the global oceans, the magnitude of El Niño and La Niña events, and the decadal nature of SST changes over 1930s–40s when observation instruments changed rapidly. Both long- (1900–2015) and short-term (2000–15) SST trends in ERSSTv5 remain significant as in ERSSTv4

Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Version 4 (ERSST.v4). Part I: Upgrades and Intercomparisons

Themonthly Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) dataset, available on global 28328 grids, has been revised herein to version 4 (v4) from v3b. Major revisions include updated and substantially more complete input data from the International Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) release 2.5; revised empirical orthogonal teleconnections (EOTs) and EOT acceptance criterion; updated sea surface temperature (SST) quality control procedures; revised SST anomaly (SSTA) evaluation methods; updated bias adjustments of ship SSTs using the Hadley Centre Nighttime Marine Air Temperature dataset version 2 (HadNMAT2); and buoy SST bias adjustment not previously made in v3b. Tests show that the impacts of the revisions to ship SST bias adjustment in ERSST.v4 are dominant among all revisions and updates. The effect is to make SST 0.18–0.28C cooler north of 308S but 0.18–0.28C warmer south of 308S in ERSST.v4 than in ERSST.v3b before 1940. In comparison with the Met Office SST product [the Hadley Centre Sea Surface Temperature dataset, version 3 (HadSST3)], the ship SST bias adjustment in ERSST.v4 is 0.18–0.28C cooler in the tropics but 0.18–0.28C warmer in the midlatitude oceans both before 1940 and from 1945 to 1970. Comparisons highlight differences in long-term SST trends and SSTA variations at decadal time scales among ERSST.v4, ERSST.v3b, HadSST3, and Centennial Observation-Based Estimates of SST version 2 (COBE-SST2), which is largely associated with the difference of bias adjustments in these SST products. The tests also show that, when compared with v3b, SSTAs in ERSST.v4 can substantially better represent the El Niño/La Niña behavior when observations are sparse before 1940. Comparisons indicate that SSTs in ERSST.v4 are as close to satellite-based observations as other similar SST analyses

Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Version 4 (ERSST.v4): Part II. Parametric and Structural Uncertainty Estimations

Described herein is the parametric and structural uncertainty quantification for the monthly Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) version 4 (v4). A Monte Carlo ensemble approach was adopted to characterize parametric uncertainty, because initial experiments indicate the existence of significant nonlinear interactions. Globally, the resulting ensemble exhibits a wider uncertainty range before 1900, as well as an uncertainty maximum around World War II. Changes at smaller spatial scales in many regions, or for important features such as Niño-3.4 variability, are found to be dominated by particular parameter choices. Substantial differences in parametric uncertainty estimates are found between ERSST.v4 and the independently derived Hadley Centre SST version 3 (HadSST3) product. The largest uncertainties are over the mid and high latitudes in ERSST.v4 but in the tropics in HadSST3. Overall, in comparison with HadSST3, ERSST.v4 has larger parametric uncertainties at smaller spatial and shorter time scales and smaller parametric uncertainties at longer time scales, which likely reflects the different sources of uncertainty quantified in the respective parametric analyses. ERSST.v4 exhibits a stronger globally averaged warming trend than HadSST3 during the period of 1910–2012, but with a smaller parametric uncertainty. These global-mean trend estimates and their uncertainties marginally overlap. Several additional SST datasets are used to infer the structural uncertainty inherent in SST estimates. For the global mean, the structural uncertainty, estimated as the spread between available SST products, is more often than not larger than the parametric uncertainty in ERSST.v4. Neither parametric nor structural uncertainties call into question that on the global-mean level and centennial time scale, SSTs have warmed notably