203 research outputs found

    Evaluation of Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts Based on EPS for a Mountainous Basin in Turkey

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    AbstractWhen designing water structures or managing a watershed it is a challenging task to determine the response of a basin to storm and/or snowmelt. In this study, the Upper Euphrates Basin (10,275 km2 area and elevation range of 1125-3500 m) located at the headwater of Euphrates River, one of Turkey's most important rivers, is selected as the application area. In this region, snowmelt runoff constitutes approximately 2/3 in volume of the total yearly runoff, therefore, runoff modeling and forecasting during spring and early summer is important in terms of energy and water resources management. The aim of the study is to make a forward-oriented, medium-range flow forecasting using Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) which is a pioneer study for Turkey. Conceptual hydrological model HBV, which has a common usage in the literature, is chosen to predict streamflows. According to the results, Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiencies are 0.85 for calibration (2001-2008) and 0.71 for validation (2009-2014) respectively. After calibrating/validating the hydrologic model, EPS data including 51 different combinations produced by ECMWF is used as probability based weather forecasts. Melting period during March-June of 2011 is chosen as the forecast period. The probabilistic skill of EPS based hydrological model results are analyzed to verify the ensemble forecasts

    The long-term effects of a family based economic empowerment intervention (Suubi+Adherence) on suppression of HIV viral loads among adolescents living with HIV in southern Uganda: Findings from 5-year cluster randomized trial

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    BACKGROUND: The rapid scale-up of HIV therapy across Africa has failed to adequately engage adolescents living with HIV (ALWHIV). Retention and viral suppression for this group (ALWHIV) is 50% lower than for adults. Indeed, on the African continent, HIV remains the single leading cause of mortality among adolescents. Strategies tailored to the unqiue developmental and social vulnerabilities of this group are urgently needed to enhance successful treatment. METHODS: We carried out a five-year longitudinal cluster randomized trial (ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT01790373) with adolescents living with HIV (ALWHIV) ages 10 to 16 years clustered at health care clinics to test the effect of a family economic empowerment (EE) intervention on viral suppression in five districuts in Uganda. In total, 39 accredited health care clinics from study districts with existing procedures tailored to adolescent adherence were eligible to participate in the trial. We used data from 288 youth with detectable HIV viral loads (VL) at baseline (158 -intervention group from 20 clinics, 130 -non-intervention group from 19 clinics). The primary end point was undetectable plasma HIV RNA levels, defined as \u3c 40 copies/ml. We used Kaplan-Meier (KM) analysis and Cox proportional hazard models to estimate intervention effects. FINDINGS: The Kaplan-Meier (KM) analysis indicated that an incidence of undetectable VL (0.254) was significantly higher in the intervention condition compared to 0.173 (in non-intervention arm) translated into incidence rate ratio of 1.468 (CI: 1.064-2.038), p = 0.008. Cox regression results showed that along with the family-based EE intervention (adj. HR = 1.446, CI: 1.073-1.949, p = 0.015), higher number of medications per day had significant positive effects on the viral suppression (adj.HR = 1.852, CI: 1.275-2.690, p = 0.001). INTERPRETATION: A family economic empowerment intervention improved treatment success for ALWHIV in Uganda. Analyses of cost effectiveness and scalability are needed to advance incorporation of this intervention into routine practice in low and middle-income countries

    Evaluation of a savings-led family-based economic empowerment intervention for AIDS-affected adolescents in Uganda: A four-year follow-up on efficacy and cost-effectiveness

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    Background Children who have lost a parent to HIV/AIDS, known as AIDS orphans, face multiple stressors affecting their health and development. Family economic empowerment (FEE) interventions have the potential to improve these outcomes and mitigate the risks they face. We present efficacy and cost-effectiveness analyses of the Bridges study, a savings-led FEE intervention among AIDS-orphaned adolescents in Uganda at four-year follow-up. Methods Intent-to-treat analyses using multilevel models compared the effects of two savings-led treatment arms: Bridges (1:1 matched incentive) and BridgesPLUS (2:1 matched incentive) to a usual care control group on the following outcomes: self-rated health, sexual health, and mental health functioning. Total per-participant costs for each arm were calculated using the treatment-on-the-treated sample. Intervention effects and per-participant costs were used to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Findings Among 1,383 participants, 55% were female, 20% were double orphans. Mean age was 12 years at baseline. At 48-months, BridgesPLUS significantly improved self-rated health, (0.25, 95% CI 0.06, 0.43), HIV knowledge (0.21, 95% CI 0.01, 0.41), self-concept (0.26, 95% CI 0.09, 0.44), and self-efficacy (0.26, 95% CI 0.09, 0.43) and lowered hopelessness (-0.28, 95% CI -0.43, -0.12); whereas Bridges improved self-rated health (0.26, 95% CI 0.08, 0.43) and HIV knowledge (0.22, 95% CI 0.05, 0.39). ICERs ranged from 224forhopelessnessto224 for hopelessness to 298 for HIV knowledge per 0.2 standard deviation change. Conclusions Most intervention effects were sustained in both treatment arms at two years post-intervention. Higher matching incentives yielded a significant and lasting effect on a greater number of outcomes among adolescents compared to lower matching incentives at a similar incremental cost per unit effect. These findings contribute to the evidence supporting the incorporation of FEE interventions within national social protection frameworks

    Suubi4Her: a study protocol to examine the impact and cost associated with a combination intervention to prevent HIV risk behavior and improve mental health functioning among adolescent girls in Uganda

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    Background Asset-based economic empowerment interventions, which take an integrated approach to building human, social, and economic capital, have shown promise in their ability to reduce HIV risk for young people, including adolescent girls, in sub-Saharan Africa. Similarly, community and family strengthening interventions have proven beneficial in addressing mental health and behavioral challenges of adolescents transitioning to adulthood. Yet, few programs aimed at addressing sexual risk have applied combination interventions to address economic stability and mental health within the traditional framework of health education and HIV counseling/testing. This paper describes a study protocol for a 5-year, NIMH-funded, cluster randomized-controlled trial to evaluate a combination intervention aimed at reducing HIV risk among adolescent girls in Uganda. The intervention, titled Suubi4Her, combines savings-led economic empowerment through youth development accounts (YDA) with an innovative family strengthening component delivered via Multiple Family Groups (MFG). Methods Suubi4Her will be evaluated via a three-arm cluster randomized-controlled trial design (YDA only, YDA + MFG, Usual Care) in 42 secondary schools in the Central region of Uganda, targeting a total of 1260 girls (ages 15–17 at enrollment). Assessments will occur at baseline, 12, 24, and 36 months. This study addresses two primary outcomes: 1) change in HIV risk behavior and 2) change in mental health functioning. Secondary exploratory outcomes include HIV and STI incidence, pregnancy, educational attainment, financial savings behavior, gender attitudes, and self-esteem. For potential scale-up, cost effectiveness analysis will be employed to compare the relative costs and outcomes associated with each study arm. Conclusions Suubi4Her will be one of the first prospective studies to examine the impact and cost of a combination intervention integrating economic and social components to reduce known HIV risk factors and improve mental health functioning among adolescent girls, while concurrently exploring mental health as a mediator in HIV risk reduction. The findings will illuminate the pathways that connect economic needs, mental health, family support, and HIV risk. If successful, the results will promote holistic HIV prevention strategies to reduce risk among adolescent girls in Uganda and potentially the broader sub-Saharan Africa region. Trial registration Clinical Trials NCT03307226 (Registered: 10/11/17)

    Effects of a combination economic empowerment and family strengthening intervention on psychosocial well-being among Ugandan adolescent girls and young women: Analysis of a cluster randomized controlled trial (Suubi4Her)

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    PURPOSE: Economic empowerment and family strengthening interventions have shown promise for improving psychosocial well-being in a range of populations. This study investigates the effect of a combination economic and family strengthening intervention on psychosocial well-being among Ugandan adolescent girls and young women (AGYW). METHODS: We harnessed data from a three-arm cluster randomized controlled trial among AGYW aged 14-17 years in 47 Ugandan secondary schools. Schools were randomized to either a youth development account intervention (YDA) [N = 16 schools], YDA plus a multiple family group intervention (YDA + MFG) [N = 15 schools], or bolstered standard of care (BSOC) [N = 16 schools]. We estimated the effect of each intervention (BSOC = referent) on three measures of psychosocial well-being: hopelessness (Beck\u27s Hopelessness Scale), self-concept (Tennessee Self-Concept Scale), and self-esteem (Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale) at 12 months following enrollment using multi-level linear mixed models for each outcome. RESULTS: A total of 1,260 AGYW (mean age, 15.4) were enrolled-471 assigned to YDA (37%), 381 to YDA + MFG (30%), and 408 to usual care (32%). Over the 12-month follow-up, participants assigned to the YDA + MFG group had significantly greater reductions in hopelessness and improvements in self-esteem outcomes compared to BSOC participants. Those enrolled in the YDA arm alone also had significantly greater reductions in hopelessness compared to BSOC participants. DISCUSSION: Combination interventions, combining economic empowerment (represented here by YDA), and family-strengthening (represented by MFG) can improve the psychosocial well-being of AGYW. The long-term effects of these interventions should be further tested for potential scale-up in an effort to address the persistent mental health treatment gap in resource-constrained settings

    Interest-based negotiation for asset sharing policies

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    Resource sharing is an important but complex problem to be solved. The problem is exacerbated in a coalition context due to policy constraints placed on the resources. Thus, to effectively share resources, members of a coalition need to negotiate on policies and at times refine them to meet the needs of the operating environment. Towards achieving this goal, in this work we propose a novel policy negotiation mechanism based on the interest-based negotiation paradigm. Interest-based negotiation promotes collaboration when compared with more traditional negotiation approaches such as position-based negotiations

    The state of the Martian climate

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    60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes
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