Optimism and commitment: An elementary theory of bargaining and war

We propose an elementary theory of wars fought by fully rational contenders. Two parties play a Markov game that combines stages of bargaining with stages where one side has the ability to impose surrender on the other. Under uncertainty and incomplete information, in the unique equilibrium of the game, long confrontations occur: war arises when reality disappoints initial (rational) optimism, and it persist longer when both agents are optimists but reality proves both wrong. Bargaining proposals that are rejected initially might eventually be accepted after several periods of confrontation. We provide an explicit computation of the equilibrium, evaluating the probability of war, and its expected losses as a function of i) the costs of confrontation, ii) the asymmetry of the split imposed under surrender, and iii) the strengths of contenders at attack and defense. Changes in these parameters display non-monotonic effects

Global wealth disparities drive adherence to COVID-safe pathways in head and neck cancer surgery

Peer reviewe

Effects of hospital facilities on patient outcomes after cancer surgery: an international, prospective, observational study

Background Early death after cancer surgery is higher in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared with in high-income countries, yet the impact of facility characteristics on early postoperative outcomes is unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the association between hospital infrastructure, resource availability, and processes on early outcomes after cancer surgery worldwide.Methods A multimethods analysis was performed as part of the GlobalSurg 3 study-a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study of patients who had surgery for breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer. The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and 30-day major complication rates. Potentially beneficial hospital facilities were identified by variable selection to select those associated with 30-day mortality. Adjusted outcomes were determined using generalised estimating equations to account for patient characteristics and country-income group, with population stratification by hospital.Findings Between April 1, 2018, and April 23, 2019, facility-level data were collected for 9685 patients across 238 hospitals in 66 countries (91 hospitals in 20 high-income countries; 57 hospitals in 19 upper-middle-income countries; and 90 hospitals in 27 low-income to lower-middle-income countries). The availability of five hospital facilities was inversely associated with mortality: ultrasound, CT scanner, critical care unit, opioid analgesia, and oncologist. After adjustment for case-mix and country income group, hospitals with three or fewer of these facilities (62 hospitals, 1294 patients) had higher mortality compared with those with four or five (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.85 [95% CI 2.58-5.75]; p<0.0001), with excess mortality predominantly explained by a limited capacity to rescue following the development of major complications (63.0% vs 82.7%; OR 0.35 [0.23-0.53]; p<0.0001). Across LMICs, improvements in hospital facilities would prevent one to three deaths for every 100 patients undergoing surgery for cancer.Interpretation Hospitals with higher levels of infrastructure and resources have better outcomes after cancer surgery, independent of country income. Without urgent strengthening of hospital infrastructure and resources, the reductions in cancer-associated mortality associated with improved access will not be realised

The impact of surgical delay on resectability of colorectal cancer: An international prospective cohort study

AIM: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has provided a unique opportunity to explore the impact of surgical delays on cancer resectability. This study aimed to compare resectability for colorectal cancer patients undergoing delayed versus non-delayed surgery. METHODS: This was an international prospective cohort study of consecutive colorectal cancer patients with a decision for curative surgery (January-April 2020). Surgical delay was defined as an operation taking place more than 4 weeks after treatment decision, in a patient who did not receive neoadjuvant therapy. A subgroup analysis explored the effects of delay in elective patients only. The impact of longer delays was explored in a sensitivity analysis. The primary outcome was complete resection, defined as curative resection with an R0 margin. RESULTS: Overall, 5453 patients from 304 hospitals in 47 countries were included, of whom 6.6% (358/5453) did not receive their planned operation. Of the 4304 operated patients without neoadjuvant therapy, 40.5% (1744/4304) were delayed beyond 4 weeks. Delayed patients were more likely to be older, men, more comorbid, have higher body mass index and have rectal cancer and early stage disease. Delayed patients had higher unadjusted rates of complete resection (93.7% vs. 91.9%, P = 0.032) and lower rates of emergency surgery (4.5% vs. 22.5%, P < 0.001). After adjustment, delay was not associated with a lower rate of complete resection (OR 1.18, 95% CI 0.90-1.55, P = 0.224), which was consistent in elective patients only (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.69-1.27, P = 0.672). Longer delays were not associated with poorer outcomes. CONCLUSION: One in 15 colorectal cancer patients did not receive their planned operation during the first wave of COVID-19. Surgical delay did not appear to compromise resectability, raising the hypothesis that any reduction in long-term survival attributable to delays is likely to be due to micro-metastatic disease

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

The role of event related potentials in evaluation of subclinical cognitive dysfunction in epileptic patients

Nazliel, Bijen/0000-0002-6148-3814WOS: 000259225000005PubMed: 18795598Background/Aim : Cognitive dysfunction ill epileptic patients may develop due to the neurophysiological changes related to seizures or antiepileptic drugs. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cognitive dysfunction ill epileptic patients under antiepileptic drug therapy by the aid of event related potentials. Method: P300 latencies were obtained from F-z, C-z and P-z electrod positions from both epileptic patients (n = 40) and age and sex matched control group (n = 40). Epileptic patients were, classified either idiopathic primary generalized (IPGE) (n = 9) or secondary generalized epilepsy (SGE) (n = 31) based oil the ILAE classification The effect of epilepsy hype, treatment types (monotherapy/polytherapy), daily dosages and serum levels of antiepileptic drugs, age at onset and EEG abnormalities oil P300 latencies were studied. Results : P300 latencies were longer ill the epileptics when compared to controls (P 0.05). Antiepileptic drug subgroups revealed variable effects on ERP latencies. Conclusion : We believe P300 latencies may have all important role in the evaluation of subclinical cognitive dysfunction in epileptic patients treated with antiepileptic drags

Anal Canal Duplication in Adults: Report of Five Cases

Anal canal duplications are very rare noncommunicating second anal orifices located posterior to the true anus. In this study, 5 adult cases of anal canal duplication are reported as extremely rare entities in the literature. The medical records of anal canal duplication patients treated from 2011 to 2014 were reviewed retrospectively. Five adult patients with symptoms of mucous discharge, anal pain, and or perianal fistula/abscess were admitted. Findings of physical examination and radiologic imaging (pelvic magnetic resonance, endoanal ultrasound, and or colonoscopy) suggested anal canal duplication. The mean age of patients was 40.4 +/- 8.7 (range, 33-55), and the mean follow-up period was 18.4 +/- 11.2 (range, 6-36) months. Histologic features of the removed samples confirmed anal canal duplication. All patients underwent complete surgical excision of the rudimentary anal canal. Anal canal duplication is a very rare congenital anomaly, and 5 additional adult cases are reported. Although this is a referral center, the recent accumulation of 5 adult cases of anal canal duplication suggests that this malformation might be more prevalent and frequently overlooked

Preventing the recurrence of acute anorectal abscesses utilizing a loose seton: a pilot study.

INTRODUCTION: This pilot study aimed to document our results of treating anorectal abscesses with drainage plus loose seton for possible coexisting high fistulas or drainage plus fistulotomy for low tracts at the same operation. METHODS: Drainage plus fistulotomy were performed only in cases with subcutaneous mucosa, intersphincteric, or apparently low transsphincteric fistula tracts. For all other cases with high transsphincteric fistula or those with questionable sphincter involvement, a loose seton was placed through the tract. Drainage only was carried out in 17 patients. RESULTS: Twenty-three patients underwent drainage plus loose seton. Drainage plus fistulotomy were performed in four cases. None of the patients developed recurrent abscess during a follow-up of 12 months. Not surprisingly, the incontinence scores were similar pre and post-operatively (p=0.564). Only minor complications occurred in 4 cases (14.8 percent). Secondary interventions following loose seton were carried out in 13 patients (48.1 percent). At 12 months, drainage only was followed by 10 recurrences (58.8 percent; p<0.0001, compared with concomitant surgery). CONCLUSION: Concomitant loose seton treatment of high fistula tracts associated with anorectal abscess prevents abscess recurrence without significant complications or disturbance of continence. Concomitant fistulotomy for associated low fistulas also aids in the same clinical outcome. Concomitant fistula treatment with the loose seton may suffice in treating the whole disease process in selected cases. Even in patients with high fistula tracts, the loose seton makes fistula surgery simpler with a mature tract. Abscess recurrence is high after drainage only

Preventing the recurrence of acute anorectal abscesses utilizing a loose seton: A pilot study

Introduction: this pilot study aimed to document our results of treating anorectal abscesses with drainage plus loose seton for possible coexisting high fistulas or drainage plus fistulotomy for low tracts at the same operation. Methods: drainage plus fistulotomy were performed only in cases with subcutaneous mucosa, intersphincteric, or apparently low transsphincteric fistula tracts. For all other cases with high transsphincteric fistula or those with questionable sphincter involvement, a loose seton was placed through the tract. Drainage only was carried out in 17 patients. Results: twenty-three patients underwent drainage plus loose seton. Drainage plus fistulotomy were performed in four cases. None of the patients developed recurrent abscess during a follow-up of 12 months. Not surprisingly, the incontinence scores were similar pre and post-operatively (p=0.564). Only minor complications occurred in 4 cases (14.8 percent). Secondary interventions following loose seton were carried out in 13 patients (48.1 percent). At 12 months, drainage only was followed by 10 recurrences (58.8 percent; p<0.0001, compared with concomitant surgery). Conclusion: concomitant loose seton treatment of high fistula tracts associated with anorectal abscess prevents abscess recurrence without significant complications or disturbance of continence. Concomitant fistulotomy for associated low fistulas also aids in the same clinical outcome. Concomitant fistula treatment with the loose seton may suffice in treating the whole disease process in selected cases. Even in patients with high fistula tracts, the loose seton makes fistula surgery simpler with a mature tract. Abscess recurrence is high after drainage only. © Timucin Erol et al