Global Opportunities to Increase Agricultural Independence Through Phosphorus Recycling

Food production hinges largely upon access to phosphorus (P) fertilizer. Most fertilizer P used in the global agricultural system comes from mining of nonrenewable phosphate rock deposits located within few countries. However, P contained in livestock manure or urban wastes represents a recyclable source of P. To inform development of P recycling technologies and policies, we examined subnational, national, and global spatial patterns for two intersections of land use affording high P recycling potential: (a) manure‐rich cultivated areas and (b) populous cultivated areas. In turn, we examined overlap between P recycling potential and nation‐level P fertilizer import dependency. Populous cultivated areas were less abundant globally than manure‐rich cultivated areas, reflecting greater segregation between crops and people compared to crops and livestock, especially in the Americas. Based on a global hexagonal grid (290‐km2 grid cell area), disproportionately large shares of subnational “hot spots” for P recycling potential occurred in India, China, Southeast Asia, Europe, and parts of Africa. Outside of China, most of the remaining manure‐rich or populous cultivated areas occurred within nations that had relatively high imports of P fertilizer (net P import:consumption ratios ≥0.4) or substantial increases in fertilizer demand between the 2000s (2002–2006) and 2010s (2010–2014). Manure‐rich cultivated grid cells (those above the 75th percentiles for both manure and cropland extent) represented 12% of the global grid after excluding cropless cells. Annually, the global sum of animal manure P was at least 5 times that contained in human excreta, and among cultivated cells the ratio was frequently higher (median = 8.9). The abundance of potential P recycling hot spots within nations that have depended on fertilizer imports or experienced rising fertilizer demand could prove useful for developing local P sources and maintaining agricultural independence

Constraints on Earth system functioning at the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum from the marine silicon cycle

The Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ca. 56 Ma) is marked by a negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE) and increased global temperatures. The CIE is thought to result from the release of 13C‐depleted carbon, although the source(s) of carbon and triggers for its release, its rate of release, and the mechanisms by which the Earth system recovered are all debated. Many of the proposed mechanisms for the onset and recovery phases of the PETM make testable predictions about the marine silica cycle, making silicon isotope records a promising tool to address open questions about the PETM. We analyzed silicon isotope ratios (δ30Si) in radiolarian tests and sponge spicules from the Western North Atlantic (ODP Site 1051) across the PETM. Radiolarian δ30Si decreases by 0.6‰ from a background of 1‰ coeval with the CIE, while sponge δ30Si remains consistent at 0.2‰. Using a box model to test the Si cycle response to various scenarios, we find the data are best explained by a weak silicate weathering feedback, implying the recovery was mostly driven by nondiatom organic carbon burial, the other major long‐term carbon sink. We find no resolvable evidence for a volcanic trigger for carbon release, or for a change in regional oceanography. Better understanding of radiolarian Si isotope fractionation and more Si isotope records spanning the PETM are needed to confirm the global validity of these conclusions, but they highlight how the coupling between the silica and carbon cycles can be exploited to yield insight into the functioning of the Earth system

Normal-Mode-Analysis–Monitored Energy Minimization Procedure for Generating Small–Molecule Bound Conformations

The energy minimization of a small molecule alone does not automatically stop at a local minimum of the potential energy surface of the molecule if the minimum is shallow, thus leading to folding of the molecule and consequently hampering the generation of the bound conformation of a guest in the absence of its host. This questions the practicality of virtual screening methods that use conformations at local minima of their potential energy surfaces (local minimum conformations) as potential bound conformations. Here we report a normal-mode-analysis–monitored energy minimization (NEM) procedure that generates local minimum conformations as potential bound conformations. Of 22 selected guest–host complex crystal structures with guest structures possessing up to four rotatable bonds, all complexes were reproduced, with guest mass–weighted root mean square deviations of <1.0 Å, through docking with the NEM–generated guest local minimum conformations. An analysis of the potential energies of these local minimum conformations showed that 22 (100%), 18 (82%), 16 (73%), and 12 (55%) of the 22 guest bound conformations in the crystal structures had conformational strain energies of less than or equal to 3.8, 2.0, 0.6, and 0.0 kcal/mol, respectively. These results suggest that (1) the NEM procedure can generate small–molecule bound conformations, and (2) guests adopt low-strain–energy conformations for complexation, thus supporting the virtual screening methods that use local minimum conformations

Exploring, exploiting and evolving diversity of aquatic ecosystem models: A community perspective

Here, we present a community perspective on how to explore, exploit and evolve the diversity in aquatic ecosystem models. These models play an important role in understanding the functioning of aquatic ecosystems, filling in observation gaps and developing effective strategies for water quality management. In this spirit, numerous models have been developed since the 1970s. We set off to explore model diversity by making an inventory among 42 aquatic ecosystem modellers, by categorizing the resulting set of models and by analysing them for diversity. We then focus on how to exploit model diversity by comparing and combining different aspects of existing models. Finally, we discuss how model diversity came about in the past and could evolve in the future. Throughout our study, we use analogies from biodiversity research to analyse and interpret model diversity. We recommend to make models publicly available through open-source policies, to standardize documentation and technical implementation of models, and to compare models through ensemble modelling and interdisciplinary approaches. We end with our perspective on how the field of aquatic ecosystem modelling might develop in the next 5–10 years. To strive for clarity and to improve readability for non-modellers, we include a glossary

The activation of eco-driving mental models: can text messages prime drivers to use their existing knowledge and skills?

Eco-driving campaigns have traditionally assumed that drivers lack the necessary knowledge and skills and that this is something that needs rectifying. Therefore, many support systems have been designed to closely guide drivers and fine-tune their proficiency. However, research suggests that drivers already possess a substantial amount of the necessary knowledge and skills regarding eco-driving. In previous studies, participants used these effectively when they were explicitly asked to drive fuel-efficiently. In contrast, they used their safe driving skills when they were instructed to drive as they would normally. Hence, it is assumed that many drivers choose not to engage purposefully in eco-driving in their everyday lives. The aim of the current study was to investigate the effect of simple, periodic text messages (nine messages in 2 weeks) on drivers’ eco- and safe driving performance. It was hypothesised that provision of eco-driving primes and advice would encourage the activation of their eco-driving mental models and that comparable safety primes increase driving safety. For this purpose, a driving simulator experiment was conducted. All participants performed a pre-test drive and were then randomly divided into four groups, which received different interventions. For a period of 2 weeks, one group received text messages with eco-driving primes and another group received safety primes. A third group received advice messages on how to eco-drive. The fourth group were instructed by the experimenter to drive fuel-efficiently, immediately before driving, with no text message intervention. A post-test drive measured behavioural changes in scenarios deemed relevant to eco- and safe driving. The results suggest that the eco-driving prime and advice text messages did not have the desired effect. In comparison, asking drivers to drive fuel-efficiently led to eco-driving behaviours. These outcomes demonstrate the difficulty in changing ingrained habits. Future research is needed to strengthen such messages or activate existing knowledge and skills in other ways, so driver behaviour can be changed in cost-efficient ways

Modeling water quality in the Anthropocene: directions for the next-generation aquatic ecosystem models

“Everything changes and nothing stands still” (Heraclitus). Here we review three major improvements to freshwater aquatic ecosystem models — and ecological models in general — as water quality scenario analysis tools towards a sustainable future. To tackle the rapid and deeply connected dynamics characteristic of the Anthropocene, we argue for the inclusion of eco-evolutionary, novel ecosystem and social-ecological dynamics. These dynamics arise from adaptive responses in organisms and ecosystems to global environmental change and act at different integration levels and different time scales. We provide reasons and means to incorporate each improvement into aquatic ecosystem models. Throughout this study we refer to Lake Victoria as a microcosm of the evolving novel social-ecological systems of the Anthropocene. The Lake Victoria case clearly shows how interlinked eco-evolutionary, novel ecosystem and social-ecological dynamics are, and demonstrates the need for transdisciplinary research approaches towards global sustainability

Anthropogenic perturbation of the carbon fluxes from land to ocean

A substantial amount of the atmospheric carbon taken up on land through photosynthesis and chemical weathering is transported laterally along the aquatic continuum from upland terrestrial ecosystems to the ocean. So far, global carbon budget estimates have implicitly assumed that the transformation and lateral transport of carbon along this aquatic continuum has remained unchanged since pre-industrial times. A synthesis of published work reveals the magnitude of present-day lateral carbon fluxes from land to ocean, and the extent to which human activities have altered these fluxes. We show that anthropogenic perturbation may have increased the flux of carbon to inland waters by as much as 1.0 Pg C yr-1 since pre-industrial times, mainly owing to enhanced carbon export from soils. Most of this additional carbon input to upstream rivers is either emitted back to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide (~0.4 Pg C yr-1) or sequestered in sediments (~0.5 Pg C yr-1) along the continuum of freshwater bodies, estuaries and coastal waters, leaving only a perturbation carbon input of ~0.1 Pg C yr-1 to the open ocean. According to our analysis, terrestrial ecosystems store ~0.9 Pg C yr-1 at present, which is in agreement with results from forest inventories but significantly differs from the figure of 1.5 Pg C yr-1 previously estimated when ignoring changes in lateral carbon fluxes. We suggest that carbon fluxes along the land–ocean aquatic continuum need to be included in global carbon dioxide budgets.Peer reviewe