The use of patient-reported outcome measures to guide referral for hip and knee replacement. Part 1: the development of an evidence based model linking pre-operative score to the probability of gaining benefit from surgery

Aims To calculate how the likelihood of obtaining measurable benefit from hip or knee arthroplasty varies with preoperative patient-reported scores. Methods Existing UK data from 222,933 knee and 209,760 hip arthroplasty patients were used to model an individual’s probability of gaining meaningful improvement after surgery based on their preoperative Oxford Knee or Hip Score (OKS/OHS). A clinically meaningful improvement after arthroplasty was defined as ≥ 8 point improvement in OHS, and ≥ 7 in OKS. Results The upper preoperative score threshold, above which patients are unlikely to achieve any meaningful improvement from surgery, is 41 for knees and 40 for hips. At lower scores, the probability of improvement increased towards a maximum of 88% (knee) and 95% for (hips). Conclusion By our definition of meaningful improvement, patients with preoperative scores above 41 (OKS) and 40 (OHS) should not be routinely referred to secondary care for possible arthroplasty. Using lower thresholds would incrementally increase the probability of meaningful benefit for those referred but will exclude some patients with potential to benefit. The findings are useful to support the complex shared decision-making process in primary care for referral to secondary care; and in secondary care for experienced clinicians counselling patients considering knee or hip arthroplasty, but should not be used in isolation

Lifespan extension and the doctrine of double effect

Recent developments in biogerontology—the study of the biology of ageing—suggest that it may eventually be possible to intervene in the human ageing process. This, in turn, offers the prospect of significantly postponing the onset of age-related diseases. The biogerontological project, however, has met with strong resistance, especially by deontologists. They consider the act of intervening in the ageing process impermissible on the grounds that it would (most probably) bring about an extended maximum lifespan—a state of affairs that they deem intrinsically bad. In a bid to convince their deontological opponents of the permissibility of this act, proponents of biogerontology invoke an argument which is grounded in the doctrine of double effect. Surprisingly, their argument, which we refer to as the ‘double effect argument’, has gone unnoticed. This article exposes and critically evaluates this ‘double effect argument’. To this end, we first review a series of excerpts from the ethical debate on biogerontology in order to substantiate the presence of double effect reasoning. Next, we attempt to determine the role that the ‘double effect argument’ is meant to fulfil within this debate. Finally, we assess whether the act of intervening in ageing actually can be justified using double effect reasoning

An eclipsing binary distance to the Large Magellanic Cloud accurate to 2 per cent

In the era of precision cosmology it is essential to determine the Hubble Constant with an accuracy of 3% or better. Currently, its uncertainty is dominated by the uncertainty in the distance to the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) which as the second nearest galaxy serves as the best anchor point of the cosmic distance scale. Observations of eclipsing binaries offer a unique opportunity to precisely and accurately measure stellar parameters and distances. The eclipsing binary method was previously applied to the LMC but the accuracy of the distance results was hampered by the need to model the bright, early-type systems used in these studies. Here, we present distance determinations to eight long-period, late- type eclipsing systems in the LMC composed of cool giant stars. For such systems we can accurately measure both the linear and angular sizes of their components and avoid the most important problems related to the hot early-type systems. Our LMC distance derived from these systems is demonstrably accurate to 2.2 % (49.97 +/- 0.19 (statistical) +/- 1.11 (systematic) kpc) providing a firm base for a 3 % determination of the Hubble Constant, with prospects for improvement to 2 % in the future.Comment: 34 pages, 5 figures, 13 tables, published in the Nature, a part of our data comes from new unpublished OGLE-IV photometric dat

Investigation of the international comparability of population-based routine hospital data set derived comorbidity scores for patients with lung cancer

Introduction: The International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP) identified significant international differences in lung cancer survival. Differing levels of comorbid disease across ICBP countries has been suggested as a potential explanation of this variation but, to date, no studies have quantified its impact. This study investigated whether comparable, robust comorbidity scores can be derived from the different routine population-based cancer data sets available in the ICBP jurisdictions and, if so, use them to quantify international variation in comorbidity and determine its influence on outcome. Methods: Linked population-based lung cancer registry and hospital discharge data sets were acquired from nine ICBP jurisdictions in Australia, Canada, Norway and the UK providing a study population of 233 981 individuals. For each person in this cohort Charlson, Elixhauser and inpatient bed day Comorbidity Scores were derived relating to the 4–36 months prior to their lung cancer diagnosis. The scores were then compared to assess their validity and feasibility of use in international survival comparisons. Results: It was feasible to generate the three comorbidity scores for each jurisdiction, which were found to have good content, face and concurrent validity. Predictive validity was limited and there was evidence that the reliability was questionable. Conclusion: The results presented here indicate that interjurisdictional comparability of recorded comorbidity was limited due to probable differences in coding and hospital admission practices in each area. Before the contribution of comorbidity on international differences in cancer survival can be investigated an internationally harmonised comorbidity index is required

First-year Sloan Digital Sky Survey-II (SDSS-II) Supernova Results: Hubble Diagram and Cosmological Parameters

We present measurements of the Hubble diagram for 103 Type Ia supernovae (SNe) with redshifts 0.04 < z < 0.42, discovered during the first season (Fall 2005) of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey-II (SDSS-II) Supernova Survey. These data fill in the redshift "desert" between low- and high-redshift SN Ia surveys. We combine the SDSS-II measurements with new distance estimates for published SN data from the ESSENCE survey, the Supernova Legacy Survey, the Hubble Space Telescope, and a compilation of nearby SN Ia measurements. Combining the SN Hubble diagram with measurements of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations from the SDSS Luminous Red Galaxy sample and with CMB temperature anisotropy measurements from WMAP, we estimate the cosmological parameters w and Omega_M, assuming a spatially flat cosmological model (FwCDM) with constant dark energy equation of state parameter, w. For the FwCDM model and the combined sample of 288 SNe Ia, we find w = -0.76 +- 0.07(stat) +- 0.11(syst), Omega_M = 0.306 +- 0.019(stat) +- 0.023(syst) using MLCS2k2 and w = -0.96 +- 0.06(stat) +- 0.12(syst), Omega_M = 0.265 +- 0.016(stat) +- 0.025(syst) using the SALT-II fitter. We trace the discrepancy between these results to a difference in the rest-frame UV model combined with a different luminosity correction from color variations; these differences mostly affect the distance estimates for the SNLS and HST supernovae. We present detailed discussions of systematic errors for both light-curve methods and find that they both show data-model discrepancies in rest-frame $U$-band. For the SALT-II approach, we also see strong evidence for redshift-dependence of the color-luminosity parameter (beta). Restricting the analysis to the 136 SNe Ia in the Nearby+SDSS-II samples, we find much better agreement between the two analysis methods but with larger uncertainties.Comment: Accepted for publication by ApJ

Genome wide association mapping of grain arsenic, copper, molybdenum and zinc in rice (Oryza sativa L.) grown at four international field sites

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Prospective study design and data analysis in UK Biobank

Population-based prospective studies, such as UK Biobank, are valuable for generating and testing hypotheses about the potential causes of human disease. We describe how UK Biobank's study design, data access policies, and approaches to statistical analysis can help to minimize error and improve the interpretability of research findings, with implications for other population-based prospective studies being established worldwide.</p

Estimating EQ-5D utilities based on the Short-Form Long Term Conditions Questionnaire (LTCQ-8)

Purpose: The aim of this work was to develop a mapping algorithm for estimating EuroQoL 5 Dimension (EQ-5D) utilities from responses to the Long-Term Conditions Questionnaire (LTCQ), thus increasing LTCQ’s potential as a comprehensive outcome measure for evaluating integrated care initiatives. Methods: We combined data from three studies to give a total sample of 1334 responses. In each of the three datasets, we randomly selected 75% of the sample and combined the selected random samples to generate the estimation dataset, which consisted of 1001 patients. The unselected 25% observations from each dataset were combined to generate an internal validation dataset of 333 patients. We used direct mapping models by regressing responses to the LTCQ-8 directly onto EQ-5D-5L and EQ-5D-3L utilities as well as response (or indirect) mapping to predict the response level that patients selected for each of the five EQ-5D-5L domains. Several models were proposed and compared on mean squared error and mean absolute error. Results: A two-part model with OLS was the best performing based on the mean squared error (0.038) and mean absolute error (0.147) when estimating the EQ-5D-5L utilities. A multinomial response mapping model using LTCQ-8 responses was used to predict EQ-5D-5L responses levels. Conclusions: This study provides a mapping algorithm for estimating EQ-5D utilities from LTCQ responses. The results from this study can help broaden the applicability of the LTCQ by producing utility values for use in economic analyses

Patterns of adiposity, vascular phenotypes and cognitive function in the 1946 British Birth Cohort.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between long-term exposure to whole body or central obesity and cognitive function, as well as its potential determinants, remain controversial. In this study, we assessed (1) the potential impact of 30 years exposure to different patterns of whole body and central adiposity on cognitive function at 60-64 years, (2) whether trajectories of central adiposity can provide additional information on later cognitive function compared to trajectories of whole body adiposity, and (3) the influence of vascular phenotypes on these associations. METHODS: The study included 1249 participants from the prospective cohort MRC National Survey of Health and Development. Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and vascular (carotid intima-media thickness, carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity) and cognitive function (memory, processing speed, reaction time) data, at 60-64 years, were used to assess the associations between different patterns of adult WC or BMI (from 36 years of age) and late midlife cognitive performance, as well as the proportion of this association explained by cardiovascular phenotypes. RESULTS: Longer exposure to elevated WC was related to lower memory performance (p < 0.001 for both) and longer choice reaction time (p = 0.003). A faster gain of WC between 36 and 43 years of age was associated with the largest change in reaction time and memory test (P < 0.05 for all). Similar associations were observed when patterns of WC were substituted with patterns of BMI, but when WC and BMI were included in the same model, only patterns of WC remained significantly associated with cognitive function. Participants who dropped one BMI category and maintained a lower BMI had similar memory performance to those of normal weight during the whole follow-up. Conversely, those who dropped and subsequently regained one BMI category had a memory function similar to those with 30 years exposure to elevated BMI. Adjustment for vascular phenotypes, levels of cardiovascular risk factors, physical activity, education, childhood cognition and socioeconomic position did not affect these associations. CONCLUSIONS: Longer exposure to elevated WC or BMI and faster WC or BMI gains between 36 and 43 years are related to lower cognitive function at 60-64 years. Patterns of WC in adulthood could provide additional information in predicting late midlife cognitive function than patterns of BMI. The acquisition of an adverse cardiovascular phenotype associated with adiposity is unlikely to account for these relationships