Credible Commitments and the International Criminal Court

The creation of an International Criminal Court (ICC) to prosecute war crimes poses a real puzzle. Why was it created, and more importantly, why do states agree to join this institution? The ICC represents a serious intrusion into a traditional arena of state sovereignty: the right to administer justice to one's one nationals. Yet more than one hundred states have joined. Social scientists are hardly of one mind about this institution, arguing that it is (alternately) dangerous or irrelevant to achieving its main purposes: justice, peace, and stability. By contrast, we theorize that the ICC is a mechanism to assist states in self-binding, and draw on credible commitments theory to understand who commits to the ICC, and the early consequences of such commitments. This approach explains a counterintuitive finding: the states that are both the least and the most vulnerable to the possibility of an ICC case affecting their citizens have committed most readily to the ICC, while potentially vulnerable states with credible alternative means to hold leaders accountable do not. Similarly, ratification of the ICC is associated with tentative steps toward violence reduction and peace in those countries precisely least likely to be able to commit credibly to foreswear atrocities. These findings support the potential usefulness of the ICC as a mechanism for some governments to commit to ratchet down violence and get on the road to peaceful negotiations.Governmen

When Courts Make Law: How the International Criminal Tribunals Recast the Laws of War

This Article argues that states often tacitly delegate lawmaking authority and that the Security Council did so in the case of the Tribunals. Although the historical record cannot definitely prove its validity, this hypothesis is supported by evidence from other international courts that lawmaking by international judiciaries is widespread and accepted by states, even if formally proscribed. The Article suggests that states do not acknowledge this delegation, however, in order both to perpetuate the fiction of state hegemony over international norm generation and to provide a shield behind which international courts can make law without suffering paralyzing political pressure that would negate their ability to do so. As a normative matter, this Article argues that international judicial lawmaking is most appropriate when the relevant underlying treaties are old, where underlying conditions have changed, and where there is little prospect for the treaties\u27 revision. International judicial lawmaking can usefully modulate the contradictory demands of rule stability and flexibility in the face of changing conditions, a central challenge for all international institutions

Will we need to change the rules : assessing the implications of climate change for dam operations in Oregon's McKenzie River Basin

Dams and reservoirs are important components of water resource management systems, but their operational sensitivity to streamflow variability may make them vulnerable to climate change. Climate change is likely to affect the magnitude and timing of streamflow, motivating the assessment of potential impacts on dams and reservoirs. Here I examine a case study of Cougar Dam, a multipurpose dam in Oregon, USA, to assess potential impacts of future climate change on operational performance. In the first portion of this study, I examine the historical operation of Cougar Dam, to understand (1), whether operational objectives have been achievable in the past despite operational variability, and (2) how climatic variation is expressed in operational trajectories. By analyzing historical streamflow and operations data using a set of metrics, I characterize variability in past operations and how that variability relates to streamflow. I also employ a reservoir model to distinguish operational differences due to streamflow variability from variability due to other factors that affect operations. I find that operational objectives have been achievable, despite variability in operations and departures from the ideal operational trajectory. Throughout the historical period, flood control operations have almost always kept reservoir outflows below the desired maximum outflow. Although filling occurs 9 days late on average, the reservoir has filled in all but 6 out of 37 years. Although drawdown occurs 47 days early on average, early drawdown does not generally impact recreation and allows minimum outflows to be met every day during all but the driest year. I also find that total seasonal inflow is correlated with measures of operational performance, and that other factors besides climate play an important role in determining operational trajectories. I conclude that operations of Cougar Reservoir are vulnerable to climate change, but that operational flexibility may mitigate some of the potential impacts. In the second portion of this study I assume that current operating rules will be kept in place and I aim to understand what types of operational impacts may be expected, when they may be expected to occur, and whether the operational impacts may necessitate changing operational rules. I employ both a traditional climate impacts assessment approach to assess changes over time as well as a scenario-neutral approach to generalize relationships between streamflow and operations of Cougar Dam. I find that projected increases in winter streamflow could result in up to twice the number of downstream high flows than in the past and that projected decreases in summer streamflow could result in earlier reservoir drawdown by up to 20 days on average. Additionally, filling of the reservoir may occur up to 16% more often or 11% less often than in the past, depending on spring flow magnitude and timing. I also find that there are strong general relationships between total inflow volume and flood control performance, and that there are total inflow thresholds for whether or not the reservoir will fill or will be full enough for recreation in late summer. I conclude that future modification of operating policies may be warranted, but that there will likely be tradeoffs between operating objectives in the future even if operating rules are modified

Longitudinal associations between television in the bedroom and body fatness in a UK cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess longitudinal associations between screen-based media use (television (TV) and computer hours, having a TV in the bedroom) and body fatness among UK children. METHODS: Participants were 12 556 children from the UK Millennium Cohort Study who were followed from age 7 to age 11 years. Associations were assessed between screen-based media use and the following outcomes: body mass index (BMI), fat mass index (FMI), and overweight. RESULTS: In fully adjusted models, having a bedroom TV at age 7 years was associated with significantly higher BMI and FMI (excess BMI for boys=0.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.06-0.52; excess BMI for girls=0.57, 95% CI 0.31-0.84; excess FMI for boys=0.20, 95% CI 0.04-0.37; excess FMI for girls=0.39, 95% CI 0.21-0.57) and increased risk of being overweight (relative risk (RR) for boys=1.21, 95% CI 1.07-1.36; RR for girls=1.31, 95% CI 1.15-1.48) at age 11 years, compared with having no bedroom TV. Hours spent watching TV or digital versatile disks were associated with increased risk of overweight among girls only. Computer use at age 7 years was not related to later body fatness for either gender. CONCLUSION: Having a TV in the child's bedroom was an independent risk factor for overweight and increased body fatness in this nationally representative sample of UK children. Childhood obesity prevention strategies should consider TVs in children's bedrooms as a risk factor for obesity.International Journal of Obesity advance online publication, 27 June 2017; doi:10.1038/ijo.2017.129

Dissecting the Shared Genetic Architecture of Suicide Attempt, Psychiatric Disorders, and Known Risk Factors

Background Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, and nonfatal suicide attempts, which occur far more frequently, are a major source of disability and social and economic burden. Both have substantial genetic etiology, which is partially shared and partially distinct from that of related psychiatric disorders. Methods We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 29,782 suicide attempt (SA) cases and 519,961 controls in the International Suicide Genetics Consortium (ISGC). The GWAS of SA was conditioned on psychiatric disorders using GWAS summary statistics via multitrait-based conditional and joint analysis, to remove genetic effects on SA mediated by psychiatric disorders. We investigated the shared and divergent genetic architectures of SA, psychiatric disorders, and other known risk factors. Results Two loci reached genome-wide significance for SA: the major histocompatibility complex and an intergenic locus on chromosome 7, the latter of which remained associated with SA after conditioning on psychiatric disorders and replicated in an independent cohort from the Million Veteran Program. This locus has been implicated in risk-taking behavior, smoking, and insomnia. SA showed strong genetic correlation with psychiatric disorders, particularly major depression, and also with smoking, pain, risk-taking behavior, sleep disturbances, lower educational attainment, reproductive traits, lower socioeconomic status, and poorer general health. After conditioning on psychiatric disorders, the genetic correlations between SA and psychiatric disorders decreased, whereas those with nonpsychiatric traits remained largely unchanged. Conclusions Our results identify a risk locus that contributes more strongly to SA than other phenotypes and suggest a shared underlying biology between SA and known risk factors that is not mediated by psychiatric disorders.Peer reviewe

Opportunities to enhance pollinator biodiversity in solar parks

Renewable power capacity is increasing globally in response to energy decarbonisation, with solar photovoltaic (PV) projected to be the dominant renewable. A significant proportion of solar PV is deployed as ground-mounted solar parks with potential implications for the hosting ecosystem. Given their relatively rapid introduction, the impacts on land use and the local environment are poorly understood. However, if deployed and managed strategically, solar parks could offer unique opportunities to enhance the local environment and benefit biodiversity, with implications for ecosystem components such as pollinators. With a focus on north-west Europe, we systematically review the available evidence on how land management practices relevant to solar parks can enhance pollinator biodiversity. We assessed 185 articles for the quantity and agreement of evidence for 27 management interventions and assigned a confidence score to each finding. We show that a range of interventions applied to solar parks could increase their ability to enhance pollinator biodiversity. We then use our assessment to synthesise ten evidence-based recommendations on how to improve solar park management for pollinators by providing foraging and reproductive resources, undergoing considered management practices, increasing landscape heterogeneity and connectivity and providing microclimatic variation. Ensuring beneficial management of rapidly growing solar parks contributes to their wider environmental sustainability, with positive implications for both pollinator conservation and the energy sector in general