Risk assessment for osteoporotic fractures among men and women from a prospective population study: the EPIC-Norfolk study

For appendices see hardbound copy deposited in the Manuscripts Reading Room, Cambridge University Library.Osteoporotic fractures are a major and increasing clinical and public health concern internationally. Identification of individuals at high risk for fragility fractures may enable us to target preventive interventions more effectively. In this thesis, I aimed to evaluate novel risk factors for osteoporosis and develop a fracture risk assessment model among the middle-aged and older people. I used data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk study, which is a large population-based prospective study started in 1993. About 25,000 men and women were assessed at baseline and about 15,000 of them returned for a second examination 4 years later. All participants are followed up to the present for clinical events including fractures. My work is in two parts. For the first part, I examined the risk of fracture associated with some novel or less well studied risk factors. These risk factors included change in height over time, respiratory function, physical activity and body fat mass. We found that men and women with annual height loss >0.5 cm are at increased risk of hip and any fracture (relative risk=1.9 (95% CI 1.3-2.7) per cm/year height loss). One litre lower forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) was associated with a 2-fold risk of hip fracture in men and women. We also observed a non-linear association, independent of body mass index, between increasing body fat mass and lower fracture risk in women but not in men. I performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies evaluating the association between physical activity and hip fractures. Using a new validated questionnaire in EPIC-Norfolk, we observed varying relationships between physical activity in different domains of life and fracture risk in men and women. For the second part of the thesis, I developed a biostatistical model to calculate 10-year risk of developing a fracture among EPIC-Norfolk study participants. This model incorporates clinical and radiological assessments known to be associated with fractures and can be extended to other risk factors assessed in other prospective cohorts. This helps clinicians to achieve a better estimate of the prospective risk of fracture in their patients. I applied this model to compare the predictive value of two different clinical assessment methods for osteoporosis, namely dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and quantitative ultrasound (QUS). We found that that the predictive power of QUS is comparable to, and independent of, predictive power of DXA. In summary, my studies have added to our knowledge about some novel and easy-to-use risk factors of osteoporosis and proposed a practical method to merge and utilise data from different risk factors for estimation of fracture risk in individuals

Frequency of myasthenic crisis in relation to thymectomy in generalized myasthenia gravis: A 17-year experience

BACKGROUND: Myasthenic crisis is the most serious life-threatening event in generalized myasthenia gravis (MG) patients. The objective of this study was to assess the long-term impact of thymectomy on rate and severity of these attacks in Iranian patients. METHODS: We reviewed the clinical records from 272 myasthenic patients diagnosed and treated in our neurology clinic during 1985 to 2002. Fifty-three patients were excluded because of unconfirmed diagnosis, ocular form of MG, contraindication to surgery, concomitant diseases and loss to follow-up. The Osserman classification was used to assess the initial severity of the disease. Frequency and severity of the attacks were compared between two groups with appropriate statistical tests according to the nature of variables. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to assess the predictors of myasthenic crisis in the group of patients without thymoma. RESULTS: 110 patients were in thymectomy group and the other 109 patients were on medical therapy. These two groups had no significant differences with respect to age at onset, gender, Osserman score in baseline and follow up period. 62 patients (28.3% of all 219 patients) had reported 89 attacks of myasthenic crisis. 20 patients of 62 (32%) were in thymectomy group and 42 (68%) were in the other group. There was significant difference between the two groups in number of patients with crisis (P = 0.001; odds ratio = 2.8 with 95% CI of 1.5 to 5.2). In addition, these attacks were more severe in group of non-thymectomized patients as the duration of ICU admission was longer and they needed more ventilatory support during their attacks. Regression model showed thymectomy and lower age at onset as two predictors of decrement in myasthenic crisis rate in non-thymomatous MG patients. CONCLUSIONS: It is suggested that frequency and severity of myasthenic attacks as important endpoints in evaluation of MG patients. Thymectomy seems to have a preventive role on rate and severity of these attacks

Body Fat Percentage and Long-Term Risk of Fractures. The EPIC-Norfolk Prospective Population Cohort Study

Funding: MPT, SM, SHK and PKM are recipients of a Malaysian Ministry of Higher Education Fundamental Research Grant Scheme grant (FP102-2019A) which funds SHK’s salary. SRN received Vacation Scholarship Grant from Medical Research Scotland (Vac26 1196-2018). The EPIC-Norfolk study (DOI 10.22025/2019.10.105.00004) has received funding from the Medical Research Council (MR/N003284/1 and MC-UU_12015/1) and Cancer Research UK (C864/A14136).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Discordance in diagnosis of osteoporosis using spine and hip bone densitometry

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic discordance for osteoporosis is the observation that the T-score of an individual patient varies from one key measurement site to another, falling into two different diagnostic categories identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) classification system. This study was conducted to evaluate the presence and risk factors for this phenomenon in a large sample of Iranian population. METHODS: Demographic data, anthropometric measurements, and risk factors for osteoporosis were derived from a database on 4229 patients referred to a community-based outpatient osteoporosis testing center from 2000 to 2003. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) was performed on L1–L4 lumbar spine and total hip for all cases. Minor discordance was defined as present when the difference between two sites was no more than one WHO diagnostic class. Major discordance was present when one site is osteoporotic and the other is normal. Subjects with incomplete data were excluded. RESULTS: In 4188 participants (3848 female, mean age 53.4 ± 11.8 years), major discordance, minor discordance, and concordance of T-scores were seen in 2.7%, 38.9% and 58.3%, respectively. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, older age, menopause, obesity, and belated menopause were recognized as risk factors and hormone replacement therapy as a protective factor against T-score discordance. CONCLUSION: The high prevalence of T-score discordance may lead to problems in interpretation of the densitometry results for some patients. This phenomenon should be regarded as a real and prevalent finding and physicians should develop a particular strategy approaching to these patients

Genetic determinants of heel bone properties: genome-wide association meta-analysis and replication in the GEFOS/GENOMOS consortium

Quantitative ultrasound of the heel captures heel bone properties that independently predict fracture risk and, with bone mineral density (BMD) assessed by X-ray (DXA), may be convenient alternatives for evaluating osteoporosis and fracture risk. We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association (GWA) studies to assess the genetic determinants of heel broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA; n = 14 260), velocity of sound (VOS; n = 15 514) and BMD (n = 4566) in 13 discovery cohorts. Independent replication involved seven cohorts with GWA data (in silico n = 11 452) and new genotyping in 15 cohorts (de novo n = 24 902). In combined random effects, meta-analysis of the discovery and replication cohorts, nine single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) had genome-wide significant (P < 5 × 10(-8)) associations with heel bone properties. Alongside SNPs within or near previously identified osteoporosis susceptibility genes including ESR1 (6q25.1: rs4869739, rs3020331, rs2982552), SPTBN1 (2p16.2: rs11898505), RSPO3 (6q22.33: rs7741021), WNT16 (7q31.31: rs2908007), DKK1 (10q21.1: rs7902708) and GPATCH1 (19q13.11: rs10416265), we identified a new locus on chromosome 11q14.2 (rs597319 close to TMEM135, a gene recently linked to osteoblastogenesis and longevity) significantly associated with both BUA and VOS (P < 8.23 × 10(-14)). In meta-analyses involving 25 cohorts with up to 14 985 fracture cases, six of 10 SNPs associated with heel bone properties at P < 5 × 10(-6) also had the expected direction of association with any fracture (P < 0.05), including three SNPs with P < 0.005: 6q22.33 (rs7741021), 7q31.31 (rs2908007) and 10q21.1 (rs7902708). In conclusion, this GWA study reveals the effect of several genes common to central DXA-derived BMD and heel ultrasound/DXA measures and points to a new genetic locus with potential implications for better understanding of osteoporosis pathophysiology

Personalising the decision for prolonged dual antiplatelet therapy:development, validation and potential impact of prognostic models for cardiovascular events and bleeding in myocardial infarction survivors

Aims: To develop models to aid the decision to prolong dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) requires balancing an individual patient’s potential benefits and harms. Methods and results: Using population-based electronic health records (CALIBER, England, 2000-2010), of patients evaluated 1 year after acute MI we developed (n=12,694 patients) and validated (n=5,613) prognostic models for cardiovascular (cardiovascular death, MI or stroke) and three different bleeding endpoints. We applied trial effect estimates to determine potential benefits and harms of DAPT and individuals net clinical benefit. Prognostic models for cardiovascular events (c-index: 0.75 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.77)) and bleeding (c index 0.72 (95% CI: 0.67, 0.77)) were well calibrated: 3-year risk of cardiovascular events was 16.5% overall (5.2% in lowest and 46.7% in highest-risk individuals) while for major bleeding it was 1.7% (0.3% in lowest and 5.4% in highest-risk patients). For every 10,000 patients treated per year, we estimated 249 (95% CI: 228, 269) cardiovascular events prevented and 134 (95% CI: 87,181) major bleeding events caused in highest-risk patients, and 28 (95% CI: 19, 37) cardiovascular events prevented and 9 (95% CI: 0, 20) major bleeding events caused in lowest-risk patients. There was a net clinical benefit of prolonged DAPT in 63% to 99% patients depending on how benefits and harms were weighted. Conclusions: Prognostic models for cardiovascular events and bleeding using population-based electronic health records may help personalise decisions for prolonged DAPT 1 year following acute MI

Improved imputation of low-frequency and rare variants using the UK10K haplotype reference panel

Imputing genotypes from reference panels created by whole-genome sequencing (WGS) provides a cost-effective strategy for augmenting the single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) content of genome-wide arrays. The UK10K Cohorts project has generated a data set of 3,781 whole genomes sequenced at low depth (average 7x), aiming to exhaustively characterize genetic variation down to 0.1% minor allele frequency in the British population. Here we demonstrate the value of this resource for improving imputation accuracy at rare and low-frequency variants in both a UK and an Italian population. We show that large increases in imputation accuracy can be achieved by re-phasing WGS reference panels after initial genotype calling. We also present a method for combining WGS panels to improve variant coverage and downstream imputation accuracy, which we illustrate by integrating 7,562 WGS haplotypes from the UK10K project with 2,184 haplotypes from the 1000 Genomes Project. Finally, we introduce a novel approximation that maintains speed without sacrificing imputation accuracy for rare variants

Trans-ancestry meta-analyses identify rare and common variants associated with blood pressure and hypertension

High blood pressure is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease and premature death. However, there is limited knowledge on specific causal genes and pathways. To better understand the genetics of blood pressure, we genotyped 242,296 rare, low-frequency and common genetic variants in up to ~192,000 individuals, and used ~155,063 samples for independent replication. We identified 31 novel blood pressure or hypertension associated genetic regions in the general population, including three rare missense variants in RBM47, COL21A1 and RRAS with larger effects (>1.5mmHg/allele) than common variants. Multiple rare, nonsense and missense variant associations were found in A2ML1 and a low-frequency nonsense variant in ENPEP was identified. Our data extend the spectrum of allelic variation underlying blood pressure traits and hypertension, provide new insights into the pathophysiology of hypertension and indicate new targets for clinical intervention