Uncertainties in tidally adjusted estimates of sea level rise flooding (bathtub model) for the Greater London

Sea-level rise (SLR) from global warming may have severe consequences for coastal cities, particularly when combined with predicted increases in the strength of tidal surges. Predicting the regional impact of SLR flooding is strongly dependent on the modelling approach and accuracy of topographic data. Here, the areas under risk of sea water flooding for London boroughs were quantified based on the projected SLR scenarios reported in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5) and UK climatic projections 2009 (UKCP09) using a tidally-adjusted bathtub modelling approach. Medium- to very high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) are used to evaluate inundation extents as well as uncertainties. Depending on the SLR scenario and DEMs used, it is estimated that 3%–8% of the area of Greater London could be inundated by 2100. The boroughs with the largest areas at risk of flooding are Newham, Southwark, and Greenwich. The differences in inundation areas estimated from a digital terrain model and a digital surface model are much greater than the root mean square error differences observed between the two data types, which may be attributed to processing levels. Flood models from SRTM data underestimate the inundation extent, so their results may not be reliable for constructing flood risk maps. This analysis provides a broad-scale estimate of the potential consequences of SLR and uncertainties in the DEM-based bathtub type flood inundation modelling for London boroughs

Solitonic conduction of electrotonic signals in neuronal branchlets with polarized microstructure

A model of solitonic conduction in neuronal branchlets with microstructure is presented. The application of cable theory to neurons with microstructure results in a nonlinear cable equation that is solved using a direct method to obtain analytical approximations of traveling wave solutions. It is shown that a linear superposition of two oppositely directed traveling waves demonstrate solitonic interaction: colliding waves can penetrate through each other, and continue fully intact as the exact pulses that entered the collision. These findings indicate that microstructure when polarized can sustain solitary waves that propagate at a constant velocity without attenuation or distortion in the absence of synaptic transmission. Solitonic conduction in a neuronal branchlet arising from polarizability of its microstructure is a novel signaling mode of electrotonic signals in thin processes (<0.5 μm diameter)

Electrical resistivity tomography revealing possible breaching mechanism of a Late Pleistocene long-lasted gigantic rockslide dam in Diexi, China

peer reviewedLandslide damming is a widespread phenomenon worldwide and significantly affects the evolution of fluvial landscapes. However, it is rarely witnessed from an antiquities perspective, and the case for observing their internal structure is challenging. We attempt to visualize the subsurface structure and understand the likely breaching mechanism of the late Pleistocene Diexi gigantic landslide dam (longevity of ~ 10 ka), using electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) method. Eight ERT measurements on the Diexi dam body revealed high resistivity zones near the periphery and lower resistivity zones in the middle portion of the profiles. Geomorphological mapping based on the LiDAR data determined the boundary of the landslide. Field investigation found that zones of low resistivity were connected to a ditched gully. Because breaching such an enormous lake with a total area of 21.4 km2 dammed by a gigantic landslide body with intact rocks was not likely by overtopping alone. The authors postulate that differential seepage of water from the gullies through the landslide debris could have accelerated the undercutting erosion of the otherwise stable Diexi dam. Utilizing geophysical techniques, along with field geomorphology works, can provide valuable information on the evolution of a gigantic paleo-landslide dam, which has real implications for the stability evaluation and forecast of future landslide dams

Association between footwear use and neglected tropical diseases: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND The control of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has primarily focused on preventive chemotherapy and case management. Less attention has been placed on the role of ensuring access to adequate water, sanitation, and hygiene and personal preventive measures in reducing exposure to infection. Our aim was to assess whether footwear use was associated with a lower risk of selected NTDs. METHODOLOGY We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the association between footwear use and infection or disease for those NTDs for which the route of transmission or occurrence may be through the feet. We included Buruli ulcer, cutaneous larva migrans (CLM), leptospirosis, mycetoma, myiasis, podoconiosis, snakebite, tungiasis, and soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections, particularly hookworm infection and strongyloidiasis. We searched Medline, Embase, Cochrane, Web of Science, CINAHL Plus, and Popline databases, contacted experts, and hand-searched reference lists for eligible studies. The search was conducted in English without language, publication status, or date restrictions up to January 2014. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they reported a measure of the association between footwear use and the risk of each NTD. Publication bias was assessed using funnel plots. Descriptive study characteristics and methodological quality of the included studies were summarized. For each study outcome, both outcome and exposure data were abstracted and crude and adjusted effect estimates presented. Individual and summary odds ratio (OR) estimates and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated as a measure of intervention effect, using random effects meta-analyses. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Among the 427 studies screened, 53 met our inclusion criteria. Footwear use was significantly associated with a lower odds of infection of Buruli ulcer (OR=0.15; 95% CI: 0.08-0.29), CLM (OR=0.24; 95% CI: 0.06-0.96), tungiasis (OR=0.42; 95% CI: 0.26-0.70), hookworm infection (OR=0.48; 95% CI: 0.37-0.61), any STH infection (OR=0.57; 95% CI: 0.39-0.84), strongyloidiasis (OR=0.56; 95% CI: 0.38-0.83), and leptospirosis (OR=0.59; 95% CI: 0.37-0.94). No significant association between footwear use and podoconiosis (OR=0.63; 95% CI: 0.38-1.05) was found and no data were available for mycetoma, myiasis, and snakebite. The main limitations were evidence of heterogeneity and poor study quality inherent to the observational studies included. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Our results show that footwear use was associated with a lower odds of several different NTDs. Access to footwear should be prioritized alongside existing NTD interventions to ensure a lasting reduction of multiple NTDs and to accelerate their control and elimination. PROTOCOL REGISTRATION PROSPERO International prospective register of systematic reviews CRD42012003338

Spatial clustering in the spatio-temporal dynamics of endemic cholera

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The spatio-temporal patterns of infectious diseases that are environmentally driven reflect the combined effects of transmission dynamics and environmental heterogeneity. They contain important information on different routes of transmission, including the role of environmental reservoirs. Consideration of the spatial component in infectious disease dynamics has led to insights on the propagation of fronts at the level of counties in rabies in the US, and the metapopulation behavior at the level of cities in childhood diseases such as measles in the UK, both at relatively coarse scales. As epidemiological data on individual infections become available, spatio-temporal patterns can be examined at higher resolutions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The extensive spatio-temporal data set for cholera in Matlab, Bangladesh, maps the individual location of cases from 1983 to 2003. This unique record allows us to examine the spatial structure of cholera outbreaks, to address the role of primary transmission, occurring from an aquatic reservoir to the human host, and that of secondary transmission, involving a feedback between current and past levels of infection. We use Ripley's K and L indices and bootstrapping methods to evaluate the occurrence of spatial clustering in the cases during outbreaks using different temporal windows. The spatial location of cases was also confronted against the spatial location of water sources.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Spatial clustering of cholera cases was detected at different temporal and spatial scales. Cases relative to water sources also exhibit spatial clustering.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The clustering of cases supports an important role of secondary transmission in the dynamics of cholera epidemics in Matlab, Bangladesh. The spatial clustering of cases relative to water sources, and its timing, suggests an effective role of water reservoirs during the onset of cholera outbreaks. Once primary transmission has initiated an outbreak, secondary transmission takes over and plays a fundamental role in shaping the epidemics in this endemic area.</p

Increased risk of type I errors in cluster randomised trials with small or medium numbers of clusters: a review, reanalysis,and simulation study

Background: Cluster randomised trials (CRTs) are commonly analysed using mixed-effects models or generalised estimating equations (GEEs). However, these analyses do not always perform well with the small number of clusters typical of most CRTs. They can lead to increased risk of a type I error (finding a statistically significant treatment effect when it does not exist) if appropriate corrections are not used. Methods: We conducted a small simulation study to evaluate the impact of using small-sample corrections for mixed-effects models or GEEs in CRTs with a small number of clusters. We then reanalysed data from TRIGGER, a CRT with six clusters, to determine the effect of using an inappropriate analysis method in practice. Finally, we reviewed 100 CRTs previously identified by a search on PubMed in order to assess whether trials were using appropriate methods of analysis. Trials were classified as at risk of an increased type I error rate if they did not report using an analysis method which accounted for clustering, or if they had fewer than 40 clusters and performed an individual-level analysis without reporting the use of an appropriate small-sample correction. Results: Our simulation study found that using mixed-effects models or GEEs without an appropriate correction led to inflated type I error rates, even for as many as 70 clusters. Conversely, using small-sample corrections provided correct type I error rates across all scenarios. Reanalysis of the TRIGGER trial found that inappropriate methods of analysis gave much smaller P values (P ≤ 0.01) than appropriate methods (P = 0.04–0.15). In our review, of the 99 trials that reported the number of clusters, 64 (65 %) were at risk of an increased type I error rate; 14 trials did not report using an analysis method which accounted for clustering, and 50 trials with fewer than 40 clusters performed an individual-level analysis without reporting the use of an appropriate correction. Conclusions: CRTs with a small or medium number of clusters are at risk of an inflated type I error rate unless appropriate analysis methods are used. Investigators should consider using small-sample corrections with mixed-effects models or GEEs to ensure valid results. Abbreviations: CRT, Cluster randomised trial; CI, Confidence interval; GEE, Generalised estimating equations; TRIGGER, Trial in Gastrointestinal Transfusio

Protection from annual flooding is correlated with increased cholera prevalence in Bangladesh: a zero-inflated regression analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Alteration of natural or historical aquatic flows can have unintended consequences for regions where waterborne diseases are endemic and where the epidemiologic implications of such change are poorly understood. The implementation of flood protection measures for a portion of an intensely monitored population in Matlab, Bangladesh, allows us to examine whether cholera outcomes respond positively or negatively to measures designed to control river flooding.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using a zero inflated negative binomial model, we examine how selected covariates can simultaneously account for household clusters reporting no cholera from those with positive counts as well as distinguishing residential areas with low counts from areas with high cholera counts. Our goal is to examine how residence within or outside a flood protected area interacts with the probability of cholera presence and the effect of flood protection on the magnitude of cholera prevalence.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In Matlab, living in a household that is protected from annual monsoon flooding appears to have no significant effect on whether the household experiences cholera, net of other covariates. However, counter-intuitively, among households where cholera is reported, living within the flood protected region significantly increases the number of cholera cases.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The construction of dams or other water impoundment strategies for economic or social motives can have profound and unanticipated consequences for waterborne disease. Our results indicate that the construction of a flood control structure in rural Bangladesh is correlated with an increase in cholera cases for residents protected from annual monsoon flooding. Such a finding requires attention from both the health community and from governments and non-governmental organizations involved in ongoing water management schemes.</p

Assessing the carcinogenic potential of low-dose exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment: the challenge ahead.

Lifestyle factors are responsible for a considerable portion of cancer incidence worldwide, but credible estimates from the World Health Organization and the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) suggest that the fraction of cancers attributable to toxic environmental exposures is between 7% and 19%. To explore the hypothesis that low-dose exposures to mixtures of chemicals in the environment may be combining to contribute to environmental carcinogenesis, we reviewed 11 hallmark phenotypes of cancer, multiple priority target sites for disruption in each area and prototypical chemical disruptors for all targets, this included dose-response characterizations, evidence of low-dose effects and cross-hallmark effects for all targets and chemicals. In total, 85 examples of chemicals were reviewed for actions on key pathways/mechanisms related to carcinogenesis. Only 15% (13/85) were found to have evidence of a dose-response threshold, whereas 59% (50/85) exerted low-dose effects. No dose-response information was found for the remaining 26% (22/85). Our analysis suggests that the cumulative effects of individual (non-carcinogenic) chemicals acting on different pathways, and a variety of related systems, organs, tissues and cells could plausibly conspire to produce carcinogenic synergies. Additional basic research on carcinogenesis and research focused on low-dose effects of chemical mixtures needs to be rigorously pursued before the merits of this hypothesis can be further advanced. However, the structure of the World Health Organization International Programme on Chemical Safety 'Mode of Action' framework should be revisited as it has inherent weaknesses that are not fully aligned with our current understanding of cancer biology

Care seeking for fatal illness episodes in Neonates: a population-based study in rural Bangladesh

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Poor neonatal health is a major contributor to under-five mortality in developing countries. A major constraint to effective neonatal survival programme has been the lack of population level data in developing countries. This study investigated the consultation patterns of caregivers during neonatal fatal illness episodes in the rural Matlab sub-district of eastern Bangladesh.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Neonatal deaths were identified through a population-based demographic surveillance system in Matlab ICDDR,B maternal and child health (MCH) project area and an adjoining government service area. Trained project staff administered a structured questionnaire on care seeking to mothers at home who had experienced a neonatal death. Univariate, bivariate and binary multivariate logistic regressions were performed to describe care seeking during the fatal illness episode.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 365 deaths recorded during 2003 and 2004, 84% died in the early (0-7 days) neonatal period, with the remaining deaths occurring over the subsequent 8 to 28 days. The first resort of care by parents was a qualified doctor or paramedic in 37% of cases, followed by traditional and unqualified health care providers in 25%, while 38% sought no care. Thus, almost two thirds (63%) of neonates who died received only traditional and unqualified care or no care at all during their final illness episode. About 22% sought care from more than one provider, including 6% from 3 or more providers. Such plurality in care seeking was more likely among male infants, in the late neonatal period, and in the MCH project area.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The high proportion of neonatal deaths that had received traditional care or no medical care in a rural area of Bangladesh highlights the need to develop community awareness about prompt medical care seeking for neonatal illnesses and to improve access to effective health care. Integration of traditional care providers into mainstream health programs should also be considered.</p