The Regional Economic Effects of Immigration

The effects of immigration on the host country are pervasive and long-term. It is not surprising that they have been extensively analysed, not least the economic effects which have been the subject of both theoretical and empirical research. While some of the empirical research has had a regional dimension, this has often been incidental to the analysis of the labour market – the effects of immigration on wages and employment prospects of the native-born depend on the regional migration response. In contrast, there has been little analysis of the general effects of immigration on regional economies per se. This paper contributes to the filling of this gap by constructing a small two-region computable general-equilibrium (CGE) model which is used to analyse the effects of various immigration shocks on regional variables such as output, employment, the labour force, unemployment, wages and welfare. We simulate the effects of different types of immigration shocks and distinguish between short-run and long-run effects. We also consider the effectiveness of government intervention designed to alleviate the adverse regional effects of immigration including the possibility that regional governments behave in a welfare-maximising way.immigration, regional, labour market

An Analysis of the Effects of Fiscal Equalisation in a Two-Region Simulation Model

This paper is concerned primarily with the economic and welfare consequences of federal redistributive grants. We use a model which has two regions, each with households, firms and regional governments as well as a federal government. The households, firms and regional governments are all optimizers – households maximize utility, firms maximize profits and we assume that regional governments are empire-builders in that they choose their expenditure and tax levels so as to maximise total expenditure – the size of their empire. Labour is free to move between regions in response to utility differences and does so until such differences have been eliminated. Inter-regional migration, interregional trade flows and federal government redistribution are the main sources of interconnectedness between the two regions. The model is linearised in log-differences and simulated using a calibration based on Australian state-level data. We find that the welfare effect of intergovernmental transfers is trivial but that all other variables of interest change substantially – consumption, employment, prices, taxes, wages, output and government expenditure. Finally, the signs of the effects of a federal transfer are not affected by the empire-building behaviour of regional governments although the magnitude of the effects is generally dampened.

Competitive Federalism: A Political-Economy General Equilibrium Approach

This paper develops a modelling framework within which questions of fiscal federalism can be handled. Regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) models form one good approach for examining such questions. However, conventional regional CGE models contain little, if any, theory relating to optimal economic decision-making by governments. In this paper we overcome this limitation by analysing a simple two-region GE model to which maximising behaviour by regional governments is added. We call this a regional political-economy general equilibrium (PEGE) model. We begin by considering a model with only regional governments. We then introduce a rudimentary federal government and consider two cases; in the first the federal government carries out a lump-sum transfer of resources from one regional government to another and in the second it imposes lump-sum income taxes on households and uses this revenue to make transfers to regional governments. We compare the implications of the PEGE model with and without the federal government transfers and conclude that optimising regional governments change their own tax rates to offset the effects on their citizens of the federal government action.

The Effects of Federal Inter-Regional Transfers with Optimizing Regional Governments

This paper analyses a simple inter-governmental transfer within a two-regional federal model with optimising regional governments and an exogenous federal government. Regions are linked by inter-regional migration of labour and households migrate from one region to the other in response to inter-regional differences in utility. Regional governments determined their tax and expenditure settings in order to maximise the welfare of the region's representative household. The federal government exists solely to transfer resources from one region to another. The model is solved numerically, after linearlisation and calibration using data for the Australian states. We find that the federal government transfers have only trivial effects on welfare, ie that the welfare effects of the transfer are undone by the migration response of households and the tax and expenditure changes of regional governments. Most of the 'undoing' comes from inter-regional migration.

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

The Effects of Federal Inter-Regional Transfers with Optimizing Regional Governments

Both conventional computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and game-theoretic models have been widely used in examining federal systems. There has been little attempt, however, at linking such models. In this paper we seek to combine the two approaches. We model the effects of a change in a federal government's inter-regional transfers within the context of a CGE model of a federal system in which regional governments act to maximise the welfare of the residents of their region. The model is a small two-region one. Simulations are conducted with six versions of the model, each calibrated for a particular Australian state and the rest of the nation. We show that a change in the level of transfers has little influence on per-capita private consumption, government consumption and welfare, and that its main effect is to induce migration from the donor region to the recipient region

Validation of the swimming competence questionnaire for children

Two studies were employed to test the reliability and validity of the Swimming Competence Questionnaire (SCQ) among primary school children. Study 1 was a cross-sectional survey in 4959 primary school children. Study 2 was a pre-post-test quasi-experiment among 1609 primary school children who underwent a 20-lesson learn-to-swim programme. In Study 1, exploratory structural equation modelling revealed excellent goodness-of-fit and scale reliability for a two-factor model comprising distance and skill factors, which supported the construct and convergent validity. SCQ scores were significantly and positively correlated with swimming outcomes (i.e., self-efficacy, intention, swimming frequency), which supported SCQ’s concurrent and criterion validity. Average variance extracted for the SCQ factors exceeded cut-off criteria supporting discriminant validity. In Study 2, pre-test SCQ scores correlated significantly and positively with the SCQ scores, self-efficacy, intention, and swimming frequency at post-test, which supported SCQ’s test-retest reliability and predictive validity. Positive intraclass correlation between SCQ scores and coach ratings at post-test provided evidence for SCQ’s inter-rater reliability. SCQ scores significantly improved at post-test, which supported SCQ’s ecological validity. In conclusion, findings indicate that the SCQ is a valid and reliable measure to assess primary school children’s swimming competence, in terms of swimming distance and basic water survival skills.peerReviewe

The effects of fiscal equalisation in a model with endogenous regional governments: an analysis in a two-region numerical model

H77, R13, R59,