Faithful Explanations of Black-box NLP Models Using LLM-generated Counterfactuals

Causal explanations of the predictions of NLP systems are essential to ensure safety and establish trust. Yet, existing methods often fall short of explaining model predictions effectively or efficiently and are often model-specific. In this paper, we address model-agnostic explanations, proposing two approaches for counterfactual (CF) approximation. The first approach is CF generation, where a large language model (LLM) is prompted to change a specific text concept while keeping confounding concepts unchanged. While this approach is demonstrated to be very effective, applying LLM at inference-time is costly. We hence present a second approach based on matching, and propose a method that is guided by an LLM at training-time and learns a dedicated embedding space. This space is faithful to a given causal graph and effectively serves to identify matches that approximate CFs. After showing theoretically that approximating CFs is required in order to construct faithful explanations, we benchmark our approaches and explain several models, including LLMs with billions of parameters. Our empirical results demonstrate the excellent performance of CF generation models as model-agnostic explainers. Moreover, our matching approach, which requires far less test-time resources, also provides effective explanations, surpassing many baselines. We also find that Top-K techniques universally improve every tested method. Finally, we showcase the potential of LLMs in constructing new benchmarks for model explanation and subsequently validate our conclusions. Our work illuminates new pathways for efficient and accurate approaches to interpreting NLP systems

The Rapidly Flaring Afterglow of the Very Bright and Energetic GRB 070125

We report on multi-wavelength observations, ranging from the X-ray to radio wave bands, of the IPN-localized gamma-ray burst GRB 070125. Spectroscopic observations reveal the presence of absorption lines due to O I, Si II, and C IV, implying a likely redshift of z = 1.547. The well-sampled light curves, in particular from 0.5 to 4 days after the burst, suggest a jet break at 3.7 days, corresponding to a jet opening angle of ~7.0 degrees, and implying an intrinsic GRB energy in the 1 - 10,000 keV band of around E = (6.3 - 6.9)x 10^(51) erg (based on the fluences measured by the gamma-ray detectors of the IPN network). GRB 070125 is among the brightest afterglows observed to date. The spectral energy distribution implies a host extinction of Av < 0.9 mag. Two rebrightening episodes are observed, one with excellent time coverage, showing an increase in flux of 56% in ~8000 seconds. The evolution of the afterglow light curve is achromatic at all times. Late-time observations of the afterglow do not show evidence for emission from an underlying host galaxy or supernova. Any host galaxy would be subluminous, consistent with current GRB host-galaxy samples. Evidence for strong Mg II absorption features is not found, which is perhaps surprising in view of the relatively high redshift of this burst and the high likelihood for such features along GRB-selected lines of sight.Comment: 50 pages, 9 figures, 5 tables Accepted to the Astrophysical Journa

Follow-up of the Neutron Star Bearing Gravitational-wave Candidate Events S190425z and S190426c with MMT and SOAR

On 2019 April 25.346 and 26.640 UT the LIGO and Virgo gravitational wave (GW) observatories announced the detection of the first candidate events in Observing Run 3 that contain at least one neutron star. S190425z is a likely binary neutron star (BNS) merger at $d_L = 156 \pm 41$ Mpc, while S190426c is possibly the first NS-BH merger ever detected, at $d_L = 377 \pm 100$ Mpc, although with marginal statistical significance. Here we report our optical follow-up observations for both events using the MMT 6.5-m telescope, as well as our spectroscopic follow-up of candidate counterparts (which turned out to be unrelated) with the 4.1-m SOAR telescope. We compare to publicly reported searches, explore the overall areal coverage and depth, and evaluate those in relation to the optical/NIR kilonova emission from the BNS merger GW170817, to theoretical kilonova models, and to short GRB afterglows. We find that for a GW170817-like kilonova, the partial volume covered spans up to about 40% for S190425z and 60% for S190426c. For an on-axis jet typical of short GRBs, the search effective volume is larger, but such a configuration is expected in at most a few percent of mergers. We further find that wide-field $\gamma$-ray and X-ray limits rule out luminous on-axis SGRBs, for a large fraction of the localization regions, although these searches are not sufficiently deep in the context of the $\gamma$-ray emission from GW170817 or off-axis SGRB afterglows. The results indicate that some optical follow-up searches are sufficiently deep for counterpart identification to about 300 Mpc, but that localizations better than 1000 deg$^2$ are likely essential.Comment: The first six authors contributed equally to this wor

Spectroscopic Target Selection for the Sloan Digital Sky Survey: The Luminous Red Galaxy Sample

We describe the target selection and resulting properties of a spectroscopic sample of luminous, red galaxies (LRG) from the imaging data of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). These galaxies are selected on the basis of color and magnitude to yield a sample of luminous, intrinsically red galaxies that extends fainter and further than the main flux-limited portion of the SDSS galaxy spectroscopic sample. The sample is designed to impose a passively-evolving luminosity and rest-frame color cut to a redshift of 0.38. Additional, yet more luminous, red galaxies are included to a redshift of 0.5. Approximately 12 of these galaxies per square degree are targeted for spectroscopy, so the sample will number over 100,000 with the full survey. SDSS commissioning data indicate that the algorithm efficiently selects luminous (M_g=-21.4), red galaxies, that the spectroscopic success rate is very high, and that the resulting set of galaxies is approximately volume-limited out to z=0.38. When the SDSS is complete, the LRG spectroscopic sample will fill over 1h^-3 Gpc^3 with an approximately homogeneous population of galaxies and will therefore be well suited to studies of large-scale structure and clusters out to z=0.5.Comment: 30 pages, LaTeX. Accepted to the Astronomical Journa

A Mildly Relativistic Outflow from the Energetic, Fast-rising Blue Optical Transient CSS161010 in a Dwarf Galaxy

We present X-ray and radio observations of the Fast Blue Optical Transient CRTS-CSS161010 J045834-081803 (CSS161010 hereafter) at t = 69-531 days. CSS161010 shows luminous X-ray (L x ∼ 5 × 1039 erg s-1) and radio (L ν ∼ 1029 erg s-1 Hz-1) emission. The radio emission peaked at ∼100 days post-transient explosion and rapidly decayed. We interpret these observations in the context of synchrotron emission from an expanding blast wave. CSS161010 launched a mildly relativistic outflow with velocity Γβc ≥ 0.55c at ∼100 days. This is faster than the non-relativistic AT 2018cow (Γβc ∼ 0.1c) and closer to ZTF18abvkwla (Γβc ≥ 0.3c at 63 days). The inferred initial kinetic energy of CSS161010 (E k ⪆ 1051 erg) is comparable to that of long gamma-ray bursts, but the ejecta mass that is coupled to the mildly relativistic outflow is significantly larger (∼ 0.01-0.1 M⊙). This is consistent with the lack of observed γ-rays. The luminous X-rays were produced by a different emission component to the synchrotron radio emission. CSS161010 is located at ∼150 Mpc in a dwarf galaxy with stellar mass M * ∼ 107 M o&amp;dot; and specific star formation rate sSFR ∼ 0.3 Gyr-1. This mass is among the lowest inferred for host galaxies of explosive transients from massive stars. Our observations of CSS161010 are consistent with an engine-driven aspherical explosion from a rare evolutionary path of a H-rich stellar progenitor, but we cannot rule out a stellar tidal disruption event on a centrally located intermediate-mass black hole. Regardless of the physical mechanism, CSS161010 establishes the existence of a new class of rare (rate &lt; 0.4% of the local core-collapse supernova rate) H-rich transients that can launch mildly relativistic outflows.</p

GRB 130831a: Rise and demise of a magnetar at z = 0.5

Open Access.--14th Marcel Grossman Meeting On Recent Developments in Theoretical and Experimental General Relativity, Astrophysics and Relativistic Field Theories; University of Rome "La Sapienza"Rome; Italy; 12 July 2015 through 18 July 2015; Code 142474.-- http://www.icra.it/mg/mg14/Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are the brightest explosions in the universe, yet the properties of their energy sources are far from understood. Very important clues, however, can be deduced by studying the afterglows of these events. We present observations of GRB 130831A and its afterglow obtained with Swift, Chandra, and multiple ground-based observatories. This burst shows an uncommon drop in the X-ray light curve at about 100 ks after the trigger, with a decay slope of α 7. The standard Forward Shock (FS) model offers no explanation for such a behaviour. Instead, a model in which a newly born magnetar outflow powers the early X-ray emission is found to be viable. After the drop, the X-ray afterglow resumes its decay with a slope typical of FS emission. The optical emission, on the other hand, displays no clear break across the X-ray drop and its decay is consistent with that of the late X-rays. Using both the X-ray and optical data, we show that the FS model can explain the emission after 100 ks. We model our data to infer the kinetic energy of the ejecta and thus estimate the efficiency of a magnetar “central engine” of a GRB. Furthermore, we break down the energy budget of this GRB into prompt emission, late internal dissipation, kinetic energy of the relativistic ejecta, and compare it with the energy of the accompanying supernova, SN 2013fu. Copyright © 2018 by the Editors.All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Descent toward the icehouse: Eocene sea surface cooling inferred from GDGT distributions

The TEX86 proxy, based on the distribution of marine isoprenoidal glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether lipids (GDGTs), is increasingly used to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) during the Eocene epoch (56.0–33.9 Ma). Here we compile published TEX86 records, critically reevaluate them in light of new understandings in TEX86 palaeothermometry, and supplement them with new data in order to evaluate long-term temperature trends in the Eocene. We investigate the effect of archaea other than marine Thaumarchaeota upon TEX86 values using the branched-to-isoprenoid tetraether index (BIT), the abundance of GDGT-0 relative to crenarchaeol (%GDGT-0), and the Methane Index (MI). We also introduce a new ratio, % GDGTRS, which may help identify Red Sea-type GDGT distributions in the geological record. Using the offset between TEX86H and TEX86L(ΔH-L) and the ratio between GDGT-2 and GDGT-3 ([2]/[3]), we evaluate different TEX86 calibrations and present the first integrated SST compilation for the Eocene (55 to 34 Ma). Although the available data are still sparse some geographic trends can now be resolved. In the high latitudes (>55°), there was substantial cooling during the Eocene (~6°C). Our compiled record also indicates tropical cooling of ~2.5°C during the same interval. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations that span the Eocene, our results indicate that only a small percentage (~10%) of the reconstructed temperature change can be ascribed to ocean gateway reorganization or paleogeographic change. Collectively, this indicates that atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) was the likely driver of surface water cooling during the descent toward the icehouse

Asymmetries in core-collapse supernovae from maps of radioactive 44Ti in CassiopeiaA

Asymmetry is required by most numerical simulations of stellar core-collapse explosions, but the form it takes differs significantly among models. The spatial distribution of radioactive 44Ti, synthesized in an exploding star near the boundary between material falling back onto the collapsing core and that ejected into the surrounding medium1, directly probes the explosion asymmetries. Cassiopeia A is a young2, nearby3, core-collapse4 remnant from which 44Ti emission has previously been detected5, 6, 7, 8 but not imaged. Asymmetries in the explosion have been indirectly inferred from a high ratio of observed 44Ti emission to estimated 56Ni emission9, from optical light echoes10, and from jet-like features seen in the X-ray11 and optical12 ejecta. Here we report spatial maps and spectral properties of the 44Ti in Cassiopeia A. This may explain the unexpected lack of correlation between the 44Ti and iron X-ray emission, the latter being visible only in shock-heated material. The observed spatial distribution rules out symmetric explosions even with a high level of convective mixing, as well as highly asymmetric bipolar explosions resulting from a fast-rotating progenitor. Instead, these observations provide strong evidence for the development of low-mode convective instabilities in core-collapse supernovae

Mechanisms Establishing TLR4-Responsive Activation States of Inflammatory Response Genes

Precise control of the innate immune response is required for resistance to microbial infections and maintenance of normal tissue homeostasis. Because this response involves coordinate regulation of hundreds of genes, it provides a powerful biological system to elucidate the molecular strategies that underlie signal- and time-dependent transitions of gene expression. Comprehensive genome-wide analysis of the epigenetic and transcription status of the TLR4-induced transcriptional program in macrophages suggests that Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4)-dependent activation of nearly all immediate/early- (I/E) and late-response genes results from a sequential process in which signal-independent factors initially establish basal levels of gene expression that are then amplified by signal-dependent transcription factors. Promoters of I/E genes are distinguished from those of late genes by encoding a distinct set of signal-dependent transcription factor elements, including TATA boxes, which lead to preferential binding of TBP and basal enrichment for RNA polymerase II immediately downstream of transcriptional start sites. Global nuclear run-on (GRO) sequencing and total RNA sequencing further indicates that TLR4 signaling markedly increases the overall rates of both transcriptional initiation and the efficiency of transcriptional elongation of nearly all I/E genes, while RNA splicing is largely unaffected. Collectively, these findings reveal broadly utilized mechanisms underlying temporally distinct patterns of TLR4-dependent gene activation required for homeostasis and effective immune responses