A simple tool to predict admission at the time of triage

Aim To create and validate a simple clinical score to estimate the probability of admission at the time of triage. Methods This was a multicentre, retrospective, cross-sectional study of triage records for all unscheduled adult attendances in North Glasgow over 2 years. Clinical variables that had significant associations with admission on logistic regression were entered into a mixed-effects multiple logistic model. This provided weightings for the score, which was then simplified and tested on a separate validation group by receiving operator characteristic (ROC) analysis and goodness-of-fit tests. Results 215 231 presentations were used for model derivation and 107 615 for validation. Variables in the final model showing clinically and statistically significant associations with admission were: triage category, age, National Early Warning Score (NEWS), arrival by ambulance, referral source and admission within the last year. The resulting 6-variable score showed excellent admission/discharge discrimination (area under ROC curve 0.8774, 95% CI 0.8752 to 0.8796). Higher scores also predicted early returns for those who were discharged: the odds of subsequent admission within 28 days doubled for every 7-point increase (log odds=+0.0933 per point, p&#60;0.0001). Conclusions This simple, 6-variable score accurately estimates the probability of admission purely from triage information. Most patients could accurately be assigned to ‘admission likely’, ‘admission unlikely’, ‘admission very unlikely’ etc., by setting appropriate cut-offs. This could have uses in patient streaming, bed management and decision support. It also has the potential to control for demographics when comparing performance over time or between departments.</p

SODAS: Surveillance of Drugs of Abuse Study

Objective: Novel Psychoactive Substance (NPS) as a form of recreational drug use has become increasingly popular. There is a paucity of information with regards the prevalence and clinical sequalae of these drugs. The aim of this study was to detect NPS in patients presenting to the Emergency Department (ED) with suspected toxicological ingestion. Methods: The prospective study was performed in a large Emergency Department (ED) in the UK. During a three month period eighty patients were identified by clinicians as having potentially ingested a toxicological agent. Urine sample were analysed using liquid chromatography-high resolution mass spectrometry and basic clinical data was gathered. Results: 80 patients with a history of illicit or recreational drug consumption had urine screenings performed. 49% (39) of patients undergoing a screen had more than one illicit substance detected. 20% (16) of patients tested positive for at least one NPS. Conclusions: Almost half of patients presenting had ingestion of multiple substances which correlated poorly with self reporting of patients. Developing enhanced strategies to monitor evolving drug trends is crucial to the ability of clinicians to deliver care to this challenging group of patients

A prospective evaluation of thiamine and magnesium status in relation to clinicopathological characteristics and 1-year mortality in patients with Alcohol Withdrawal Syndrome

Background: Alcohol withdrawal syndrome (AWS) is routinely treated with B-vitamins. However, the relationship between thiamine status and outcome is rarely examined. The aim of the present study was to examine the relationship between thiamine and magnesium status in patients with AWS. Methods: Patients (n = 127) presenting to the Emergency Department with AWS were recruited to a prospective observational study. Blood samples were drawn to measure whole blood thiamine diphosphate (TDP) and serum magnesium concentrations. Routine biochemistry and haematology assays were also conducted. The Glasgow Modified Alcohol Withdrawal Score (GMAWS) measured severity of AWS. Seizure history and current medications were also recorded. Results: The majority of patients (99%) had whole blood TDP concentration within/above the reference interval (275–675 ng/gHb) and had been prescribed thiamine (70%). In contrast, the majority of patients (60%) had low serum magnesium concentrations (&lt; 0.75 mmol/L) and had not been prescribed magnesium (93%). The majority of patients (66%) had plasma lactate concentrations above 2.0 mmol/L. At 1 year, 13 patients with AWS had died giving a mortality rate of 11%. Male gender (p &lt; 0.05), BMI &lt; 20 kg/m2 (p &lt; 0.01), GMAWS max ≥ 4 (p &lt; 0.05), elevated plasma lactate (p &lt; 0.01), low albumin (p &lt; 0.05) and elevated serum CRP (p &lt; 0.05) were associated with greater 1-year mortality. Also, low serum magnesium at time of recruitment to study and low serum magnesium at next admission were associated with higher 1-year mortality rates, (84% and 100% respectively; both p &lt; 0.05). Conclusion: The prevalence of low circulating thiamine concentrations were rare and it was regularly prescribed in patients with AWS. In contrast, low serum magnesium concentrations were common and not prescribed. Low serum magnesium was associated more severe AWS and increased 1-year mortality

Switching the stereochemical outcome of 6-endo-trig cyclizations; Synthesis of 2,6-Cis-6-substituted 4-oxopipecolic acids

A base-mediated 6-endo-trig cyclization of readily accessible enone-derived α-amino acids has been developed for the direct synthesis of novel 2,6-cis-6- substituted-4-oxo-L-pipecolic acids. A range of aliphatic and aryl side chains were tolerated by this mild procedure to give the target compounds in good overall yields. Molecular modeling of the 6-endo-trig cyclization allowed some insight as to how these compounds were formed, with the enolate intermediate generated via an equilibrium process, followed by irreversible tautomerization/neutralization providing the driving force for product formation. Stereoselective reduction and deprotection of the resulting 2,6-cis-6-substituted 4-oxo-L-pipecolic acids to the corresponding 4-hydroxy-L-pipecolic acids was also performed

Modelling the Spatio-Temporal Cell Dynamics Reveals Novel Insights on Cell Differentiation and Proliferation in the Small Intestinal Crypt

We developed a slow structural relaxation model to describe cellular dynamics in the crypt of the mouse small intestine. Cells are arranged in a three dimensional spiral the size of which dynamically changes according to cell production demands of adjacent villi. Cell differentiation and proliferation is regulated through Wnt and Notch signals, the strength of which depends on the local cell composition. The highest level of Wnt activity is associated with maintaining equipotent stem cells (SC), Paneth cells and common goblet-Paneth cell progenitors (CGPCPs) intermingling at the crypt bottom. Low levels of Wnt signalling area are associated with stem cells giving rise to secretory cells (CGPCPs, enteroendocrine or Tuft cells) and proliferative absorptive progenitors. Deciding between these two fates, secretory and stem/absorptive cells, depends on Notch signalling. Our model predicts that Notch signalling inhibits secretory fate if more than 50% of cells they are in contact with belong to the secretory lineage. CGPCPs under high Wnt signalling will differentiate into Paneth cells while those migrating out from the crypt bottom differentiate into goblet cells. We have assumed that mature Paneth cells migrating upwards undergo anoikis. Structural relaxation explains the localisation of Paneth cells to the crypt bottom in the absence of active forces. The predicted crypt generation time from one SC is 4–5 days with 10–12 days needed to reach a structural steady state. Our predictions are consistent with experimental observations made under altered Wnt and Notch signalling. Mutations affecting stem cells located at the crypt floor have a 50% chance of being propagated throughout the crypt while mutations in cells above are rarely propagated. The predicted recovery time of an injured crypt losing half of its cells is approximately 2 days

Effect of Hydrocortisone on Mortality and Organ Support in Patients With Severe COVID-19: The REMAP-CAP COVID-19 Corticosteroid Domain Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Evidence regarding corticosteroid use for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is limited. Objective: To determine whether hydrocortisone improves outcome for patients with severe COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: An ongoing adaptive platform trial testing multiple interventions within multiple therapeutic domains, for example, antiviral agents, corticosteroids, or immunoglobulin. Between March 9 and June 17, 2020, 614 adult patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 were enrolled and randomized within at least 1 domain following admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) for respiratory or cardiovascular organ support at 121 sites in 8 countries. Of these, 403 were randomized to open-label interventions within the corticosteroid domain. The domain was halted after results from another trial were released. Follow-up ended August 12, 2020. Interventions: The corticosteroid domain randomized participants to a fixed 7-day course of intravenous hydrocortisone (50 mg or 100 mg every 6 hours) (n = 143), a shock-dependent course (50 mg every 6 hours when shock was clinically evident) (n = 152), or no hydrocortisone (n = 108). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was organ support-free days (days alive and free of ICU-based respiratory or cardiovascular support) within 21 days, where patients who died were assigned -1 day. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model that included all patients enrolled with severe COVID-19, adjusting for age, sex, site, region, time, assignment to interventions within other domains, and domain and intervention eligibility. Superiority was defined as the posterior probability of an odds ratio greater than 1 (threshold for trial conclusion of superiority >99%). Results: After excluding 19 participants who withdrew consent, there were 384 patients (mean age, 60 years; 29% female) randomized to the fixed-dose (n = 137), shock-dependent (n = 146), and no (n = 101) hydrocortisone groups; 379 (99%) completed the study and were included in the analysis. The mean age for the 3 groups ranged between 59.5 and 60.4 years; most patients were male (range, 70.6%-71.5%); mean body mass index ranged between 29.7 and 30.9; and patients receiving mechanical ventilation ranged between 50.0% and 63.5%. For the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively, the median organ support-free days were 0 (IQR, -1 to 15), 0 (IQR, -1 to 13), and 0 (-1 to 11) days (composed of 30%, 26%, and 33% mortality rates and 11.5, 9.5, and 6 median organ support-free days among survivors). The median adjusted odds ratio and bayesian probability of superiority were 1.43 (95% credible interval, 0.91-2.27) and 93% for fixed-dose hydrocortisone, respectively, and were 1.22 (95% credible interval, 0.76-1.94) and 80% for shock-dependent hydrocortisone compared with no hydrocortisone. Serious adverse events were reported in 4 (3%), 5 (3%), and 1 (1%) patients in the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with severe COVID-19, treatment with a 7-day fixed-dose course of hydrocortisone or shock-dependent dosing of hydrocortisone, compared with no hydrocortisone, resulted in 93% and 80% probabilities of superiority with regard to the odds of improvement in organ support-free days within 21 days. However, the trial was stopped early and no treatment strategy met prespecified criteria for statistical superiority, precluding definitive conclusions. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02735707

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

Exploring situational awareness in emergency medicine:Developing a shared mental model to enhance training and assessment

Non-technical skills (NTS) are gaining increasing prominence within the field of emergency medicine. Situational awareness (SA), one key component of NTS, is a key skill for emergency physicians (EPs) during initial training and throughout their career. Furthermore, the majority of frameworks used to evaluate clinical performance incorporate SA as one key component. This review seeks to define and explore the concept of SA within the context of emergency medicine. We describe SA at an individual, team and departmental level. Development of this ability enables EPs to function effectively within the challenging environment of the emergency department (ED). Enhancing our understanding of SA may develop the cognitive process that underpins our clinical performance. We propose a model for consideration to support evaluation and training of SA within the ED, linking the model to the novice expert continuum

Top 10 lessons from the Glasgow major incidents

No abstract available