Projection of Diabetes Population Size and Associated Economic Burden through 2030 in Iran : Evidence from Micro-Simulation Markov Model and Bayesian Meta-Analysis

Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank kindly all advisors and colleagues, for their valuable technical support. We would like to thank you Ms Laura Marie Dysart for editing the paper.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Performance Measurement System in the Shipping Industry

Since the objective of this thesis is to determine the performance measurement system in companies active in Iranian shipping industry we define what we mean by the performance measurement system. Neely (2005) defines PMS as the set of metrics used to quantify both the efficiency and effectiveness of actions. So the title of this thesis will be ``Performance Measurement System in shipping industry``. Regarding the companies we have selected to analyze, they first of all differ in their size, so our analysis much more were focused on the size but during our work there were other factors that revealed and influenced the difference of performance measurement system and management control in three companies. One of the other and most important factors was culture, considering Iranian culture more as individualistic and high power distance what means that control by the superiors is expanded to their subordinates. Another important factor was also external environment and the impact that competition and also government has especially over the largest company NITC and competition that have more effect over the medium and small one like Alpha and Beta Companies. In this context the most important thing is the performance indicators that three companies have employed, these performance indicators are financial, non- financial and operational measures or indicators that also have an impact in the nature of their business as it is shipping industry

Do healthier foods and diet patterns cost more than less healthy options? A systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective: To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of prices of healthier versus less healthy foods/diet patterns while accounting for key sources of heterogeneity. Data sources MEDLINE (2000–2011), supplemented with expert consultations and hand reviews of reference lists and related citations. Design: Studies reviewed independently and in duplicate were included if reporting mean retail price of foods or diet patterns stratified by healthfulness. We extracted, in duplicate, mean prices and their uncertainties of healthier and less healthy foods/diet patterns and rated the intensity of health differences for each comparison (range 1–10). Prices were adjusted for inflation and the World Bank purchasing power parity, and standardised to the international dollar (defined as US$1) in 2011. Using random effects models, we quantified price differences of healthier versus less healthy options for specific food types, diet patterns and units of price (serving, day and calorie). Statistical heterogeneity was quantified using I2 statistics. Results: 27 studies from 10 countries met the inclusion criteria. Among food groups, meats/protein had largest price differences: healthier options cost$0.29/serving (95% CI $0.19 to$0.40) and $0.47/200 kcal ($0.42 to $0.53) more than less healthy options. Price differences per serving for healthier versus less healthy foods were smaller among grains ($0.03), dairy (−$0.004), snacks/sweets ($0.12) and fats/oils ($0.02; p<0.05 each) and not significant for soda/juice ($0.11, p=0.64). Comparing extremes (top vs bottom quantile) of food-based diet patterns, healthier diets cost $1.48/day ($1.01 to $1.95) and$1.54/2000 kcal ($1.15 to$1.94) more. Comparing nutrient-based patterns, price per day was not significantly different (top vs bottom quantile: $0.04; p=0.916), whereas price per 2000 kcal was$1.56 ($0.61 to$2.51) more. Adjustment for intensity of differences in healthfulness yielded similar results. Conclusions: This meta-analysis provides the best evidence until today of price differences of healthier vs less healthy foods/diet patterns, highlighting the challenges and opportunities for reducing financial barriers to healthy eating

Usporedba dijagnostičke točnosti izravnog ispitivanja i shematske procjene lokalizacije kronične boli

None of the previous studies localized pain in comparison with graphic scheme. Our aim was to investigate the validity of direct questioning about the main pain localization in comparison with schematic evaluation. In this cross-sectional study, 331 patients, mean age 49.4±10.72 years, localized their main pain site anatomically with manikin and by direct questioning. Two methods were employed to localize pain: direct questioning and schematic evaluation (manikin). Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR) and odds ratio (OR) were used to compare these two methods. Study patients answered in both methods. The sensitivity and PPV were mostly in a weak range, while accuracy, specificity and NPV were mostly in good range. Kappa index was in the marginal reproducibility range. Pain in the left part of the body had a higher OR (OR=9). PLR for pain in the right part of the body was 28.03. NLR for all questions was located in the small and rarely important change probability group. Negative answer in direct questioning was more reliable than a positive one. Pain localization in the left side of the body was more reliable.Dosad nisu objavljene studije u kojima bi se lokalizacija boli uspoređivala s grafičkim prikazom. Cilj našega istraživanja bio je ispitati vrijednost izravnog ispitivanja o glavnom bolnom dijelu tijela u usporedbi s procjenom na shematskom prikazu. Ova križna studija uključila je 331 bolesnika srednje dobi 49,4±10,72 godina; bolesnici su pokazali glavno bolno mjesto na shematskom antomskom modelu ljudskog tijela i opisali ga izravnim ispitivanjem. Dakle, dvije metode su primi-jenjene za lokaliziranje boli: izravno ispitivanje i shematski anatomski model ljudskog tijela. Osjetljivost, specifičnost, točnost, pozitivna prediktivna vrijednost (PPV), negativna prediktivna vrijednost (NPV), pozitivni omjer vjerojatnosti (PLR), negativni omjer vjerojatnosti (NLR) i omjer izgleda (OR) primijenjeni su u usporedbi dviju metoda. Bolesnici su svoje odgovore dali pomoću obiju metoda. Osjetljivost i PPV uglavnom su bili u nižem rasponu, dok su točnost, specifičnost i NPV bili u dobrom rasponu. Indeks kappa bio je u graničnom rasponu reproducibilnosti. Bol u lijevom dijelu tijela pokazala je viši OR (OR=9). PLR za bol u desnom dijelu tijela bio je 28,03. NLR za sva pitanja bio je u skupini manje i rijetko važne promjene vjerojatnosti. Negativni odgovor kod izravnog ispitivanja bio je pouzdaniji od pozitivnog odgovora. Lokalizacija boli na lijevoj strani tijela bila je pouzdanija

Health in times of uncertainty in the eastern Mediterranean region, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The eastern Mediterranean region is comprised of 22 countries: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. Since our Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010), the region has faced unrest as a result of revolutions, wars, and the so-called Arab uprisings. The objective of this study was to present the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors in the eastern Mediterranean region as of 2013. Methods GBD 2013 includes an annual assessment covering 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. The study covers 306 diseases and injuries, 1233 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. Our GBD 2013 analyses included the addition of new data through updated systematic reviews and through the contribution of unpublished data sources from collaborators, an updated version of modelling software, and several improvements in our methods. In this systematic analysis, we use data from GBD 2013 to analyse the burden of disease and injuries in the eastern Mediterranean region specifi cally. Findings The leading cause of death in the region in 2013 was ischaemic heart disease (90·3 deaths per 100 000 people), which increased by 17·2% since 1990. However, diarrhoeal diseases were the leading cause of death in Somalia (186·7 deaths per 100 000 people) in 2013, which decreased by 26·9% since 1990. The leading cause of disabilityadjusted life-years (DALYs) was ischaemic heart disease for males and lower respiratory infection for females. High blood pressure was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 2013, with an increase of 83·3% since 1990. Risk factors for DALYs varied by country. In low-income countries, childhood wasting was the leading cause of DALYs in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen, whereas unsafe sex was the leading cause in Djibouti. Non-communicable risk factors were the leading cause of DALYs in high-income and middle-income countries in the region. DALY risk factors varied by age, with child and maternal malnutrition aff ecting the younger age groups (aged 28 days to 4 years), whereas high bodyweight and systolic blood pressure aff ected older people (aged 60–80 years). The proportion of DALYs attributed to high body-mass index increased from 3·7% to 7·5% between 1990 and 2013. Burden of mental health problems and drug use increased. Most increases in DALYs, especially from non-communicable diseases, were due to population growth. The crises in Egypt, Yemen, Libya, and Syria have resulted in a reduction in life expectancy; life expectancy in Syria would have been 5 years higher than that recorded for females and 6 years higher for males had the crisis not occurred. Interpretation Our study shows that the eastern Mediterranean region is going through a crucial health phase. The Arab uprisings and the wars that followed, coupled with ageing and population growth, will have a major impact on the region’s health and resources. The region has historically seen improvements in life expectancy and other health indicators, even under stress. However, the current situation will cause deteriorating health conditions for many countries and for many years and will have an impact on the region and the rest of the world. Based on our fi ndings, we call for increased investment in health in the region in addition to reducing the confl icts

Physical Activity and Risk of Breast Cancer, Colon Cancer, Diabetes, Ischemic Heart Disease, and Ischemic Stroke Events: Systematic Review and Dose-Response Meta-Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Objective: To quantify the dose-response associations between total physical activity and risk of breast cancer, colon cancer, diabetes, ischemic heart disease, and ischemic stroke events

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defi ned criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted causespecifi c DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings: Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient defi ciencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading fi ve risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation: Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden.publishedVersio

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health plannin

Consumption of ultra-processed foods and obesity in Brazilian adolescents and adults.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between the consumption of ultra-processed foods and obesity indicators among Brazilian adults and adolescents. METHODS: We used cross-sectional data on 30,243 individuals aged ≥10 years from the 2008-2009 Brazilian Dietary Survey. Food consumption data were collected through 24-h food records. We classified food items according to characteristics of food processing. Ultra-processed foods were defined as formulations made by the food industry mostly from substances extracted from foods or obtained with the further processing of constituents of foods or through chemical synthesis, with little if any whole food. Examples included candies, cookies, sugar-sweetened beverages, and ready-to-eat dishes. Regression models were fitted to evaluate the association of the consumption of ultra-processed foods (% of energy intake) with body-mass-index, excess weight, and obesity status, controlling for socio-demographic characteristics, smoking, and physical activity. RESULTS: Ultra-processed foods represented 30% of the total energy intake. Those in the highest quintile of consumption of ultra-processed foods had significantly higher body-mass-index (0.94 kg/m(2); 95% CI: 0.42,1.47) and higher odds of being obese (OR=1.98; 95% CI: 1.26,3.12) and excess weight (OR=1.26; 95% CI: 0.95,1.69) compared with those in the lowest quintile of consumption. CONCLUSION: Our findings support the role of ultra-processed foods in the obesity epidemic in Brazil.M.L.C. Louzada was funded by the São Paulo Research Foundation (2013/08260-1). J-C. Moubarac was funded by the São Paulo Research Foundation (2011/08425-5). F. Imamura was supported by Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit Core Support (MC_UU_12015/5).This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ypmed.2015.07.01

The burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to high BMI in Brazil, 1990– 2017 : findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study

Background: The prevalence and burden of disease resulting from obesity have increased worldwide. In Brazil, more than half of the population is now overweight. However, the impact of this growing risk factor on disease burden remains inexact. Using the 2017 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) results, this study sought to estimate mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost to non-communicable diseases caused by high body mass index (BMI) in both sexes and across age categories. This study also aimed to describe the prevalence of overweight and obesity throughout the states of Brazil. Methods: Age-standardized prevalence of overweight and obesity were estimated between 1990 and 2017. A comparative risk assessment was applied to estimate DALYs and deaths for non-communicable diseases and for all causes linked to high BMI. Results: The prevalence of overweight and obesity increased during the period of analysis. Overall, agestandardized prevalence of obesity in Brazil was higher in females (29.8%) than in males (24.6%) in 2017; however, since 1990, males have presented greater rise in obesity (244.1%) than females (165.7%). Increases in prevalence burden were greatest in states from the North and Northeast regions of Brazil. Overall, burden due to high BMI also increased from 1990 to 2017. In 2017, high BMI was responsible for 12.3% (8.8–16.1%) of all deaths and 8.4% (6.3– 10.7%) of total DALYs lost to non-communicable diseases, up from 7.2% (4.1–10.8%), and 4.6% (2.4-6.0%) in 1990, respectively. Change due to risk exposure is the leading contributor to the growth of BMI burden in Brazil. In 2017, high BMI was responsible for 165,954 deaths and 5,095,125 DALYs. Cardiovascular disease and diabetes have proven to be the most prevalent causes of deaths, along with DALYs caused by high BMI, regardless of sex or state. Conclusions: This study demonstrates increasing age-standardized prevalence of obesity in all Brazilian states. High BMI plays an important role in disease burdens in terms of cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and all causes of mortality. Assessing levels and trends in exposures to high BMI and the resulting disease burden highlights the current priority for primary prevention and public health action initiatives focused on obesity