Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank kindly all advisors and colleagues, for their valuable technical support. We would like to thank you Ms Laura Marie Dysart for editing the paper.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Afshin, Ashkan

Baradaran, Hamid R

Haghdoost, AliAkbar

Javanbakht, Mehdi

Mashayekhi, Atefeh

PLoS ONE

English

PubMed

Mehdi Javanbakht

Atefeh Mashayekhi

Hamid R. Baradaran

AliAkbar Haghdoost

Ashkan Afshin

Crossref

Projection of Diabetes Population Size and Associated Economic Burden through 2030 in Iran: Evidence from Micro-Simulation Markov Model and Bayesian Meta-Analysis

<div>BackgroundThe aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) in Iran from 2009 to 2030.MethodsA Markov micro-simulation (MM) model was developed to predict the DM population size and associated economic burden. Age- and sex-specific prevalence and incidence of diagnosed and undiagnosed DM were derived from national health surveys. A systematic review was performed to identify the cost of diabetes in Iran and the mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM were estimated using a random-effect Bayesian meta-analysis. Face, internal, cross and predictive validity of the MM model were assessed by consulting an expert group, performing sensitivity analysis (SA) and comparing model results with published literature and national survey reports. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to explore the effect of uncertainty in the model.ResultsWe estimated 3.78 million cases of DM (2.74 million diagnosed and 1.04 million undiagnosed) in Iran in 2009. This number is expected to rise to 9.24 million cases (6.73 million diagnosed and 2.50 million undiagnosed) by 2030. The mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM in 2009 were US$ 556 (posterior standard deviation, 221) and US$ 689 (619), respectively. Total estimated annual cost of DM was $3.64 (2009 US$) billion (including US$1.71 billion direct and US$1.93 billion indirect costs) in 2009 and is predicted to increase to $9.0 (in 2009 US$) billion (including US$4.2 billion direct and US$4.8 billion indirect costs) by 2030.ConclusionsThe economic burden of DM in Iran is predicted to increase markedly in the coming decades. Identification and implementation of effective strategies to prevent and manage DM should be considered as a public health priority.</div

Mehdi Javanbakht (309545)

Atefeh Mashayekhi (309547)

Hamid R. Baradaran (309549)

AliAkbar Haghdoost (473648)

Ashkan Afshin (773961)

The Francis Crick Institute

BACKGROUND:

The aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) in Iran from 2009 to 2030.

METHODS:

A Markov micro-simulation (MM) model was developed to predict the DM population size and associated economic burden. Age- and sex-specific prevalence and incidence of diagnosed and undiagnosed DM were derived from national health surveys. A systematic review was performed to identify the cost of diabetes in Iran and the mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM were estimated using a random-effect Bayesian meta-analysis. Face, internal, cross and predictive validity of the MM model were assessed by consulting an expert group, performing sensitivity analysis (SA) and comparing model results with published literature and national survey reports. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to explore the effect of uncertainty in the model.

RESULTS:

We estimated 3.78 million cases of DM (2.74 million diagnosed and 1.04 million undiagnosed) in Iran in 2009. This number is expected to rise to 9.24 million cases (6.73 million diagnosed and 2.50 million undiagnosed) by 2030. The mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM in 2009 were US$ 556 (posterior standard deviation, 221) and US$ 689 (619), respectively. Total estimated annual cost of DM was $3.64 (2009 US$) billion (including US$1.71 billion direct and US$1.93 billion indirect costs) in 2009 and is predicted to increase to $9.0 (in 2009 US$) billion (including US$4.2 billion direct and US$4.8 billion indirect costs) by 2030.

CONCLUSIONS:

The economic burden of DM in Iran is predicted to increase markedly in the coming decades. Identification and implementation of effective strategies to prevent and manage DM should be considered as a public health priority

Mashayekhi, A

Baradaran, HR

Haghdoost, Ali-Akbar

Afshin, A

Simorgh Research Repository

PLoS One. 2015 Jul 22;10(7):e0132505. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0132505. eCollection 2015.Projection of Diabetes Population Size and Associated Economic Burden through 2030 in Iran: Evidence from Micro-Simulation Markov Model and Bayesian Meta-Analysis.Javanbakht M1, Mashayekhi A2, Baradaran HR2, Haghdoost A3, Afshin A4.Author informationAbstractBACKGROUND:The aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) in Iran from 2009 to 2030.METHODS:A Markov micro-simulation (MM) model was developed to predict the DM population size and associated economic burden. Age- and sex-specific prevalence and incidence of diagnosed and undiagnosed DM were derived from national health surveys. A systematic review was performed to identify the cost of diabetes in Iran and the mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM were estimated using a random-effect Bayesian meta-analysis. Face, internal, cross and predictive validity of the MM model were assessed by consulting an expert group, performing sensitivity analysis (SA) and comparing model results with published literature and national survey reports. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to explore the effect of uncertainty in the model.RESULTS:We estimated 3.78 million cases of DM (2.74 million diagnosed and 1.04 million undiagnosed) in Iran in 2009. This number is expected to rise to 9.24 million cases (6.73 million diagnosed and 2.50 million undiagnosed) by 2030. The mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM in 2009 were US$ 556 (posterior standard deviation, 221) and US$ 689 (619), respectively. Total estimated annual cost of DM was $3.64 (2009 US$) billion (including US$1.71 billion direct and US$1.93 billion indirect costs) in 2009 and is predicted to increase to $9.0 (in 2009 US$) billion (including US$4.2 billion direct and US$4.8 billion indirect costs) by 2030.CONCLUSIONS:The economic burden of DM in Iran is predicted to increase markedly in the coming decades. Identification and implementation of effective strategies to prevent and manage DM should be considered as a public health priority.PMID:26200913 [PubMed - in process] PMCID: PMC4511591 Free PMC Article

Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank kindly all advisors and colleagues, for their valuable technical support. We would like to thank you Ms Laura Marie Dysart for editing the paper.Peer reviewe

Aberdeen University Research

Projection of Diabetes Population Size and Associated Economic Burden through 2030 in Iran : Evidence from Micro-Simulation Markov Model and Bayesian Meta-Analysis

BackgroundThe aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) in Iran from 2009 to 2030.MethodsA Markov micro-simulation (MM) model was developed to predict the DM population size and associated economic burden. Age- and sex-specific prevalence and incidence of diagnosed and undiagnosed DM were derived from national health surveys. A systematic review was performed to identify the cost of diabetes in Iran and the mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM were estimated using a random-effect Bayesian meta-analysis. Face, internal, cross and predictive validity of the MM model were assessed by consulting an expert group, performing sensitivity analysis (SA) and comparing model results with published literature and national survey reports. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to explore the effect of uncertainty in the model.ResultsWe estimated 3.78 million cases of DM (2.74 million diagnosed and 1.04 million undiagnosed) in Iran in 2009. This number is expected to rise to 9.24 million cases (6.73 million diagnosed and 2.50 million undiagnosed) by 2030. The mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM in 2009 were US$ 556 (posterior standard deviation, 221) and US$ 689 (619), respectively. Total estimated annual cost of DM was $3.64 (2009 US$) billion (including US$1.71 billion direct and US$1.93 billion indirect costs) in 2009 and is predicted to increase to $9.0 (in 2009 US$) billion (including US$4.2 billion direct and US$4.8 billion indirect costs) by 2030.ConclusionsThe economic burden of DM in Iran is predicted to increase markedly in the coming decades. Identification and implementation of effective strategies to prevent and manage DM should be considered as a public health priority

Hamid R Baradaran

Directory of Open Access Journals

Projection of Diabetes Population Size and Associated Economic Burden through 2030 in Iran: Evidence from Micro-Simulation Markov Model and Bayesian Meta-Analysis.

Background: The aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) in Iran from 2009 to 2030. Methods: A Markov micro-simulation (MM) model was developed to predict the DM population size and associated economic burden. Age- And sex-specific prevalence and incidence of diagnosed and undiagnosed DM were derived from national health surveys. A systematic review was performed to identify the cost of diabetes in Iran and the mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM were estimated using a random-effect Bayesian metaanalysis. Face, internal, cross and predictive validity of the MM model were assessed by consulting an expert group, performing sensitivity analysis (SA) and comparing model results with published literature and national survey reports. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to explore the effect of uncertainty in the model. Results: We estimated 3.78 million cases of DM (2.74 million diagnosed and 1.04 million undiagnosed) in Iran in 2009. This number is expected to rise to 9.24 million cases (6.73 million diagnosed and 2.50 million undiagnosed) by 2030. The mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM in 2009 were US 556 (posterior standard deviation, 221) and US  689 (619), respectively. Total estimated annual cost of DM was 3.64 (2009 US) billion (including US1.71 billion direct and US1.93 billion indirect costs) in 2009 and is predicted to increase to 9.0 (in 2009 US) billion (including US4.2 billion direct and US4.8 billion indirect costs) by 2030. Conclusions: The economic burden of DM in Iran is predicted to increase markedly in the coming decades. Identification and implementation of effective strategies to prevent and manage DM should be considered as a public health priority. Â© 2015 Javanbakht et al

Javanbakht, M.

Mashayekhi, A.

Baradaran, H.R.

Haghdoost, A.A.

Afshin, A.

eprints Iran University of Medical Sciences

Projection of diabetes population size and associated economic burden through 2030 in Iran: Evidence from micro-simulation Markov model and Bayesian meta-analysis

https://aura.abdn.ac.uk/bitstream/2164/5081/1/journal.pone.0132505.pdf

Projection of Diabetes Population Size and Associated Economic Burden through 2030 in Iran : Evidence from Micro-Simulation Markov Model and Bayesian Meta-Analysis

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