Precision and scaling in morphogen gradient read-out

Morphogen gradients infer cell fate as a function of cellular position. Experiments in Drosophila embryos have shown that the Bicoid (Bcd) gradient is precise and exhibits some degree of scaling. We present experimental results on the precision of Bcd target genes for embryos with a single, double or quadruple dose of bicoid demonstrating that precision is highest at mid-embryo and position dependent, rather than gene dependent. This confirms that the major contribution to precision is achieved already at the Bcd gradient formation. Modeling this dynamic process, we investigate precision for inter-embryo fluctuations in different parameters affecting gradient formation. Within our modeling framework, the observed precision can only be achieved by a transient Bcd profile. Studying different extensions of our modeling framework reveals that scaling is generally position dependent and decreases toward the posterior pole. Our measurements confirm this trend, indicating almost perfect scaling except for anterior most expression domains, which overcompensate fluctuations in embryo length

On the criticality of inferred models

Advanced inference techniques allow one to reconstruct the pattern of interaction from high dimensional data sets. We focus here on the statistical properties of inferred models and argue that inference procedures are likely to yield models which are close to a phase transition. On one side, we show that the reparameterization invariant metrics in the space of probability distributions of these models (the Fisher Information) is directly related to the model's susceptibility. As a result, distinguishable models tend to accumulate close to critical points, where the susceptibility diverges in infinite systems. On the other, this region is the one where the estimate of inferred parameters is most stable. In order to illustrate these points, we discuss inference of interacting point processes with application to financial data and show that sensible choices of observation time-scales naturally yield models which are close to criticality.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures, version to appear in JSTA

Beyond inverse Ising model: structure of the analytical solution for a class of inverse problems

I consider the problem of deriving couplings of a statistical model from measured correlations, a task which generalizes the well-known inverse Ising problem. After reminding that such problem can be mapped on the one of expressing the entropy of a system as a function of its corresponding observables, I show the conditions under which this can be done without resorting to iterative algorithms. I find that inverse problems are local (the inverse Fisher information is sparse) whenever the corresponding models have a factorized form, and the entropy can be split in a sum of small cluster contributions. I illustrate these ideas through two examples (the Ising model on a tree and the one-dimensional periodic chain with arbitrary order interaction) and support the results with numerical simulations. The extension of these methods to more general scenarios is finally discussed.Comment: 15 pages, 6 figure

A simple mean field model for social interactions: dynamics, fluctuations, criticality

We study the dynamics of a spin-flip model with a mean field interaction. The system is non reversible, spacially inhomogeneous, and it is designed to model social interactions. We obtain the limiting behavior of the empirical averages in the limit of infinitely many interacting individuals, and show that phase transition occurs. Then, after having obtained the dynamics of normal fluctuations around this limit, we analize long time fluctuations for critical values of the parameters. We show that random inhomogeneities produce critical fluctuations at a shorter time scale compared to the homogeneous system.Comment: 37 pages, 2 figure

Why have asset price properties changed so little in 200 years

We first review empirical evidence that asset prices have had episodes of large fluctuations and been inefficient for at least 200 years. We briefly review recent theoretical results as well as the neurological basis of trend following and finally argue that these asset price properties can be attributed to two fundamental mechanisms that have not changed for many centuries: an innate preference for trend following and the collective tendency to exploit as much as possible detectable price arbitrage, which leads to destabilizing feedback loops.Comment: 16 pages, 4 figure

Dpp Signaling Activity Requires Pentagone to Scale with Tissue Size in the Growing Drosophila Wing Imaginal Disc

The activity of the Dpp morphogen adapts to tissue size in the growing Drosophila wing imaginal disc, and Pentagone, an important secreted feedback regulator of the Dpp pathway, is required for this adaptation

Using a community-based definition of poverty for targeting poor households for premium subsidies in the context of a community health insurance in Burkina Faso

Background: One of the biggest challenges in subsidizing premiums of poor households for community health insurance is the identification and selection of these households. Generally, poverty assessments in developing countries are based on monetary terms. The household is regarded as poor if its income or consumption is lower than a predefined poverty cut-off. These measures fail to recognize the multi-dimensional character of poverty, ignoring community members? perception and understanding of poverty, leaving them voiceless and powerless in the identification process. Realizing this, the steering committee of Nouna's health insurance devised a method to involve community members to better define `perceived? poverty, using this as a key element for the poor selection. The community-identified poor were then used to effectively target premium subsidies for the insurance scheme. Methods: The study was conducted in the Nouna's Health District located in northwest Burkina Faso. Participants in each village were selected to take part in focus-group discussions (FGD) organized in 41 villages and 7 sectors of Nouna's town to discuss criteria and perceptions of poverty. The discussions were audio recorded, transcribed and analyzed in French using the software NVivo 9. Results: From the FGD on poverty and the subjective definitions and perceptions of the community members, we found that poverty was mainly seen as scarcity of basic needs, vulnerability, deprivation of capacities, powerlessness, voicelessness, indecent living conditions, and absence of social capital and community networks for support in times of need. Criteria and poverty groups as described by community members can be used to identify poor who can then be targeted for subsidies. Conclusion: Policies targeting the poorest require the establishment of effective selection strategies. These policies are well-conditioned by proper identification of the poor people. Community perceptions and criteria of poverty are grounded in reality, to better appreciate the issue. It is crucial to take these perceptions into account in undertaking community development actions which target the poor. For most community-based health insurance schemes with limited financial resources, using a community-based definition of poverty in the targeting of the poorest might be a less costly alternative

Evidence-Based Management of Hand Eczema

Hand eczema is a common skin disease with a wide variation in morphology and a complex etiology based on endogenous and exogenous factors.The diagnosis of hand eczema is based on patient history, exposure assessment, physical examination, and the results of patch testing. Management of hand eczema starts with education of the patient on the etiology of the disease, and the needed changes in behavior regarding skin care and preventive measures, and avoidance of relevant exposure factors. In many cases, medical treatment is needed for successful management of the disease; use of medication can only be successful with proper education and avoidance of relevant exposure

The First Post-Kepler Brightness Dips of KIC 8462852

We present a photometric detection of the first brightness dips of the unique variable star KIC 8462852 since the end of the Kepler space mission in 2013 May. Our regular photometric surveillance started in October 2015, and a sequence of dipping began in 2017 May continuing on through the end of 2017, when the star was no longer visible from Earth. We distinguish four main 1-2.5% dips, named "Elsie," "Celeste," "Skara Brae," and "Angkor", which persist on timescales from several days to weeks. Our main results so far are: (i) there are no apparent changes of the stellar spectrum or polarization during the dips; (ii) the multiband photometry of the dips shows differential reddening favoring non-grey extinction. Therefore, our data are inconsistent with dip models that invoke optically thick material, but rather they are in-line with predictions for an occulter consisting primarily of ordinary dust, where much of the material must be optically thin with a size scale <<1um, and may also be consistent with models invoking variations intrinsic to the stellar photosphere. Notably, our data do not place constraints on the color of the longer-term "secular" dimming, which may be caused by independent processes, or probe different regimes of a single process