Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

The risk of occlusion and associated events in the Asymptomatic Carotid Surgery Trial: a 10-year prospective study

This study analyzes the risk of occlusion and associated neurological events in patients with severe asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis included in the ACST-1 trial

Ten-year risk of stroke in patients with previous cerebral infarction and the impact of carotid surgery in the Asymptomatic Carotid Surgery Trial

Background Silent brain infarcts are common in patients at increased risk of stroke and are associated with a poor prognosis. In patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis, similar adverse associations were claimed, but the impact of previous infarction or symptoms on the beneficial effects of carotid endarterectomy is not clear. Our aim was to evaluate the impact of prior cerebral infarction in patients enrolled in the Asymptomatic Carotid Surgery Trial, a large trial with 10-year follow-up in which participants whose carotid stenosis had not caused symptoms for at least six months were randomly allocated either immediate or deferred carotid endarterectomy. Methods The first Asymptomatic Carotid Surgery Trial included 3120 patients. Of these, 2333 patients with baseline brain imaging were identified and divided into two groups irrespective of treatment assignment, 1331 with evidence of previous cerebral infarction, defined as a history of ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack > 6 months prior to randomization or radiological evidence of an asymptomatic infarct (group 1) and 1002 with normal imaging and no prior stroke or transient ischemic attack (group 2). Stroke and vascular deaths were compared during follow-up, and the impact of carotid endarterectomy was observed in both groups. Results Baseline characteristics of patients with and without baseline brain imaging were broadly similar. Of those included in the present report, male gender and hypertension were more common in group 1, while mean ipsilateral stenosis was slightly greater in group 2. At 10 years follow-up, stroke was more common among participants with cerebral infarction before randomization (absolute risk increase 5.8% (1.8–9.8), p = 0.004), and the risk of stroke and vascular death was also higher in this group (absolute risk increase 6.9% (1.9–12.0), p = 0.007). On multivariate analysis, prior cerebral infarction was associated with a greater risk of stroke (hazard ratio = 1.51, 95% confidence interval: 1.17–1.95, p = 0.002) and of stroke or other vascular death (hazard ratio = 1.30, 95% confidence interval: 1.11–1.52, p = 0.001). At 10 years, greater absolute benefits from immediate carotid endarterectomy were seen in those patients with prior cerebral infarction (6.7% strokes immediate carotid endarterectomy vs. 14.7% delayed carotid endarterectomy; hazard ratio 0.47 (0.34–0.65), p = 0.003), compared to those lower risk patients without prior cerebral infarction (6.0% vs. 9.9%, respectively; hazard ratio 0.61 (0.39–0.94), p = 0.005), though it must be emphasized that the first Asymptomatic Carotid Surgery Trial was not designed to test this retrospective and non-randomized comparison. Conclusions Asymptomatic carotid stenosis patients with prior cerebral infarction have a higher stroke risk during long-term follow-up than those without prior cerebral infarction. Evidence of prior ischemic events might help identify patients in whom carotid intervention is particularly beneficial

Ten-year risk of stroke in patients with previous cerebral infarction and the impact of carotid surgery in the Asymptomatic Carotid Surgery Trial

Background Silent brain infarcts are common in patients at increased risk of stroke and are associated with a poor prognosis. In patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis, similar adverse associations were claimed, but the impact of previous infarction or symptoms on the beneficial effects of carotid endarterectomy is not clear. Our aim was to evaluate the impact of prior cerebral infarction in patients enrolled in the Asymptomatic Carotid Surgery Trial, a large trial with 10-year follow-up in which participants whose carotid stenosis had not caused symptoms for at least six months were randomly allocated either immediate or deferred carotid endarterectomy. Methods The first Asymptomatic Carotid Surgery Trial included 3120 patients. Of these, 2333 patients with baseline brain imaging were identified and divided into two groups irrespective of treatment assignment, 1331 with evidence of previous cerebral infarction, defined as a history of ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack > 6 months prior to randomization or radiological evidence of an asymptomatic infarct (group 1) and 1002 with normal imaging and no prior stroke or transient ischemic attack (group 2). Stroke and vascular deaths were compared during follow-up, and the impact of carotid endarterectomy was observed in both groups. Results Baseline characteristics of patients with and without baseline brain imaging were broadly similar. Of those included in the present report, male gender and hypertension were more common in group 1, while mean ipsilateral stenosis was slightly greater in group 2. At 10 years follow-up, stroke was more common among participants with cerebral infarction before randomization (absolute risk increase 5.8% (1.8–9.8), p = 0.004), and the risk of stroke and vascular death was also higher in this group (absolute risk increase 6.9% (1.9–12.0), p = 0.007). On multivariate analysis, prior cerebral infarction was associated with a greater risk of stroke (hazard ratio = 1.51, 95% confidence interval: 1.17–1.95, p = 0.002) and of stroke or other vascular death (hazard ratio = 1.30, 95% confidence interval: 1.11–1.52, p = 0.001). At 10 years, greater absolute benefits from immediate carotid endarterectomy were seen in those patients with prior cerebral infarction (6.7% strokes immediate carotid endarterectomy vs. 14.7% delayed carotid endarterectomy; hazard ratio 0.47 (0.34–0.65), p = 0.003), compared to those lower risk patients without prior cerebral infarction (6.0% vs. 9.9%, respectively; hazard ratio 0.61 (0.39–0.94), p = 0.005), though it must be emphasized that the first Asymptomatic Carotid Surgery Trial was not designed to test this retrospective and non-randomized comparison. Conclusions Asymptomatic carotid stenosis patients with prior cerebral infarction have a higher stroke risk during long-term follow-up than those without prior cerebral infarction. Evidence of prior ischemic events might help identify patients in whom carotid intervention is particularly beneficial

Ten-year risk of stroke in patients with previous cerebral infarction and the impact of carotid surgery in the Asymptomatic Carotid Surgery Trial

Background Silent brain infarcts are common in patients at increased risk of stroke and are associated with a poor prognosis. In patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis, similar adverse associations were claimed, but the impact of previous infarction or symptoms on the beneficial effects of carotid endarterectomy is not clear. Our aim was to evaluate the impact of prior cerebral infarction in patients enrolled in the Asymptomatic Carotid Surgery Trial, a large trial with 10-year follow-up in which participants whose carotid stenosis had not caused symptoms for at least six months were randomly allocated either immediate or deferred carotid endarterectomy. Methods The first Asymptomatic Carotid Surgery Trial included 3120 patients. Of these, 2333 patients with baseline brain imaging were identified and divided into two groups irrespective of treatment assignment, 1331 with evidence of previous cerebral infarction, defined as a history of ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack andgt; 6 months prior to randomization or radiological evidence of an asymptomatic infarct (group 1) and 1002 with normal imaging and no prior stroke or transient ischemic attack (group 2). Stroke and vascular deaths were compared during follow-up, and the impact of carotid endarterectomy was observed in both groups. Results Baseline characteristics of patients with and without baseline brain imaging were broadly similar. Of those included in the present report, male gender and hypertension were more common in group 1, while mean ipsilateral stenosis was slightly greater in group 2. At 10 years follow-up, stroke was more common among participants with cerebral infarction before randomization (absolute risk increase 5.8% (1.8–9.8), p = 0.004), and the risk of stroke and vascular death was also higher in this group (absolute risk increase 6.9% (1.9–12.0), p = 0.007). On multivariate analysis, prior cerebral infarction was associated with a greater risk of stroke (hazard ratio = 1.51, 95% confidence interval: 1.17–1.95, p = 0.002) and of stroke or other vascular death (hazard ratio = 1.30, 95% confidence interval: 1.11–1.52, p = 0.001). At 10 years, greater absolute benefits from immediate carotid endarterectomy were seen in those patients with prior cerebral infarction (6.7% strokes immediate carotid endarterectomy vs. 14.7% delayed carotid endarterectomy; hazard ratio 0.47 (0.34–0.65), p = 0.003), compared to those lower risk patients without prior cerebral infarction (6.0% vs. 9.9%, respectively; hazard ratio 0.61 (0.39–0.94), p = 0.005), though it must be emphasized that the first Asymptomatic Carotid Surgery Trial was not designed to test this retrospective and non-randomized comparison. Conclusions Asymptomatic carotid stenosis patients with prior cerebral infarction have a higher stroke risk during long-term follow-up than those without prior cerebral infarction. Evidence of prior ischemic events might help identify patients in whom carotid intervention is particularly beneficial

Contribution of mRNA Splicing to Mismatch Repair Gene Sequence Variant Interpretation

Functional assays that assess mRNA splicing can be used in interpretation of the clinical significance of sequence variants, including the Lynch syndrome-associated mismatch repair (MMR) genes. The purpose of this study was to investigate the contribution of splicing assay data to the classification of MMR gene sequence variants. We assayed mRNA splicing for 24 sequence variants in MLH1, MSH2, and MSH6, including 12 missense variants that were also assessed using a cell-free in vitro MMR activity (CIMRA) assay. Multifactorial likelihood analysis was conducted for each variant, combining CIMRA outputs and clinical data where available. We collated these results with existing public data to provide a dataset of splicing assay results for a total of 671 MMR gene sequence variants (328 missense/in-frame indel), and published and unpublished repair activity measurements for 154 of these variants. There were 241 variants for which a splicing aberration was detected: 92 complete impact, 33 incomplete impact, and 116 where it was not possible to determine complete versus incomplete splicing impact. Splicing results mostly aided in the interpretation of intronic (72%) and silent (92%) variants and were the least useful for missense substitutions/in-frame indels (10%). MMR protein functional activity assays were more useful in the analysis of these exonic variants but by design they were not able to detect clinically important splicing aberrations identified by parallel mRNA assays. The development of high throughput assays that can quantitatively assess impact on mRNA transcript expression and protein function in parallel will streamline classification of MMR gene sequence variants. Keywords: Lynch syndrome; mRNA splicing; mismatch repair genes; splicing aberrations; variant interpretation and classification; variant type

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980–2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

Background: Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. Methods: For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. Findings: By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty interval 80·4–82·7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39·9% [37·5–42·1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38·5% [35·4–41·3] in 1980 to 83·6% [82·3–84·8] in 2019). Third-dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42·6% (41·4–44·1) in 1980 to 79·8% (78·4–81·1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56·8 million (52·6–60·9) to 14·5 million (13·4–15·9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. Interpretation: After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.publishedVersionPeer reviewe

Bleeding risk in very old patients on vitamin K antagonist treatment: results of a prospective collaborative study on elderly patients followed by Italian Centres for Anticoagulation.

BACKGROUND: Vitamin K antagonist (VKA) therapy is increasingly being used for the prevention of venous thromboembolism and stroke in atrial fibrillation. Bleeds are the major concern for VKA prescription, especially in very old patients who carry many risk factors for bleeding. We performed a large multicenter prospective observational study that enrolled very old patients to evaluate the quality of anticoagulation and the incidence of bleedings. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study included 4093 patients ≥80 years of age who were naïve to VKA for thromboprophylaxis of atrial fibrillation or after venous thromboembolism. Patients' demographic and clinical data were collected, and the quality of anticoagulation and the incidence of bleeding were recorded. The follow-up was 9603 patient-years; median age at the beginning of follow-up was 84 years (range, 80 to 102 years). We recorded 179 major bleedings (rate, 1.87 per 100 patient-years), 26 fatal (rate, 0.27 per 100 patient-years). The rate of bleeding was higher in men compared with women (relative risk, 1.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.12 to 1.72; P=0.002) and among patients ≥85 years of age compared with younger patients (relative risk, 1.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.0 to 1.65; P=0.048). Time in therapeutic range was 62% (interquartile range, 49% to 75%). History of bleeding, active cancer, and history of falls were independently associated with bleeding risk in Cox regression analysis. CONCLUSION: In this large study on very old patients on VKA carefully monitored by anticoagulation clinics, the rate of bleedings was low, suggesting that age in itself should not be considered a contraindication to treatment. Adequate management of VKA therapy in specifically trained center allows very old and frail patients to benefit from VKA thromboprophylaxis