Dynamic Pricing in the Presence of Social Learning and Strategic Consumers

When a product of uncertain quality is first introduced, consumers may choose to strategically delay their purchasing decisions in anticipation of the product reviews of their peers. This paper investigates how the presence of social learning affects the strategic interaction between a dynamic-pricing monopolist and a forward-looking consumer population, within a simple two-period model. Our analysis yields three main insights. First, we find that the presence of social learning has significant structural implications for optimal pricing policies: In the absence of social learning, decreasing price plans are always preferred by the firm; by contrast, in the presence of social learning we find that (i) if the firm commits to a price path ex ante (preannounced pricing), an increasing price plan is typically announced, whereas (ii) if the firm adjusts price dynamically (responsive pricing), prices are initially low and may either rise or decline over time. Second, we establish that under both preannounced and responsive pricing, even though the social learning process exacerbates strategic consumer behavior (i.e., increases strategic purchasing delays), its presence results in an increase in expected firm profit. Third, we illustrate that, contrary to results reported in existing literature on strategic consumer behavior, in settings where social learning is significantly influential, preannounced pricing policies are generally not beneficial for the firm

Equilibrium Models with Dynamic Demand and Dynamic Supply

This dissertation comprises two studies of equilibrium models with both dynamic demand and dynamic supply sides. The first is an empirical study of the US video games industry, and the second is a theoretical study. Chapters 1 and 2 develop a model for quantifying the role of social learning in consumers’ dynamic demand and finding optimal intertemporal prices for profit maximizing firms in a market populated by forward-looking social learners. Optimal prices are a result of a Markov perfect equilibrium played between the firm and the consumers. Nested in the market equilibrium is a demand equilibrium played among consumers who make the “right” purchase/wait decisions given endogenously produced product information. The empirical exercises are conducted in two steps. The first step estimates demand parameters, including those associated with social learning. Endogeneity of prices is remedied with a pseudo pricing policy function of relevant state variables. In the second step, optimal prices are found by the Mathematical Programming with Equilibrium Constraints (MPEC) approach. The model is applied to the US video games industry with sales data of PlayStation 3 games. The results reveal that (1) compared to static social learning, forward- looking social learning reduces equilibrium profits of games in the sample by $5.2M (28.4%) on average; (2) an incorrect belief of consumers’ forward-looking behavior reduces a firm’s profits by a maximum of 29.92%. These results indicate great value for researches on consumers’ forward-looking social learning behavior. In chapter 3 we study the effect of adding strategic buyers to the computational model of dynamic price competition when sellers experience learning-by-doing and organizational forgetting developed by Besanko et al. (2010) (BDKS). The addition is motivated by the presence of repeat buyers in many industries where learning- by-doing has been documented, and the role that the assumption of a monopsony strategic buyer has played in the theoretical literature. We characterize the degree of strategic buyer behavior using a single parameter, and show that even quite limited strategic behavior changes the equilibrium correspondance by almost entirely eliminating the multiplicity of equilibria emphasized by BDKS, and ensuring that no seller is likely to dominate the industry in the long-run. We examine how the welfare of both buyers and sellers varies with the degree of strategic buyer behavior

The Future of Retail Operations

Retailing consists of all the activities associated with the selling of goods to the final consumer. In this article, we review the research on retail operations published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Research (M&SOM) since 1999. We then discuss the current retail landscape and the new research directions it offers, in which M&SOM can play a prominent role

Co-ordination and Lock-in: Competition with Switching Costs and Network Effects

Switching costs and network effects bind customers to vendors if products are incompatible, locking customers or even markets in to early choices. Lock-in hinders customers from changing suppliers in response to (predictable or unpredictable) changes in effciency, and gives vendors lucrative ex post market power-over the same buyer in the case of switching costs (or brand loyalty), or over others with network effects. Firms compete ex ante for this ex post power, using penetration pricing, introductory offers, and price wars. Such "competition for the market" or "life-cycle competition" can adequately replace ordinary compatible competition, and can even be fiercer than compatible competition by weakening differentiation. More often, however, incompatible competition not only involves direct effciency losses but also softens competition and magnifies incumbency advantages. With network effects, established firms have little incentive to offer better deals when buyers’ and complementors’ expectations hinge on non-effciency factors (especially history such as past market shares), and although competition between incompatible networks is initially unstable and sensitive to competitive offers and random events, it later "tips" to monopoly, after which entry is hard, often even too hard given incompatibility. And while switching costs can encourage small-scale entry, they discourage sellers from raiding one another’s existing customers, and s also discourage more aggressive entry. Because of these competitive effects, even ineffcient incompatible competition is often more profitable than compatible competition, especially for dominant rms with installed-base or expectational advantages. Thus firms probably seek incompatibility too often. We therefore favor thoughtfully pro-compatibility public policy.

Progress in information technology and tourism management: 20 years on and 10 years after the Internet—The state of eTourism research

This paper reviews the published articles on eTourism in the past 20 years. Using a wide variety of sources, mainly in the tourism literature, this paper comprehensively reviews and analyzes prior studies in the context of Internet applications to Tourism. The paper also projects future developments in eTourism and demonstrates critical changes that will influence the tourism industry structure. A major contribution of this paper is its overview of the research and development efforts that have been endeavoured in the field, and the challenges that tourism researchers are, and will be, facing

A Dynamic Analysis of the Market for Wide-Bodied Commercial Aircraft

This paper develops a multi-agent dynamic model of the commercial aircraft industry and then uses that model to analyze industry pricing, industry performance, and optimal industry policy. In the model, firms are differentiated in their products and cost structure, and entry, exit, prices, and quantity sold are endogenously determined in dynamic equilibrium. Re ecting the focus of the paper, demand and supply are modeled structurally, while investment is modeled in reduced form. The model utilizes a cost model of commercial aircraft production developed and estimated in a previous paper (Benkard (2000)), and a discrete choice model of commercial aircraft demand to determine static profits. I find that many unusual aspects of the aircraft data, such as high concentration and pricing below the level of static marginal cost, are explained by this model. The model also replicates the stochastic evolution of the industry well. Many of these properties could not be explained with a static model. These results provide support for the structural dynamic modeling approach in general. I also find that the unconstrained Markov perfect equilibrium is quite efficient from a social perspective, providing only 9% less welfare on average than a social planner would obtain, but that the Markov perfect equilibrium shifts a substantial amount of welfare from consumers to producers. Finally, I provide simulation evidence that an anti-trust policy in the form of a concentration restriction would be welfare reducing with high probability.

Surge pricing on a service platform under spatial spillovers: evidence from Uber

Ride-sharing platforms employ surge pricing to match anticipated capacity spillover with demand. We develop an optimization model to characterize the relationship between surge price and spillover. We test predicted relationships using a spatial panel model on a dataset from Ubers operation. Results reveal that Ubers pricing accounts for both capacity and price spillover. There is a debate in the management community on the ecacy of labor welfare mechanisms associated with shared capacity. We conduct counterfactual analysis to provide guidance in regards to the debate, for managing congestion, while accounting for consumer and labor welfare through this online platform.First author draf

An Economic Approach to Article 82

This report argues in favour of an economics-based approach to Article 82, in a way similar to the reform of Article 81 and merger control. In particular, we support an effects-based rather than a form-based approach to competition policy. Such an approach focuses on the presence of anti-competitive effects that harm consumers, and is based on the examination of each specific case, based on sound economics and grounded on facts