On Understanding Catastrophe — The Case of Highly Severe Influenza-Like Illness

Computational epidemiology is a form of spatiotemporal reasoning in which social link structures are employed, and spatially explicit models are specified and executed. We point to issues thus far addressed neither by engineers, nor scientists, in the light of a use case focusing on catastrophic scenarios that assume the emergence of a highly unlikely but lethal and contagious strain of influenza. Our conclusion is that important perspectives are missing when dealing with policy issues resulting from scenario execution and analyses in computational epidemiology

A Workflow for Software Development within Computational Epidemiology

A critical investigation into computational models developed for studying the spread of communicable disease is presented. The case in point is a spatially explicit micro-meso-macro model for the entire Swedish population built on registry data, thus far used for smallpox and for influenza-like illnesses. The lessons learned from a software development project of more than 100 person months are collected into a check list. The list is intended for use by computational epidemiologists and policy makers, and the workflow incorporating these two roles is described in detail.NOTICE: This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Journal of Computationa Science. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Journal of Computational Science, VOL 2, ISSUE 3, 6 June 2011 DOI 10.1016/j.jocs.2011.05.004.</p

Algorithms for Computational Genetics Epidemiology

The most intriguing problems in genetics epidemiology are to predict genetic disease susceptibility and to associate single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with diseases. In such these studies, it is necessary to resolve the ambiguities in genetic data. The primary obstacle for ambiguity resolution is that the physical methods for separating two haplotypes from an individual genotype (phasing) are too expensive. Although computational haplotype inference is a well-explored problem, high error rates continue to deteriorate association accuracy. Secondly, it is essential to use a small subset of informative SNPs (tag SNPs) accurately representing the rest of the SNPs (tagging). Tagging can achieve budget savings by genotyping only a limited number of SNPs and computationally inferring all other SNPs. Recent successes in high throughput genotyping technologies drastically increase the length of available SNP sequences. This elevates importance of informative SNP selection for compaction of huge genetic data in order to make feasible fine genotype analysis. Finally, even if complete and accurate data is available, it is unclear if common statistical methods can determine the susceptibility of complex diseases. The dissertation explores above computational problems with a variety of methods, including linear algebra, graph theory, linear programming, and greedy methods. The contributions include (1)significant speed-up of popular phasing tools without compromising their quality, (2)stat-of-the-art tagging tools applied to disease association, and (3)graph-based method for disease tagging and predicting disease susceptibility

Likelihood-Based Inference for Discretely Observed Birth-Death-Shift Processes, with Applications to Evolution of Mobile Genetic Elements

Continuous-time birth-death-shift (BDS) processes are frequently used in stochastic modeling, with many applications in ecology and epidemiology. In particular, such processes can model evolutionary dynamics of transposable elements - important genetic markers in molecular epidemiology. Estimation of the effects of individual covariates on the birth, death, and shift rates of the process can be accomplished by analyzing patient data, but inferring these rates in a discretely and unevenly observed setting presents computational challenges. We propose a mutli-type branching process approximation to BDS processes and develop a corresponding expectation maximization (EM) algorithm, where we use spectral techniques to reduce calculation of expected sufficient statistics to low dimensional integration. These techniques yield an efficient and robust optimization routine for inferring the rates of the BDS process, and apply more broadly to multi-type branching processes where rates can depend on many covariates. After rigorously testing our methodology in simulation studies, we apply our method to study intrapatient time evolution of IS6110 transposable element, a frequently used element during estimation of epidemiological clusters of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infections.Comment: 31 pages, 7 figures, 1 tabl

EPID 9132 – Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases Transmitted via Bodily Fluids (aka Infectious Disease 2 listed in FOLIO)

This course covers advanced topics in epidemiology of infectious diseases transmitted via bodily fluids, primarily sexually transmitted infections and bloodborne infections. Important themes may include outbreak preparedness and response, surveillance, and interventions that prevent and control transmissions. Computational, mathematical and statistical tools relevant to the practice of infectious disease epidemiology will be introduced

EPID 9132 – Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases Transmitted via Bodily Fluids (aka “Infectious Disease 2” listed in FOLIO)

This course covers advanced topics in epidemiology of infectious diseases transmitted via bodily fluids, primarily sexually transmitted infections and bloodborne infections. Important themes may include outbreak preparedness and response, surveillance, and interventions that prevent and control transmissions. Computational, mathematical and statistical tools relevant to the practice of infectious disease epidemiology will be introduced

SimpactCyan 1.0 : an open-source simulator for individual-based models in HIV epidemiology with R and Python interfaces

SimpactCyan is an open-source simulator for individual-based models in HIV epidemiology. Its core algorithm is written in C++ for computational efficiency, while the R and Python interfaces aim to make the tool accessible to the fast-growing community of R and Python users. Transmission, treatment and prevention of HIV infections in dynamic sexual networks are simulated by discrete events. A generic “intervention” event allows model parameters to be changed over time, and can be used to model medical and behavioural HIV prevention programmes. First, we describe a more efficient variant of the modified Next Reaction Method that drives our continuous-time simulator. Next, we outline key built-in features and assumptions of individual-based models formulated in SimpactCyan, and provide code snippets for how to formulate, execute and analyse models in SimpactCyan through its R and Python interfaces. Lastly, we give two examples of applications in HIV epidemiology: the first demonstrates how the software can be used to estimate the impact of progressive changes to the eligibility criteria for HIV treatment on HIV incidence. The second example illustrates the use of SimpactCyan as a data-generating tool for assessing the performance of a phylodynamic inference framework

Advancing Epidemiological Science Through Computational Modeling: A Review with Novel Examples

Computational models have been successfully applied to a wide variety of research areas including infectious disease epidemiology. Especially for questions that are difficult to examine in other ways, computational models have been used to extend the range of epidemiological issues that can be addressed, advance theoretical understanding of disease processes and help identify specific intervention strategies. We explore each of these contributions to epidemiology research through discussion and examples. We also describe in detail models for raccoon rabies and methicillin-resis-tant Staphylococcus aureus, drawn from our own research, to further illustrate the role of computation in epidemiological modeling