Towards a Model of Argument Strength for Bipolar Argumentation Graphs

UID/FIL/00183/2013Bipolar argument graphs represent the structure of complex pro and contra arguments for one or more standpoints. In this article, ampliative and exclusionary principles of evaluating argument strength in bipolar acyclic argumentation graphs are laid out and compared to each other. Argument chains, linked arguments, link attackers and supporters, and convergent arguments are discussed. The strength of conductive arguments is also addressed but it is argued that more work on this type of argument is needed to properly distinguish argument strength from more general value-based components of such argu- ments. The overall conclusion of the article is that there is no justifiably unique solution to the problem of argument strength outside of a particular epistemological framework.publishersversionpublishe

ISIPTA'07: Proceedings of the Fifth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications

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Decision Maps for Distributed Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Support

This thesis presents the Decision Map approach to support decision-makers facing complex uncertain problems that defy standardised solutions. First, scenarios are generated in a distributed manner: the reasoning processes can be adapted to the problem at hand whilst respecting constraints in time and availability of experts. Second, by integrating scenarios and MCDA, this approach facilitates robust decision-making respecting multiple criteria in a transparent well-structured manner

Decision support with ill-known criteria in the collaborative supply chain context

International audienceIn the field of Supply Chain Risk Management, the attitude of managers toward risk affect the tactical decision-making process in collaborative supply chains under an uncertain environment, concerning especially capacity levels, lot-sizing rules, purchasing strategies, production scheduling,…, etc. The issue can be formulated as a sequential decision problem under uncertainty where the customer decisions affect the decisions made by the supplier. In this paper we deal with two kinds of uncertainties. The first one is the uncertainty on the indicators of performance (which are not comparable) used by the decision maker to choose a solution (for example: service quality or inventory cost). Hence, we propose an approach based on subjective probability to evaluate the probability that a decision is optimal for the first actor and the probability that it is optimal for both. From these two evaluations, we propose a ranking function to help the first actor to take into account the second one when selecting a decision. The second kind of uncertainty pertains to the demand. A classical criterion under total uncertainty is Hurwicz criterion where a weight expresses a degree of pessimism. Nevertheless, the degree of pessimism is itself ill-known. Thus, it becomes difficult to take into account the behavior of the actors. Hence, we propose an approach based on possibility theory and the so-called pignistic transform, which computes a subjective probability distribution over the criteria. Then, we apply the method used for uncertain criterion. This approach is illustrated through an example and an industrial case study

Risk prediction of product-harm events using rough sets and multiple classifier fusion:an experimental study of listed companies in China

With the increasing of frequency and destructiveness of product-harm events, study on enterprise crisis management becomes essentially important, but little literature thoroughly explores the risk prediction method of product-harm event. In this study, an initial index system for risk prediction was built based on the analysis of the key drivers of the product-harm event's evolution; ultimately, nine risk-forecasting indexes were obtained using rough set attribute reduction. With the four indexes of cumulative abnormal returns as the input, fuzzy clustering was used to classify the risk level of a product-harm event into four grades. In order to control the uncertainty and instability of single classifiers in risk prediction, multiple classifier fusion was introduced and combined with self-organising data mining (SODM). Further, an SODM-based multiple classifier fusion (SB-MCF) model was presented for the risk prediction related to a product-harm event. The experimental results based on 165 Chinese listed companies indicated that the SB-MCF model improved the average predictive accuracy and reduced variation degree simultaneously. The statistical analysis demonstrated that the SB-MCF model significantly outperformed six widely used single classification models (e.g. neural networks, support vector machine, and case-based reasoning) and other six commonly used multiple classifier fusion methods (e.g. majority voting, Bayesian method, and genetic algorithm)

Essays on freedom of choice and capabilities

A presente tese desenvolve três ensaios que abordam diferentes temas relacionados à liberdade de escolha. No primeiro ensaio, propomos uma regra para ranquear conjuntos de oportunidades conforme a liberdade de escolha que eles propiciam, e que leva consideração as meta-preferências dos indivíduos. Desenvolvendo um abordagem teorica, investigamos se, ao considerarmos indivíduos com múltiplos objetivos, algumas noções usuais acerca liberdade que foram propostas na literatura são modificadas. Os resultados mostram que a regra proposta viola o axioma da monotonicidade, e que indivíduos podem atribuir maior liberdade de escolha a conjuntos com menos opções. No segundo ensaio, propomos um experimento online baseado em analise conjunta para avaliar como a liberdade de escolha dos indivíduos é afetada pelas características dos menus que os agentes dispõem no momento de realizar escolhas. Estudamos o efeito de três bases informacionais propostas na literatura – a cardinalidade dos conjuntos, a diversidade das opções, e a qualidade dessas opções – e também investigamos se normas de comportamento social podem influenciar a liberdade de escolha dos agentes. Usando estimadores de diferenças em medias operacionalizados através de uma única regressão linear, os resultados sugerem que não apenas os elementos tradicionais como a cardinalidade, diversidade, e preferências, são fundamentais para entender liberdade de escolha, como também normas de comportamento social tem impacto significativo. Finalmente, no terceiro ensaio, investigamos como indivíduos realizam trade-offs entre diferentes dimensões de suas vidas quando consideram os seus potenciais para atingir melhores níveis de bem-estar. )Continua) Realizando um novo experimento baseado em análise conjunta, estudamos seis dimensões da vida dos indivíduos que são considerados centrais pela abordagem das capacitações, e avaliamos como diferentes circunstâncias em cada uma dessas dimensões afeta a liberdade de bem-estar dos indivíduos. Os resultados mostram que as dimensões relacionadas a segurança doméstica e a boas acomodações são de grande relevância, e, portanto, os formuladores de políticas publicas podem encontrar espaço para o estabelecimento de prioridades. Usando um modelo hierárquico Bayesiano, também investigamos se a importância que os participantes dão às dimensões estudadas varia conforme o nível de bem-estar que eles reportaram no estudo, e também se varia conforme a situação de vida em cada uma dessas seis dimensões. Os resultados sugerem que indivíduos que indicam menor bem-estar atribuem menor importância para a dimensão da vida relativa ao amor dos familiares próximos se comparado a outros participantes com maior nível de bem-estar subjetivo. Também, os participantes que indicaram ter sofrido alguma forma de violência doméstica no passado veem de forma menos negativa a ausência de uma boa condição de segurança doméstica, se comparado aos indivíduos que nunca sofreram com esse tipo de violência.This thesis presents three essays that approach different topics related to freedom of choice. In the first essay, we propose a rule to rank opportunity sets in terms of freedom of choice that considers information about individuals meta-preferences. From a theoretical perspective, we investigate whether accounting for a person’s multiple goals and objectives changes some common notions about freedom of choice that have been proposed by the literature. We show that our rule fails to respect the monotonicity axiom, and that individuals might experience greater freedom when some options are excluded from their initial opportunity sets. In the second essay, we propose an online conjoint experiment to evaluate how individuals’ freedom of choice is affected by the characteristics of the menus they have at their disposal at the moment of choice. We study the effect of traditional informational basis used to evaluate freedom of choice – sets’ cardinalities, the diversity, and the quality of their options – and also investigate whether social norms of behavior have some bearing on freedom. Using a difference-in-means estimator that is operationalized through a single linear regression, our results suggest that not only traditional elements such as cardinality, diversity, and preferences are key to understand freedom, but also that social norms of behavior have a significant impact. Finally, in our third essay, we investigate how trade-offs between capabilities take place when individuals consider their ability to achieve higher well-being. Using another conjoint experiment, we study six life domains that are considered as central by the capability approach, evaluating how varying the situation of individuals in each of these domains affect their well-being freedom. Our results show that being secure from domestic violence and enjoying a decent shelter have great relevance, and hence policymakers might find room for establishing priorities. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model, we also investigate whether the relative importance that people give to these life domains vary with participants’ subjective well-being, and with participants’ self-reported situations in each of the life domains studied. We find that subjects that reported lower well-being attached less importance to enjoying the love and care of their families as compared to those participants with higher subjective well-being. Moreover, respondents that reported to have suffered from some sort of domestic violence find less harmful the lack of a decent level of bodily security, as compared to those participants that have never suffered from such type of assault

Optimization for Decision Making II

In the current context of the electronic governance of society, both administrations and citizens are demanding the greater participation of all the actors involved in the decision-making process relative to the governance of society. This book presents collective works published in the recent Special Issue (SI) entitled “Optimization for Decision Making II”. These works give an appropriate response to the new challenges raised, the decision-making process can be done by applying different methods and tools, as well as using different objectives. In real-life problems, the formulation of decision-making problems and the application of optimization techniques to support decisions are particularly complex and a wide range of optimization techniques and methodologies are used to minimize risks, improve quality in making decisions or, in general, to solve problems. In addition, a sensitivity or robustness analysis should be done to validate/analyze the influence of uncertainty regarding decision-making. This book brings together a collection of inter-/multi-disciplinary works applied to the optimization of decision making in a coherent manner

Quantitative Techniques in Participatory Forest Management

Forest management has evolved from a mercantilist view to a multi-functional one that integrates economic, social, and ecological aspects. However, the issue of sustainability is not yet resolved. Quantitative Techniques in Participatory Forest Management brings together global research in three areas of application: inventory of the forest variables that determine the main environmental indices, description and design of new environmental indices, and the application of sustainability indices for regional implementations. All these quantitative techniques create the basis for the development of scientific methodologies of participatory sustainable forest management