Bias and Drift of the Medium-Range Decadal Climate Prediction System (MiKlip) validated by European Radiosonde Data

Quality controlled and homogenized radiosonde observations have been used to validate decadal hindcasts of the MPI-Earth-System-Model for Europe (excl. some Eastern European countries). Simulated temperatures have a cold bias of 1 to 4 K, increasing with height throughout the free troposphere over Europe. This implies that the simulated troposphere is less stable than observed by the radiosondes over Europe. Simulated relative humidity is 10 to 40 % higher than observed. Part of the humidity bias, 10 to 25 % relative humidity, is due to the simulated lower temperature, but the remainder indicates that modelled water vapour pressure is too high in the free troposphere above Europe. After full-field initialization with oceanic state, the atmospheric temperature bias changes over the first couple of years, with a relaxation time of 5 years near the surface (850 hPa) and less than 1 year near the tropopause (200 hPa). Anomaly correlations, mean-square error and logarithmic ensemble spread score indicate small improvements in hindcasted tropospheric temperatures over Europe when going from ocean anomaly initialisation to ocean anomaly initialisation plus full field atmospheric initialisation, and then to full field ocean initialisation plus full field atmospheric initialisation. In the stratosphere, these changes have little effect. For humidity, correlations and skill scores are much poorer, and little can be said about changes over Europe due to different initializations

Local comparisons of tropospheric ozone: vertical soundings at two neighbouring stations in southern Bavaria

In this study ozone profiles of the differential-absorption lidar at Garmisch-Partenkirchen are compared with those of ozone sondes of the Forschungszentrum Jülich and of the Meteorological Observatory Hohenpeißenberg (German Weather Service). The lidar measurements are quality assured by the highly accurate nearby in situ ozone measurements at the Wank (1780 m a.s.l.) and Zugspitze (2962 m a.s.l.) summits and at the Global Atmosphere Watch station Schneefernerhaus (UFS, 2670 m a.s.l.), at distances of 9 km or less from the lidar. The mixing ratios of the lidar agree with those of the monitoring stations, with a standard deviation (SD) of 1.5 ppb, and feature a slight positive offset of 0.6 ± 0.6 ppb (SD) conforming to the known −1.8 % calibration bias of the in situ instruments. Side-by-side soundings of the lidar and electrochemical (ECC) sonde measurements in February 2019 by a team of the Forschungszentrum Jülich shows small positive ozone offsets for the sonde with respect to the lidar and the mountain stations (0.5 to 3.4 ppb). After applying an altitude-independent bias correction to the sonde data an agreement to within just ±2.5 ppb in the troposphere was found, which we regard as the wintertime uncertainty of the lidar. We conclude that the recently published uncertainties of the lidar in the final configuration since 2012 are realistic and rather small for low to moderate ozone concentrations. Comparisons of the lidar with the Hohenpeißenberg routine measurements with Brewer-Mast sondes are more demanding because of the distance of 38 km between the two sites implying significant ozone differences in some layers, particularly in summer. Our comparisons cover the 3 years September 2000 to August 2001, 2009, and 2018. A slight negative average offset (−3.64 ± 3.72 ppb (SD)) of the sondes with respect to the lidar was found. We conclude that most Hohenpeißenberg sonde data could be improved in the troposphere by recalibration with the Zugspitze station data (1978 to 2011 summit, afterwards UFS). This would not only remove the average offset but also greatly reduce the variability of the individual offsets. The comparison for 2009 suggests a careful partial re-evaluation of the lidar measurements between 2007 and 2011 for altitudes above 6 km, where occasionally a negative bias occurred

Updated trends of the stratospheric ozone vertical distribution in the 60° S–60° N latitude range based on the LOTUS regression model

This study presents an updated evaluation of stratospheric ozone profile trends in the 60° S–60° N latitude range over the 2000–2020 period using an updated version of the Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere (LOTUS) regression model that was used to evaluate such trends up to 2016 for the last WMO Ozone Assessment (2018). In addition to the derivation of detailed trends as a function of latitude and vertical coordinates, the regressions are performed with the datasets averaged over broad latitude bands, i.e. 60–35° S, 20° S–20° N and 35–60° N. The same methodology as in the last assessment is applied to combine trends in these broad latitude bands in order to compare the results with the previous studies. Longitudinally resolved merged satellite records are also considered in order to provide a better comparison with trends retrieved from ground-based records, e.g. lidar, ozonesondes, Umkehr, microwave and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometers at selected stations where long-term time series are available. The study includes a comparison with trends derived from the REF-C2 simulations of the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). This work confirms past results showing an ozone increase in the upper stratosphere, which is now significant in the three broad latitude bands. The increase is largest in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes, with ∼2.2 ± 0.7 % per decade at ∼2.1 hPa and ∼2.1 ± 0.6 % per decade at ∼3.2 hPa respectively compared to ∼1.6 ± 0.6 % per decade at ∼2.6 hPa in the tropics. New trend signals have emerged from the records, such as a significant decrease in ozone in the tropics around 35 hPa and a non-significant increase in ozone in the southern midlatitudes at about 20 hPa. Non-significant negative ozone trends are derived in the lowermost stratosphere, with the most pronounced trends in the tropics. While a very good agreement is obtained between trends from merged satellite records and the CCMI-1 REF-C2 simulation in the upper stratosphere, observed negative trends in the lower stratosphere are not reproduced by models at southern and, in particular, at northern midlatitudes, where models report an ozone increase. However, the lower-stratospheric trend uncertainties are quite large, for both measured and modelled trends. Finally, 2000–2020 stratospheric ozone trends derived from the ground-based and longitudinally resolved satellite records are in reasonable agreement over the European Alpine and tropical regions, while at the Lauder station in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes they show some differences

Homogenization of the long-term global ozonesonde records

Póster presentado en: WMO Technical Conference on Meteorological and Environmental Instruments and Methods of Observation celebrada del 10 al 13 de octubre de 2022 en París

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes