Experienced tutors' deployment of thinking skills and what might be entailed in enhancing such skills

In the context of research that reports weaknesses in adults' critical thinking skills, the primary aim was to examine adults' use of critical thinking skills that are described in taxonomies and to identify areas for development. Position papers written by an opportunity sample of 32 experienced adult educators formed the data for a descriptive sample survey design intended to reveal participants' use of critical thinking skills. Each 6000-word paper was written during a development programme that supported such skills. A content analysis of the papers revealed that when participants drew on personal and published ideas about learning to derive their proposals for change, they accepted the ideas uncritically, thereby implying that they might find it difficult to help learners to examine ideas critically. The evidence supports research that implies that critical thinking skills are unlikely to develop unless overall course design privileges the development of epistemological understanding (King and Kitchener 1994, Kuhn 1999). A fundamental assumption underlying the study is that this understanding influences effective citizenship and personal development, as well as employability. A proposition that merits attention in future research is that the development of epistemological understanding is largely neglected in current curricula in formal post-16 education

Analysis of the GOES 6.7 micrometer channel observations during FIRE 2

Clouds form in moist environments. FIRE Phase II Cirrus Implementation Plan (August, 1990) noted the need for mesoscale measurements of upper tropospheric water vapor content. These measurements are needed for initializing and verifying numerical weather prediction models and for describing the environment in which cirrus clouds develop and dissipate. Various instruments where deployed to measure the water vapor amounts of the upper troposphere during FIRE II (e.g. Raman lidar, CLASS sonds and new cryogenic frost hygrometer on-board aircraft). The formation, maintenance and dissipation of cirrus clouds involve the time variation of the water budget of the upper troposphere. The GOES 6.7 mu m radiance observations are sensitive to the upper tropospheric relative humidity, and therefore proved extremely valuable in planning aircraft missions during the field phase of FIRE II. Warm 6.7 mu m equivalent black body temperatures indicate a relatively dry upper troposphere and were associated with regions generally free of cirrus clouds. Regions that were colder, implying more moisture was available may or may not have had cirrus clouds present. Animation of a time sequence of 6.7 mu m images was particularly useful in planning various FIRE missions. The 6.7 mu m observations can also be very valuable in the verification of model simulations and describing the upper tropospheric synoptic conditions. A quantitative analysis of the 6.7 mu m measurement is required to successfully incorporate these satellite observations into describing the upper tropospheric water vapor budget. Recently, Soden and Bretherton (1993) have proposed a method of deriving an upper tropospheric humidity based on observations from the GOES 6.7 mu m observations. The method is summarized in the next section. In their paper they compare their retrieval method to radiance simulations. Observations were also compared to ECMWF model output to assess the model performance. The FIRE experiment provides a unique opportunity to further verify the GOES upper tropospheric relative humidity retrieval scheme by providing (1) aircraft observations to cross-validate the calibration of the GOES 6.7 mu m channel, (2) accurate upper tropospheric water vapor concentrations for verification, and (3) veritical variability of upper tropospheric water vapor

Retrieving Layer-Averaged Tropospheric Humidity from Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder Water Vapor Channels

A method is presented to calculate layer-averaged tropospheric humidity (LAH) from the observations of the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) water vapor channels. The method is based on a linear relation between the satellite brightness temperatures (Tb) and natural logarithm of Jacobian weighted humidity. The empirical coefficients of this linear relation were calculated using different data sets, as well as a fast and a line-by-line radiative transfer (RT) model. It was found that the coefficients do not significantly depend on the data set or the RT model. This Tb to the LAH transformation method can be applied to either original or limb-corrected ATMS Tb's. The method was validated using both simulated and observed ATMS Tb's. The systematic difference between the estimated and calculated LAH values was less than 10% in most cases. We also tested the transformation method using a fixed Jacobian for each channel. The bias generally increases when fixed Jacobians are used, but there is still a satisfactory agreement between estimated and calculated LAH values. In addition, the spatial distribution of the bias was investigated using the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Interim Reanalysis (ERA-interim) and collocated ATMS observations. The bias did not indicate any significant regional dependence when actual Jacobians were used, but in the case of fixed Jacobians, the bias generally increased from middle latitude toward the poles

Assessing the consistency of satellite-derived upper tropospheric humidity measurements

Four upper tropospheric humidity (UTH) datasets derived from satellite sounders are evaluated to assess their consistency as part of the activities for the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) water vapor assessment project. The datasets include UTH computed from brightness temperature measurements of the 183.31±1 GHz channel of the Special Sensor Microwave – Humidity (SSM/T-2), Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-B (AMSU-B), and Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) and from channel 12 of the High-resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS). The four datasets are generally consistent in the interannual temporal and spatial variability of the tropics. Large positive anomalies peaked over the central equatorial Pacific region during El Niño events in the same phase with the increase of sea surface temperature (SST). Conversely, large negative anomalies were obtained during El Niño events when the tropical-domain average is taken. The weakened ascending branch of the Pacific Walker circulation in the western Pacific and the enhanced descending branches of the local Hadley circulation along the Pacific subtropics largely contributed to widespread drying areas and thus negative anomalies in the upper troposphere during El Niño events as shown in all four datasets. During a major El Niño event, UTH had higher correlations with the coincident precipitation (0.60 to 0.75) and with 200 hPa velocity potential (−0.42 to −0.64) than with SST (0.37 to 0.49). Due to differences in retrieval definitions and gridding procedures, there can be a difference of 3 %–5 % UTH between datasets on average, and larger magnitudes of anomaly values are usually observed in spatial maps of microwave UTH data. Nevertheless, the tropical-domain averaged anomalies of the datasets are close to each other with their differences being mostly less than 0.5 %, and more importantly the phases of the time series are generally consistent for variability studie

Global mean cloud feedbacks in idealized climate change experiments

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/94978/1/grl21109.pd

Generative technologies for model animation in the TopCased platform

International audienceDomain Specific Modeling Languages (DSML) are more and more used to handle high level concepts, and thus bring complex software development under control. The increasingly recurring definition of new languages raises the problem of the definition of support tools such as editor, simulator, compiler, etc. In this paper we propose generative technologies that have been designed to ease the development of model animation tools inside the TopCased platform. These tools rely on the automatically generated graphical editors of TopCased and provide additional generators for building model animator graphical interface. We also rely on an architecture for executable metamodel (i.e., the TopCased model execution metamodeling pattern) to bind the behavioral semantics of the modeling language. These tools were designed in a pragmatic manner by abstracting the various model animators that had been hand-coded in the TopCased project, and then validated by refactoring these animators

Clear sky fraction above Indonesia: an analysis for astronomical site selection

We report a study of cloud cover over Indonesia based on meteorological satellite data, spanning over the past 15 years (from 1996 to 2010) in order to be able to select a new astronomical site capable to host a multi-wavelength astronomical observatory. High spatial resolution of meteorological satellite data acquired from {\it Geostationary Meteorological Satellite 5} ({\it GMS 5}), {\it Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 9} ({\it GOES 9}), and {\it Multi-functional Transport Satellite-1R} ({\it MTSAT-1R}) are used to derive yearly average clear fractions over the regions of Indonesia. This parameter is determined from temperature measurement of the IR3 channel (water vapor, 6.7 $\mu$m) for high altitude clouds (cirrus) and from the IR1 channel (10.7 $\mu$m) for lower altitude clouds. Accordingly, an algorithm is developed to detect the corresponding clouds. The results of this study are then adopted to select the best possible sites in Indonesia to be analysed further by performing in situ measurements planned for the coming years. The results suggest that regions of East Nusa Tenggara, located in south-eastern part of Indonesia, are the most promising candidates for such an astronomical site. Yearly clear sky fraction of this regions may reach better than 70 per cent with an uncertainty of 10 per cent.Comment: 15 pages, 13 figures, and 4 table

Helping education undergraduates to use appropriate criteria for evaluating accounts of motivation

The aim of the study was to compare students in a control group with those in a treatment group with respect to evaluative comments on psychological accounts of motivation. The treatment group systematically scrutinized the nature and interpretation of evidence that supported different accounts, and the assumptions, logic, coherence and clarity of accounts. Content analysis of 74 scripts (using three categories) showed that the control group students made more assertions than either evidential or evaluative points, whereas the treatment group used evaluative statements as often as they used assertion. The findings provide support for privileging activities that develop understanding of how knowledge might be contested, and suggest a need for further research on pedagogies to serve this end. The idea is considered that such understanding has a pivotal role in the development of critical thinking

Radiative forcing of climate: the historical evolution of the radiative forcing concept, the forcing agents and their quantification, and applications

We describe the historical evolution of the conceptualization, formulation, quantification, application and utilization of “radiative forcing (RF, see e.g., IPCC, 1990)” of Earth’s climate. Basic theories of shortwave and long wave radiation were developed through the 19th and 20th centuries, and established the analytical framework for defining and quantifying the perturbations to the Earth’s radiative energy balance by natural and anthropogenic influences. The insight that the Earth’s climate could be radiatively forced by changes in carbon dioxide, first introduced in the 19th century, gained empirical support with sustained observations of the atmospheric concentrations of the gas beginning in 1957. Advances in laboratory and field measurements, theory, instrumentation, computational technology, data and analysis of well-mixed greenhouse gases and the global climate system through the 20th Century enabled the development and formalism of RF; this allowed RF to be related to changes in global-mean surface temperature with the aid of increasingly sophisticated models. This in turn led to RF becoming firmly established as a principal concept in climate science by 1990. The linkage with surface temperature has proven to be the most important application of the RF concept, enabling a simple metric to evaluate the relative climate impacts of different agents. The late 1970s and 1980s saw accelerated developments in quantification including the first assessment of the effect of the forcing due to doubling of carbon dioxide on climate (the “Charney” report, National Research Council, 1979). The concept was subsequently extended to a wide variety of agents beyond well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and halocarbons) to short-lived species such as ozone. The WMO (1986) and IPCC (1990) international assessments began the important sequence of periodic evaluations and quantifications of the forcings by natural (solar irradiance changes and stratospheric aerosols resulting from volcanic eruptions) and a growing set of anthropogenic agents (WMGHGs, ozone, aerosols, land surface changes, contrails). From 1990s to the present, knowledge and scientific confidence in the radiative agents acting on the climate system has proliferated. The conceptual basis of RF has also evolved as both our understanding of the way radiative forcing drives climate change, and the diversity of the forcing mechanisms, have grown. This has led to the current situation where “Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF, e.g., IPCC, 2013)” is regarded as the preferred practical definition of radiative forcing in order to better capture the link between forcing and global-mean surface temperature change. The use of ERF, however, comes with its own attendant issues, including challenges in its diagnosis from climate models, its applications to small forcings, and blurring of the distinction between rapid climate adjustments (fast responses) and climate feedbacks; this will necessitate further elaboration of its utility in the future. Global climate model simulations of radiative perturbations by various agents have established how the forcings affect other climate variables besides temperature e.g., precipitation. The forcing-response linkage as simulated by models, including the diversity in the spatial distribution of forcings by the different agents, has provided a practical demonstration of the effectiveness of agents in perturbing the radiative energy balance and causing climate changes. The significant advances over the past half-century have established, with very high confidence, that the global-mean ERF due to human activity since preindustrial times is positive (the 2013 IPCC assessment gives a best estimate of 2.3 W m-2, with a range from 1.1 to 3.3 W m-2; 90% confidence interval). Further, except in the immediate aftermath of climatically-significant volcanic eruptions, the net anthropogenic forcing dominates over natural radiative forcing mechanisms. Nevertheless, the substantial remaining uncertainty in the net anthropogenic ERF leads to large uncertainties in estimates of climate sensitivity from observations and in predicting future climate impacts. The uncertainty in the ERF arises principally from the incorporation of the rapid climate adjustments in the formulation, the well-recognized difficulties in characterizing the preindustrial state of the atmosphere, and the incomplete knowledge of the interactions of aerosols with clouds. This uncertainty impairs the quantitative evaluation of climate adaptation and mitigation pathways in the future. A grand challenge in Earth System science lies in continuing to sustain the relatively simple essence of the radiative forcing concept in a form similar to that originally devised, and at the same time improving the quantification of the forcing. This, in turn, demands an accurate, yet increasingly complex and comprehensive, accounting of the relevant processes in the climate system