45 research outputs found
Inter- and transdisciplinary scenario construction to explore future land-use options in southern Amazonia
Our aim with this paper is to present a novel approach for developing story
lines and scenarios by combining qualitative knowledge and quantitative data
from different disciplines and discussing the results with relevant decision
makers. This research strategy offers a solid foundation for perspectives into
the future. The âlaboratoryâ is the Brazilian Amazon, one of the hotspots of
land-use change where local and global interests both collide and converge:
local livelihoods are affected by regional and global climate change and by
the loss of biodiversity caused by local and global economic interests in
agro-industrial land use; such use contributes, in turn, to climate change.
After decades of diverse policy interventions the question arises: What can we
learn from past trajectories for a more sustainable development in the future?
To answer this question, we combined qualitative story lines for the region,
reviewed by local experts, with quantitative land-use scenarios, to study
their regional and local manifestations in space. These results were then
discussed again with local and national experts. Our findings suggest that in-
depth knowledge of the diverging perspectives at a very local level is a
fundamental prerequisite for downscaling global scenarios and upscaling local
approaches to sustainable land-use management and thus, to producing
communicable and applicable results
Can agricultural intensification help to conserve biodiversity? A scenario study for the African continent
Globally, the production of food, feed, bioenergy, and biomaterials has increased considerably during the past decades. This was achieved by the expansion of agricultural land and the intensification of agricultural management. Due to the conversion of natural ecosystems and the increasing use of pesticides and fertilizers, these processes are recognized as important causes of biodiversity loss. This study focuses on the African continent and analyses the potentials to achieve a stable food provision for a growing population, and at the same time, reduce further losses of biodiversity. These targets are important elements of the UN Agenda 2030. Using the spatially explicit land-use model LandSHIFT, we assessed the effectiveness of different land-sparing and land-sharing strategies to achieve these targets until the year 2030. The simulation results indicate that under the assumptions tested, the land sparing approach yields the most desirable results both, on the continental and the regional level. However, the land sharing/sparing framework in general, and the research presented here only analyse the effect of two factors of many (food production and biodiversity conservation). Hence, this study should not be understood to provide specific management recommendations. Further studies, from the regional to the local level, are required that apply a systems approach to understand and explain the multiple dimensions of sustainable food production on the African continent.Ye
Summary of Milestones 2030 : Elements and milestones for the development of a stable and sustainable bioenergy strategy
This publication is the English version of the summary of the German report âMeilensteine
2030â (THRĂN et al. 2015) which is published in the series of the funding programme âBiomass
energy useâ. The report describes elements and milestones for the development of a
stable and sustainable bioenergy strategy
Recommended from our members
A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture
Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalize the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture â Eur-Agri-SSPs â to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consistency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports inter-comparisons of IAAS. © 2019 Elsevier Lt
A protocol to develop shared socio-economic pathways for European agriculture
Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalize the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture â Eur-Agri-SSPs â to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consistency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports inter-comparisons of IAAS
Analyzing the relationship between urbanization, food supply and demand, and irrigation requirements in Jordan
The landscape surrounding urban areas is often used as farmland. With the observed expansion of urban areas over the last decades and a projected continuation of this trend, our objective was to analyze how urbanization affects food supply and demand in The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. We used a chain of simulation models covering components of the atmosphere (climate simulations), biosphere (crop yield calculations), and anthroposphere (simulations of urban expansion and land-use change) to calculate the effect of farmland displacement on land and water resources (hydrosphere). Our simulations show that the displacement of farmland itself has hardly any effect on cropland demand, crop yields, or irrigation water requirements. These results indicate that Jordan has sufficient productive areas available to buffer effects of urban expansion on food production for the next decades. However, this picture changes dramatically once we include changes in socioeconomy and climate in our simulations. The isolated effect of climate change results in an expected increase in irrigation water requirements of 19 MCM by 2025 and 64 MCM by 2050. It furthermore leads to an increase in cropland area of 147âŻkm2 by 2025 and 265âŻkm2 by 2050. While the combined analysis of urban expansion, climate change, and socioeconomic change makes optimistic assumptions on the increase in crop yields by 2050, the results still indicate a pronounced effect on cropland demands (2700âŻkm2) and a steep increase in irrigation water requirements (439 MCM). Our simulation results highlight the importance of high resolution, spatially explicit projections of future land changes as well as the importance of spatiotemporal scenario studies at the regional level to help improving water planning strategies.The research presented in this manuscript was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research [contract 01LW0502]. We would like to thank our colleagues from IMK-559 IFU for providing the climate data without which this study would not have been possible. The authors thank the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments that helped improve the quality of this manuscript.YesThis journal operates a single blind review process. All contributions will be initially assessed by the editor for suitability for the journal. Papers deemed suitable are then typically sent to a minimum of two independent expert reviewers to assess the scientific quality of the paper. The Editor is responsible for the final decision regarding acceptance or rejection of articles. The Editor's decision is final
Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison
Model-based global projections of future land use and land cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socio-economic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g. boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process as well as improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity
Meilensteine 2030: Elemente und Meilensteine fĂŒr die Entwicklung einer tragfĂ€higen und nachhaltigen Bioenergiestrategie : Endbericht zu FKZ 03KB065, FKZ 03MAP230
In einer weitgehend auf erneuerbaren Energien fuĂenden Energieversorgung in Deutschland
muss Bioenergie kĂŒnftig die LĂŒcken fĂŒllen, die nicht aus anderen Quellen gespeist
werden können â diese These hat die Diskussion um Bioenergie im beginnenden 21. Jahrhundert
stark bestimmt (BARZANTNY et al., 2009; KIRCHNER & MATTHES, 2009; SaCHVERSTĂNDIGENRAT
FĂR UMWELTFRAGEN, 2011; SCHLESINGER et al., 2010, 2011).
Dabei gibt es sowohl starke Argumente fĂŒr den flexiblen Einsatz im Strombereich als auch
fĂŒr ausgewĂ€hlte Kraftstoffpfade (z. B. Schwerlastverkehr, Schifffahrt, Flugverkehr), wĂ€hrend
im WĂ€rmebereich Bioenergie als gut durch alternative erneuerbare Versorgungskonzepte
ersetzbar gilt. Jedoch hat sich auch gezeigt, dass Biomasse zwar regenerativ, jedoch
fĂŒr den konkreten Zeitraum und unter Nachhaltigkeitsaspekten nur begrenzt verfĂŒgbar ist.
KĂŒnftig wird erwartet, dass der Bedarf an Nahrungs- und Futtermitteln wie auch fĂŒr die
stoffliche Nutzung steigt. Damit wird eine Priorisierung der Einsatzbereiche fĂŒr den weiteren
Ausbau zunehmend notwendig (BMVBS, 2010; THRĂN et al., 2011; KOALITIONSVERTRAG,
2013; MAJER et al., 2013). Es herrscht Einigkeit, dass Bioenergienutzung im Einklang mit
den Zielen der nachhaltigen Entwicklung stehen muss und insbesondere gegenĂŒber der
ErnÀhrungssicherung nachrangig ist, dass die Nutzung zunehmend an den Erfordernissen
des Energiesystems ausgerichtet sein mĂŒssen und dass nur bei stetiger Weiterentwicklung
der Technologien ein angemessener Beitrag der Bioenergie erreicht werden kann. Auch
scheint es sinnvoll, dass man â vor dem Hintergrund der vielfĂ€ltigen aktuellen Entwicklungen
im Bereich der regenerativen, nicht-biogenen Energietechnologien und EnergietrÀger
â Bioenergiestrategien favorisiert, die geringe PfadabhĂ€ngigkeiten aufweisen und z. B.
Technologiekonzepte berĂŒcksichtigen, die sowohl im Strom- / WĂ€rme-Bereich als auch im
Kraftstoffsektor genutzt werden können
Describing complex interactions of social-ecological systems for tipping point assessments: an analytical framework
Humans play an interconnecting role in social-ecological systems (SES), they are part of these systems and act as agents of their destruction and regulation. This study aims to provide an analytical framework, which combines the concept of SES with the concept of tipping dynamics. As a result, we propose an analytical framework describing relevant dynamics and feedbacks within SES based on two matrixes: the âtipping matrixâ and the âcross-impact matrix.â We take the Southwestern Amazon as an example for tropical regions at large and apply the proposed analytical framework to identify key underlying sub-systems within the study region: the soil ecosystem, the household livelihood system, the regional social system, and the regional climate system, which are interconnected through a network of feedbacks. We consider these sub-systems as tipping elements (TE), which when put under stress, can cross a tipping point (TP), resulting in a qualitative and potentially irreversible change of the respective TE. By systematically assessing linkages and feedbacks within and between TEs, our proposed analytical framework can provide an entry point for empirically assessing tipping point dynamics such as âtipping cascades,â which means that the crossing of a TP in one TE may force the tipping of another TE. Policy implications: The proposed joint description of the structure and dynamics within and across SES in respect to characteristics of tipping point dynamics promotes a better understanding of human-nature interactions and critical linkages within regional SES that may be used for effectively informing and directing empirical tipping point assessments, monitoring or intervention purposes. Thereby, the framework can inform policy-making for enhancing the resilience of regional SES
Describing complex interactions of social-ecological systems for tipping point assessments: an analytical framework
Humans play an interconnecting role in social-ecological systems (SES), they are part of these systems and act as agents of their destruction and regulation. This study aims to provide an analytical framework, which combines the concept of SES with the concept of tipping dynamics. As a result, we propose an analytical framework describing relevant dynamics and feedbacks within SES based on two matrixes: the âtipping matrixâ and the âcross-impact matrix.â We take the Southwestern Amazon as an example for tropical regions at large and apply the proposed analytical framework to identify key underlying sub-systems within the study region: the soil ecosystem, the household livelihood system, the regional social system, and the regional climate system, which are interconnected through a network of feedbacks. We consider these sub-systems as tipping elements (TE), which when put under stress, can cross a tipping point (TP), resulting in a qualitative and potentially irreversible change of the respective TE. By systematically assessing linkages and feedbacks within and between TEs, our proposed analytical framework can provide an entry point for empirically assessing tipping point dynamics such as âtipping cascades,â which means that the crossing of a TP in one TE may force the tipping of another TE. Policy implications: The proposed joint description of the structure and dynamics within and across SES in respect to characteristics of tipping point dynamics promotes a better understanding of human-nature interactions and critical linkages within regional SES that may be used for effectively informing and directing empirical tipping point assessments, monitoring or intervention purposes. Thereby, the framework can inform policy-making for enhancing the resilience of regional SES