Our aim with this paper is to present a novel approach for developing story
lines and scenarios by combining qualitative knowledge and quantitative data
from different disciplines and discussing the results with relevant decision
makers. This research strategy offers a solid foundation for perspectives into
the future. The “laboratory” is the Brazilian Amazon, one of the hotspots of
land-use change where local and global interests both collide and converge:
local livelihoods are affected by regional and global climate change and by
the loss of biodiversity caused by local and global economic interests in
agro-industrial land use; such use contributes, in turn, to climate change.
After decades of diverse policy interventions the question arises: What can we
learn from past trajectories for a more sustainable development in the future?
To answer this question, we combined qualitative story lines for the region,
reviewed by local experts, with quantitative land-use scenarios, to study
their regional and local manifestations in space. These results were then
discussed again with local and national experts. Our findings suggest that in-
depth knowledge of the diverging perspectives at a very local level is a
fundamental prerequisite for downscaling global scenarios and upscaling local
approaches to sustainable land-use management and thus, to producing
communicable and applicable results