Eliciting Dirichlet and Gaussian copula prior distributions for multinomial models

In this paper, we propose novel methods of quantifying expert opinion about prior distributions for multinomial models. Two different multivariate priors are elicited using median and quartile assessments of the multinomial probabilities. First, we start by eliciting a univariate beta distribution for the probability of each category. Then we elicit the hyperparameters of the Dirichlet distribution, as a tractable conjugate prior, from those of the univariate betas through various forms of reconciliation using least-squares techniques. However, a multivariate copula function will give a more flexible correlation structure between multinomial parameters if it is used as their multivariate prior distribution. So, second, we use beta marginal distributions to construct a Gaussian copula as a multivariate normal distribution function that binds these marginals and expresses the dependence structure between them. The proposed method elicits a positive-definite correlation matrix of this Gaussian copula. The two proposed methods are designed to be used through interactive graphical software written in Java

Inference of the infection status of individuals using longitudinal testing data from cryptic populations: Towards a probabilistic approach to diagnosis

Effective control of many diseases requires the accurate detection of infected individuals. Confidently ascertaining whether an individual is infected can be challenging when diagnostic tests are imperfect and when some individuals go for long periods of time without being observed or sampled. Here, we use a multi-event capture-recapture approach to model imperfect observations of true epidemiological states. We describe a method for interpreting potentially disparate results from individuals sampled multiple times over an extended period, using empirical data from a wild badger population naturally infected with Mycobacterium bovis as an example. We examine the effect of sex, capture history and current and historical diagnostic test results on the probability of being truly infected, given any combination of diagnostic test results. In doing so, we move diagnosis away from the traditional binary classification of apparently infected versus uninfected to a probability-based interpretation which is updated each time an individual is re-sampled. Our findings identified temporal variation in infection status and suggest that capture probability is influenced by year, season and infection status. This novel approach to combining ecological and epidemiological data may aid disease management decision-making by providing a framework for the integration of multiple diagnostic test data with other information

Abundance and distribution of sperm whales in the Canary Islands : can sperm whales in the Archipelago sustain the current level of ship-strike mortalities?

Funding was provided through an agreement between the Canary Islands Government and the Spanish Ministries of the Environment and Defence. Additional survey effort on the Amanay, Banquete and Concepción seamounts was funded by the Fundación Biodiversidad-MAGRAMA via the LIFE-INDEMARES project.Sperm whales are present in the Canary Islands year-round, suggesting that the archipelago is an important area for this species in the North Atlantic. However, the area experiences one of the highest reported rates of sperm whale ship-strike in the world. Here we investigate if the number of sperm whales found in the archipelago can sustain the current rate of ship-strike mortality. The results of this study may also have implications for offshore areas where concentrations of sperm whales may coincide with high densities of ship traffic, but where ship-strikes may be undocumented. The absolute abundance of sperm whales in an area of 52933 km2, covering the territorial waters of the Canary Islands, was estimated from 2668 km of acoustic line-transect survey using Distance sampling analysis. Data on sperm whale diving and acoustic behaviour, obtained from bio-logging, were used to calculate g(0) = 0.92, this is less than one because of occasional extended periods when whales do not echolocate. This resulted in an absolute abundance estimate of 224 sperm whales (95% log-normal CI 120-418) within the survey area. The recruitment capability of this number of whales, some 2.5 whales per year, is likely to be exceeded by the current ship-strike mortality rate. Furthermore, we found areas of higher whale density within the archipelago, many coincident with those previously described, suggesting that these are important habitats for females and immature animals inhabiting the archipelago. Some of these areas are crossed by active shipping lanes increasing the risk of ship-strikes. Given the philopatry in female sperm whales, replacement of impacted whales might be limited. Therefore, the application of mitigation measures to reduce the ship-strike mortality rate seems essential for the conservation of sperm whales in the Canary Islands.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Treatment of displaced intra-articular calcaneal fractures by ligamentotaxis: current concepts’ review

Introduction: A large variety of therapeutic modalities for calcaneal fractures have been described in the literature. No single treatment modality for displaced intra-articular calcaneal fractures has proven superior over the other. This review describes and compares the different percutaneous distractional approaches for intra-articular calcaneal fractures. The history, technique, anatomical and fracture considerations, limitations and the results of different distractional approaches reported in the literature are reviewed. Method: Literature review on different percutaneous distractional approaches for displaced intra-articular calcaneal fractures. Results: Eight studies in which application of a distraction technique was used for the treatment of calcaneal fractures were identified. Because of the use of different classification, techniques, and outcome scoring systems, a meta-analysis was not possible. A literature review reveals overall fair to poor result in 10-29% of patients. Ten up to 26% of patients are unable to return to work after percutaneous treatment of their fracture. A secondary arthrodesis has to be performed in 2-15% of the cases. Infectious complications occur in 2-15%. Some loss of reduction is reported in 4-67%. Conclusion: Percutaneous distractional reduction and fixation appears to be a safe technique with overall good results and an acceptable complication rate, compared with other treatment modalities for displaced intra-articular calcaneal fractures. A meta-analysis, based on Cochrane Library criteria is not possible, because of a lack of level 1 and 2 trials on this subject

New Insights on the Management of Wildlife Diseases Using Multi-State Recapture Models: The Case of Classical Swine Fever in Wild Boar

The understanding of host-parasite systems in wildlife is of increasing interest in relation to the risk of emerging diseases in livestock and humans. In this respect, many efforts have been dedicated to controlling classical swine fever (CSF) in the European Wild Boar. But CSF eradication has not always been achieved even though vaccination has been implemented at a large-scale. Piglets have been assumed to be the main cause of CSF persistence in the wild since they appeared to be more often infected and less often immune than older animals. However, this assumption emerged from laboratory trials or cross-sectional surveys based on the hunting bags.In the present paper we conducted a capture-mark-recapture study in free-ranging wild boar piglets that experienced both CSF infection and vaccination under natural conditions. We used multi-state capture recapture models to estimate the immunization and infection rates, and their variations according to the periods with or without vaccination. According to the model prediction, 80% of the infected piglets did not survive more than two weeks, while the other 20% quickly recovered. The probability of becoming immune did not increase significantly during the summer vaccination sessions, and the proportion of immune piglets was not higher after the autumn vaccination.Given the high lethality of CSF in piglets highlighted in our study, we consider unlikely that piglets could maintain the chain of CSF virus transmission. Our study also revealed the low efficacy of vaccination in piglets in summer and autumn, possibly due to the low palatability of baits to that age class, but also to the competition between baits and alternative food sources. Based on this new information, we discuss the prospects for the improvement of CSF control and the interest of the capture-recapture approach for improving the understanding of wildlife diseases

The Regulation of miRNA-211 Expression and Its Role in Melanoma Cell Invasiveness

The immediate molecular mechanisms behind invasive melanoma are poorly understood. Recent studies implicate microRNAs (miRNAs) as important agents in melanoma and other cancers. To investigate the role of miRNAs in melanoma, we subjected human melanoma cell lines to miRNA expression profiling, and report a range of variations in several miRNAs. Specifically, compared with expression levels in melanocytes, levels of miR-211 were consistently reduced in all eight non-pigmented melanoma cell lines we examined; they were also reduced in 21 out of 30 distinct melanoma samples from patients, classified as primary in situ, regional metastatic, distant metastatic, and nodal metastatic. The levels of several predicted target mRNAs of miR-211 were reduced in melanoma cell lines that ectopically expressed miR-211. In vivo target cleavage assays confirmed one such target mRNA encoded by KCNMA1. Mutating the miR-211 binding site seed sequences at the KCNMA1 3′-UTR abolished target cleavage. KCNMA1 mRNA and protein expression levels varied inversely with miR-211 levels. Two different melanoma cell lines ectopically expressing miR-211 exhibited significant growth inhibition and reduced invasiveness compared with the respective parental melanoma cell lines. An shRNA against KCNMA1 mRNA also demonstrated similar effects on melanoma cells. miR-211 is encoded within the sixth intron of TRPM1, a candidate suppressor of melanoma metastasis. The transcription factor MITF, important for melanocyte development and function, is needed for high TRPM1 expression. MITF is also needed for miR-211 expression, suggesting that the tumor-suppressor activities of MITF and/or TRPM1 may at least partially be due to miR-211's negative post transcriptional effects on the KCNMA1 transcript. Given previous reports of high KCNMA1 levels in metastasizing melanoma, prostate cancer and glioma, our findings that miR-211 is a direct posttranscriptional regulator of KCNMA1 expression as well as the dependence of this miRNA's expression on MITF activity, establishes miR-211 as an important regulatory agent in human melanoma

Parallel Driving and Modulatory Pathways Link the Prefrontal Cortex and Thalamus

Pathways linking the thalamus and cortex mediate our daily shifts from states of attention to quiet rest, or sleep, yet little is known about their architecture in high-order neural systems associated with cognition, emotion and action. We provide novel evidence for neurochemical and synaptic specificity of two complementary circuits linking one such system, the prefrontal cortex with the ventral anterior thalamic nucleus in primates. One circuit originated from the neurochemical group of parvalbumin-positive thalamic neurons and projected focally through large terminals to the middle cortical layers, resembling ‘drivers’ in sensory pathways. Parvalbumin thalamic neurons, in turn, were innervated by small ‘modulatory’ type cortical terminals, forming asymmetric (presumed excitatory) synapses at thalamic sites enriched with the specialized metabotropic glutamate receptors. A second circuit had a complementary organization: it originated from the neurochemical group of calbindin-positive thalamic neurons and terminated through small ‘modulatory’ terminals over long distances in the superficial prefrontal layers. Calbindin thalamic neurons, in turn, were innervated by prefrontal axons through small and large terminals that formed asymmetric synapses preferentially at sites with ionotropic glutamate receptors, consistent with a driving pathway. The largely parallel thalamo-cortical pathways terminated among distinct and laminar-specific neurochemical classes of inhibitory neurons that differ markedly in inhibitory control. The balance of activation of these parallel circuits that link a high-order association cortex with the thalamus may allow shifts to different states of consciousness, in processes that are disrupted in psychiatric diseases

A Synthesis of Tagging Studies Examining the Behaviour and Survival of Anadromous Salmonids in Marine Environments

This paper synthesizes tagging studies to highlight the current state of knowledge concerning the behaviour and survival of anadromous salmonids in the marine environment. Scientific literature was reviewed to quantify the number and type of studies that have investigated behaviour and survival of anadromous forms of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), brown trout (Salmo trutta), steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), and cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii). We examined three categories of tags including electronic (e.g. acoustic, radio, archival), passive (e.g. external marks, Carlin, coded wire, passive integrated transponder [PIT]), and biological (e.g. otolith, genetic, scale, parasites). Based on 207 papers, survival rates and behaviour in marine environments were found to be extremely variable spatially and temporally, with some of the most influential factors being temperature, population, physiological state, and fish size. Salmonids at all life stages were consistently found to swim at an average speed of approximately one body length per second, which likely corresponds with the speed at which transport costs are minimal. We found that there is relatively little research conducted on open-ocean migrating salmonids, and some species (e.g. masu [O. masou] and amago [O. rhodurus]) are underrepresented in the literature. The most common forms of tagging used across life stages were various forms of external tags, coded wire tags, and acoustic tags, however, the majority of studies did not measure tagging/handling effects on the fish, tag loss/failure, or tag detection probabilities when estimating survival. Through the interdisciplinary application of existing and novel technologies, future research examining the behaviour and survival of anadromous salmonids could incorporate important drivers such as oceanography, tagging/handling effects, predation, and physiology

A short history of the 5-HT2C receptor: from the choroid plexus to depression, obesity and addiction treatment

This paper is a personal account on the discovery and characterization of the 5-HT2C receptor (first known as the 5- HT1C receptor) over 30 years ago and how it translated into a number of unsuspected features for a G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) and a diversity of clinical applications. The 5-HT2C receptor is one of the most intriguing members of the GPCR superfamily. Initially referred to as 5-HT1CR, the 5-HT2CR was discovered while studying the pharmacological features and the distribution of [3H]mesulergine-labelled sites, primarily in the brain using radioligand binding and slice autoradiography. Mesulergine (SDZ CU-085), was, at the time, best defined as a ligand with serotonergic and dopaminergic properties. Autoradiographic studies showed remarkably strong [3H]mesulergine-labelling to the rat choroid plexus. [3H]mesulergine-labelled sites had pharmacological properties different from, at the time, known or purported 5-HT receptors. In spite of similarities with 5-HT2 binding, the new binding site was called 5-HT1C because of its very high affinity for 5-HT itself. Within the following 10 years, the 5-HT1CR (later named 5- HT2C) was extensively characterised pharmacologically, anatomically and functionally: it was one of the first 5-HT receptors to be sequenced and cloned. The 5-HT2CR is a GPCR, with a very complex gene structure. It constitutes a rarity in theGPCR family: many 5-HT2CR variants exist, especially in humans, due to RNA editing, in addition to a few 5-HT2CR splice variants. Intense research led to therapeutically active 5-HT2C receptor ligands, both antagonists (or inverse agonists) and agonists: keeping in mind that a number of antidepressants and antipsychotics are 5- HT2CR antagonists/inverse agonists. Agomelatine, a 5-HT2CR antagonist is registered for the treatment of major depression. The agonist Lorcaserin is registered for the treatment of aspects of obesity and has further potential in addiction, especially nicotine/ smoking. There is good evidence that the 5-HT2CR is involved in spinal cord injury-induced spasms of the lower limbs, which can be treated with 5-HT2CR antagonists/inverse agonists such as cyproheptadine or SB206553. The 5-HT2CR may play a role in schizophrenia and epilepsy. Vabicaserin, a 5-HT2CR agonist has been in development for the treatment of schizophrenia and obesity, but was stopped. As is common, there is potential for further indications for 5-HT2CR ligands, as suggested by a number of preclinical and/or genome-wide association studies (GWAS) on depression, suicide, sexual dysfunction, addictions and obesity. The 5-HT2CR is clearly affected by a number of established antidepressants/antipsychotics and may be one of the culprits in antipsychotic-induced weight gain

Dva zanimljiva terminološka rječnika

Authors thank United States Fleet Forces Command and Naval Facilities Engineering Command Atlantic for funding and support for the development of this gap analysis.Heterogeneous data collection in the marine environment has led to large gaps in our knowledge of marine species distributions. To fill these gaps, models calibrated on existing data may be used to predict species distributions in unsampled areas, given that available data are sufficiently representative. Our objective was to evaluate the feasibility of mapping cetacean densities across the entire Mediterranean Sea using models calibrated on available survey data and various environmental covariates. We aggregated 302,481 km of line transect survey effort conducted in the Mediterranean Sea within the past 20 years by many organisations. Survey coverage was highly heterogeneous geographically and seasonally: large data gaps were present in the eastern and southern Mediterranean and in non-summer months. We mapped the extent of interpolation versus extrapolation and the proportion of data nearby in environmental space when models calibrated on existing survey data were used for prediction across the entire Mediterranean Sea. Using model predictions to map cetacean densities in the eastern and southern Mediterranean, characterised by warmer, less productive waters, and more intense eddy activity, would lead to potentially unreliable extrapolations. We stress the need for systematic surveys of cetaceans in these environmentally unique Mediterranean waters, particularly in non-summer months.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe