A methodology for the risk assessment of climate variability and change under uncertainty

Existing methods for the assessment of the potential impacts of climate change in productive activities and sectors are usually limited to point estimates that do not consider the inherent variability and uncertainty of climatic and socioeconomic variables. This is a major drawback given that only a limited and potentially misleading estimation of risk can be expected when ignoring such determinant factors. In this paper, a new methodology is introduced that is capable of integrating the agent's beliefs and expert judgment into the assessment of the potential impacts of climate change in a quantitative manner by means of an objective procedure. The goal is to produce tailor-made information to assist decision-making under uncertainty in a way that is consistent with the current state of knowledge and the available subjective "expert" information. Time-charts of the evolution of different risk measures, that can be relevant for assisting decision-making and planning, can be constructed using this new methodology. This methodology is illustrated with a case study of coffee production in Mexico. Time-dependent probabilistic scenarios for coffee production and income, conditional on the agent's beliefs and expert judgment, are developed for the average producer under uncertain future conditions. It is shown that variability in production and income, generated by introducing climate variability and uncertainty are important factors affecting decision-making and the assessment of economic viability that are frequently ignored. The concept of Value at Risk, commonly applied in financial risk management, is introduced as a means for estimating the maximum expected loss for a previously chosen confidence level. Results are tailor-made for agents that have incomplete information and different beliefs. In this case study, the costs of climate change for coffee production in Veracruz are estimated to have a present value representing from 3 to 14 times the current annual value of coffee production in the state. © 2011 The Author(s)

Putative link between Polo-like kinases (PLKs) and Toll-like receptor (TLR) signaling in transformed and primary human immune cells.

Toll-like receptors (TLRs) are important sentinels of bacterial and viral infection and thus fulfil a critical sensory role in innate immunity. Polo-like kinases (PLKs), a five membered family of Ser/Thr protein kinases, have long been studied for their role in mitosis and thus represent attractive therapeutic targets in cancer therapy. Recently, PLKs were implicated in TLR signaling in mice but the role of PLKs in TLR signaling in untransformed primary immune cells has not been addressed, even though PLK inhibitors are in clinical trials. We here identified several phospho-serine and phospho-threonine residues in the known TLR pathway kinases, Interleukin-1 receptor-associated kinase (IRAK) 2 and IRAK4. These sites lie in canonical polo-box motifs (PBM), sequence motifs known to direct recruitment of PLKs to client proteins. Interestingly, PLK1 was phosphorylated and PLK 2 and 3 mRNA induced upon TLR stimulation in primary immune cells, respectively. In whole blood, PLK inhibition disparately affected TLR mediated cytokine responses in a donor- and inhibitor-dependent fashion. Collectively, PLKs may thus potentially interface with TLR signaling in humans. We propose that temporary PLK inhibitor-mediated blockade of TLR-signaling in certain patients receiving such inhibitors during cancer treatment may cause adverse effects such as an increased risk of infections due to a then compromised ability of the TLR recognition system to sense and initiate cytokine responses to invading microbes

Effects of a single administration of prostaglandin F2alpha, or a combination of prostaglandin F2alpha and prostaglandin E2, or placebo on fertility variables in dairy cows 3–5 weeks post partum, a randomized, double-blind clinical trial

BACKGROUND: Delayed uterine involution has negative effects on the fertility of cows; use of prostaglandin F2alpha alone as a single treatment has not been shown to consistently improve fertility. Combined administration of PGF2alpha and PGE2 increased uterine pressure in healthy cows. We hypothesized, that the combination of both prostaglandins would accelerate uterine involution and have, therefore, a positive effect on fertility variables. In commercial dairy farming, the benefit of a single post partum combined prostaglandin treatment should be demonstrated. METHODS: 383 cows from commercial dairy farms were included in this study. Uterine size and secretion were evaluated at treatment 21–35 days post partum and 14 days later. Cows were randomly allocated to one of three treatment groups: PGF2alpha and PGE2, PGF2alpha or placebo. For every animal participating in the study, the following reproduction variables were recorded: Interval from calving to first insemination, days open, number of artificial inseminations (AI) to conception; subsequent treatment of uterus, subsequent treatment of ovaries. Plasma progesterone level at time of treatment was used as a covariable. For continuous measurements, analysis of variance was performed. Fisher's exact test for categorical non-ordered data and exact Kruskal-Wallis test for ordered data were used; pairwise group comparisons with Bonferroni adjustment of significance level were performed. RESULTS: There was no significant difference among treatment groups in uterine size. Furthermore, there was no significant difference among treatments concerning days open, number of AI, and subsequent treatment of uterus and ovaries. Days from calving to first insemination tended to be shorter for cows with low progesterone level given PGF2alpha and PGE2 in combination than for the placebo-group (P = 0.024). CONCLUSION: The results of this study indicate that the administration of PGF2alpha or a combination of PGF2alpha and PGE2 21 to 35 days post partum had no beneficial effect upon measured fertility variables. The exception was a tendency for a shorter interval from calving to first insemination after administration of the combination of PGF2alpha and PGE2, as compared to the placebo group. Further research should be done in herds with reduced fertility and/or an increased incidence of postpartum vaginal discharge

Search for Kaluza-Klein Graviton Emission in ppˉp\bar{p} Collisions at s=1.8\sqrt{s}=1.8 TeV using the Missing Energy Signature

We report on a search for direct Kaluza-Klein graviton production in a data sample of 84 ${pb}^{-1}$ of \ppb collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 1.8 TeV, recorded by the Collider Detector at Fermilab. We investigate the final state of large missing transverse energy and one or two high energy jets. We compare the data with the predictions from a $3+1+n$-dimensional Kaluza-Klein scenario in which gravity becomes strong at the TeV scale. At 95% confidence level (C.L.) for $n$=2, 4, and 6 we exclude an effective Planck scale below 1.0, 0.77, and 0.71 TeV, respectively.Comment: Submitted to PRL, 7 pages 4 figures/Revision includes 5 figure

Measurement of the average time-integrated mixing probability of b-flavored hadrons produced at the Tevatron

We have measured the number of like-sign (LS) and opposite-sign (OS) lepton pairs arising from double semileptonic decays of $b$ and $\bar{b}$-hadrons, pair-produced at the Fermilab Tevatron collider. The data samples were collected with the Collider Detector at Fermilab (CDF) during the 1992-1995 collider run by triggering on the existence of $\mu \mu$ and $e \mu$ candidates in an event. The observed ratio of LS to OS dileptons leads to a measurement of the average time-integrated mixing probability of all produced $b$-flavored hadrons which decay weakly, $\bar{\chi} = 0.152 \pm 0.007$ (stat.) $\pm 0.011$ (syst.), that is significantly larger than the world average $\bar{\chi} = 0.118 \pm 0.005$.Comment: 47 pages, 10 figures, 15 tables Submitted to Phys. Rev.

Jet energy measurement with the ATLAS detector in proton-proton collisions at root s=7 TeV

The jet energy scale and its systematic uncertainty are determined for jets measured with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 38 pb-1. Jets are reconstructed with the anti-kt algorithm with distance parameters R=0. 4 or R=0. 6. Jet energy and angle corrections are determined from Monte Carlo simulations to calibrate jets with transverse momenta pT≥20 GeV and pseudorapidities {pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy systematic uncertainty is estimated using the single isolated hadron response measured in situ and in test-beams, exploiting the transverse momentum balance between central and forward jets in events with dijet topologies and studying systematic variations in Monte Carlo simulations. The jet energy uncertainty is less than 2. 5 % in the central calorimeter region ({pipe}η{pipe}<0. 8) for jets with 60≤pT<800 GeV, and is maximally 14 % for pT<30 GeV in the most forward region 3. 2≤{pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy is validated for jet transverse momenta up to 1 TeV to the level of a few percent using several in situ techniques by comparing a well-known reference such as the recoiling photon pT, the sum of the transverse momenta of tracks associated to the jet, or a system of low-pT jets recoiling against a high-pT jet. More sophisticated jet calibration schemes are presented based on calorimeter cell energy density weighting or hadronic properties of jets, aiming for an improved jet energy resolution and a reduced flavour dependence of the jet response. The systematic uncertainty of the jet energy determined from a combination of in situ techniques is consistent with the one derived from single hadron response measurements over a wide kinematic range. The nominal corrections and uncertainties are derived for isolated jets in an inclusive sample of high-pT jets. Special cases such as event topologies with close-by jets, or selections of samples with an enhanced content of jets originating from light quarks, heavy quarks or gluons are also discussed and the corresponding uncertainties are determined. © 2013 CERN for the benefit of the ATLAS collaboration

Measurement of the inclusive and dijet cross-sections of b-jets in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive and dijet production cross-sections have been measured for jets containing b-hadrons (b-jets) in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV, using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements use data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb^-1. The b-jets are identified using either a lifetime-based method, where secondary decay vertices of b-hadrons in jets are reconstructed using information from the tracking detectors, or a muon-based method where the presence of a muon is used to identify semileptonic decays of b-hadrons inside jets. The inclusive b-jet cross-section is measured as a function of transverse momentum in the range 20 < pT < 400 GeV and rapidity in the range |y| < 2.1. The bbbar-dijet cross-section is measured as a function of the dijet invariant mass in the range 110 < m_jj < 760 GeV, the azimuthal angle difference between the two jets and the angular variable chi in two dijet mass regions. The results are compared with next-to-leading-order QCD predictions. Good agreement is observed between the measured cross-sections and the predictions obtained using POWHEG + Pythia. MC@NLO + Herwig shows good agreement with the measured bbbar-dijet cross-section. However, it does not reproduce the measured inclusive cross-section well, particularly for central b-jets with large transverse momenta.Comment: 10 pages plus author list (21 pages total), 8 figures, 1 table, final version published in European Physical Journal

Protein Phosphatase-1α Interacts with and Dephosphorylates Polycystin-1

Polycystin signaling is likely to be regulated by phosphorylation. While a number of potential protein kinases and their target phosphorylation sites on polycystin-1 have been identified, the corresponding phosphatases have not been extensively studied. We have now determined that polycystin-1 is a regulatory subunit for protein phosphatase-1α (PP1α). Sequence analysis has revealed the presence of a highly conserved PP1-interaction motif in the cytosolic, C-terminal tail of polycystin-1; and we have shown that transfected PP1α specifically co-immunoprecipitates with a polycystin-1 C-tail construct. To determine whether PP1α dephosphorylates polycystin-1, a PKA-phosphorylated GST-polycystin-1 fusion protein was shown to be dephosphorylated by PP1α but not by PP2B (calcineurin). Mutations within the PP1-binding motif of polycystin-1, including an autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD)-associated mutation, significantly reduced PP1α-mediated dephosphorylation of polycystin-1. The results suggest that polycystin-1 forms a holoenzyme complex with PP1α via a conserved PP1-binding motif within the polycystin-1 C-tail, and that PKA-phosphorylated polycystin-1 serves as a substrate for the holoenzyme

Protective versus pathogenic anti-CD4 immunity: insights from the study of natural resistance to HIV infection

HIV-1 exposure causes several dramatic unbalances in the immune system homeostasis. Here, we will focus on the paradox whereby CD4 specific autoimmune responses, which are expected to contribute to the catastrophic loss of most part of the T helper lymphocyte subset in infected patients, may display the characteristics of an unconventional protective immunity in individuals naturally resistant to HIV-1 infection. Reference to differences in fine epitope mapping of these two oppositely polarized outcomes will be presented, with particular reference to partially or totally CD4-gp120 complex-specific antibodies. The fine tuning of the anti-self immune response to the HIV-1 receptor may determine whether viral exposure will result in infection or, alternatively, protective immunity