54 research outputs found

    The singular molecular conformation of humic acids in solution influences their ability to enhance root hydraulic conductivity and plant growth

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    Some studies have reported that the capacity of humic substances to improve plant growth is dependent on their ability to increase root hydraulic conductivity. It was proposed that this effect is directly related to the structural conformation in solution of these substances. To study this hypothesis, the effects on root hydraulic conductivity and growth of cucumber plants of a sedimentary humic acid and two polymers-polyacrylic acid and polyethylene glycol-presenting a molecular conformation in water solution different from that of the humic acid have been studied. The results show that whereas the humic acid caused an increase in root hydraulic conductivity and plant growth, both the polyacrylic acid and the polyethylene glycol did not modify plant growth and caused a decrease in root hydraulic conductivity. These results can be explained by the different molecular conformation in water solution of the three molecular systems. The relationships between these biological effects and the molecular conformation of the three molecular systems in water solution are discussed.Fil: Olaetxea, Maite. Universidad de Navarra; EspañaFil: Mora, Maria Veronica. Universidad Nacional de Río Cuarto. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Fisicoquímicas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Agrobiotecnológicas. - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Agrobiotecnológicas; ArgentinaFil: Baigorri, Roberto. Universidad de Navarra; EspañaFil: Zamarreño, Angel M.. Universidad de Navarra; EspañaFil: García-Mina, Jose M.. Universidad de Navarra; Españ

    CUL3BPM E3 ubiquitin ligases regulate MYC2, MYC3, and MYC4 stability and JA responses

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    The jasmonate (JA)-pathway regulators MYC2, MYC3, and MYC4 are central nodes in plant signaling networks integrating environmental and developmental signals to fine-tune JA defenses and plant growth. Continuous activation of MYC activity is potentially lethal. Hence, MYCs need to be tightly regulated in order to optimize plant fitness. Among the increasing number of mechanisms regulating MYC activity, protein stability is arising as a major player. However, how the levels of MYC proteins are modulated is still poorly understood. Here, we report that MYC2, MYC3, and MYC4 are targets of BPM (BTB/POZ-MATH) proteins, which act as substrate adaptors of CUL3-based E3 ubiquitin ligases. Reduction of function of CUL3BPM in amiR-bpm lines, bpm235 triple mutants, and cul3ab double mutants enhances MYC2 and MYC3 stability and accumulation and potentiates plant responses to JA such as root-growth inhibition and MYC-regulated gene expression. Moreover, MYC3 polyubiquitination levels are reduced in amiR-bpm lines. BPM3 protein is stabilized by JA, suggesting a negative feedback regulatory mechanism to control MYC activity, avoiding harmful runaway responses. Our results uncover a layer for JA-pathway regulation by CUL3BPM-mediated degradation of MYC transcription factors.This work was funded by Spanish Ministry for Science and Innovation Grants BIO2016-77216-R (Ministerio de Economia [MINECO]/Fondos Europeos de Desarrollo Regional [FEDER]) (to R.S.) and BIO2016-80551-R (MINECO/FEDER) (to V.R.). E.C. was the recipient of a Formación de Personal Investigador grant from MINECO (Reference BES-2017-081147). The mass spectrometry instrumentation was funded by the University of Strasbourg (IdEx “Equipement mi-Lourd” 2015) and by “Laboratoires d’Excellence” Grant ANR-10-LABX-0036 (NETRNA)

    Root-Shoot Signaling crosstalk involved in the shoot growth promoting action of rhizospheric humic acids

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    Numerous studies have shown the ability of humic substances to improve plant development. This action is normally reflected in an enhancement of crop yields and quality. However, the mechanisms responsible for this action of humic substances remain rather unknown. Our studies have shown that the shoot promoting action of sedimentary humic acids is dependent of its ability to increase root hydraulic conductivity through signaling pathways related to ABA, which in turn is affected in roots by humic acids in an IAA-NO dependent way. Furthermore, these studies also indicate that the primary action of humic acids in roots might also be physical, resulting from a transient mild stress caused by humic acids associated with a fouling-cleaning cycle of wall cell pores. Finally the role of alternative signal molecules, such as ROS, and corresponding signaling pathways are also discussed and modeled in the context of the above-mentioned framework.Fil: Olaetxea, Maite. Universidad de Navarra; EspañaFil: Mora, Maria Veronica. Universidad de Navarra; España. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; ArgentinaFil: Calderin García, Andrés. Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro; BrasilFil: Azevedo Santos, Leandro. Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro; BrasilFil: Baigorri, Roberto. Universidad de Navarra; EspañaFil: Fuentes, Marta Cecilia. Universidad de Navarra; EspañaFil: Garnica, María. Universidad de Navarra; EspañaFil: Louro Berbara, Ricardo Luis. Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro; BrasilFil: Zamarreño, Angel Maria. Universidad de Navarra; EspañaFil: Garcia Mina, Jose M.. Universidad de Navarra; Españ

    Cytokinin Determines Thiol-Mediated Arsenic Tolerance and Accumulation

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    The presence of arsenic in soil and water is a constant threat to plant growth in many regions of the world. Phytohormones act in the integration of growth control and stress response, but their role in plant responses to arsenic remains to be elucidated. Here, we show that arsenate [As(V)], the most prevalent arsenic chemical species in nature, causes severe depletion of endogenous cytokinins (CKs) in the model plant Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana). We found that CK signaling mutants and transgenic plants with reduced endogenous CK levels showed an As(V)-tolerant phenotype. Our data indicate that in CK-depleted plants exposed to As(V), transcript levels of As(V)/phosphate-transporters were similar or even higher than in wild-type plants. In contrast, CK depletion provoked the coordinated activation of As(V) tolerance mechanisms, leading to the accumulation of thiol compounds such as phytochelatins and glutathione, which are essential for arsenic sequestration. Transgenic CK-deficient Arabidopsis and tobacco lines show a marked increase in arsenic accumulation. Our findings indicate that CK is an important regulatory factor in plant adaptation to arsenic stress

    Ligand diversity contributes to the full activation of the jasmonate pathway in Marchantia polymorpha

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    In plants, jasmonate signaling regulates a wide range of processes from growth and development to defense responses and thermotolerance. Jasmonates, such as jasmonic acid (JA), (+)-7-iso-jasmonoyl-l-isoleucine (JA-Ile), 12-oxo-10,15(Z)-phytodienoic acid (OPDA), and dinor-12-oxo-10,15(Z)-phytodienoic acid (dn-OPDA), are derived from C18 (18 Carbon atoms) and C16 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), which are found ubiquitously in the plant kingdom. Bryophytes are also rich in C20 and C22 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCPUFAs), which are found only at low levels in some vascular plants but are abundant in organisms of other kingdoms, including animals. The existence of bioactive jasmonates derived from LCPUFAs is currently unknown. Here, we describe the identification of an OPDA-like molecule derived from a C20 fatty acid (FA) in the liverwort Marchantia polymorpha (Mp), which we term (5Z,8Z)-10-(4-oxo-5-((Z)-pent-2-en-1-yl)cyclopent-2-en-1-yl)deca-5,8-dienoic acid (C20-OPDA). This molecule accumulates upon wounding and, when applied exogenously, can activate known Coronatine Insensitive 1 (COI1) -dependent and -independent jasmonate responses. Furthermore, we identify a dn-OPDA-like molecule (Δ4-dn-OPDA) deriving from C20-OPDA and demonstrate it to be a ligand of the jasmonate coreceptor (MpCOI1-Mp Jasmonate-Zinc finger inflorescence meristem domain [MpJAZ]) in Marchantia. By analyzing mutants impaired in the production of LCPUFAs, we elucidate the major biosynthetic pathway of C20-OPDA and Δ4-dn-OPDA. Moreover, using a double mutant compromised in the production of both Δ4-dn-OPDA and dn-OPDA, we demonstrate the additive nature of these molecules in the activation of jasmonate responses. Taken together, our data identify a ligand of MpCOI1 and demonstrate LCPUFAs as a source of bioactive jasmonates that are essential to the immune response of M. polymorpha.Peer reviewe

    Identification of novel risk loci, causal insights, and heritable risk for Parkinson's disease: a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies

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    Background Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in Parkinson's disease have increased the scope of biological knowledge about the disease over the past decade. We aimed to use the largest aggregate of GWAS data to identify novel risk loci and gain further insight into the causes of Parkinson's disease. Methods We did a meta-analysis of 17 datasets from Parkinson's disease GWAS available from European ancestry samples to nominate novel loci for disease risk. These datasets incorporated all available data. We then used these data to estimate heritable risk and develop predictive models of this heritability. We also used large gene expression and methylation resources to examine possible functional consequences as well as tissue, cell type, and biological pathway enrichments for the identified risk factors. Additionally, we examined shared genetic risk between Parkinson's disease and other phenotypes of interest via genetic correlations followed by Mendelian randomisation. Findings Between Oct 1, 2017, and Aug 9, 2018, we analysed 7·8 million single nucleotide polymorphisms in 37 688 cases, 18 618 UK Biobank proxy-cases (ie, individuals who do not have Parkinson's disease but have a first degree relative that does), and 1·4 million controls. We identified 90 independent genome-wide significant risk signals across 78 genomic regions, including 38 novel independent risk signals in 37 loci. These 90 variants explained 16–36% of the heritable risk of Parkinson's disease depending on prevalence. Integrating methylation and expression data within a Mendelian randomisation framework identified putatively associated genes at 70 risk signals underlying GWAS loci for follow-up functional studies. Tissue-specific expression enrichment analyses suggested Parkinson's disease loci were heavily brain-enriched, with specific neuronal cell types being implicated from single cell data. We found significant genetic correlations with brain volumes (false discovery rate-adjusted p=0·0035 for intracranial volume, p=0·024 for putamen volume), smoking status (p=0·024), and educational attainment (p=0·038). Mendelian randomisation between cognitive performance and Parkinson's disease risk showed a robust association (p=8·00 × 10−7). Interpretation These data provide the most comprehensive survey of genetic risk within Parkinson's disease to date, to the best of our knowledge, by revealing many additional Parkinson's disease risk loci, providing a biological context for these risk factors, and showing that a considerable genetic component of this disease remains unidentified. These associations derived from European ancestry datasets will need to be followed-up with more diverse data. Funding The National Institute on Aging at the National Institutes of Health (USA), The Michael J Fox Foundation, and The Parkinson's Foundation (see appendix for full list of funding sources)

    Regulatory sites for splicing in human basal ganglia are enriched for disease-relevant information

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    Genome-wide association studies have generated an increasing number of common genetic variants associated with neurological and psychiatric disease risk. An improved understanding of the genetic control of gene expression in human brain is vital considering this is the likely modus operandum for many causal variants. However, human brain sampling complexities limit the explanatory power of brain-related expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) and allele-specific expression (ASE) signals. We address this, using paired genomic and transcriptomic data from putamen and substantia nigra from 117 human brains, interrogating regulation at different RNA processing stages and uncovering novel transcripts. We identify disease-relevant regulatory loci, find that splicing eQTLs are enriched for regulatory information of neuron-specific genes, that ASEs provide cell-specific regulatory information with evidence for cellular specificity, and that incomplete annotation of the brain transcriptome limits interpretation of risk loci for neuropsychiatric disease. This resource of regulatory data is accessible through our web server, http://braineacv2.inf.um.es/

    Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

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    Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODErn), to generate cause fractions and cause specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NC Ds) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72.5-74.1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 186% (17.9-19.6), and injuries 8.0% (7.7-8.2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22.7% (21.5-23.9), representing an additional 7.61 million (7. 20-8.01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7.9% (7.08.8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 222% (20.0-24.0) and the death rate by 31.8% (30.1-33.3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2.3% (0-5-4-0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13.7% (12.2-15.1) to 57.9 deaths (55.9-59.2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118.0% (88.8-148.6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36.4% (32.2-40.6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33.6% (31.2-36.1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respirator}, infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990 neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

    Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

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    Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress

    Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

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    Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030
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