A hybrid GIS and AHP approach for modelling actual and future forest fire risk under climate change accounting water resources attenuation role

none4siForest wildfires usually occur due to natural processes such as lightning and volcanic eruptions, but at the same time they are also an eect of uncontrolled and illegal anthropogenic activities. Dierent factors can influence forest wildfires, like the type of vegetation, morphology, climate, and proximity to human activities. A precise evaluation of forest fire issues and of the countermeasures needed to limit their impact could be satisfactory especially when forest fire risk (FFR) mapping is available. Here, we proposed an FFR evaluation methodology based on Geographic Information System (GIS) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The study area is the Campania region (Southern Italy) that, for the last 30 years, has been aected by numerous wildfires. The proposed methodology analyzed 12 factors, and AHP was used for weight assignment, oering a new approach to some parameters. The method divided the study area into five risk classes, from very low to very high. Validation with fire alerts showed a good correlation between observed and predicted fires (0.79 R2). Analyzing the climate projections, a future FFR for 2040 was also assessed. The proposed methodology represents a reliable screening tool to identify areas under forest fire risk, and can help authorities to direct preventive actions.openBusico G.; Giuditta E.; Kazakis N.; Colombani N.Busico, G.; Giuditta, E.; Kazakis, N.; Colombani, N

A hybrid GIS and AHP approach for modelling actual and future forest fire risk under climate change accounting water resources attenuation role

Forest wildfires usually occur due to natural processes such as lightning and volcanic eruptions, but at the same time they are also an eect of uncontrolled and illegal anthropogenic activities. Dierent factors can influence forest wildfires, like the type of vegetation, morphology, climate, and proximity to human activities. A precise evaluation of forest fire issues and of the countermeasures needed to limit their impact could be satisfactory especially when forest fire risk (FFR) mapping is available. Here, we proposed an FFR evaluation methodology based on Geographic Information System (GIS) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The study area is the Campania region (Southern Italy) that, for the last 30 years, has been aected by numerous wildfires. The proposed methodology analyzed 12 factors, and AHP was used for weight assignment, oering a new approach to some parameters. The method divided the study area into five risk classes, from very low to very high. Validation with fire alerts showed a good correlation between observed and predicted fires (0.79 R2). Analyzing the climate projections, a future FFR for 2040 was also assessed. The proposed methodology represents a reliable screening tool to identify areas under forest fire risk, and can help authorities to direct preventive actions

Management practices and M&A success

We study whether management practices determine merger and acquisition (M&A) success. We model management as an unobserved (latent) variable in a standard microeconomic model of the firm and derive firm-year management estimates. We validate these estimates against benchmark survey data on management practices and by using Monte Carlo simulation. We show that our measure is among the most important determinants of value creation in M&A deals, substantially increasing the predictive power of models that explain cumulative abnormal returns. Thus, we offer a measure of management practices that identifies the best-performing M&As. Our results are robust to the inclusion of acquirer fixed effects and many control variables, and to several other sensitivity tests. We identify the Q-theory as the key mechanism driving our results

Modelos de endemicidad a lo largo de un gradiente altitudinal en Sierra Nevada (España) y Lefka Ori (Creta, Grecia)

Aim: High mountains in the Mediterranean region of Europe are particularly rich in endemic vascular plants. We aimed to compare the altitudinal patterns of vascular plant species richness and the proportion of endemic species in two Mediterranean region: Lefka Ori on the island of Crete (Greece) and Sierra Nevada on the Iberian peninsula. Location: Sierra Nevada, Granada (Spain); Lefka Ori, Crete (Greece). Methods: Data from standardised permanent plots settings on summit sites (comprising eight plot sectors, covering the upeermost 10 altitudinal metres) of different elevations were used (GLORIA Multi-Summit approach; www.gloria.ac.at). Species numbers, rates of endemic species, and soils temperature were compared by means of ANCOVA and linear regression. Results: The two regions, though climatically similar, showed strikingly different patterns: In Sierra Nevada, the proportion of endemic vascular plants (species restricted to Sierra Nevada) showed a stepwise increase from the lowest to the highest summit. In contrast, the proportion of endemic species restricted to Crete was not significantly different between the four summits in Lefka Ori. In both regions the observed trends were largely consistent with the altitudinal distribution of the endemic species obtained from standard floras. Main conclusions: The geographic positions of the two regions, i.e. island versus mainland and the higher elevation of Sierra Nevada are suggested to be the primary causes of the observed differences. The high degree of endemism in the cold environments of Mediterranean mountains’ upper bioclimatic zones indicates a pronounced vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. A continued and intensified species monitoring in the mountains around the Mediterranean basin, therefore, should be considered as a priority research task.Objetivo: Las zonas de alta montaña en la región mediterránea europea son particularmente ricas en plantas vasculares endémicas. Nuestro objetivo es comparar los modelos altitudinales para la riqueza de plantas vasculares y la proporción de endemismos en dos regiones mediterráneas: Lefka Ori en la isla de Creta (Grecia) y Sierra Nevada en la Península Ibérica. Localización: Sierra Nevada, Granada (España); Lefka Ori, Creta (Grecia). Método: Los datos proceden de un muestreo estandarizado en varias cimas situadas a diferentes altitudes (GLORIA Multi-Summit approach; www.gloria.ac.at). El número de especies, tasas de endemicidad, y temperatura del suelo se compararon por medio de ANCOVA y regresión lineal. Resultados: Las dos regiones objeto de análisis, aunque similares climáticamente, muestran patrones llamativamente diferentes: en Sierra Nevada, la proporción de plantas vasculares endémicas (especies restringidas a Sierra Nevada) muestra un incremento gradual desde la cima más baja a la más alta. En contraste, la proporción de endemismos restringidos a Creta no fue significativamente diferente entre las cuatro cimas de Lefka Ori. Las tendencias observadas en ambas regiones fueron en gran parte consistentes con la distribución de las especies endémicas obtenida de las floras para cada región. Conclusiones principales: La posición geográfica de ambas regiones, por ejemplo. isla frente a continente, y la mayor elevación de Sierra Nevada se sugieren como las principales causas de las diferencias observadas. El alto grado de endemicidad en los ambientes fríos de las zonas bioclimáticas superiores de las montañas mediterráneas evidencia una marcada vulnerabilidad a los impactos del cambio climático. Por lo tanto, el seguimiento continuado e intensivo de las especies de montaña alrededor de la cuenca mediterránea, debería considerarse como una tarea investigadora prioritaria.He set up of the permanent plots and data collection was supported by the FP-5 project GLORIA-Europe (2001-2003) No EVK2-2000-00056 of the European Commission

A CFD-DEM solver to model bubbly flow. Part I: Model development and assessment in upward vertical pipes

[EN] In the computational modeling of two-phase flow, many uncertainties are usually faced in simulations and validations with experiments. This has traditionally made it difficult to provide a general method to predict the two-phase flow characteristics for any geometry and condition, even for bubbly flow regimes. Thus, we focus our research on studying in depth the bubbly flow modeling and validation from a critical point of view. The conditions are intentionally limited to scenarios where coalescence and breakup can be neglected, to concentrate on the study of bubble dynamics and its interaction with the main fluid. This study required the development of a solver for bubbly flow with higher resolution level than TFM and a new methodology to obtain the data from the simulation. Part I shows the development of a solver based on the CFD-DEM formulation. The motion of each bubble is computed individually with this solver and aspects as inhomogeneity, nonlinearity of the interfacial forces, bubble-wall interactions and turbulence effects in interfacial forces are taken into account. To develop the solver, several features that are not usually required for traditional CFD-DEM simulations but are relevant for bubbly flow in pipes, have been included. Models for the assignment of void fraction into the grid, seeding of bubbles at the inlet, pressure change influence on the bubble size and turbulence effects on both phases have been assessed and compared with experiments for an upward vertical pipe scenario. Finally, the bubble path for bubbles of different size have been investigated and the interfacial forces analyzed. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.The authors sincerely thank the ''Plan Nacional de I + D+ i" for funding the project MODEXFLAT ENE2013-48565-C2-1-P and ENE2013-48565-C2-2-P.Peña-Monferrer, C.; Monrós Andreu, G.; Chiva Vicent, S.; Martinez-Cuenca, R.; Muñoz-Cobo, JL. (2018). A CFD-DEM solver to model bubbly flow. Part I: Model development and assessment in upward vertical pipes. Chemical Engineering Science. 176:524-545. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ces.2017.11.005S52454517